 National Centre for Climate Restoration | |
Type of site | Climate change |
|---|---|
| Available in | English |
| URL | www |
| Launched | November 8, 2017 [1] |
| Current status | Active |
The Breakthrough - National Centre for Climate Restoration is an independent think-tank established in 2014, located in Melbourne, Australia. [2] [3] [4] Their website describes Breakthrough's mission as the development and promotion of strategies, innovation and analysis which are required to restore the climate to a safe condition. [5]
In 2014, the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, part of the Melbourne University provided its campus for the Breakthrough: National Climate Restoration Forum. [6] In 2017, Breakthrough hosted a public event at the University of Melbourne and at the Australian National University, featuring the film The Age of Consequences which focuses on the security impacts of climate change. [7] Guest speaker Sherri W. Goodman, former US Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Environmental Security, and a key contributor to a series of landmark US reports on climate security, provided an overview of the key points from the documentary. [8]
The same year the Australian Broadcasting Corporation aired a podcast on the topic of climate risks, highlighting a report from Breakthrough. [9] The report stated that "global warming will drive increasingly severe humanitarian crises, forced migration, political instability and conflict in the Asia-Pacific and world." [10]
In 2018, Breakthrough made a submission to the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee of the Australian Senate which was conducting an Inquiry Into Threats And Long-Term Risks Posed By Climate Change To National Security And International Security. [11] Breakthrough's submission to the committee said "Post-Paris emissions pathways are consistent with 3°C or more of warming, with the potential for a 4–5°C temperature increase. The global risks include dramatic changes to agricultural patterns, water systems and food security, and coastal inundation and forced migrations, which have the capacity to destabilise nations, fuel multi- national conflict and increase the risk of nuclear war." [12]
David Spratt, Research Director for Breakthrough said there was a disconnect between evidence presented to the inquiry, that climate change was a “current and existential national security risk”, and the recommendations that emerged from it. [2] [13]
Luke Taylor is Managing Director of the Breakthrough Centre. [14] David Spratt, author of Climate Code Red, is the research director. [2] Giselle Wilkinson is the Outreach Director. [15] Ian Dunlop, former chair of the Australian Coal Association and CEO of the Australian Institute of Company Directors is a senior member of the advisory board of Breakthrough. [16]
2017: In 2017 the report Disaster Alley was released, warning of a refugee crisis across the Asia-Pacific, due to global warming. [17] In 2018, Breakthrough published the report What Lies Beneath: The Understatement of Existential Climate Risk , with a scope on climate policy and climate actions, authored by David Spratt and Ian Dunlop, and a foreword by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. [18] [19] David Wallace-Wells from the New York Magazine described the report as terrifying. [20] Alvin Stone from the Australian Research Council, notes about the report, "This report is not intended as a “science paper”, rather its designed to translate science into action and highlight risks..". [21]
2018: In June 2018, Breakthrough released a new report titled Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach [22] describing a climate change doomsday scenario by 2050 if we don't act soon. The report says the plans that countries put forward in Paris in 2016 to cut emissions will still lead to around 3°C of warming. Breakthrough says warming will actually be much higher because the number does not include long-term carbon cycle feedback loops. It predicts that by 2050, sea levels will have risen by 0.5 metres, the Amazon ecosystem will collapse, the Arctic will be ice-free in summer, global crop yields drop by a fifth and more than half of the world’s population faces 20 days a year of lethal heat. [23]
The report says "irreversible damage" is happening to global climate systems "resulting in a world of chaos where political panic is the norm and we are on a path facing the end of civilisation". [24] Adam Sobel, professor of applied physics and mathematics at Columbia University in New York who studies atmospheric and climate dynamics, says the scenarios described in the report "don't seem that far-fetched to me." [24] Mark Maslin of University College, London, said the report adds to concerns expressed by security experts at the Pentagon over climate change. [23]
2019: In May 2019, Breakthrough released a new discussion paper titled The Third Degree: Evidence and implications for Australia of existential climate-related security risk [25] providing evidence to support a scenario for 3°C of global warming and warning that Australia is totally unprepared for current and escalating climate impacts and that the 'Official Future' subscribed to by most political and corporate leaders remains one of "climate denial and predatory delay".
In May 2019, Breakthrough in association with Scout Films released Episode One of the four-part documentary Home Front, [26] produced and directed by Luke Taylor. Episode One, titled Existential Gamble, runs for 16:30 minutes and features interviews with significant people from the military, business and humanitarian communities including former Liberal Party leader John Hewson, World Vision chief Tim Costello and former Australian Airforce Deputy Chief John Blackburn. They describe the potential security and infrastructure threats from rapid climate change including political instability, economic collapse, mass migration and sea-level rise.
Breakthrough received The 2015 Community Environment Recognition Award from Environment Victoria. They were commended for challenging those involved in addressing climate change to appreciate that the situation is now an emergency and that those involved in campaigning should act accordingly. [4]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organisation, established in 1974, that provides policy recommendations, analysis and data on the entire global energy sector. The 31 member countries and 13 association countries of the IEA represent 75% of global energy demand.
Climate change affects the physical environment, ecosystems and human societies. Changes in the climate system include an overall warming trend, more extreme weather and rising sea levels. These in turn impact nature and wildlife, as well as human settlements and societies. The effects of human-caused climate change are broad and far-reaching. This is especially so if there is no significant climate action. Experts sometimes describe the projected and observed negative impacts of climate change as the climate crisis.
The economic analysis of climate change explains how economic thinking, tools and techniques are applied to calculate the magnitude and distribution of damage caused by climate change. It also informs the policies and approaches for mitigation and adaptation to climate change from global to household scales. This topic is also inclusive of alternative economic approaches, including ecological economics and degrowth. In a cost–benefit analysis, the trade offs between climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation are made explicit. Cost–benefit analyses of climate change are produced using integrated assessment models (IAMs), which incorporate aspects of the natural, social, and economic sciences. The total economic impacts from climate change are difficult to estimate, but increase for higher temperature changes.
Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was published in 2007 and is the fourth in a series of reports intended to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The report is the largest and most detailed summary of the climate change situation ever undertaken, produced by thousands of authors, editors, and reviewers from dozens of countries, citing over 6,000 peer-reviewed scientific studies. People from over 130 countries contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, which took six years to produce. Contributors to AR4 included more than 2,500 scientific expert reviewers, more than 800 contributing authors, and more than 450 lead authors.
There are several plausible pathways that could lead to an increased extinction risk from climate change. This is because every plant and animal species has evolved to exist within a certain ecological niche, and as climate change represents the long-term alteration of temperature and average weather patterns, it can push climatic conditions outside of the species' niche, which will ultimately render it extinct. Normally, species faced with changing conditions can either adapt in place through microevolution or move to another habitat with suitable conditions. However, the speed of recent climate change is so unprecedented, that even under "mid-range" scenarios of future warming, only 5% of current ectotherm locations are within 50 km of a place which could serve as an equally suitable habitat at the end of this century.
Climate change in South Asia is having significant impacts already which are expected to intensify as global temperatures rise due to climate change. The South Asia region consists of the eight countries: Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka. In the 2017 edition of Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, Bangladesh and Pakistan ranked sixth and seventh respectively as the countries most affected by climate change in the period from 1996 to 2015, while India ranked fourth among the list of countries most affected by climate change in 2015. The Indian subcontinent is one of the most vulnerable regions globally to a number of direct and indirect effects of climate change, including sea level rise, cyclonic activity, and changes in ambient temperature and precipitation patterns. Ongoing sea level rise has already submerged several low-lying islands in the Sundarbans region, displacing thousands of people.
Climate change in Australia has been a critical issue since the beginning of the 21st century. Australia is becoming hotter and more prone to extreme heat, bushfires, droughts, floods, and longer fire seasons because of climate change. Climate issues include wildfires, heatwaves, cyclones, rising sea-levels, and erosion.
Ross Gregory Garnaut is an Australian economist, currently serving as a vice-chancellor's fellow and professorial fellow of economics at the University of Melbourne. He is the author of numerous publications in scholarly journals on international economics, public finance and economic development, particularly in relation to East Asia and the Southwest Pacific.
Climate change is an urgent and significant issue affecting Japan. In recent years, the country has observed notable changes in its climate patterns, with rising temperatures serving as a prominent indicator of this phenomenon. As an archipelago situated in northeastern Asia, Japan is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its diverse geography and exposure to various weather systems. The nation experiences a broad range of climates, spanning from the frigid winters of Hokkaido to the subtropical climates of Okinawa. Changes in temperature patterns have the potential to disrupt ecosystems, impact agricultural productivity, modify water resources, and pose significant challenges to infrastructure and human settlements.
Climate Code Red: The Case for Emergency Action is a 2008 book which presents scientific evidence that the global warming crisis is worse than official reports and national governments have so far indicated. The book argues that we are facing a "sustainability emergency" that requires a clear break from business-as-usual politics. The authors explain that emergency action to address climate change is not so much a radical idea as an indispensable course we must embark upon. Climate Code Red draws heavily on the work of a large number of climate scientists, including James E. Hansen.
100% renewable energy is the goal of the use renewable resources for all energy. 100% renewable energy for electricity, heating, cooling and transport is motivated by climate change, pollution and other environmental issues, as well as economic and energy security concerns. Shifting the total global primary energy supply to renewable sources requires a transition of the energy system, since most of today's energy is derived from non-renewable fossil fuels.
Climate change in New Zealand involves historical, current and future changes in the climate of New Zealand; and New Zealand's contribution and response to global climate change. Summers are becoming longer and hotter, and some glaciers have melted completely and others have shrunk. In 2021, the Ministry for the Environment estimated that New Zealand's gross emissions were 0.17% of the world's total gross greenhouse gas emissions. However, on a per capita basis, New Zealand is a significant emitter, the sixth highest within the Annex I countries, whereas on absolute gross emissions New Zealand is ranked as the 24th highest emitter.
Between 1901 and 2018, the average global sea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), or an average of 1–2 mm per year. This rate accelerated to 4.62 mm/yr for the decade 2013–2022. Climate change due to human activities is the main cause. Between 1993 and 2018, thermal expansion of water accounted for 42% of sea level rise. Melting temperate glaciers accounted for 21%, with Greenland accounting for 15% and Antarctica 8%. Sea level rise lags changes in the Earth's temperature. So sea level rise will continue to accelerate between now and 2050 in response to warming that is already happening. What happens after that will depend on what happens with human greenhouse gas emissions. Sea level rise may slow down between 2050 and 2100 if there are deep cuts in emissions. It could then reach a little over 30 cm (1 ft) from now by 2100. With high emissions it may accelerate. It could rise by 1 m or even 2 m by then. In the long run, sea level rise would amount to 2–3 m (7–10 ft) over the next 2000 years if warming amounts to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). It would be 19–22 metres (62–72 ft) if warming peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F).
A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical future event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, even endangering or destroying modern civilization. An event that could cause human extinction or permanently and drastically curtail humanity's existence or potential is known as an "existential risk."
Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. Scenarios and pathways are created by scientists to survey any long term routes and explore the effectiveness of mitigation and helps us understand what the future may hold this will allow us to envision the future of human environment system. Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change. Economic and energy modelling can be used to analyze and quantify the effects of such drivers.
Climate security is a political and policy framework that looks at the impacts of climate on security. Climate security often refers to the national and international security risks induced, directly or indirectly, by changes in climate patterns. It is a concept that summons the idea that climate-related change amplifies existing risks in society that endangers the security of humans, ecosystems, economy, infrastructure and societies. Climate-related security risks have far-reaching implications for the way the world manages peace and security. Climate actions to adapt and mitigate impacts can also have a negative effect on human security if mishandled.
Climate restoration is the climate change goal and associated actions to restore CO2 to levels humans have actually survived long-term, below 300 ppm. This would restore the Earth system generally to a safe state, for the well-being of future generations of humanity and nature. Actions include carbon dioxide removal from the Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere, which, in combination with emissions reductions, would reduce the level of CO2 in the atmosphere and thereby reduce the global warming produced by the greenhouse effect of an excess of CO2 over its pre-industrial level. Actions also include restoring pre-industrial atmospheric methane levels by accelerating natural methane oxidation.
The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15) was published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 8 October 2018. The report, approved in Incheon, South Korea, includes over 6,000 scientific references, and was prepared by 91 authors from 40 countries. In December 2015, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference called for the report. The report was delivered at the United Nations' 48th session of the IPCC to "deliver the authoritative, scientific guide for governments" to deal with climate change. Its key finding is that meeting a 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) target is possible but would require "deep emissions reductions" and "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society". Furthermore, the report finds that "limiting global warming to 1.5 °C compared with 2 °C would reduce challenging impacts on ecosystems, human health and well-being" and that a 2 °C temperature increase would exacerbate extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, coral bleaching, and loss of ecosystems, among other impacts.
A climate apocalypse generally denotes a predicted scenario involving the global collapse of human civilization and potential human extinction as either a direct or indirect result of anthropogenic climate change. Academics and researchers posit that in actuality, unless a major course correction is imminently implemented, some or all of the Earth will be rendered uninhabitable as a result of extreme temperatures, severe weather events, an inability to grow crops, and an altered composition of the Earth's atmosphere.
The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the sixth in a series of reports which assess scientific, technical, and socio-economic information concerning climate change. Three Working Groups covered the following topics: The Physical Science Basis (WGI); Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (WGII); Mitigation of Climate Change (WGIII). Of these, the first study was published in 2021, the second report February 2022, and the third in April 2022. The final synthesis report was finished in March 2023.