2020 United States presidential election predictions

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Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used:

Contents

State or district EV PVI [1] 2016 result 2020 result Cook
Oct 28, 2020 [2] 		Inside Elections
Oct 28, 2020 [3] 		Sabato
Nov 2, 2020 [4] 		Politico
Nov 2, 2020 [5] 		Real
Clear
Politics
Oct 29, 2020 [6] 		Niskanen Center
Sep 15, 2020 [7] 		CNN
Nov 2, 2020 [8] 		The Economist
Nov 3, 2020 [9] 		CBS News
Nov 1, 2020 [10] 		270
to
Win
Nov 3, 2020 [11] 		ABC News
Nov 2, 2020 [12] 		NPR
Oct 30, 2020 [13] 		NBC News
Oct 27, 2020 [14] 		DDHQ
Nov 3, 2020 [15] 		Five
Thirty
Eight [lower-alpha 1]
Nov 2, 2020 [16]
 
Alabama 9R+14+27.73% R+25.46% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Alaska 3R+9+14.73% R+10.06% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Tossup Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Arizona 11R+5+3.50% R+0.31% D
(flip)		Lean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip)Tossup Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)
Arkansas 6R+15+26.92% R+27.62% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
California 55D+12+30.11% D+29.16% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Colorado 9D+1+4.91% D+13.50% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Connecticut 7D+6+13.64% D+20.07% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Delaware 3D+6+11.37% D+18.97% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
District of Columbia 3D+41+86.78% D+86.75% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Florida 29R+2+1.20% R
(flip)		+3.36% R Tossup Tilt D (flip)Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip)Tossup Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)
Georgia 16R+5+5.13% R+0.24% D
(flip)		Tossup Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Hawaii 4D+18+32.18% D+29.46% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Idaho 4R+19+31.77% R+30.77% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Illinois 20D+7+17.06% D+16.99% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Indiana 11R+9+19.17% R+16.06% R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Iowa 6R+3+9.41% R
(flip)		+8.20% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R
Kansas 6R+13+20.60% R+14.65% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Kentucky 8R+15+29.84% R+25.94% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Louisiana 8R+11+19.64% R+18.61% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Maine 2D+3+2.96% D+9.07% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D
ME-11D+8+14.81% D+23.09% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D — Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
ME-21R+2+10.29% R
(flip)		+7.44% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely R Tossup — Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Maryland 10D+12+26.42% D+33.21% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Massachusetts 11D+12+27.20% D+33.46% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Michigan 16D+1+0.23% R
(flip)		+2.78% D
(flip)		Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Solid D (flip)
Minnesota 10D+1+1.52% D+7.11% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Solid D
Mississippi 6R+9+17.83% R+16.55% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R
Missouri 10R+9+18.64% R+15.39% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Montana 3R+11+20.42% R+16.37% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Nebraska 2R+14+25.05% R+19.06% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
NE-11R+11+20.72% R+14.92% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R — Likely R Safe R Solid R Lean R Solid R Safe R Solid R
NE-21R+4+2.24% R+6.50% D
(flip)		Lean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)— Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)
NE-31R+27+54.19% R+53.02% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R — Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Nevada 6D+1+2.42% D+2.39% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D
New Hampshire 4D+1+0.37% D+7.35% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D
New Jersey 14D+7+14.10% D+15.94% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
New Mexico 5D+3+8.21% D+10.79% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
New York 29D+11+22.49% D+23.11% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
North Carolina 15R+3+3.66% R+1.35% R Tossup Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)
North Dakota 3R+16+35.73% R+33.36% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Ohio 18R+3+8.13% R
(flip)		+8.03% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Oklahoma 7R+20+37.08% R+33.09% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Oregon 7D+5+10.98% D+16.08% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Pennsylvania 20EVEN+0.72% R
(flip)		+1.16% D
(flip)		Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)
Rhode Island 4D+10+15.51% D+20.77% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
South Carolina 9R+8+14.27% R+11.68% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
South Dakota 3R+14+29.79% R+26.16% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Tennessee 11R+14+26.01% R+23.21% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Texas 38R+8+8.99% R+5.58% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R
Utah 6R+20+18.08% R+20.48% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Vermont 3D+15+26.41% D+35.41% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Virginia 13D+1+5.32% D+10.11% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Washington 12D+7+15.71% D+19.20% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
West Virginia 5R+19+42.07% R+38.93% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Wisconsin 10EVEN+0.77% R
(flip)		+0.63% D
(flip)		Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Likely D (flip)
Wyoming 3R+25+46.29% R+43.38% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Overall538EVEND: 232
R: 306
D: 306
R: 232
D: 290
R: 125
Tossup: 123 		D: 350
R: 125
Tossup: 63 		D: 321
R: 217
Tossup: 0 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 216
R: 125
Tossup: 197 		D: 318
R: 123
Tossup: 97 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 334
R: 164
Tossup: 40 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 321
R: 125
Tossup: 92 		D: 279
R: 125
Tossup: 134 		D: 279
R: 125
Tossup: 134 		D: 308
R: 163
Tossup: 67 		D: 334
R: 169
Tossup: 35

Notes

  1. ↑ Projected chances of winning indicated by Tossup: 50%–59%, Lean: 60%–74%, Likely: 75%–94%, Solid: 95%–100%

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States presidential election in the District of Columbia</span> Election in the District of Columbia

The 2020 United States presidential election in the District of Columbia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. District of Columbia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. The District of Columbia has three electoral votes in the Electoral College. Prior to the election, Biden was virtually certain to win D.C. The nation's capital is heavily Democratic and has voted for the Democratic nominee by massive margins in every presidential election it has participated in, ever since it was first granted electors due to passage of the Twenty-third Amendment in 1961. Biden's 86.75-point margin of victory was virtually identical to that secured by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Nevertheless, the District shifted very slightly to the right compared with the previous election, making Biden the first non-incumbent Democrat since 1988 to win D.C. by a smaller margin than in the previous cycle. Along with seven states, it was one of just eight electoral-vote areas where Trump improved on his 2016 margins.

References

  1. ↑ Coleman, Miles (December 15, 2017). "2016 State PVI Changes – Decision Desk HQ". Decision Desk HQ . Archived from the original on June 13, 2018. Retrieved July 27, 2019.
  2. ↑ "2020 Electoral College Ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
  3. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections . April 3, 2020. Retrieved April 14, 2020.
  4. ↑ "2020 President". Sabato's Crystal Ball . July 14, 2020. Retrieved July 14, 2020.
  5. ↑ Shepard, Steven; et al. (November 19, 2019). "2020 Election Forecast". Politico . Retrieved November 19, 2019.
  6. ↑ "Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics . April 19, 2019. Archived from the original on May 3, 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  7. ↑ Niskanen Center Electoral Map, 270toWin, September 15, 2020.
  8. ↑ "CNN's final 2020 Electoral College outlook: A remarkably stable race comes to an end". CNN . November 2, 2020. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  9. ↑ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Archived from the original on July 5, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  10. ↑ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Archived from the original on July 12, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  11. ↑ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  12. ↑ "ABC News Race Ratings". ABC News. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  13. ↑ Montanaro, Domenico (October 30, 2020). "Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path". NPR . Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  14. ↑ Todd, Chuck; Murray, Mark; Dann, Carrie; Holzberg, Melissa (October 27, 2020). "Biden continues to lead in our latest battleground map". NBC News . Washington, D.C. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
  15. ↑ "2020 Presidential Election Model". Øptimus Consulting. Decision Desk HQ. November 3, 2020. Retrieved July 31, 2022.
  16. ↑ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. 2020. Archived from the original on September 11, 2020. Retrieved November 2, 2020.

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