Foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections

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Several nations have interfered in the 2024 United States elections. U.S. intelligence agencies have identified China, [1] [2] Iran, [3] [4] [5] and Russia [6] [7] [8] as the most pressing concerns, [9] with Russia being the most active threat. [10]

Contents

Interference has included propaganda, disinformation, and misinformation campaigns using inauthentic accounts and websites on social media and the internet; [1] [2] [7] [11] successful and unsuccessful attempts to hack presidential campaigns; [4] the promotion and denigration of specific candidates and causes; [6] and the posting of divisive content and conspiracy theories to cause domestic unrest and criticize the United States and democracy more broadly. [1] [2]

Background

Before the election, current and former U.S. officials stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election was likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI." [12]

In March 2021, the National Intelligence Council released a report that found Russia and Iran carried out operations to influence the 2020 election. It also stated that China "considered but did not deploy" influence efforts in 2020, [13] although it increased efforts by the 2022 midterms. [14] A declassified U.S. intelligence report released in December 2023 found with "high confidence" that a "diverse and growing group of foreign actors" including China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba had all interfered in the 2022 midterms with influence campaigns on social media to covertly advance the interests their respective nations, exacerbate social divisions, and sow doubt in democracy, voting, and the result of elections. [15]

In 2022, the Foreign Malign Influence Center was set up at the Intelligence Community Campus-Bethesda as a command hub to fight electoral disinformation surrounding the 2024 presidential election. [16]

Analysis

In a statement on September 12, 2024, Matthew G. Olsen head of the Justice Department's National Security Division warned that foreign interference is a "clear and present danger" in the lead up to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Among the nations he listed as posing a significant threat of interfering with the contest are Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea. [17] There are also indications Cuba is attempting to influence U.S. elections by targeting Spanish language social media users. [18] U.S. intelligence officials have described the efforts as part of broader efforts by authoritarian nations to use the internet to erode support for democracy. [1]

The Associated Press cites U.S. intelligence officials as describing Chinese interference as being more aggressive in recent months but overall cautious and nuanced, instead focusing on American policy towards Taiwan and undermining "confidence in elections, voting and the U.S. in general." Iran was also described as more aggressive than in the past, while Russia was described as remaining the top threat. [1] Iranian interference is described as attempting to tip the election against Trump, which is believed to be partly in response to Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani. However, Iran has also targeted the Biden and Harris campaigns, which The New York Times described as suggesting "a wider goal of sowing internal discord and discrediting the democratic system in the United States more broadly in the eyes of the world." [3] U.S. intelligence has described Russian interference as supporting Trump, viewing him as more skeptical towards arming Ukraine. [8] China, Russia, and Iran have all promoted disinformation criticizing the Democratic nominee for president. [2] [3] [8] Officials from the ODNI and FBI have stated that Russia, Iran, and China are using generative artificial intelligence tools to create fake and divisive text, photos, video, and audio content to foster anti-Americanism and engage in covert influence campaigns. China's efforts are primarily focused on down-ballot races. [19] The use of artificial intelligence was described as an accelerant rather than a revolutionary change to influence efforts. [20]

The scale of electoral disinformation has been described by experts as a "firehose of disinformation" and exceeding anything in prior elections. [21] Several social media platforms have scaled back efforts to remove disinformation on their platforms [12] following criticism from American conservatives who allege political bias. [22] The New York Times has described Elon Musk's X as "perhaps the single biggest factor in today's disinformation landscape" [21] after gutting most of the websites content moderation team and safety features. [22] Musk has repeatedly shared and posted "demonstrably false anti-Harris disinformation to his 200 million followers" according to a USA Today investigation, [22] has repeatedly posted false claims about the results of the 2020 election, and played "an outsize role in amplifying content promoted by Tenet Media" according to a researchers. [21] CISA has reportedly changed its strategy towards educating the American public about electoral disinformation instead of asking social media companies to take down false information. [22]

In advance of the 2024 election, American intelligence assessments found that Iran had covertly supported college protests against the war in Gaza using social media posing as students and having operatives offer financial assistance. [3] Pro-Israel groups have also spent large sums of money to support pro-Israel candidates against candidates critical of the Israeli government. [23] [24] Jordanian-American journalist Rami George Khouri wrote that "Such aggressive funding campaigns by AIPAC and other pro-Israeli forces may soon be perceived as another dimension of foreign interference in US elections, which has grown as a national concern since 2016." [25]

State-sponsored interference

China

This paragraph is an excerpt from Chinese interference in the 2024 United States elections.[ edit ]
The Chinese government has interfered in the 2024 United States elections through propaganda and disinformation campaigns, primarily linked to its Spamouflage influence operation. [26] The efforts come amidst larger foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections.

Iran

This paragraph is an excerpt from Iranian interference in the 2024 United States elections.[ edit ]
The Iranian government has interfered in the 2024 United States elections through social media efforts and hacking operations. [27] [28] Iranian interference has come amidst larger foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections. The efforts were identified as an effort to tip the race against former president Donald Trump through propaganda and disinformation campaigns. However, Iranian efforts have also targeted Joe Biden and Kamala Harris with similar attacks, which The New York Times stated suggested "a wider goal of sowing internal discord and discrediting the democratic system in the United States more broadly in the eyes of the world." [29]

Russia

This paragraph is an excerpt from Russian interference in the 2024 United States elections.[ edit ]
The Russian government has interfered in the 2024 United States elections through disinformation and propaganda campaigns [30] aimed at damaging Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and other Democrats while boosting the candidacy of Donald Trump and other candidates who support isolationism and undercutting support for Ukraine aid and NATO. [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] Russia's efforts represent the most active threat of foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections and follows Russia's previous pattern of spreading disinformation through fake social media accounts and right-wing YouTube channels [36] [37] in order to divide American society and foster anti-Americanism. [38] [39] On September 4, 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice indicted members of Tenet Media for having received $9.7 million as part of a covert Russian influence operation to co-opt American right-wing influencers to espouse pro-Russian content and conspiracy theories. Many of the followers of the related influencers were encouraged to steal ballots, intimidate voters, and remove or destroy ballot drop offs in the weeks leading up to the election. [40] [41]

Suspected state-sponsored interference

On August 28, 2024, a CNN investigation in collaboration with the Centre for Information Resilience found an orchestrated effort to influence voters through an orchestrated campaign "with hallmarks that could be consistent with a state-sponsored actor" highlighting 56 fake, pro-Trump accounts on X using stolen and altered images of "attractive young women" to espouse pro-Trump propaganda, conspiracy theories, and "anti-LGBTQ, anti-transgender, anti-vaccination, racist and xenophobic sentiments." [11]

See also

Notes

    Related Research Articles

    Disinformation is misleading content deliberately spread to deceive people, or to secure economic or political gain and which may cause public harm. Disinformation is an orchestrated adversarial activity in which actors employ strategic deceptions and media manipulation tactics to advance political, military, or commercial goals. Disinformation is implemented through attacks that "weaponize multiple rhetorical strategies and forms of knowing—including not only falsehoods but also truths, half-truths, and value judgements—to exploit and amplify culture wars and other identity-driven controversies."

    Russian espionage in the United States has occurred since at least the Cold War, and likely well before. According to the United States government, by 2007 it had reached Cold War levels.

    The People's Republic of China engages in information warfare (IW) through the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and other organizations affiliated or controlled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Laid out in the Chinese Defence White Paper of 2008, informatized warfare includes the utilization of information-based weapons and forces, including battlefield management systems, precision-strike capabilities, and technology-assisted command and control (C4ISR). The term also refers to propaganda and influence operations efforts by the Chinese state.

    State-sponsored Internet propaganda is Internet manipulation and propaganda that is sponsored by a state. States have used the Internet, particularly social media to influence elections, sow distrust in institutions, spread rumors, spread disinformation, typically using bots to create and spread contact. Propaganda is used internally to control populations, and externally to influence other societies.

    The Democratic National Committee cyber attacks took place in 2015 and 2016, in which two groups of Russian computer hackers infiltrated the Democratic National Committee (DNC) computer network, leading to a data breach. Cybersecurity experts, as well as the U.S. government, determined that the cyberespionage was the work of Russian intelligence agencies.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Countering Foreign Propaganda and Disinformation Act</span> 2016 American anti-propaganda legislation

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    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections</span>

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    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Clint Watts</span> Research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute

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    The firehose of falsehood, also known as firehosing, is a propaganda technique in which a large number of messages are broadcast rapidly, repetitively, and continuously over multiple channels without regard for truth or consistency. An outgrowth of Soviet propaganda techniques, the firehose of falsehood is a contemporary model for Russian propaganda under Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    Russian interference in the 2020 United States elections was a matter of concern at the highest level of national security within the United States government, in addition to the computer and social media industries. In 2020, the RAND Corporation was one of the first to release research describing Russia's playbook for interfering in U.S. elections, developed machine-learning tools to detect the interference, and tested strategies to counter Russian interference. In February and August 2020, United States Intelligence Community (USIC) experts warned members of Congress that Russia was interfering in the 2020 presidential election in then-President Donald Trump's favor. USIC analysis released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) in March 2021 found that proxies of Russian intelligence promoted and laundered misleading or unsubstantiated narratives about Joe Biden "to US media organizations, US officials, and prominent US individuals, including some close to former President Trump and his administration." The New York Times reported in May 2021 that federal investigators in Brooklyn began a criminal investigation late in the Trump administration into possible efforts by several current and former Ukrainian officials to spread unsubstantiated allegations about corruption by Joe Biden, including whether they had used Trump personal attorney Rudy Giuliani as a channel.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Conspiracy theories related to the Trump–Ukraine scandal</span> Dispute about Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. elections

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    Spamouflage, Dragonbridge, Spamouflage Dragon, Storm 1376, or Taizi Flood is an online propaganda and disinformation operation that uses a network of social media accounts to make posts in favor of the Chinese government and harass dissidents and journalists overseas since 2017. Beginning in the early 2020s, Spamouflage accounts also began making posts about American and Taiwanese politics. It is widely believed that the Chinese government, particularly the Ministry of Public Security, is behind the network. Spamouflage has increasingly used generative artificial intelligence for influence operations. The campaign has largely failed to receive views from real users, although it has attracted some organic engagement using new tactics.

    The Iranian government has interfered in the 2024 United States elections through social media efforts and hacking operations. Iranian interference has come amidst larger foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections. The efforts were identified as an effort to tip the race against former president Donald Trump through propaganda and disinformation campaigns. However, Iranian efforts have also targeted Joe Biden and Kamala Harris with similar attacks, which The New York Times stated suggested "a wider goal of sowing internal discord and discrediting the democratic system in the United States more broadly in the eyes of the world."

    The Russian government has interfered in the 2024 United States elections through disinformation and propaganda campaigns aimed at damaging Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and other Democrats while boosting the candidacy of Donald Trump and other candidates who support isolationism and undercutting support for Ukraine aid and NATO. Russia's efforts represent the most active threat of foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections and follows Russia's previous pattern of spreading disinformation through fake social media accounts and right-wing YouTube channels in order to divide American society and foster anti-Americanism. On September 4, 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice indicted members of Tenet Media for having received $9.7 million as part of a covert Russian influence operation to co-opt American right-wing influencers to espouse pro-Russian content and conspiracy theories. Many of the followers of the related influencers were encouraged to steal ballots, intimidate voters, and remove or destroy ballot drop offs in the weeks leading up to the election.

    The Chinese government has interfered in the 2024 United States elections through propaganda and disinformation campaigns, primarily linked to its Spamouflage influence operation. The efforts come amidst larger foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections.

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