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Agency overview | |
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Formed | 1979 |
Jurisdiction | United States Government |
Parent agency | Office of the Director of National Intelligence |
The National Intelligence Council (NIC), established in 1979 and reporting to the Director of National Intelligence, bridges the United States Intelligence Community (IC) with policy makers in the United States. The NIC produces the "Global Trends" report every four years beginning in 1997, for the incoming President of the United States. Their work is based on intelligence from a wide variety of sources that includes experts in academia and the private sector. NIC documents and reports which are used by policymakers, include the National Intelligence Estimate and the Global Trends reports delivered every four years. The NIC's goal is to provide policymakers with the best available information, that is unvarnished, unbiased and without regard to whether the analytic judgments conform to current U.S. policy.
One of the NIC's most important analytical projects is a Global Trends report produced for the incoming US president, which is usually delivered to the incoming president between Election Day and Inauguration Day. The Global Trends reports assess critical drivers and scenarios for global trends with an approximate time horizon of fifteen years. The Global Trends analysis provides a basis for long-range strategic policy assessment for the White House and the Intelligence Community. In 1997, the Office of the NIC Director released the first Global Trends report, "Global Trends 2010", [1] and in March 2021, their most recent report, "NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World". [2]
When Walter Bedell Smith became Director of National Intelligence in 1950, he established Office of National Estimates (ONE), whose sole purpose was to produce National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs). There were two components in ONE, a staff which drafted the estimates and a senior body, the Board of National Estimates, which reviewed the estimates, coordinated the judgments with other agencies, and negotiated over their final form. [3] The ONE consisted of a group of intelligence professionals, complemented by retired military officers, diplomats, and academics. Though ONE, which reported to the DCI, was officially outside of the CIA, many ONE members came from the agency. [4]
The National Intelligence Council (NIC), which was established in 1979, also reports to the Director of National Intelligence. The NIC bridges the United States Intelligence Community (IC) with policy makers in the United States, according to a February 2, 2007 DNI report. [5]
The report combines "traditional national security challenges" with "social trends that have clear security implications". [6]
In 2011, NIC members included "18 senior analysts and national security policy experts", who were appointed by the Director of National Intelligence. The NIC support the work of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the National Security Council. Congress may at times request that the NIC prepare "specific estimates and other analytical products" to inform "consideration of legislation", according to a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report. [7] The NIC also "provides the U.S. intelligence community's best judgments on crucial international issues". [7]
The NIC has a Chairman and Vice Chairman, as well as a Vice Chairman for Evaluation, a Director of Strategic Plans and Outreach, a Director of Analysis and Production Staff, a Special Adviser, and National Intelligence Officers (NIOs) and Deputy National Intelligence Officer for different subject matters including Africa, East Asia, Europe, Latin America, Near East, South Asia, Russia and Eurasia. Issues include economics and global issues, science and technology, intelligence assurance, military issues, transnational threats, warning, weapons of mass destruction and nuclear proliferation, and cyber.
The first director of the NIC was Richard Lehman, (1979–1981) who served during the tenure of then President Jimmy Carter.
One of the NIC's most important analytical projects is a Global Trends report produced for the incoming US president which is usually delivered to the incoming president between Election Day and Inauguration Day. The Global Trends reports assess critical drivers and scenarios for global trends with an approximate time horizon of fifteen years. While the Global Trends analysis provides a basis for long-range strategic policy assessment for the White House and the intelligence community, it is proscribed by law to not provide any policy recommendations. [8]
The goal of the report is to examine "longer-term impacts" of "current changes" on the "world of the future"—twenty years ahead. [8]
The first Global Trends report was released in 1997, [1] and the most recent, "NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World'" was released in March 2021. [2] The NIC's Strategic Futures Group, under the direction of Maria Langan-Riekhof, led the publication of the "Global Trends 2040" report, working with 18 organizations that make up the United States Intelligence Community. This includes the National Security Agency and C.I.A. [8]
Previous reports include "Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress" in January 2017, [9] "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" in 2012, [10] "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World", "Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future", "Global Trends 2010" in 1997, [1] and "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts" in December 2000. [11]
In December 2004, the NIC published a report on its 2020 Project, titled "Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future". [12] Developed in consultation with "non-governmental experts around the world," the report examined possible scenarios evolving out of global trends shaping international politics and economics. Particular emphasis was put on the increasing role of China and India on the global stage, as well as the evolution of radical Islamic terrorism worldwide. [13] Considerations are made for the potential proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and the use of biological and chemical weapons in future terrorist attacks.
At the beginning the Presidency of Donald Trump in January 2017, the Obama administration released its report titled, "Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress", which "highlighted the risk of a pandemic and the vast economic disruption it could cause." [6] [9]
In their April 15, 2021 article about the March 2021 report, "NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World", the New York Times editorial board cited experts in Washington saying "they do not recall a gloomier" NIC Global Trends report. [8] The Times listed headings such as "Competitive Coexistence", "Separate Silos", "Tragedy and Mobilization", and "A World Adrift" and questions if we will heed the report's warnings "at a time when states and societies are turning inward and political discourse has become poisonous." [8] According to the report, "Nationalism and polarization have been on the rise in many countries, especially exclusionary nationalism. Efforts to contain and manage the virus have reinforced nationalist trends globally as some states turned inward to protect their citizens and sometimes cast blame on marginalized groups." [2] : 12 [6]
Name | Term start | Term end | President |
---|---|---|---|
Richard Lehman | 1979 | 1981 | Jimmy Carter |
Henry Rowen | July 8, 1981 | September 1983 | Ronald Reagan |
Robert Gates | September 1983 | April 18, 1986 | |
Frank Horton III | September 1986 | September 1987 | |
Fritz Ermarth | 1988 | January 20, 1993 | |
George H. W. Bush | |||
Joseph Nye | February 20, 1993 | September 15, 1994 | Bill Clinton |
Christine Williams | September 15, 1994 | June 1, 1995 | |
Richard N. Cooper | June 1, 1995 | January 1997 | |
John C. Gannon | July 22, 1997 | June 2001 | |
George W. Bush | |||
John L. Helgerson | August 3, 2001 | April 26, 2002 | |
Robert Hutchings | February 2003 | January 2005 | |
Thomas Fingar | June 13, 2005 | December 1, 2008 | |
Peter Lavoy | December 1, 2008 | July 6, 2009 | |
Barack Obama | |||
Chris Kojm | July 6, 2009 | July 2014 | |
Greg Treverton | September 8, 2014 | October 28, 2016 | |
Amy McAuliffe | October 28, 2016 | October 27, 2019 | |
Donald Trump | |||
Neil Wiley | October 28, 2019 | January 21, 2021 | |
Avril Haines (incumbent) | January 21, 2021 | Present | Joe Biden |
The United States National Security Council (NSC) is the principal forum used by the president of the United States for consideration of national security, military, and foreign policy matters. Based in the White House, it is part of the Executive Office of the President of the United States, and composed of senior national security advisors and Cabinet officials.
The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) is a combat support agency within the United States Department of Defense whose primary mission is collecting, analyzing, and distributing geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) in support of national security. Initially known as the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) from 1996 to 2003, it is a member of the United States Intelligence Community.
The Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) is an intelligence agency in the United States Department of State. Its central mission is to provide all-source intelligence and analysis in support of U.S. diplomacy and foreign policy. INR is the oldest civilian element of the U.S. Intelligence Community and among the smallest, with roughly 300 personnel. Though lacking the resources and technology of other U.S. intelligence agencies, it is "one of the most highly regarded" for the quality of its work.
National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) are United States federal government documents that are the authoritative assessment of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) on intelligence related to a particular national security issue. NIEs are produced by the National Intelligence Council and express the coordinated judgments of the United States Intelligence Community, the group of 18 U.S. intelligence agencies. NIEs are classified documents prepared for policymakers.
The National Intelligence Board (NIB), formerly the National Foreign Intelligence Board and before that the United States Intelligence Board is a body of senior U.S. Intelligence Community leaders currently led by the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). The Board is tasked with reviewing and approving National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs).
The Jamestown Foundation is a Washington, D.C.-based conservative defense policy think tank. Founded in 1984 as a platform to support Soviet defectors, its stated mission today is to inform and educate policy makers about events and trends, which it regards as being of current strategic importance to the United States. Jamestown publications focus on China, Russia, Eurasia, and global terrorism.
Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was published in 2007 and is the fourth in a series of reports intended to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The report is the largest and most detailed summary of the climate change situation ever undertaken, produced by thousands of authors, editors, and reviewers from dozens of countries, citing over 6,000 peer-reviewed scientific studies. People from over 130 countries contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, which took six years to produce. Contributors to AR4 included more than 2,500 scientific expert reviewers, more than 800 contributing authors, and more than 450 lead authors.
Peak oil is the point at which oil production, sometimes including unconventional oil sources, hits its maximum. Predicting the timing of peak oil involves estimation of future production from existing oil fields as well as future discoveries. The most influential production model is Hubbert peak theory, first proposed in the 1950s. The effect of peak oil on the world economy remains controversial.
International Futures (IFs) is a global integrated assessment model designed to help with thinking strategically and systematically about key global systems. It is housed at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Initially created by Barry B. Hughes of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver in Colorado, the model is free for public use in both its online and downloadable forms.
Climate change is impacting the environment and human population of the United Kingdom (UK). The country's climate is becoming warmer, with drier summers and wetter winters. The frequency and intensity of storms, floods, droughts and heatwaves is increasing, and sea level rise is impacting coastal areas. The UK is also a contributor to climate change, having emitted more greenhouse gas per person than the world average. Climate change is having economic impacts on the UK and presents risks to human health and ecosystems.
Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. Scenarios and pathways are created by scientists to survey any long term routes and explore the effectiveness of mitigation and helps us understand what the future may hold this will allow us to envision the future of human environment system. Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change. Economic and energy modelling can be used to analyze and quantify the effects of such drivers.
The Global Strategic Trends Programme was established in 2001 to research and forecast potential trends that shape and inform the future strategic context. It is published by the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) which is under the UK's Strategic Command based in Shrivenham, Wiltshire.
Climate change in Europe has resulted in an increase in temperature of 2.3 °C (2022) in Europe compared to pre-industrial levels. Europe is the fastest warming continent in the world. Europe's climate is getting warmer due to anthropogenic activity. According to international climate experts, global temperature rise should not exceed 2 °C to prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change; without reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, this could happen before 2050. Climate change has implications for all regions of Europe, with the extent and nature of impacts varying across the continent.
Renewables supply a quarter of energy in Turkey, including heat and electricity. Some houses have rooftop solar water heating, and hot water from underground warms many spas and greenhouses. In parts of the west hot rocks are shallow enough to generate electricity as well as heat. Wind turbines, also mainly near western cities and industry, generate a tenth of Turkey’s electricity. Hydropower, mostly from dams in the east, is the only modern renewable energy which is fully exploited. Hydropower averages about a fifth of the country's electricity, but much less in drought years. Apart from wind and hydro, other renewables; such as geothermal, solar and biogas; together generated almost a tenth of Turkey’s electricity in 2022.
Adherents of Islam constitute the world's second largest religious group. A projection by the PEW suggests that Muslims numbered approximately 1.9 billion followers in 2020. Studies in the 21st century suggest that, in terms of percentage and worldwide spread, Islam is the fastest-growing major religion in the world, mostly because Muslims have more children than other major religious groups. Most Muslims are either of two denominations: Sunni or Shia. Islam is the majority religion in several subregions: Central Asia, Western Asia, North Africa, West Africa, the Sahel, and the Middle East. The diverse Asia-Pacific region contains the highest number of Muslims in the world, easily surpassing the combined Middle East and North Africa.
Vehicles that are powered by fossil fuels, such as gasoline (petrol), diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil are set to be phased out by a number of countries. It is one of the three most important parts of the general fossil fuel phase-out process, the others being the phase-out of fossil fuel power plants for electricity generation and decarbonisation of industry.
The artificial intelligence (AI) industry in China is a rapidly developing multi-billion dollar industry. As of 2021, the artificial intelligence market is worth about RMB 150 billion, and is projected to reach RMB 400 billion by 2025. The roots of China's AI development started in the late 1970s following economic reforms emphasizing science and technology as the country's primary productive force.
Mathew James Burrows is an American intelligence and strategic foresight expert and author.
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