Apparent infection rate

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Apparent infection rate is an estimate of the rate of progress of a disease, based on proportional measures of the extent of infection at different times.

Firstly, a proportional measure of the extent of infection is chosen as the disease extent metric. For example, the metric might be the proportion of leaf area affected by mildew, or the proportion of plants in a population showing dieback lesions. Measures of disease extent are then taken over time, and a mathematical model is fit. The model is based upon two assumptions:

A mathematical model is a description of a system using mathematical concepts and language. The process of developing a mathematical model is termed mathematical modeling. Mathematical models are used in the natural sciences and engineering disciplines, as well as in the social sciences.

Exponential growth Growth of quantities at rate proportional to the current amount

Exponential growth is exhibited when the rate of change—the change per instant or unit of time—of the value of a mathematical function of time is proportional to the function's current value, resulting in its value at any time being an exponential function of time, i.e., a function in which the time value is the exponent. Exponential decay occurs in the same way when the growth rate is negative. In the case of a discrete domain of definition with equal intervals, it is also called geometric growth or geometric decay, the function values forming a geometric progression. In either exponential growth or exponential decay, the ratio of the rate of change of the quantity to its current size remains constant over time.

There is a single model parameter r, which is the apparent infection rate. It can be calculated analytically using the formula

where

r is the apparent infection rate
t1 is the time of the first measurement
t2 is the time of the second measurement
x1 is the proportion of infection measured at time t1
x2 is the proportion of infection measured at time t2

See also

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References

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