2020 United States presidential election predictions

Last updated

Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used:

Contents

State or district EV PVI [1] 2016 result 2020 result Cook
Oct 28, 2020 [2] 		Inside Elections
Oct 28, 2020 [3] 		Sabato
Nov 2, 2020 [4] 		Politico
Nov 2, 2020 [5] 		Real
Clear
Politics
Oct 29, 2020 [6] 		Niskanen Center
Sep 15, 2020 [7] 		CNN
Nov 2, 2020 [8] 		The Economist
Nov 3, 2020 [9] 		CBS News
Nov 1, 2020 [10] 		270
to
Win
Nov 3, 2020 [11] 		ABC News
Nov 2, 2020 [12] 		NPR
Oct 30, 2020 [13] 		NBC News
Oct 27, 2020 [14] 		DDHQ
Nov 3, 2020 [15] 		Five
Thirty
Eight [lower-alpha 1]
Nov 2, 2020 [16]
 
Alabama 9R+14+27.73% R+25.46% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Alaska 3R+9+14.73% R+10.06% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Tossup Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Arizona 11R+5+3.50% R+0.31% D
(flip)		Lean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip)Tossup Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)
Arkansas 6R+15+26.92% R+27.62% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
California 55D+12+30.11% D+29.16% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Colorado 9D+1+4.91% D+13.50% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Connecticut 7D+6+13.64% D+20.07% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Delaware 3D+6+11.37% D+18.97% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
District of Columbia 3D+41+86.78% D+86.75% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Florida 29R+2+1.20% R
(flip)		+3.36% R Tossup Tilt D (flip)Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip)Tossup Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)
Georgia 16R+5+5.13% R+0.24% D
(flip)		Tossup Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Hawaii 4D+18+32.18% D+29.46% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Idaho 4R+19+31.77% R+30.77% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Illinois 20D+7+17.06% D+16.99% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Indiana 11R+9+19.17% R+16.06% R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Iowa 6R+3+9.41% R
(flip)		+8.20% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R
Kansas 6R+13+20.60% R+14.65% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Kentucky 8R+15+29.84% R+25.94% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Louisiana 8R+11+19.64% R+18.61% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Maine 2D+3+2.96% D+9.07% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D
ME-11D+8+14.81% D+23.09% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D — Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
ME-21R+2+10.29% R
(flip)		+7.44% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely R Tossup — Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Maryland 10D+12+26.42% D+33.21% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Massachusetts 11D+12+27.20% D+33.46% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Michigan 16D+1+0.23% R
(flip)		+2.78% D
(flip)		Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Solid D (flip)
Minnesota 10D+1+1.52% D+7.11% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Solid D
Mississippi 6R+9+17.83% R+16.55% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R
Missouri 10R+9+18.64% R+15.39% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Montana 3R+11+20.42% R+16.37% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Nebraska 2R+14+25.05% R+19.06% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
NE-11R+11+20.72% R+14.92% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R — Likely R Safe R Solid R Lean R Solid R Safe R Solid R
NE-21R+4+2.24% R+6.50% D
(flip)		Lean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)— Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)
NE-31R+27+54.19% R+53.02% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R — Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Nevada 6D+1+2.42% D+2.39% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D
New Hampshire 4D+1+0.37% D+7.35% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D
New Jersey 14D+7+14.10% D+15.94% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
New Mexico 5D+3+8.21% D+10.79% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
New York 29D+11+22.49% D+23.11% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
North Carolina 15R+3+3.66% R+1.35% R Tossup Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)
North Dakota 3R+16+35.73% R+33.34% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Ohio 18R+3+8.13% R
(flip)		+8.03% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Oklahoma 7R+20+36.39% R+33.09% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Oregon 7D+5+10.98% D+16.09% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Pennsylvania 20EVEN+0.72% R
(flip)		+1.16% D
(flip)		Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)
Rhode Island 4D+10+15.51% D+20.77% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
South Carolina 9R+8+14.27% R+11.68% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
South Dakota 3R+14+29.79% R+26.16% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Tennessee 11R+14+26.01% R+23.21% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Texas 38R+8+8.99% R+5.58% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R
Utah 6R+20+18.08% R+20.48% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Vermont 3D+15+26.41% D+35.41% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Virginia 13D+1+5.32% D+10.11% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Washington 12D+7+15.71% D+19.20% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
West Virginia 5R+19+42.07% R+38.93% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Wisconsin 10EVEN+0.77% R
(flip)		+0.63% D
(flip)		Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Likely D (flip)
Wyoming 3R+25+46.29% R+43.38% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Overall538EVEND: 232
R: 306
D: 306
R: 232
D: 290
R: 125
Tossup: 123 		D: 350
R: 125
Tossup: 63 		D: 321
R: 217
Tossup: 0 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 216
R: 125
Tossup: 197 		D: 318
R: 123
Tossup: 97 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 334
R: 164
Tossup: 40 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 321
R: 125
Tossup: 92 		D: 279
R: 125
Tossup: 134 		D: 279
R: 125
Tossup: 134 		D: 308
R: 163
Tossup: 67 		D: 334
R: 169
Tossup: 35

Notes

  1. ↑ Projected chances of winning indicated by Tossup: 50%–59%, Lean: 60%–74%, Likely: 75%–94%, Solid: 95%–100%

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References

  1. ↑ Coleman, Miles (December 15, 2017). "2016 State PVI Changes – Decision Desk HQ". Decision Desk HQ . Archived from the original on June 13, 2018. Retrieved July 27, 2019.
  2. ↑ "2020 Electoral College Ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
  3. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections . April 3, 2020. Retrieved April 14, 2020.
  4. ↑ "2020 President". Sabato's Crystal Ball . July 14, 2020. Retrieved July 14, 2020.
  5. ↑ Shepard, Steven; et al. (November 19, 2019). "2020 Election Forecast". Politico . Retrieved November 19, 2019.
  6. ↑ "Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics . April 19, 2019. Archived from the original on May 3, 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  7. ↑ Niskanen Center Electoral Map, 270toWin, September 15, 2020.
  8. ↑ "CNN's final 2020 Electoral College outlook: A remarkably stable race comes to an end". CNN . November 2, 2020. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  9. ↑ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Archived from the original on July 5, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  10. ↑ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Archived from the original on July 12, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  11. ↑ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  12. ↑ "ABC News Race Ratings". ABC News. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  13. ↑ Montanaro, Domenico (October 30, 2020). "Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path". NPR . Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  14. ↑ Todd, Chuck; Murray, Mark; Dann, Carrie; Holzberg, Melissa (October 27, 2020). "Biden continues to lead in our latest battleground map". NBC News . Washington, D.C. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
  15. ↑ "2020 Presidential Election Model". Øptimus Consulting. Decision Desk HQ. November 3, 2020. Retrieved July 31, 2022.
  16. ↑ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. 2020. Archived from the original on September 11, 2020. Retrieved November 2, 2020.

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