 | |
| Author | Stephen M. Stigler |
|---|---|
| Language | English |
| Subjects | History, Probability, Statistics |
| Publisher | Chicago University Press |
Publication date | 2022 |
| Pages | 232 |
| ISBN | 978-0-226-82079-8 |
Casanova's Lottery: The History of a Revolutionary Game of Chance is a history book about the French Loterie by historian and statistician Stephen M. Stigler.
It is easy to associate statistics with death, thanks to actuarial tables and life expectancies, but the history of statistics also contains its libidinal opposite. Amid frequency distributions and tables of payout odds, Casanova's Lottery reminds us that the history of statistics is also a history of dreams, sex, and hope. [1]
Stigler's Casanova’s Lottery: The History of a Revolutionary Game of Chance [2] tells how, thanks to the direct involvement of the Venetian Giacomo Casanova, the French Loterie was established, lasting from 1758 to 1836 – with a four-year interruption during the French Revolution in 1793–1797. [3] A quarter of a billion tickets were sold over that period through lottery offices all over France, thanks to which the state budget received "millions of livres (and then francs)". [1]
The Loterie was unique because, unlike a raffle, the maximum possible winning to be disbursed by the state to the winners was not known in advance. Thus, it was considerably riskier for the French administration, be it monarchical, republican, or imperial. [1] [3] [4]
At each drawing, the state was at risk of losing a large amount; what is more, that risk was precisely calculable, generally well understood, and yet taken on by the state with little more than a mathematical theory to protect it. [2] : 1
Bets were made on the drawing without replacement of five random numbers out of a total of 90 numbers, each number being associated with a woman's name to make fraud more difficult. Bettors wagered on one, two or three (and later four) numbers. [1]
The book describes the various stages of the Loterie. Initially established to fund the French École militaire – the discussions leading to the establishment of the school saw the direct involvement of the creator of the École militaire, Joseph Pâris Duverney, as well as of the French academician Jean d'Alembert, of Madame Pompadour and of Casanova [2] : 11–18 – the lottery was subsequently conducted under the responsibility of the ministry of finance. [1]
Among the interesting stories told in the volume is how Voltaire won a fortune of several million francs by participating to a scheme in an earlier French state lottery that aimed at reimbursing state debtors. [4] [2] : 153-155
The interest of the book also comes from the author's statistical expertise. [3] Stigler relies on Menut de Saint Mesmin's Almanach Romain sur la loterie de France, published in 1834, and intended as a guide for bettors. [3] Since the Almanach reports the winning numbers drawn since 1758 as well as the prizes paid out, it constitutes for Stigler [3]
a precisely randomized survey of the French betting public [...] "more than a century before randomized surveys were invented". [2] : 6
Two appendices describe respectively the formulae for the calculus of probabilities relative to the lottery and a theorem from Pierre-Simon Laplace on the distribution of the number of draws needed for all 90 numbers to appear at least once. [4]
The book won the 2023 Neumann_Prize of the British Society for the History of Mathematics.
In probability theory, odds provide a measure of the probability of a particular outcome. Odds are commonly used in gambling and statistics. For example for an event that is 40% probable, one could say that the odds are "2 in 5","2 to 3 in favor", or "3 to 2 against".
A lottery is a form of gambling that involves the drawing of numbers at random for a prize. Some governments outlaw lotteries, while others endorse it to the extent of organizing a national or state lottery. It is common to find some degree of regulation of lottery by governments. The most common regulations are prohibition of sale to minors and licensing of ticket vendors. Although lotteries were common in the United States and some other countries during the 19th century, by the beginning of the 20th century, most forms of gambling, including lotteries and sweepstakes, were illegal in the U.S. and most of Europe as well as many other countries. This remained so until well after World War II. In the 1960s, casinos and lotteries began to re-appear throughout the world as a means for governments to raise revenue without raising taxes.
A raffle is a gambling competition in which people obtain numbered tickets, each of which has the chance of winning a prize. At a set time, the winners are drawn at random from a container holding a copy of each number. The drawn tickets are checked against a collection of prizes with numbers attached to them, and the holder of the ticket wins the prize.
Stephen Mack Stigler is the Ernest DeWitt Burton Distinguished Service Professor at the Department of Statistics of the University of Chicago. He has authored several books on the history of statistics; he is the son of the economist George Stigler.
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A unique bid auction is a type of strategy game related to traditional auctions where the winner is usually the individual with the lowest unique bid, although less commonly the auction rules may specify that the highest unique bid is the winner. Unique bid auctions are often used as a form of competition and strategy game where bidders pay a fee to make a bid, or may have to pay a subscription fee in order to be able to participate.
The British Society for the History of Mathematics (BSHM) was founded in 1971 to promote research into the history of mathematics at all levels and to further the use of the history of mathematics in education.
The Louisiana Lottery Corporation (LLC) is a government-run lottery that is used to generate revenue without increasing taxes. The proceeds of the Lottery go to the Minimum Foundation Program that funds public education in Louisiana. The daily activities involved with running the cooperation are handled by the president of the Louisiana Lottery Cooperation. The president is under the supervision of the Lottery's nine-member governing board of directors.
Lotto America is an American multi-state lottery game that began in 2017. It is operated by the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL) as a revival of the original Lotto America, offered from 1988 to 1992. Lotto America was re-launched by 13 state lotteries on November 12, 2017, as a replacement for the scandal-tarred Hot Lotto game; each of the 13 members of Lotto America offered Hot Lotto when it ended on October 28, 2017.
The National Lottery is the state-franchised national lottery established in 1994 in the United Kingdom. It is regulated by the Gambling Commission, and is operated by Allwyn Entertainment, who took over from Camelot Group on 1 February 2024.
The Arkansas Scholarship Lottery is run by the government of Arkansas.
La Française des Jeux is the operator of France's and the Republic of Ireland's national lottery games, and the title sponsor of the FDJ cycling team. The name of the company loosely translates as The French Company of Games. The company was previously owned and operated by the French government. In July 2018, the French government, which owned 72% of FDJ, took the company public and sold off 50% of its ownership to bolster public finances.
The Massachusetts Lottery was established on September 27, 1971, following the legalization of gambling by the Massachusetts General Court, the legislature of the Commonwealth. The Lottery is administered by the Massachusetts State Lottery Commission. It is a member of the North American Association of State and Provincial Lotteries (NASPL) since 1972.
The National Lottery is the state-licensed lottery of Ireland. Established in 1986 to raise funds for good causes, it began operations on 23 March 1987 when it sold its first scratchcards. It launched the weekly drawing game Lotto the following year, holding the first draw on 16 April 1988. It now offers EuroDreams draws on Mondays and Thursdays, EuroMillions and Plus draws on Tuesdays and Fridays, Lotto and Lotto Plus draws on Wednesdays and Saturdays, and two Daily Million draws each day. Its other games include televised bingo, an annual Millionaire Raffle, and online instant-win games. The minimum age to play all National Lottery games is 18.
A lottery is a form of gambling which involves selling numbered tickets and giving prizes to the holders of numbers drawn at random. Lotteries are outlawed by some governments, while others endorse it to the extent of organizing their own national (state) lottery. It is common to find some degree of regulation by governments, like allowing or prohibiting online sales of tickets.
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Legal forms of gambling in the U.S. state of North Carolina include the North Carolina Education Lottery, three Indian casinos, charitable bingo and raffles, and low-stakes "beach bingo". North Carolina has long resisted expansion of gambling, owing to its conservative Bible Belt culture.