In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending. This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock, the bursting of an economic bubble, or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster. There is no official definition of a recession, according to the IMF.
In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. This is usually measured using a consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is the world's oldest and largest supply management association. Founded in 1915, the U.S.-based not-for-profit educational association serves professionals and organizations with interest in supply management, providing education, training, qualifications, publications, information, and research.
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business is a purchasing survey of the United States service economy, published by the Institute for Supply Management since June 1998. Its results are a popular economic indicator and forecaster. The survey is currently written by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, the Senior Vice President of Supply Management for Hilton Hotels Corporation.
An economic indicator is a statistic about an economic activity. Economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance. One application of economic indicators is the study of business cycles. Economic indicators include various indices, earnings reports, and economic summaries: for example, the unemployment rate, quits rate, housing starts, consumer price index, inverted yield curve, consumer leverage ratio, industrial production, bankruptcies, gross domestic product, broadband internet penetration, retail sales, price index, and changes in credit conditions.
Business cycles are intervals of general expansion followed by recession in economic performance. The changes in economic activity that characterize business cycles have important implications for the welfare of the general population, government institutions, and private sector firms.
A performance indicator or key performance indicator (KPI) is a type of performance measurement. KPIs evaluate the success of an organization or of a particular activity in which it engages. KPIs provide a focus for strategic and operational improvement, create an analytical basis for decision making and help focus attention on what matters most.
In statistics, economics, and finance, an index is a statistical measure of change in a representative group of individual data points. These data may be derived from any number of sources, including company performance, prices, productivity, and employment. Economic indices track economic health from different perspectives. Examples include the consumer price index, which measures changes in retail prices paid by consumers, and the cost-of-living index (COLI), which measures the relative cost of living over time.
Consumer confidence is an economic indicator that measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. If the consumer has confidence in the immediate and near future economy and his/her personal finance, then the consumer will spend more than save.
Purchasing managers' indexes (PMI) are economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies.
The Philadelphia Fed Report, formally known as the Business Outlook Survey and sometimes abbreviated as BOS, is a monthly survey produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia which questions manufacturers on general business conditions. The index covers the Third Federal Reserve District, namely covers eastern and central Pennsylvania, the nine southern counties of New Jersey, and Delaware. The report is sometimes also called the Philadelphia Fed Index because it includes reporting of some index values.
Philip Poh is a professor that developed the Singapore Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in 1998. After a successful pilot survey, the Singapore PMI was launched in January 1999 and the index has become a barometer of the Singapore manufacturing economy. In 2002, government officials in China sought the advice of Professor Poh to develop the China PMI. Since then, the China PMI has also become an indicator of the global manufacturing economy.
The term Lehman Wave refers to an economy-wide fluctuation in production and economic activity, with a wavelength of between 12 and 18 months, driven by a sudden major disruption of the economic system. The Lehman Wave is a damped, wave-like fluctuation around equilibrium. The amplitude of the Lehman Wave is larger for a business that is further away from its end market than for a business that is closer to its end market, which difference is caused by cumulative de-stocking of the intermediate supply chain. This term Lehman Wave has first been used by Dutch researchers in 2009 who gave that name to the economic wave that started in September 2008. They argue that the latter was caused by global de-stocking after the financial panic following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008. The Lehman Wave can have strong effects on the sales volume and therefore on the profitability of companies that are located upstream in the supply chain.
Active destocking in supply chain management is an active decision to reduce the inventory-to-sales ratio of a company. The inventory can include finished products, raw materials and goods in process. In general, active destocking is done following an autonomous, often financial decision by a company to improve its efficiency, free up cash and reduce its costs. Decisions for active destocking in general are made by financial executives or general managers.
Reactive destocking in supply chain management is a reduction of the inventory when expected demand goes down. When a company is only doing reactive destocking, the desired inventory to sales ratio, remains unchanged. Reactive destocking in general is done by operational managers of the logistical activities, without additional instructions. The inventory can include finished products, raw materials and/or goods in process.
An economic calendar is used by investors to monitor market-moving events, such as economic indicators and monetary policy decisions. Market-moving events, which are typically announced or released in a report, have a high probability of impacting the financial markets.
The 2015-2016 Chinese stock market turbulence began with the popping of a stock market bubble on 12 June 2015 and ended in early February 2016. A third of the value of A-shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was lost within one month of the event. Major aftershocks occurred around 27 July and 24 August's "Black Monday". By 8–9 July 2015, the Shanghai stock market had fallen 30 percent over three weeks as 1,400 companies, or more than half listed, filed for a trading halt in an attempt to prevent further losses. Values of Chinese stock markets continued to drop despite efforts by the government to reduce the fall. After three stable weeks the Shanghai index fell again by 8.48 percent on 24 August, marking the largest fall since 2007.
The ISM Report On Business (ROB), also known as the ISM Report, is the collective name for two monthly reports, the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business and the Services ISM Report On Business(formerly Non-Manufacturing), published by Institute for Supply Management. The ROB is based on a national survey of purchasing managers tracking changes in the manufacturing and services sectors. It is considered to be one of the most reliable economic barometers of the U.S. economy and gives an important early look at the health of the nation's economy. In addition to being market moving, the ROB makes an important contribution to the American statistical system and to economic policy. It also has one of the shortest reporting lags of any macroeconomic series.
The Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM) is a not-for-profit, independent professional organisation founded in 1972 with the aim to enhance managerial effectiveness of professionals in purchasing, logistics, materials and supply chain management. The mission of SIPMM is to lead professional competence in purchasing, materials, logistics, and supply chain management.
