Accretion/dilution analysis

Last updated
Pre-deal situation:
BuyCo plans to acquire 100% shares of SellCo in a stock-for-stock transaction.
BuyCo has a net income of $300,000 and 100,000 shares outstanding
Market shareprice of BuyCo is $50.0
Pre-deal EPS = $3.0
Pre-deal P/E = 16.7x
SellCo has a net income of $100,000 and 50,000 shares outstanding
Market shareprice of SellCo is $60.0
Pre-deal EPS = $2.0
Pre-deal P/E = 30.0x

The deal:

BuyCo agrees to pay a premium for control of 30%, so the offer price for one SellCo share is 1.3*$60.0 = $78.0
Stock-for-stock exchange ratio is $78/$50 = 1.56 of BuyCo shares for one SellCo share
BuyCo issues 1.56*50,000 = 78,000 new shares to exchange them for all the SellCo shares outstanding
Total shares of NewCo = 100,000(pre-deal shares of BuyCo) + 78,000 (new shares) = 178,000 shares
NewCo expected EPS = Total net income/Total shares outstanding = ($300,000+$100,000)/178,000 = $2.25
NewCo expected shareprice = (P/E of BuyCo)*(expected EPS) = 16.7x*$2.25 = $37.45

Post-deal situation:

EPS of NewCo falls from $3.0 to $2.25, so the deal is 25% dilutive for BuyCo shareholders
BuyCo shareholders own 100,000/178,000 = 56.18% of NewCo (so they retain control)
SellCo shareholders own 78,000/178,000 = 43.82% of NewCo

[2] Accretion/dilution analysis is a type of M&A financial modelling performed in the pre-deal phase to evaluate the effect of the transaction on shareholder value and to check whether EPS for buying shareholders will increase or decrease post-deal. [2] Generally, shareholders do not prefer dilutive transactions; however, if the deal may generate enough value to become accretive in a reasonable time, a proposed combination is justified.

Contents

Aside is a simplified example. A real-life accretion/dilution analysis may be much more complex if the deal is structured as cash-and-stock-for-stock, if preferred shares and dilutive instruments are involved, if debt and transaction fees are substantial, and so on. Generally, if the buying company has a higher P/E multiple than that of the target, the deal is likely to be accretive. The reverse is true for a dilutive transaction.

See also

Related Research Articles

Mergers and acquisitions Type of corporate transaction

In corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are transactions in which the ownership of companies, other business organizations, or their operating units are transferred or consolidated with other entities. As an aspect of strategic management, M&A can allow enterprises to grow or downsize, and change the nature of their business or competitive position.

Dividend Payment made by a corporation to its shareholders, usually as a distribution of profits

A dividend is a distribution of profits by a corporation to its shareholders. When a corporation earns a profit or surplus, it is able to pay a proportion of the profit as a dividend to shareholders. Any amount not distributed is taken to be re-invested in the business. The current year profit as well as the retained earnings of previous years are available for distribution; a corporation is usually prohibited from paying a dividend out of its capital. Distribution to shareholders may be in cash or, if the corporation has a dividend reinvestment plan, the amount can be paid by the issue of further shares or by share repurchase. In some cases, the distribution may be of assets.

A shareholder of a corporation is an individual or legal entity that is registered by the corporation as the legal owner of shares of the share capital of a public or private corporation. Shareholders may be referred to as members of a corporation. A person or legal entity becomes a shareholder in a corporation when their name and other details are entered in the corporation's register of shareholders or members, and unless required by law the corporation is not required or permitted to enquire as to the beneficial ownership of the shares. A corporation generally cannot own shares of itself.

Price–earnings ratio Financial Metric

The price-earnings ratio, also known as P/E ratio, P/E, or PER, is the ratio of a company's share (stock) price to the company's earnings per share. The ratio is used for valuing companies and to find out whether they are overvalued or undervalued.

In accounting, book value is the value of an asset according to its balance sheet account balance. For assets, the value is based on the original cost of the asset less any depreciation, amortization or impairment costs made against the asset. Traditionally, a company's book value is its total assets minus intangible assets and liabilities. However, in practice, depending on the source of the calculation, book value may variably include goodwill, intangible assets, or both. The value inherent in its workforce, part of the intellectual capital of a company, is always ignored. When intangible assets and goodwill are explicitly excluded, the metric is often specified to be "tangible book value".

Convertible bond Type of bond

In finance, a convertible bond or convertible note or convertible debt is a type of bond that the holder can convert into a specified number of shares of common stock in the issuing company or cash of equal value. It is a hybrid security with debt- and equity-like features. It originated in the mid-19th century, and was used by early speculators such as Jacob Little and Daniel Drew to counter market cornering.

Valuation (finance) Process of estimating what something is worth, used in the finance industry

In finance, valuation is the process of determining the present value (PV) of an asset. In a business context, it is often the hypothetical price that a third party would pay for a given asset. Valuations can be done on assets or on liabilities. Valuations are needed for many reasons such as investment analysis, capital budgeting, merger and acquisition transactions, financial reporting, taxable events to determine the proper tax liability.

A pre-money valuation is a term widely used in the private equity and venture capital industries. It refers to the valuation of a company or asset prior to an investment or financing. If an investment adds cash to a company, the company will have a valuation after the investment that is equal to the pre-money valuation plus the cash amount. That is, the pre-money valuation refers to the company's valuation before the investment. It is used by equity investors in the primary market, such as venture capitalists, private equity investors, corporate investors and angel investors. They may use it to determine how much equity they should be issued in return for their investment in the company. This is calculated on a fully diluted basis. For example, all warrants and options issued are taken into account.

Preferred stock Type of stock which may have any combination of features not possessed by common stock

Preferred stock is a component of share capital that may have any combination of features not possessed by common stock, including properties of both an equity and a debt instrument, and is generally considered a hybrid instrument. Preferred stocks are senior to common stock but subordinate to bonds in terms of claim and may have priority over common stock in the payment of dividends and upon liquidation. Terms of the preferred stock are described in the issuing company's articles of association or articles of incorporation.

In financial markets, stock valuation is the method of calculating theoretical values of companies and their stocks. The main use of these methods is to predict future market prices, or more generally, potential market prices, and thus to profit from price movement – stocks that are judged undervalued are bought, while stocks that are judged overvalued are sold, in the expectation that undervalued stocks will overall rise in value, while overvalued stocks will generally decrease in value.

Post-money valuation is a way of expressing the value of a company after an investment has been made. This value is equal to the sum of the pre-money valuation and the amount of new equity.

Earnings per share Value of earnings per outstanding share of common stock for a company

Earnings per share (EPS) is the monetary value of earnings per outstanding share of common stock for a company.

Rights issue

A rights issue or rights offer is a dividend of subscription rights to buy additional securities in a company made to the company's existing security holders. When the rights are for equity securities, such as shares, in a public company, it can be a non-dilutive pro rata way to raise capital. Rights issues are typically sold via a prospectus or prospectus supplement. With the issued rights, existing security-holders have the privilege to buy a specified number of new securities from the issuer at a specified price within a subscription period. In a public company, a rights issue is a form of public offering.

In finance, the term accretion refers to a positive change in value following a transaction; it is applied in several contexts.

Business valuation is a process and a set of procedures used to estimate the economic value of an owner's interest in a business. Here various valuation techniques are used by financial market participants to determine the price they are willing to pay or receive to effect a sale of the business. In addition to estimating the selling price of a business, the same valuation tools are often used by business appraisers to resolve disputes related to estate and gift taxation, divorce litigation, allocate business purchase price among business assets, establish a formula for estimating the value of partners' ownership interest for buy-sell agreements, and many other business and legal purposes such as in shareholders deadlock, divorce litigation and estate contest.

Stock dilution, also known as equity dilution, is the decrease in existing shareholders' ownership percentage of a company as a result of the company issuing new equity. New equity increases the total shares outstanding which has a dilutive effect on the ownership percentage of existing shareholders. This increase in the number of shares outstanding can result from a primary market offering, employees exercising stock options, or by issuance or conversion of convertible bonds, preferred shares or warrants into stock. This dilution can shift fundamental positions of the stock such as ownership percentage, voting control, earnings per share, and the value of individual shares.

Valuation using discounted cash flows is a method of estimating the current value of a company based on projected future cash flows adjusted for the time value of money. The cash flows are made up of those within the “explicit” forecast period, together with a continuing or terminal value that represents the cash flow stream after the forecast period. In several contexts, DCF valuation is referred to as the "income approach".

A venture round is a type of funding round used for venture capital financing, by which startup companies obtain investment, generally from venture capitalists and other institutional investors. The availability of venture funding is among the primary stimuli for the development of new companies and technologies.

Stock Shares into which ownership of the corporation is divided

In finance, stock consists of all of the shares into which ownership of a corporation or company is divided. A single share of the stock means fractional ownership of the corporation in proportion to the total number of shares. This typically entitles the shareholder (stockholder) to that fraction of the company's earnings, proceeds from liquidation of assets, or voting power, often dividing these up in proportion to the amount of money each stockholder has invested. Not all stock is necessarily equal, as certain classes of stock may be issued for example without voting rights, with enhanced voting rights, or with a certain priority to receive profits or liquidation proceeds before or after other classes of shareholders.

Corporate finance Academic discipline concerning the activities of corporations

Corporate finance is the area of finance that deals with sources of funding, the capital structure of corporations, the actions that managers take to increase the value of the firm to the shareholders, and the tools and analysis used to allocate financial resources. The primary goal of corporate finance is to maximize or increase shareholder value.

References