Independent voter

Last updated

An independent voter, often also called an unaffiliated voter or non-affiliated voter in the United States, is a voter who does not align themselves with a political party. An independent is variously defined as a voter who votes for candidates on issues rather than on the basis of a political ideology or partisanship; [1] a voter who does not have long-standing loyalty to, or identification with, a political party; [2] [3] a voter who does not usually vote for the same political party from election to election; [4] [5] or a voter who self-describes as an independent. [6]

Contents

Many voting systems outside of the United States, including the British parliamentary system, do not utilize a party affiliation system as part of their voter registration process; rather, participation in party affairs is based on enrolling as a member within the party itself, and the number of party members is much smaller than the party's total electorate (for example, the Social Democratic Party of Germany, which received 12 million votes in the 2021 German federal election, only has 400,000 members). The closest equivalent is the so-called "floater voters" or swing votes, who do not consistently vote for a particular party. [7]

Definition

The earliest concept of independents is of a person whose political choices, by definition, were made based on issues and candidates (due to lack of party affiliation). Furthermore, early studies of voting behavior conclusively demonstrated that self-identified independent voters are less interested in specific elections than partisan voters, poorly informed about issues and candidates, and less active politically. However, a contrary view emerged: The independent usually voted on the basis of deeply ingrained beliefs, attitudes and loyalties, and is more like the strongly partisan voter than any other voter (or the idealized "independent"). [6] [8] [9] [10] [11]

By the 1960s, scholars attempted to define the independent based on behavior, rather than party identification or loyalty. Focusing on ticket splitters, these studies depicted an independent voter who had the same level of political interest as strong partisans and who voted largely based on the issues with which they strongly agreed or disagreed. [4] However, by focusing on voting behavior, this definition of the independent ignored non-voters. Critics claimed that the independent voter is merely a subset of the larger set of independents, which should also include non-voters. [1] Studies also found that voting and not-voting is deeply affected by the particular candidate running in an election. Voting, therefore, is more reflective of what candidate is running—and therefore a poor measure of partisanship. [6] [12] [13]

More recently, scholars focused on self-identification as a good measure of a person's political independence. The value of self-identification as a measure of a person's political independence or partisanship is that it is seen as a proxy for the behavior which should be exhibited by the independent voter. Additionally, self-identification could be easily captured either with a nominal question ("Do you self-identify with an existing political party?", a question which is answered with a "yes" or a "no"), or by a structured ordinal question ("Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or what?"). [14] The first analyses of this measure of political independence found that there were significant differences between those individuals who self-identified as "independent" and those who listed "no preference" as to party identification. [15] Individuals who expressed "no preference" usually exhibited low levels of interest in politics, low levels of knowledge about the candidates and issues, low frequency of voting, and less confidence in their ability to influence politics. [16]

Although some scholars continue to conclude that self-description is the best measure of partisanship or independence, [2] a number of studies have found debilitating problems with this measure. The nature of the voter registration system and the appearance of the ballot, the way the question reinforces a unidimensional interpretation of the political arena, the measure's failure to function in a multi-party political system, the measure's confusion of the theoretical relationship between partisanship and the intent to vote, question wording errors which confuse a social group with a political party, failure to predict policy (versus candidate) preferences, question order, and failure to measure partisanship accurately when there are sizeable differences in party size all confound accurate measurement of partisanship and independence using this measure. [17] [18] [19] [20] Even the nature of a survey instrument as a measure of partisanship and independence has been called into question. [21]

Terminology

There are several synonyms for the term independent voter:

Partisan influence

To many scholars, independence seemed the flip-side of partisanship. Identifying the variables which are significant in creating partisanship would, therefore, identify the variables which are significant in creating political independence. Subsequently, a very large body of scholarship has emerged which has attempted to analyze partisanship.

Parents appear to be a primary source of political socialization and partisanship. Much of the theoretical basis for this hypothesis emerged from the fields of child psychology and social learning, which studied the ways in which children are socialized and values inculcated in them. Studies of political partisanship have found that partisanship is strongest when both parents have the same political loyalties, these loyalties are strong, both parents have similarly strong party loyalties, and parental partisanship accords with socio-economic status (for example, the wealthy are Republicans or the poor are Labour supporters). [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32]

Social groups are another source of partisanship. Friends, relatives, and neighbors often have the same partisan loyalties and strengths as one's parents. The more homogeneous the social group, the more likely the individual will be to develop strong partisan loyalties. When social group homogeneousness is low, the individual is likely to be less strongly socialized into partisan politics and more likely to seek a different party loyalty (whether by disengaging from partisanship or switching partisan loyalties). [1] [27] [31] [32] [33] [34]

Life-cycle and generational effects also contribute to partisanship. Initially, studies indicated that the operative variable was the "life-cycle." That is, a person's partisan attachments naturally grew stronger over time as weak socialization became strong and strong socialization became stronger. Additionally, theorists suggested that older voters favored certain policy preferences (such as strong government pensions and old-age health insurance) which led them to (strongly) favor one party over another. [35] Later studies showed that the initial strong effect of the life-cycle variable was mitigated by generational effects. Party identification seemed strongly affected by certain formative generational events (such as the Civil War, the Great Depression or the social upheaval of the 1960s). Several studies concluded that generational effects were distinct from life-cycle effects, and that both factors were significant in creating (or not) partisanship. [36] [37] [38] [30] [39]

But if generational events affected partisanship, some scholars hypothesized that lesser political, social, and economic issues might as well. Conceding that major "shocks" such as the Great Depression could realign or dealing partisanship, some scholars reasoned that a series of smaller shocks over time could also dramatically influence the direction and strength of partisanship. Many scholars became convinced that partisanship was not bedrock but shifting sand. Important childhood events (such as becoming aware of a presidential campaign) as well as events in adulthood (such as recessions, war, or shifting racial policies) could also affect the level of partisanship. [28] [40] The concept of "retrospective voting"—in which the voter makes political judgments based on the party-in-power's performance over the past few years—deeply influenced studies of partisanship. [31] [41] [42] [43] [34] Applying the concept of retrospectiveness to partisanship, more recent analyses have concluded that retrospective and prospective political party success play a significant role in the direction and strength of partisanship. [29] [44] [45] [46]

Both repeated "minor shocks" and retrospective/prospective assessments of political party success are micro-level, rather than macro-level, variables. [47] That is, while very important in creating political independence, they affect individuals only. For example, John may come to believe that Party A is no longer effective and become an independent. Yet, Mary may come to the conclusion that Party A is still effective. Both voters see the same successes and failures, but their retrospective and prospective calculus of success varies.

This has led some scholars to conclude that independence is not the flip-side of partisanship. Rather, partisanship and political independence may be two distinct variables, each of which must be measured separately and using different theoretical constructs. [11] [37] [42] [48] Other scholars have concluded that the causal direction of partisanship must be questioned. While it has long been assumed that partisanship and the strength of partisanship drive attitudes on issues, [49] these scholars conclude that the causal relationship is reversed. [47]

Increase of independent voters

In the United States

Using the self-identification method of measuring political independence, surveys found an increasing number of independent voters beginning in 1966. [38] [42] In 1952, when modern polling on the issue began, the number of independent voters nationwide was 22 percent. By 1976, the number had risen more than half, to 36 percent of the electorate. Regionally, the rise of the independent voter was even more apparent. In the non-Deep South, the number of independent voters had risen from 22 percent to 37 percent. But in the Deep South, the number of independents rose steeply from 14 percent in 1952 to 32 percent in 1976 (and would rise even further, to 35 percent, by 1984). [2] [50] [51]

Gallup polls data shows independent leaning voters represent the majority of American voters, [52] a trend since 2004.

Although the number of self-identified independents has fallen slightly in the 1990s and 2000s, about 30 percent of American voters still say they are independents (as measured by self-identification). [53]

..If one distinguishes between respondents who are adamant about their independence and those who concede closeness to a party. ... In short, the vast majority of self-defined Independents are not neutral but partisan—a bit bashful about admitting it, but partisan nevertheless. Once this is recognized, the proportion of the electorate that is truly neutral between the two parties is scarcely different now than from what it was in the Eisenhower era. Moreover, because these "pure Independents" now are less inclined to vote, their share of the voting population is, if anything, a bit smaller now than in the 1950s and 1960s. [54]

Several analyses conclude that (whether through survey error or misconceptualization of the nature of political independence) the number of independent voters has remained relatively unchanged in the United States since the 1950s. [8] [11] [18]

Reasons

In the United States, voter identification as an independent varies widely across regions as well as states. Inter-party competition, the organizational strength of each party, electoral variables (such as the ease of voter registration, voting procedures, the timing of primaries and elections, etc.), and even turnout seem to greatly affect the number of independents in a state. [43] [50] The effect of these variables is not uniform across all the states, either. [50]

In Europe

In the British parliamentary system, a similar concept of a "floating voter" is used to describe voters who can change their voting alignment and freedom from political parties. [7] This term may also be applied in referendum votes, such as in the vote for "Brexit". [55]

Dutch politics also uses the term floating voter to describe party non-affiliation. [56] [57]

In Iran

There is a large swing vote in Iran, known as "Party of the Wind" (Persian : حزب باد, romanized: Ḥezb-e Bād), or "grey vote" (Persian : رأی خاکستری, romanized: Ra'ye Ḵākestarí), which can be rapidly excited. [58] [59]

Impact

Because independent voters do not have strong affectional ties to political parties, scholars who adhere to the self-identification method for measuring political independence theorize that independents may be more susceptible to the appeals of third-party candidates. It has also been suggested that the more independent voters, the more volatile elections and the political system will be. [10] Others hypothesize that the amount of ticket-splitting will increase, leading to greater parity between the strongest political parties, an increase in the number of minor political parties (particularly "down-ballot" in state, county or local races), or possibly even a breakdown in the political party system. [2]

Scholars who hold to the behavioral measure of determining political independence point out that there has been little change in the level of ticket-splitting since the initial upsurge in the 1950s. They also posit that, when independents who strongly lean toward one party are included in the same group as that party's strong partisans, there has also been little change in party loyalty since the 1950s. For example, partisan Republicans and independents who lean Republican tend to vote for Republican candidates just as frequently in the 1990s as they did in the 1950s. [3] In the United States, the tendency of both strong and weak partisans to vote a straight ticket in down-ballot races is even stronger than it is for presidential and congressional races. [2]

Many scholars also say that partisanship is only one of many variables which predict voting choice. A decline in partisanship may have little to no impact on election outcomes, and much depends on fluctuations in these other factors. [1] [4] [6] [8] [60]

Realigning elections

For more than half a century, the concept of a realigning election—a dramatic shift in the electoral coalition supporting the existing political system—has been an important one in political theory. First enunciated by V. O. Key, Jr. in 1955, [61] the theory of realigning elections suggested that certain "critical elections" created sudden, massive shifts in the electorate. The political party and policies of the status quo were changed, and a new governing coalition installed which would rule for decades until the next critical election. The theory of critical elections fit well with what scholars knew about generational effects and the emerging literature on "major shocks" as a variable in determining the existence, direction, and strength of partisanship. It also helped explain the radical shifts in national politics which occurred irregularly in American history. Scholars also hypothesized that realigning elections rejuvenated public support for the political system, which helped explain the relative stability of American political structures. [32] [62] In time, scholars refined the theory somewhat. The concept of "secular realignment" was developed to account for gradual shifts in politics which had similar effects (eventually) to a critical realigning election. Some studies concluded that "secular realignment" came in short, jerky, periods called "punctuations." [63] [64] Initially, the concept of a realigning election was monolithic, that is, the effects were believed to be national in effect. But beginning in the 1980s, political scientists began to conclude that realigning elections could occur on sub-national levels (such as regions or even within states). [38] [45] [64] [65]

But with the "rise of the independent voter" and no realigning election, scholars developed the theory of the "dealigning election." In the dealigning election, all political parties lose support as partisanship decreases and political independence rises. Split-ticket voting and issue-oriented voting increase, leading to political volatility. Divided government (one party controls the executive branch, while another controls the legislature) becomes the norm. [38] [42] [45] [51] [66]

A number of scholars have dismissed the theory of realignment and dealignment, however. They argue that the concept is vague and the data do not support mass change in electoral behavior. [67] The large number of qualifications which must be made to the theory of critical elections has rendered it useless, it is argued. [68] The theory of secular realignment has been particularly criticized. The replacement of elderly voters (who die) with a new generation of voters (who come of age and are eligible to vote) is normal, not a unique and irregular "punctuation" or "surge," it is claimed. [37] [69] Still other scholars claim there are no regional dealignment variations [70] while others argue that the concept of realignment and dealignment is no longer useful in an era in which political parties are no longer very important in the political system. [71]

Impact of dealignment

Scholars argue that political parties play a critical supportive role in democracies. Parties regulate the type and number of people seeking election, mobilize voters and enhance turnout, and provide the coalition-building structure essential for office-holders to govern. Parties also serve as critical reference groups for voters, framing issues and providing and filtering information. These functions, it is claimed cannot otherwise be accomplished, and democracies collapse without them. Only political parties serve these roles. [10] [72]

Dealignment—the rise in the number of independent voters—has an extremely deleterious effect on democracy, these scholars claim. Dealignment leads to the rise of candidate-centered elections in which parties and ideologies play little part. Without parties, candidates rely ever-more heavily on mass media for communication, political action committees (PACs) for funds, special interest groups for staff, and political consultants for expertise. The increasing reliance on mass communication leads to a withering of political discourse as the sound bite and an emphasis on the horse-race aspect of politics becomes the norm. This limits the amount and kind of information the public receives, leading to less choice for voters. When voters can stay at home and watch television rather than participate in civic life, the public no longer perceives the need to become involved in democracy—and so the civic life of the democracy withers. As PACs and interest groups become more important, the number of people speaking to the public, providing political information and different political choices and views, declines. Additionally, PAC and interest group spokespeople may not be representative of the public or the groups they claim to speak for, creating disenfranchisement of various (often minority) groups. As independent voting and ticket-splitting rise, parties seek to insulate themselves from the whipsaw effect of elections. The power of incumbency becomes increasingly important, and accessibility by the public declines. Parties seek increasingly moderate positions in order to stay electorally viable, further limiting political choice ("both parties look and sound the same"). As the parties distance themselves from the average voter and seem to offer limited policy options, dealignment worsens. As ideology plays less and less a part in elections, it becomes more and more difficult for parties to forge coalitions of like-minded officeholders. Governmental deadlock becomes common, further encouraging independent voting as citizens perceive "their" party to be ineffective. As ticket-splitting rises, divided government becomes the norm, making it even more difficult for office-holders to enact and implement policies. Politics becomes increasingly volatile, with first one party and then another governing. Although parties once held politicians accountable for their actions, their increasing irrelevance in politics leads to a decline in accountability (and thus even less responsiveness and less democracy). The "Imperial Presidency" becomes more important, since single officeholders with great power become the only politicians capable of governing. [73] [74]

Other scholars have concluded that dealignment has not harmed democracy. Political parties have adapted to the realities of large numbers of independent voters, it is argued. The candidate-centered election has actually revitalized parties, and led to new party structures and behaviors which have allowed parties to survive in the age of mass communication. [75] A minority view, however, suggests that the evidence for a resurgence of political parties too equivocal, and that scholars lack the theoretical concepts to make such judgments. [76]

Yet another strain of thought has concluded that "realignment" is occurring. The slow "secular realignment" is not yet over, these scholars say. Regional differences in the level and impact of dealignment simply point up the fact that major shifts in political coalitions are occurring. Slowly but surely, these studies conclude, realignment is happening and will be obvious within a generation. These scholars argue that the surge in independent voters which began in the 1960s has ended, and that there are distinct signs that partisanship is on the rise again. [66]

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Sorauf and Beck, Party Politics in America, 1988.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Flanigan and Zingale, Political Behavior of the American Electorate, 1988.
  3. 1 2 Wolfinger, "The Promising Adolescence of Campaign Surveys," in Campaigns and Elections American Style, 1995.
  4. 1 2 3 Key, The Responsible Electorate, 1966.
  5. ↑ DeVries and Tarrance, The Ticket Splitter, 1972.
  6. 1 2 3 4 Campbell, Converse, Miller and Stokes, The American Voter, 1960.
  7. 1 2 Butler, David; Stokes, Donald (1969-06-18). Political Change in Britain: Forces Shaping Electoral Choice. Springer. ISBN   9781349001408.
  8. 1 2 3 Keith; Magleby; Nelson; Orr; Westlye; Wolfinger (1992). The Myth of the Independent Voter.
  9. ↑ Petrocik, "An Analysis of Intransitivities in the Index of Party Identification," Political Methodology, Summer 1974.
  10. 1 2 3 Hershey, Party Politics in America, 2007.
  11. 1 2 3 Dennis, "Political Independence in America, Part I: On Being an Independent Partisan Supporter," British Journal of Political Science, January 1988.
  12. ↑ Ladd and Hadley, "Party Definition and Party Differentiation," Public Opinion Quarterly, Spring 1973.
  13. ↑ Brody and Page, "Comment: Assessment of Policy Voting," American Political Science Review, June 1972; Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections, 1981; Page and Jones, "Reciprocal Effects of Policy Preferences, Party Loyalties and the Vote," American Political Science Review, December 1979.
  14. ↑ Backstrom and Hursh-César, Survey Research, 1981.
  15. ↑ Miller and Wattenberg, "Measuring Party Identification: Independent or No Partisan Preference?", American Journal of Political Science, February 1983.
  16. ↑ More recent research has found that individuals expressing "no preference" but who have moderate to high levels of political interest behave more like those self-describing themselves as "independents" than they do others who self-describe as "no preference." Wattenberg, The Decline of American Political Parties, 1952-1996, 1998.
  17. ↑ Finkel and Scarrow, "Party Identification and Party Enrollment: The Difference and the Consequences," Journal of Politics, June 1985; Green, Palmquist, and Schickler, Partisan Hearts and Minds, 2004; Clarke and Kornberg, "Support for the Canadian Progressive Conservative Party Since 1988: The Impact of Economic Evaluations and Economic Issues," Canadian Journal of Political Science, March 1992; Converse and Pierce, "Partisanship and the Party System," Political Behavior, September 1992; Alvarez, "The Puzzle of Party Identification: Dimensionality of an Important Concept," American Politics Research, October 1990; Bishop, Tuchfarber, and Oldendick, "Change in the Structure of American Political Attitudes: The Nagging Question of Question Wording," American Journal of Political Science, May 1978; Bartle, "Improving the Measurement of Party Identification in Britain," in British Elections & Parties Review, 1999.
  18. 1 2 Johnston, "Party Identification Measures in the Anglo-American Democracies: A National Survey Experiment," American Journal of Political Science, May 1992.
  19. ↑ Survey question order is still a vexatious issue. Some studies conclude it biases results, and creates a survey artifact which shows large numbers of independents. See: Heath and Pierce, "It Was Party Identification All Along: Question Order Effects on Reports of Party Identification in Britain," Electoral Studies, June 1992. Other studies conclude that survey order has no effect. See: McAllister and Watternberg, "Measuring Levels of Party Identification: Does Question Order Matter?", Public Opinion Quarterly, Summer 1995.
  20. ↑ Some studies draw the conclusion that a unidimensional concept of partisanship is nevertheless accurate. See: Green, "On the Dimensionality of Public Sentiment Toward Partisan and Ideological Groups," American Journal of Political Science, August 1988.
  21. ↑ In one study, scholars found wide differences in survey respondents' abilities to recall political ideologies and apply them to questions about how they feel about policy issues of the day. Independents, it was suggested, have a lower level of ability to apply ideological tools of assessment to policy issues. The survey instrument, with its focus on making snap judgments, may therefore falsely measure the level of political independence. See: Huckfeldt, Levine, Morgan, and Sprague, "Accessibility and the Political Utility of Partisan and Ideological Orientations," American Journal of Political Science, July 1999.
  22. ↑ Steve Bousquet (November 20, 2015). "The Florida Voter: Dramatic growth of 'no party affiliation' reshapes Florida politics". Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald Tallahassee Bureau.
  23. ↑ Rhodes, George (August 6, 2015). "In Mass., there's even a Pizza Party". Sun Chronicle.
  24. ↑ "Massachusetts Directory of Political Parties and Designations". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.
  25. ↑ "Vote by Mail Procedures Manual" (PDF). sos.oregon.gov . Salem, OR: Elections Division. March 2020. p. 60. Retrieved October 17, 2021. An elector who has chosen not to be a member of any political party as indicated on the voter registration card.
  26. ↑ Beck and Jennings, "Parents As 'Middlepersons' in Political Socialization," Journal of Politics, February 1975; Hess and Torney, The Development of Political Attitudes in Children, 1967; Beck and Jennings, "Family Traditions, Political Periods, and the Development of Partisan Orientations," Journal of Politics, August 1991.
  27. 1 2 Bandura, Social Learning Theory, 1977; Chaffee, McLeod and Wackman, "Family Communication Patterns and Adolescent Participation," in Socialization to Politics: A Reader, 1973.
  28. 1 2 Niemi and Jennings, "Issues and Inheritance in the Formation of Party Identification," American Journal of Political Science, November 1991.
  29. 1 2 Achen, "Parental Socialization and Rational Party Identification," Journal of Political Behavior,June 2002.
  30. 1 2 Knoke and Hout, "Social and Demographic Factors in American Political Party Affiliations, 1952-72," American Sociological Review, October 1974.
  31. 1 2 3 Giles and Hertz, "Racial Threat and Partisan Identification," American Political Science Review, June 1994.
  32. 1 2 3 Campbell, "The Young and the Realigning: A Test of the Socialization Theory of Realignment," Public Opinion Quarterly, Summer 2002.
  33. ↑ Goldberg, "Social Determinism and Rationality As Bases of Party Identification," American Political Science Review, March 1969; Huddy, "From Social to Political Identity: A Critical Examination of Social Identity Theory," Political Psychology, March 2001; Greene, "Understanding Party Identification: A Social Identity Approach," Political Psychology, June 1999.
  34. 1 2 Finkel and Opp, "Party Identification and Participation in Collective Political Action," Journal of Politics, May 1991.
  35. ↑ Converse, The Dynamics of Party Support, 1976.
  36. ↑ Abramson, "Developing Party Identification: A Further Examination of Life-Cycle, Generational, and Period Effects," American Journal of Political Science, February 1979; Claggett, "Partisan Acquisition vs. Partisan Intensity: Life-Cycle, Generational, and Period Effects," American Journal of Political Science, June 1981; Jennings and Markus, "Partisan Orientations over the Long Haul: Results from the Three-Wave Political Socialization Panel Study," American Political Science Review, December 1984; Cassel, "A Test of Converse's Theory of Party Support," Journal of Politics, August 1993; Billingsley and Tucker, "Generations, Status and Party Identification: A Theory of Operant Conditioning," Journal Political Behavior, December 1987; Wong, "The Effects of Age and Political Exposure on the Development of Party Identification Among Asian American and Latino Immigrants in the United States," Political Behavior, December 2000.
  37. 1 2 3 Shively, "The Development of Party Identification Among Adults: Exploration of a Functional Model," American Political Science Review, December 1979.
  38. 1 2 3 4 Norpoth and Rusk, "Partisan Dealignment in the American Electorate: Itemizing the Deductions Since 1964," American Political Science Review, September 1982.
  39. ↑ Some scholars claim there is no life-cycle variable in determinants of partisanship. See: Abramson, "Generational Change and the Decline of Party Identification in America: 1952-1974," American Political Science Review, June 1976.
  40. ↑ Sears and Valentino, "Politics Matters: Political Events as Catalysts for Preadult Socialization," American Political Science Review, March 1997; Valentino and Sears, "Event-Driven Political Socialization and the Preadult Socialization of Partisanship," Political Behavior, July 1998; Franklin and Jackson, "The Dynamics of Party Identification," American Political Science Review, December 1983.
  41. ↑ Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections, 1981.
  42. 1 2 3 4 Clarke and Suzuki, "Partisan Dealignment and the Dynamics of Independence in the American Electorate, 1953-88," British Journal of Political Science, January 1994.
  43. 1 2 Allsop and Weisberg, "Measuring Change in Party Identification in an Election Campaign," American Journal of Political Science, November 1988.
  44. ↑ Lockerbie, "Party Identification: Constancy and Change," American Politics Research, December 2002; Lockerbie, "Change in Party Identification: The Role of Prospective Economic Evaluations," American Politics Research, July 1989; Brody and Rothenberg, "The Instability of Partisanship: An Analysis of the 1980 Presidential Election," British Journal of Political Science, October 1988.
  45. 1 2 3 Carmines, McIver, and Stimson, "Unrealized Partisanship: A Theory of Dealignment," Journal of Politics, May 1987.
  46. ↑ Some disagree that retrospective assessments affect partisanship. The rise of independent voting is less a product of dissatisfaction with political parties than it is the increasing irrelevancy of political parties in the modern electoral process, which is focused on mass communication and candidates rather than parties. See: Miller and Wattenberg, "Measuring Party Identification: Independent or No Partisan Preference?", American Journal of Political Science, February 1983.
  47. 1 2 Carsey and Layman, "Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate," American Journal of Political Science, April 2006.
  48. ↑ Kamieniecki, Party Identification, Political Behavior, and the American Electorate, 1985.
  49. ↑ Jacoby, "The Impact of Party Identification on Issue Attitudes," American Journal of Political Science, August 1988.
  50. 1 2 3 Norrander, "Explaining Cross-State Variation in Independent Identification", American Journal of Political Science, May 1989.
  51. 1 2 Beck, "Partisan Dealignment in the Postwar South," American Political Science Review, June 1977.
  52. ↑ "Party Affiliation". 20 September 2007.
  53. ↑ Abramson, Aldrich and Rohde, Change and Continuity in the 2004 Elections, 2005; Ambinder, "A Nation of Free Agents", Washington Post, September 3, 2006.
  54. ↑ Wolfinger, "The Promising Adolescence of Campaign Surveys," in Campaigns and Elections American Style, 1995, p. 184-185.
  55. ↑ Young, Sarah; Pitas, Costas; Piper, Elizabeth (20 May 2016). "Undecided voters may hold the UK's future in their hands". Reuters. Retrieved 2017-01-07.
  56. ↑ Marcel, Boogers; Voerman, Gerrit (2003-01-01). "Surfing citizens and floating voters". Information Polity. 8 (1–2).
  57. ↑ van Kessel, Stijn. "Swaying the disgruntled floating voter. The rise of populist parties in contemporary Dutch politics" . Retrieved 2016-01-07.
  58. ↑ Shabani, Mohammad Ali (2013-06-03). "Iranian Candidates Vie for 'Party of the Wind'". Al-Monitor. Retrieved 2017-03-07.
  59. ↑ Faghihi, Rohollah (2017-01-18). "Why hasn't Iran's president announced bid for re-election?". Al-Monitor. Retrieved 2017-03-07.
  60. ↑ Miller, "Party identification, Realignment, and Party Voting: Back to the Basics," American Political Science Review, June 1991.
  61. ↑ Key, "A Theory of Critical Elections," Journal of Politics, February 1955.
  62. ↑ Burnham, Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics, 1971; Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of Political Parties in the United States, 1983; Rosenof, Realignment: The Theory that Changed the Way We Think About American Politics, 2003; Miller, "Party identification, Realignment, and Party Voting: Back to the Basics," American Political Science Review, June 1991; Norpoth and Rusk, "Electoral Myth and Reality: Realignments in American Politics," Electoral Studies, June 2007; Abramowitz and Saunders, "Ideological Realignment in the U.S. Electorate," Journal of Politics, August 1998; Paulson, Realignment and Party Revival: Understanding American Electoral Politics at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century, 2000; Tubbesing, "Predicting the Present: Realigning Elections and Redistributive Policies," Polity, Summer 1975; Pomper, "The Classification of Presidential Elections," Journal of Politics, August 1967; Pomper, Voter's Choice: Varieties of American Electoral Behavior, 1983.
  63. ↑ Key, "Secular Realignment and the Party System," Journal of Politics, May 1959; Campbell, "The Revised Theory of Surge and Decline," American Journal of Political Science, November 1987; Campbell, "Party Systems and Realignments in the United States, 1868-2004," Social Science History, Fall 2006.
  64. 1 2 Bullock, Hoffman, and Gaddie, "Regional Variations in the Realignment of American Politics, 1944-2004," Social Science Quarterly, September 2006.
  65. ↑ Nardulli, "The Concept of a Critical Realignment, Electoral Behavior, and Political Change," American Political Science Review, March 1995; Cowden, "Southernization of the Nation and Nationalization of the South: Racial Conservatism, Social Welfare and White Partisans in the United States, 1956-92," British Journal of Political Science, April 2001.
  66. 1 2 Chubb and Peterson, "Realignment and Institutionalization," in New Directions in American Politics, 1985; Clubb, Flanigan and Zingale, Partisan Realignment: Voters, Parties, and Government in American History, 1990; Ladd, "The 1994 Congressional Elections: The Postindustrial Realignment Continues," Political Science Quarterly, Spring 1995; Lawrence, "On the Resurgence of Party Identification in the 1990s," in American Political Parties: Decline or Resurgence?, 2001.
  67. ↑ Mayhew, Electoral Realignments, 2004; Ladd, "Like Waiting for Godot: The Uselessness of 'Realignment' for Understanding Change in Contemporary American Politics," in The End of Realignment? Interpreting American Electoral Eras, 1991.
  68. ↑ Putz, "Partisan Conversion in the 1990s: Ideological Realignment Meets Measurement Theory," Journal of Politics, November 2002.
  69. ↑ Carmines and Stimson, "Issue Evolution, Population Replacement, and Normal Partisan Change," American Political Science Review, March 1981.
  70. ↑ Weakliem and Heath, "Regional Differences in Class Dealignment: A Comment on Johnston and Pattie," Political Geography, November 1995.
  71. ↑ Shea, "The Passing of Realignment and the Advent of the 'Base-less' Party System," American Politics Research, March 1999.
  72. ↑ Sabato and Larson, The Party's Just Begun: Shaping Political Parties for America's Future, 2001; Aldrich, Why Parties?: The Origin and Transformation of Political Parties in America, 1995; Hetherington and Keefe, Parties, Politics, and Public Policy in America, 2006; Maisel, The Parties Respond: Changes in American Parties and Campaigns, 2002; Smith, Party Influence in Congress, 2007; Eldersveld and Walton, Political Parties in American Society, 2000; Reichley, The Life of the Parties, 2000; McSweeney and Zvesper, American Political Parties, 1991; Green and Coffey, The State of the Parties: The Changing Role of Contemporary American Parties, 2006; Green and Herrnson, Responsible Partisanship?: The Evolution of American Political Parties Since 1950, 2003; Buckley, Parties and Elections in America: The Electoral Process, 2004; Sinclair, Party Wars: Polarization and the Politics of National Policy Making, 2006; Pomper, Voters, Elections and Parties: The Practice of Democratic Theory, 1988.
  73. ↑ Dalton, McAllister, and Wattenberg, "The Consequences of Partisan Dealignment," Parties Without Partisans, 2001.
  74. ↑ Lilleker, Key Concepts in Political Communication, 2006; Putnam, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community, 2001; Prior, Post-Broadcast Democracy: How Media Choice Increases Inequality in Political Involvement and Polarizes Elections, 2007; Holbert, "Television News Viewing, Governmental Scope, and Postmaterialist Spending: Assessing Mediation By Partisanship," Journal of Broadcasting & Electronic Media, December 2005; Levine, Presidential Campaigns and Elections: Issues and Images in the Media Age, 1995; Hart, Seducing America: How Television Charms the Modern Voter, 1998; King, The New American Political System, 1990; Fiorina, Divided Government, 1992; Thurber and Nelson, Campaigns and Elections American Style, 2004; Hart, Campaign Talk, 2000; Berry and Wilcox, The Interest Group Society, 2006; Buckley, Parties and Elections in America: The Electoral Process, 2004; Smith, Party Influence in Congress, 2007; Wattenberg, The Rise of Candidate-Centered Politics: Presidential Elections of the 1980s, 1991; Mackay, Essentials of American Politics, 1999.
  75. ↑ Sabato and Larson, The Party's Just Begun: Shaping Political Parties for America's Future, 2001; Aldrich, Why Parties?: The Origin and Transformation of Political Parties in America, 1995; Maisel, The Parties Respond: Changes in American Parties and Campaigns, 2002; Green and Herrnson, Responsible Partisanship?: The Evolution of American Political Parties Since 1950, 2003; Sinclair, Party Wars: Polarization And the Politics of National Policy Making, 2006.
  76. ↑ Fiorina, "Parties and Partisanship: A 40-Year Retrospective," Journal of Political Behavior, June 2002.

Related Research Articles

Theories of political behavior, as an aspect of political science, attempt to quantify and explain the influences that define a person's political views, ideology, and levels of political participation. Political behavior is the subset of human behavior that involves politics and power. Theorists who have had an influence on this field include Karl Deutsch and Theodor Adorno.

A political realignment, often called a critical election, critical realignment, or realigning election, in the academic fields of political science and political history, is a set of sharp changes in party ideology, issues, party leaders, regional and demographic bases of power of political parties, and the structure or rules of the political system, such as voter eligibility or financing. The changes result in a new political power structure that lasts for decades, replacing an older dominant coalition. Scholars frequently invoke the concept in American elections and occasionally those of other countries. American examples include the 1896 United States presidential election, when the issues of the American Civil War political system were replaced with those of the Populist and Progressive Era, and the 1932 United States presidential election, when the Populist and Progressive Eras were replaced by the New Deal-era issues of New Deal liberalism and modern conservatism. Realigning elections typically separate party systems—with 1828, for example, separating the First Party System and the Second Party System in the US. It is generally accepted that the United States has had five distinct party systems, each featuring two major parties attracting a consistent political coalition and following a consistent party ideology, separated by four realignments.

Philip Ernest Converse was an American political scientist. He was a professor in political science and sociology at the University of Michigan who conducted research on public opinion, survey research, and quantitative social science.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Voter turnout</span> Percentage of a countrys eligible voters who actually vote within elections

In political science, voter turnout is the participation rate of a given election. This is typically either the percentage of registered voters, eligible voters, or all voting-age people. According to Stanford University political scientists Adam Bonica and Michael McFaul, there is a consensus among political scientists that "democracies perform better when more people vote."

Political polarization is the divergence of political attitudes away from the center, towards ideological extremes.

<i>The American Voter</i> 1960 book on political partisanship

The American Voter, published in 1960, is a seminal study of voting behavior in the United States, authored by Angus Campbell, Philip Converse, Warren Miller, and Donald E. Stokes, colleagues at the University of Michigan. Among its controversial conclusions, based on one of the first comprehensive studies of election survey data, is that most voters cast their ballots primarily on the basis of partisan identification, and that independent voters are actually the least involved in and attentive to politics. This theory of voter choice became known as the Michigan Model. It was later extended to the United Kingdom by David Butler and Donald Stokes in Political change in Britain.

Dealignment, in political science, is a trend or process whereby a large portion of the electorate abandons its previous partisan affiliation, without developing a new one to replace it. It is contrasted with political realignment.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ivor Crewe</span> British political scientist

Sir Ivor Martin Crewe DL FAcSS was until 2020 the Master of University College, Oxford, and President of the Academy of Social Sciences. He was previously Vice-Chancellor of the University of Essex and also a Professor in the Department of Government at Essex.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fourth Party System</span> Phase in U.S. electoral politics (1896–1932)

The Fourth Party System was the political party system in the United States from about 1896 to 1932 that was dominated by the Republican Party, except the 1912 split in which Democrats captured the White House and held it for eight years.

Party identification refers to the political party with which an individual identifies. Party identification is affiliation with a political party. Party identification is typically determined by the political party that an individual most commonly supports.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fifth Party System</span> Phase in U.S. electoral politics (1932–1980)

The Fifth Party System, also known as the New Deal Party System, is the era of American national politics that began with the election of Franklin D. Roosevelt to President of the United States in 1932. Roosevelt's implementation of his popular New Deal expanded the size and power of the federal government to an extent unprecedented in American history, and marked the beginning of political dominance by the Democratic Party that would remain largely unbroken until 1952. This period also began the ideological swapping of Democrats and Republicans into their modern versions, largely due to most Black voters switching from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party, while most conservative, White, usually southern Democrats shifted to the Republican Party as Democrats began increasingly prioritizing civil rights; this process accelerated into the 1960s. The Fifth Party System followed the Fourth Party System, also known as the Progressive Era, and was itself followed by the Sixth Party System.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sixth Party System</span> Phase in U.S. electoral politics

The Sixth Party System is the era in United States politics following the Fifth Party System. As with any periodization, opinions differ on when the Sixth Party System may have begun, with suggested dates ranging from the late 1960s to the Republican Revolution of 1994. Nonetheless, there is agreement among scholars that the Sixth Party System features strong division between the Democratic and Republican parties, which are rooted in socioeconomic class, cultural, religious, educational and racial issues, and debates over the proper role of government.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cleavage (politics)</span> Sociological concept

In political science and sociology, a cleavage is a historically determined social or cultural line which divides citizens within a society into groups with differing political interests, resulting in political conflict among these groups. Social or cultural cleavages thus become political cleavages once they get politicized as such. Cleavage theory accordingly argues that political cleavages predominantly determine a country's party system as well as the individual voting behavior of citizens, dividing them into voting blocs. These blocs are distinguished by similar socio-economic characteristics, who vote and view the world in a similar way. It is distinct from other common political theories on voting behavior in the sense that it focuses on aggregate and structural patterns instead of individual voting behaviors.

The Michigan model is a theory of voter choice, based primarily on sociological and party identification factors. Originally proposed by political scientists, beginning with an investigation of the 1952 Presidential election, at the University of Michigan's Survey Research Centre. These scholars developed and refined an approach to voting behaviour in terms of a voter's psychological attachment to a political party, acknowledging cleavages on a group level, which would be continued over the next two decades.

Voting behavior refers to how people decide how to vote. This decision is shaped by a complex interplay between an individual voter's attitudes as well as social factors. Voter attitudes include characteristics such as ideological predisposition, party identity, degree of satisfaction with the existing government, public policy leanings, and feelings about a candidate's personality traits. Social factors include race, religion and degree of religiosity, social and economic class, educational level, regional characteristics, and gender. The degree to which a person identifies with a political party influences voting behavior, as does social identity. Voter decision-making is not a purely rational endeavor but rather is profoundly influenced by personal and social biases and deeply held beliefs as well as characteristics such as personality, memory, emotions, and other psychological factors. Voting advice applications and avoidance of wasted votes through strategic voting can impact voting behavior.

Political identity is a form of social identity marking membership of certain groups that share a common struggle for a certain form of power. This can include identification with a political party, but also positions on specific political issues, nationalism, inter-ethnic relations or more abstract ideological themes.

Political cognition refers to the study of how individuals come to understand the political world, and how this understanding leads to political behavior. Some of the processes studied under the umbrella of political cognition include attention, interpretation, judgment, and memory. Most of the advancements in the area have been made by scholars in the fields of social psychology, political science, and communication studies.

Negative partisanship is the tendency of some voters to form their political opinions primarily in opposition to political parties they dislike. Whereas traditional partisanship involves supporting the policy positions of one's own party, its negative counterpart in turn means opposing those positions of a disliked party. It has been claimed to be the cause of severe polarization in American politics. It has also been studied in the Canadian context, as well as in Australia and New Zealand. Cross-national studies indicate that negative partisanship undermines public satisfaction with democracy, which threatens democratic stability. Traditional partisans, on the other hand, are more likely to support their country's democracy, which promotes democratic stability.

Elisabeth Gidengil is a Canadian political scientist, currently the Hiram Mills Professor of political science at McGill University. She uses national and cross-national survey methods to study political participation and engagement, voter behaviour and voter turnout, and political communication, focusing on the role of gender and race in Canadian politics. The Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship has called her "Canada’s pre-eminent scholar on political behaviour, gender and diversity, and the media."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Political polarization in the United States</span> Divisions among people with different political ideologies in the United States

Political polarization is a prominent component of politics in the United States. Scholars distinguish between ideological polarization and affective polarization, both of which are apparent in the United States. In the last few decades, the U.S. has experienced a greater surge in ideological polarization and affective polarization than comparable democracies.

References

This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.