52nd Newfoundland and Labrador general election

Last updated

52nd Newfoundland and Labrador general election
Flag of Newfoundland and Labrador.svg
←  2021 On or before November 24, 2025 [lower-alpha 1] 53rd →
All 40 seats in the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly
21 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Premier Andrew Furey - 2020 (cropped 2).png
Tony Wakeham 2022.jpg
NDP
Leader Andrew Furey Tony Wakeham
Jim Dinn
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since 3 August 2020 14 October 2023 19 October 2021
Leader's seat Humber-Gros Morne Stephenville-Port au Port St. John's Centre
Last election22 seats, 48.24%13 seats, 38.80%2 seats, 8.02%
Current seats22123
Incumbent Premier

Andrew Furey
Liberal



The 52nd Newfoundland and Labrador general election will take place on or before November 24, 2025 [lower-alpha 1] to elect members to the 51st General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Contents

Current party standings

Standings in the 50th General Assembly [2]
AffiliationLeader House members
2021 election resultsCurrent standings
Liberal Andrew Furey 2222
Progressive Conservative Tony Wakeham 1312
New Democratic Jim Dinn 23
Independent 32
Vacant01

Timeline

Changes in MHAs/seats held

Changes in seats held (2021–)
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Torngat Mountains 25 October, 2021 Lela Evans █  PC Resignation from PC caucus [15] █  Independent
7 March, 2022█  Independent Joined the NDP caucus [16] [17] █  New Democratic
Lake Melville 12 September, 2022 Perry Trimper █  Independent Joined the Liberal caucus [18] █  Liberal
Conception Bay East-Bell Island December 29, 2023 David Brazil █  PC Resigned from House of Assembly [19] January 30, 2024 Fred Hutton █  Liberal
Fogo Island-Cape Freels January 22, 2024 Derrick Bragg █  Liberal Death of incumbent [20] April 15, 2024 Jim McKenna █  PC
Baie Verte-Green Bay March 1, 2024 Brian Warr █  Liberal Resigned from House of Assembly [21] TBDTBDTBD

Opinion polls

Opinion polling 52nd NFLD general election.jpg

Polling firmDates conductedLink Liberal PC NDP OthersMargin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
Narrative Research7–18 Feb 2024 [p 1] 43%33%23%1%±5.2%350Telephone10%
Narrative Research2–26 Nov 2023 [p 2] 44%38%16%3%±5.0%388Telephone6%
14 Oct 2023 Tony Wakeham is elected leader of the PCs. [22]
Abacus Data19–25 Sep 2023 [p 3] 40%38%21%1%±4.5%341Online2%
Narrative Research1–11 Aug 2023 [p 4] 40%37%23%0%±5.2%350Telephone3%
Narrative Research4–15 May 2023 [p 5] 50%31%17%2%±5.2%350Telephone19%
28 Mar 2023 Jim Dinn is acclaimed permanent NDP leader.
Narrative Research17–21 Feb 2023 [p 6] 46%36%17%0%±5.2%350Telephone10%
Narrative Research3–27 Nov 2022 [p 7] 47%34%16%3%±4.2%535Telephone13%
Narrative Research3–23 Aug 2022 [p 8] 40%42%16%1%±6.0%260Telephone2%
Angus Reid7–13 Jun 2022 [p 9] 36%45%12%6%±7.0%201Online9%
Narrative Research5–24 May 2022 [p 10] 48%32%17%3%±5.9%275Telephone16%
Angus Reid10–15 Mar 2022 [p 11] 43%44%10%4%±7.0%196Online1%
Narrative Research8–21 Feb 2022 [p 12] 49%32%15%3%±5.2%350Telephone17%
Angus Reid7–12 Jan 2022 [p 13] 37%44%15%4%±8.0%155Online7%
MQO Research19 Nov – 5 Dec 2021 [p 14] 47%31%18%4%±5.5%400Telephone16%
Narrative Research2–23 Nov 2021 [p 15] 48%27%23%2%±3.5%800Telephone21%
19 Oct 2021 Alison Coffin resigns as leader of the NDP; Jim Dinn becomes interim leader.
Angus Reid29 Sep – 3 Oct 2021 [p 16] 39%39%17%5%N/A203OnlineTie
Narrative Research9–29 Aug 2021 [p 17] 53%28%18%1%±4.9%400Telephone25%
MQO Research12 Jun – 10 Jul 2021 [p 18] 56%26%15%2%±4.9%400Telephone30%
Angus Reid2–7 Jun 2021 [p 19] 50%39%8%2%±2.0%153Online11%
Narrative Research11–26 May 2021 [p 20] 54%30%14%2%±3.5%800Telephone24%
8 Apr 2021 Andrew Furey and his cabinet sworn in. [23]
31 Mar 2021 Ches Crosbie resigns as leader of the PCs; David Brazil becomes interim leader. [24]
2021 general election 25 Mar 2021 HTML 48.24%38.80%8.02%4.93%———9.44%
Polling firmDates conductedLinkOthersMargin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
Liberal PC NDP

Notes

  1. 1 2 Due to an overlap between the fixed dates of this election and the next Canadian federal election scheduled for October 20, 2025, Subsections 3(3) and (4) of the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly Act states that the fixed date for this election is November 24, 2025. If the next Canadian federal election were to occur before April 1, 2025, the fixed date for this election would be October 14, 2025. [1]

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References

  1. ↑ "HOUSE OF ASSEMBLY ACT". assembly.nl.ca. Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. 2020. Archived from the original on 24 December 2022. Retrieved 9 October 2023.
  2. ↑ "House of Assembly - NL - Members". Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. Archived from the original on 8 August 2021. Retrieved 4 August 2021.
  3. ↑ Staff, CBC News (31 March 2021). "PC Leader Ches Crobie stepping down as head of party". CBC News . Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on 1 November 2021. Retrieved 2 November 2021.
  4. ↑ Smellie, Sarah (31 March 2021). "N.L. Tory leader Ches Crosbie delivers parting shot as he steps down after loss". Toronto Star . Archived from the original on 1 November 2021. Retrieved 2 November 2021.
  5. ↑ Staff, The Canadian Press (19 October 2021). "Alison Coffin steps down as leader of Newfoundland and Labrador's New Democrats". CTV News . CTV Television Network. Archived from the original on 19 October 2021. Retrieved 19 October 2021.
  6. ↑ Mullin, Malone; Kennedy, Alex (6 July 2022). "Surprise N.L. cabinet shuffle sees John Haggie, Tom Osborne switch roles". CBC News . Archived from the original on 6 July 2022. Retrieved 6 July 2022.
  7. ↑ "Jim Dinn removes 'interim' tag after being acclaimed NDP leader". CBC News. 28 March 2023. Archived from the original on 28 March 2023. Retrieved 12 April 2023.
  8. ↑ Furey Shuffles Cabinet in Wake of Derrick Bragg’s Cancer Diagnosis Archived 14 June 2023 at the Wayback Machine . VOCM News, 14 June 2023.
  9. ↑ "Tony Wakeham wins PC leadership, setting stage for next election". CBC News. 14 October 2023. Archived from the original on 14 October 2023. Retrieved 14 October 2023.
  10. ↑ Antle, Sarah (10 November 2023). "David Brazil, former Tory leader, stepping down in December". CBC News. Archived from the original on 11 November 2023. Retrieved 10 November 2023.
  11. ↑ "Derrick Bragg, Cabinet Minister Who Devoted His Life to Public Service, Passes Away". VOCM. 22 January 2024. Retrieved 22 January 2024.
  12. ↑ "Conception Bay East-Bell Island By-Election Moved to Tuesday".
  13. ↑ "Fred Hutton Elected MHA for Conception Bay East-Bell Island". VOCM. 30 January 2024.
  14. ↑ "Fred Hutton Sworn In as Minister of Housing". VOCM. 29 February 2024.
  15. ↑ Staff, CBC News (25 October 2021). "Lela Evans, MHA for Labrador's Torngat Mountains district, leaving PC Party". CBC News . Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on 1 November 2021. Retrieved 2 November 2021.
  16. ↑ Smith, Greg. "Former PC MHA Joins NDP". VOCM. Archived from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 8 March 2022.
  17. ↑ "Former PC MHA Lela Evans joins NDP caucus". CBC News. 7 March 2022. Archived from the original on 8 March 2022. Retrieved 8 March 2022.
  18. ↑ "Independent MHA Perry Trimper rejoins Liberal caucus". 12 September 2022.
  19. ↑ "David Brazil, former Tory leader, stepping down in December".
  20. ↑ "Liberal MHA and cabinet minister Derrick Bragg dead at 59". 22 January 2024.
  21. ↑ Roberts, Terry (26 February 2024). "It's back to building supplies for Brian Warr as Liberal MHA returns to his business roots". CBC . Retrieved 22 March 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  22. ↑ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 14 October 2023. Retrieved 14 October 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  23. ↑ Smellie, Sarah (8 April 2021). "Andrew Furey sworn in as Newfoundland and Labrador premier after tumultuous election". CTV News. Archived from the original on 5 August 2021. Retrieved 4 August 2021.
  24. ↑ Quinn, Mark [@CBCMarkQuinn] (31 March 2021). "Ches Crosbie stepping down #nlpoli" (Tweet). Retrieved 4 August 2021– via Twitter.

Opinion poll sources

  1. ↑ "NL: The Liberals lead in terms of voter support". Narrative Research. 28 February 2024. Retrieved 5 March 2024.
  2. ↑ "NL: The Liberals have a slight lead over the PCs in terms of voter support". Narrative Research. 5 December 2023. Retrieved 5 December 2023.
  3. ↑ "Newfoundland and Labrador Liberals and PCs are statistically tied as the cost of living and healthcare are in focus". Abacus Data . 2 October 2023. Archived from the original on 13 October 2023. Retrieved 2 October 2023.
  4. ↑ "NL: While satisfaction with the Provincial Government remains stable in NL, the Liberals and PCs share similar levels of voter support". Narrative Research. 24 August 2023. Archived from the original on 24 August 2023. Retrieved 24 August 2023.
  5. ↑ "Liberals have a stronger lead in terms of voter support" (PDF). Narrative Research. 24 May 2023. Retrieved 17 December 2023.
  6. ↑ "NL: Voting intentions have remained stable, with Liberals continuing to lead in terms of voter support". Narrative Research. 7 March 2023. Archived from the original on 7 March 2023. Retrieved 7 March 2023.
  7. ↑ "Voting intentions have shifted and the Liberals now lead in terms of voter support". Narrative Research. 1 December 2022. Archived from the original on 1 December 2022. Retrieved 1 December 2022.
  8. ↑ "Voting intentions have shifted this quarter to reflect a tighter race between the PCs and Liberals with the Liberals no longer leading". Narrative Research. 30 August 2022. Archived from the original on 30 August 2022. Retrieved 30 August 2022.
  9. ↑ "Atlantic Spotlight: Soaring inflation, floundering health-care systems leave East Coasters critical of governments". Angus Reid. July 2022. Archived from the original on 14 July 2022. Retrieved 14 July 2022.
  10. ↑ "Satisfaction with NL premier Andrew Furey's government has declined over the past three months with residents now equally likely to be dissatisfied as satisfied". Narrative Research. 26 May 2022. Archived from the original on 26 May 2022. Retrieved 26 May 2022.
  11. ↑ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid. March 2022. Archived from the original on 31 March 2022. Retrieved 31 March 2022.
  12. ↑ "Satisfaction with NL premier Andrew Furey's government remains stable with Fall 2021". Narrative Research. Archived from the original on 3 March 2022. Retrieved 3 March 2022.
  13. ↑ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. 20 January 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 January 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2022.
  14. ↑ "Fall/Winter 2021 Provincial Report Newfoundland and Labrador" (PDF). MQO Research. December 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on 10 December 2021. Retrieved 7 January 2022.
  15. ↑ "Satisfaction with NL premier Andrew Furey's government declines through 2021" (PDF). Narrative Research. 29 November 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 December 2021.
  16. ↑ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments" (PDF). Angus Reid. 27 October 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on 27 October 2021. Retrieved 3 November 2021.
  17. ↑ "Satisfaction with premier Andrew Furey's government remains strong" (PDF). Narrative Research. 22 September 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 December 2021. Retrieved 23 September 2021.
  18. ↑ "Spring/Summer 2021 Provincial Report Newfoundland and Labrador" (PDF). MQO Research. July 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on 7 January 2022. Retrieved 7 January 2022.
  19. ↑ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity & political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management" (PDF). Angus Reid. 9 June 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on 10 June 2021. Retrieved 5 August 2021.
  20. ↑ "Satisfaction with the performance of the NL provincial government has declined, but remains strong following the recent election" (PDF). Narrative Research. 3 June 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 December 2021. Retrieved 7 January 2022.
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