Maine gubernatorial election, 2018

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Maine gubernatorial election, 2018
Flag of Maine.svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)2022 
  Janet Mills Maine AG 2013.jpg Shawn Moody.jpg No image.svg
Nominee Janet Mills Shawn Moody Terry Hayes
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Popular vote320,962272,31137,268
Percentage50.89%43.18%5.91%

Maine governor election results by county, 2018.svg
County Results
Mills:     40-50%     50–60%     60–70%
Moody:     40–50%     50–60%

Governor before election

Paul LePage
Republican

Elected Governor

Janet Mills
Democratic

The 2018 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next Governor of Maine. It occurred along with elections for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Paul LePage was term limited and could not seek reelection to a third consecutive term in office.

Governor of Maine head of state and of government of the U.S. state of Maine

The Governor of Maine is the chief executive of the State of Maine. Before Maine was admitted to the Union in 1820, Maine was part of Massachusetts and the Governor of Massachusetts was chief executive.

Republican Party (United States) Major political party in the United States

The Republican Party, also referred to as the GOP, is one of the two major political parties in the United States; the other is its historic rival, the Democratic Party.

Contents

The primaries for this election were the first in Maine to be conducted with ranked choice voting (RCV), as opposed to a simple plurality, after voters passed a citizen referendum approving the change in 2016. [1] An advisory opinion by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court held that RCV would be unconstitutional for general elections for governor and the state legislature. This led state legislators to vote to delay its implementation pending approval of a state constitutional amendment. [2] [3] Backers of a "people's veto" turned in enough signatures to suspend this law until a June referendum vote, which restored RCV for future primary and congressional elections. [4]

An advisory opinion is an opinion issued by a court or a commission like an election commission that does not have the effect of adjudicating a specific legal case, but merely advises on the constitutionality or interpretation of a law. Some countries have procedures by which the executive or legislative branches may certify important questions to the judiciary and obtain an advisory opinion. In other countries or specific jurisdictions, courts may be prohibited from issuing advisory opinions.

Maine Supreme Judicial Court the highest court in the U.S. state of Maine

The Maine Supreme Judicial Court is the highest court in the state of Maine's judicial system. It is composed of seven justices, who are appointed by the Governor and confirmed by the Maine Senate. From 1820 until 1839, justices served lifetime appointments with a mandatory retirement age of 70. Beginning in 1839, justices are appointed for seven-year terms, with no limit on the number of terms that they may serve.

Governor Paul LePage threatened not to certify the results of the primary elections, saying he would "leave it up to the courts to decide." [5] He also called the use of ranked-choice voting the "most horrific thing in the world." [6] Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap said the results would be binding regardless of whether LePage certified them. [7]

Paul LePage American businessman, Republican Party politician, and the 74th Governor of Maine

Paul Richard LePage is an American businessman and politician who was the 74th Governor of Maine, from 2011 to 2019. A member of the Republican Party, LePage served two terms as a city councilor in Waterville, Maine, before being elected Mayor of Waterville in 2003, serving until 2011.

Matthew Dunlap American politician

Matthew Dunlap is an American politician from Maine. A Democrat, Dunlap is the Secretary of State of Maine, serving since January 7, 2013, and previously served in that same post from 2005 to 2011. In 2012, he sought to become his party's nominee to replace retiring Olympia Snowe, but lost in the primary to State Senator Cynthia Dill. Prior to his first election as Secretary of State in 2005, he represented Old Town in the Maine House of Representatives for four terms beginning in 1996.

The Republican nominee was businessman and 2010 independent candidate for governor Shawn Moody. The Democratic candidate was Attorney General Janet Mills. State Treasurer Terry Hayes and businessman Alan Caron had qualified for the ballot as independents, though Caron dropped out on October 29 and endorsed Mills. Former State Senator and former mayor of Lewiston and Auburn John Jenkins and perennial candidate Kenneth Capron ran write-in campaigns.

The Maine Attorney General is the chief legal advisor and prosecutor of the State of Maine. The constitutional basis of the office is Article IX, Section 11 of the Maine Constitution, and the holder of the position is chosen biennially by the Maine Legislature in joint session. Maine is the only state to select its attorney general in such a manner.

The Maine State Treasurer is a constitutional officer of the State of Maine.

Mills defeated Moody and Hayes to become the first female Governor of Maine. She also became the first gubernatorial candidate to win at least 50% of the vote since Angus King in 1998, and the first non-incumbent to do so since Kenneth M. Curtis in 1966. Mills also became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to earn 300,000 votes.

Angus King United States Senator from Maine

Angus Stanley King Jr. is an American politician and attorney serving as the junior United States Senator from Maine since 2013. A political independent since 1993, he was the 72nd Governor of Maine from 1995 to 2003.

Kenneth Merwin Curtis is an American lawyer and former politician. He is currently a principal in the law firm of Curtis Thaxter Stevens Broder & Micoleau Limited Liability Company, P.A.

Background

Incumbent Republican Paul LePage is term-limited, having been elected twice consecutively in 2010 and 2014. LePage did not win a majority of the vote either time (receiving 37.6% in a crowded four-way race in 2010 and 48.2% in a three-way race in 2014), with Democrats accusing independent candidate Eliot Cutler of splitting the anti-LePage vote in both instances, though Cutler finished closer to LePage than Democratic candidate Libby Mitchell in the 2010 election. [8]

Eliot Cutler American politician and lawyer

Eliot Cutler is an American lawyer who was an Independent candidate in Maine's 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial races. In 2010, he placed second in a multi-way race, receiving 208,270 votes, equaling 35.9%, narrowly losing to Republican Paul LePage. In 2014 he garnered only 8.4%, placing third behind both the Democratic candidate as well as LePage, who was re-elected with 48.2% of the vote. Both times, he was claimed to be a spoiler for the Democratic candidate. He has served in the Carter Administration as part of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget.

Libby Mitchell American politician

Elizabeth H. "Libby" Mitchell is an American politician from Maine. Mitchell, a Democrat, represented part of Kennebec County in the Maine Senate from 2004 to 2010. Mitchell was also the Democrats' 2010 candidate for the office of Governor of Maine. She finished in third place behind Republican Paul LePage and unenrolled attorney Eliot Cutler. She is the only woman in United States history to have been elected as both speaker of her state house of representatives and president of her state senate.

Maine's history of governors elected without majorities, including LePage, was one impetus for the citizen's referendum to implement ranked choice voting. [9] [10] Indeed, the last time a gubernatorial candidate received a majority of the vote was in 1998, when incumbent Governor (and current United States Senator) Angus King, an independent, won reelection with 58.6% of the vote. The last time a non-incumbent candidate received more than 50% of the vote was the 1966 gubernatorial election, which Democrat Kenneth M. Curtis won over incumbent Republican John H. Reed with 53.1% of the vote.

Though ranked-choice voting was approved by voters in a 2016 referendum, the Maine Legislature voted to delay and potentially repeal RCV for all elections after an advisory opinion by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court ruled it unconstitutional for general elections for state offices. RCV supporters succeeded in a people's veto effort to prevent the delay, which suspends it until a June 2018 referendum vote. [11] RCV supporters were victorious in the June referendum, and ranked-choice voting will remain in place for state and federal primaries and federal general elections. [12]

Republican primary

Speculation that U.S. Senator Susan Collins was considering running for governor arose during the 2015 Maine Legislative session when Representative Matt Moonen (D-Portland) introduced a bill to strip the governor (LePage at the time) of the power to appoint replacement U.S. Senators in the event of a vacancy and to instead have a special primary and general election. Moonen denied that he was motivated by Collins's possible candidacy, saying he was interested only in counterbalancing Republican-sponsored bills to change how the Maine Attorney General and Maine Secretary of State are chosen. Moonen said Collins had told him speculation about her running for governor was "silly." [13] Collins, who was the 1994 Republican nominee for Governor, told MPBN News on January 4, 2016 that though she was "baffled" by the rumors about her being interested in running for governor, many had encouraged her to run, and she would not rule it out. [14] In October 2017, Collins said she would not run for governor in 2018. [15]

No Republican candidate has ruled out challenging the results of a ranked-choice primary in court. Mary Mayhew called for the immediate repeal of RCV, calling it a "scam" and "probably illegal". [16]

The Maine Republican Party filed a federal lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Bangor on May 4, 2018, seeking to bar the use of RCV for its own primary on the grounds that requiring the party to use it violates its First Amendment rights to choose its nominee as it sees fit. [17] U.S. District Court Judge Jon Levy rejected the suit on May 29. [18]

Candidates

Nominated

  • Shawn Moody, businessman and independent candidate for governor in 2010 [19]

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Ken Fredette
Federal politicians
  • Marco Rubio, United States Senator from Florida and 2016 presidential candidate [31]
Garrett Mason
Federal politicians
  • Ted Cruz, United States Senator from Texas and 2016 presidential candidate [32]
Mary Mayhew
Federal politicians
Local and statewide politicians
  • Susan Austin, State Representative [34]
  • Richard Bradstreet, State Representative [34]
  • Richard Campbell, State Representative [34]
  • Paul Chace, State Representative [34]
  • Garrel Craig, State Representative [34]
  • Scott Cyrway, State Senator [34]
  • Robert Foley, State Representative [34]
  • Phyllis Ginzler, State Representative [34]
  • James Hamper, State Senator [34]
  • Jeffery Hanley, State Representative [34]
  • Matthew Harrington, State Representative [34]
  • Stephanie Hawke, State Representative [34]
  • Gary Hilliard, State Representative [34]
  • Chris Johansen, State Representative [34]
  • Jonathan Kinney, State Representative [34]
  • Bob Macdonald, former Mayor of Lewiston [35]
  • Richard Malaby, State Representative [34]
  • Beth O'Connor, State Representative [34]
  • Lester Ordway, State Representative [34]
  • Michael Perkins, State Representative [34]
  • John Picchiotti, State Representative [34]
  • Jeffrey Pierce, State Representative [34]
  • Dwayne Prescott, State Representative [34]
  • Deborah Sanderson, State Representative [34]
  • H. Stedman Seavey, State Representative [34]
  • Abden Simmons, State Representative [34]
  • Paula Sutton, State Representative [34]
  • Timothy Theriault, State Representative [34]
  • Karleton Ward, State Representative [34]
Other individuals
Shawn Moody
Individuals
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
RCV
round
Ken
Fredette
Garrett
Mason
Mary
Mayhew
Shawn
Moody
Undecided
SurveyUSA April 26 – May 1, 2018546± 4.8%Round 110%15%19%34%22%
Round 225%26%49%
Round 334%65%

Results

Republican primary results [40]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Shawn Moody53,43652.6
Republican Garrett Mason21,57121.2
Republican Mary Mayhew14,03413.8
Republican Blank ballots7,2037.1
Republican Ken Fredette5,3415.3
Total votes101,585100.0

Democratic primary

Campaign signs for Democratic candidates for Governor Betsy Sweet, Mark Eves and Adam Cote at the 2018 Maine Democratic convention at the Androscoggin Bank Colisee in Lewiston. Maine Democratic Signs.jpg
Campaign signs for Democratic candidates for Governor Betsy Sweet, Mark Eves and Adam Cote at the 2018 Maine Democratic convention at the Androscoggin Bank Colisée in Lewiston.

Almost all Democratic candidates said that they would abide by the results of the ranked-choice primary, with only Janet Mills refusing to comment on the issue because it was being heard by the courts. [16]

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Failed to make ballot

  • Dominic A. Crocitto [48]
  • Steve DeAngelis, schoolteacher [49]
  • J. Martin Vachon [50]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

All endorsers are Democrats unless otherwise specified

Adam Cote
Federal politicians
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations
  • Maine Council of Machinists [67]
Newspapers
Steve DeAngelis (failed to make ballot)
Individuals
Mark Dion
Local and statewide politicians
  • Benjamin Collings, State Representative [70]
Other individuals
Mark Eves
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Janet Mills
Local and statewide politicians
Other individuals
Organizations
Diane Russell
Organizations
Betsy Sweet
Local and statewide politicians
Other individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
RCV
round
Adam
Cote
Donna
Dion
Mark
Dion
Mark
Eves
Janet
Mills
Diane
Russell
Betsy
Sweet
Undecided
SurveyUSA April 26 – May 1, 2018649± 4.2%Round 19%2%10%16%32%4%5%24%
Round 213%13%20%42%5%6%
Round 313%13%22%43%8%
Round 414%15%24%48%
Round 519%26%55%

Results

Democratic primary results [40]
PartyCandidateRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4
Votes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%
Democratic Janet Mills41,73533.1%+ 2,30744,04235.5%+ 5,90349,94540.8%+ 13,43963,38454.1%
Democratic Adam Cote35,47828.1%+ 2,06537,54330.2%+ 5,08042,62334.8%+ 11,24353,86645.9%
Democratic Betsy Sweet20,76716.5%+ 2,22022,98718.5%+ 6,95729,94424.4%- 29,944Eliminated
Democratic Mark Eves17,88714.2%+ 1,63419,52115.7%- 19,521Eliminated
Democratic Mark Dion5,2004.1%- 5,200Eliminated
Democratic Diane Russell2,7282.2%- 2,728Eliminated
Democratic Donna Dion1,5961.3%- 1,596Eliminated
Democratic Write-ins7480.6%- 748Eliminated
Total votes132,250100.0%

Green Independent primary

Candidates

Withdrawn

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Withdrawn

Independents

Candidates

Declared

^ Capron and Jenkins failed to qualify for the ballot, but continued their campaigns as write-in candidates

Withdrawn

  • Ethan Alcorn, businessman (did not qualify) [106]
  • Alan Caron, president and CEO of Envision Maine (endorsed Mills) [107]
  • Aaron D. Chadbourne, writer and activist [108] (write-in candidate, endorsed Moody) [109]

Failed to make ballot

  • Karmo Sanders, actress [110]

Declined

General election

After the primaries, most prediction models had the race as a tossup, noting Paul LePage's two victories and Hillary Clinton's narrow margin of victory in the state in the 2016 presidential election. Others considered it to be a pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. [114] Both Moody and Mills received the backing of outside money, with one PAC spending in excess of $1 million on television advertising in the state to support Mills's candidacy. [115]

On October 12, Jonathan Martin of the New York Times published an article detailing a sex discrimination complaint filed against Moody and his business in 2006, which Moody settled for $20,000, resulting in the complaint being withdrawn. The complaint alleged that Moody went to the residence of a female employee and fired her for having a child just days after delivering the child via an emergency caesarean section. [116] Moody denied the allegation through a spokesperson and later on Twitter. [117]

Though the first poll of the race saw Mills and Moody tied for first place with Hayes and Caron lagging behind, by the end of October, four different polls were released, each showing Mills with an eight point lead over Moody. FiveThirtyEight declared the race "Likely D" when its gubernatorial projections were released in October, though other prediction models maintained the race as a tossup.

On October 29, in a press conference at the main branch of the Portland Public Library, Caron dropped out of the race and endorsed Mills. His name remained on the ballot, but any votes cast for him were regarded as blank. [118]

Shortly before 10 PM on election night, Hayes conceded the race. [119] At 12:15 AM on November 7, Moody conceded the race to Mills, and shortly thereafter Mills declared victory at Democratic headquarters in Portland. [119] Mills became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to receive more than 300,000 votes in a single election. Mills also became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to win a majority of the vote since Angus King won nearly 59% of the vote in his re-election bid in 1998, and became the first candidate to win a majority of the popular vote for a first term since Kenneth M. Curtis defeated incumbent governor John H. Reed in 1966, though Curtis and Reed were the only candidates in that race.

The general election used plurality voting, not ranked-choice voting.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [120] TossupJanuary 26, 2018
Inside Elections [121] Tilt DSeptember 14, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [122] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [123] Lean DOctober 9, 2018
Daily Kos [124] TossupMay 31, 2018
Fox News [125] [lower-alpha 1] TossupOctober 9, 2018
Politico [126] TossupOctober 9, 2018
Governing [127] TossupOctober 2, 2018
The Washington Post [128] TossupOctober 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [129] Likely DOctober 17, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Terry Hayes (I)
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals
  • Eliot Cutler, attorney and independent candidate for governor (2010 and 2014) [134]
Organizations
Janet Mills (D)
National politicians
Local and statewide politicians
Other individuals
Organizations
Trade unions
Media
Shawn Moody (R)
State and local politicians
Other individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Shawn
Moody (R)
Janet
Mills (D)
Terry
Hayes (I)
Alan
Caron (I)
OtherUndecided
Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes) November 1, 201851838%55%7%
Emerson College October 27–29, 2018883± 3.5%42%50%5%4%
Pan Atlantic Research October 1–7, 2018500± 4.4%36%44%8%2%10%
Change Research September 30 – October 1, 201880144%52%
Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes) September 26–30, 201860033%41%10%2%0%13%
Suffolk University August 2–6, 2018500± 4.4%39%39%4%3%16%

Results

Maine gubernatorial election, 2018 [160]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
Democratic Janet Mills 320,962 50.89% +7.52%
Republican Shawn Moody272,31143.19%-4.99%
Independent Terry Hayes37,2685.91%N/A
Total votes630,667100.0%N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

See also

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References

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  78. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Tomorrow, our campaign is hosting a grassroots rally the Maine State Library in Augusta. Emily's List director Emily Cain, Sen. Dawn Hill, and Sen. Margaret Craven will talk to supporters and voters about Janet's record fighting for women and working families, and her vision for Maine's future". Facebook . Retrieved June 7, 2018.
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  86. Anthony Emerson [@AnthonyEmerso14] (June 1, 2018). "Former Brunswick Senator Brownie Carson has endorsed Betsy Sweet (@Sweet4Governor) in the gubernatorial race #mepolitics" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  87. Davitt, Clare (May 8, 2018). "I hadn't done it yet and I should have sooner but I'm endorsing Sweet For Governor. I hesitated only because of my new position as a public figure and a concern over a complication between my public service where I will work with whomever becomes our next governor and my personal opinions". Facebook. Retrieved May 9, 2018.
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  89. "First stop, Waterville.. with the amazing Karen Kusiak and Colleen Madigan❤️. Here. We. Go". Facebook. June 12, 2018. Retrieved July 31, 2018.
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  136. @JanetMillsforME (October 30, 2018). "I am thrilled to have the support of @JoeBiden, a champion for working people around the country. Our campaign is focused on taking Maine in a new direction that always puts hardworking Mainers first. I can think of no better supporter of that cause than Vice President Biden" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  137. Shepherd, Michael [@mikeshepherdME] (October 12, 2018). "Just confirmed: @AmbassadorRice was at a @JanetMillsforME fundraiser tonight in Rockport, per @swogden10. #mepolitics" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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  139. 1 2 3 4 5 Bottari, Steve (June 21, 2018). "Maine Democrats hold 'unity rally' for gubernatorial nominee Janet Mills". WMTW-TV . Retrieved July 19, 2018.
  140. Drew Gattine [@dgattine] (October 13, 2018). "As we move Maine forward and tackle issues like paid family leave, the high cost of day care, the root cause of poverty and hunger among children, how to support early childhood education, there's no doubt that @JanetMillsforME is head and shoulders the best choice #mepolitics" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  141. Loring, Donna (October 23, 2018). "Letter to the editor: Mills receives tribal elder's personal endorsement in race for governor". Portland Press Herald .
  142. @Spencer4Council (October 29, 2018). "Thank you @alancaron4maine! Maine needs to go vote for @JanetMillsforME 😎! #mepolitics" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  143. Warren, Charlotte (October 19, 2018). "The election is 17 days away. We have an opportunity to turn le page on the past 8 years. Voting for Janet T. Mills is the ONLY pathway to turning that page. She's got my vote. Join me! — with Janet T. Mills". Facebook . Retrieved October 23, 2018.
  144. Farmer, David (October 17, 2018). "Choice for Governor is really between Mills and Moody" . Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  145. Janet Mills [@JanetMillsforME] (July 12, 2018). "Thank you to Governor @JayInslee for joining me today to stand up for Maine people who voted overwhelmingly last year to approve Medicaid expansion. As governor, I will honor their will" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  146. Emerson, Anthony [@AnthonyEmerso14] (September 19, 2018). "Monica Wood is on the host committee for this Sunday's Jammin' With Janet event #mepolitics" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  147. @equalitymaine (September 20, 2018). "We're proud to announce our endorsement of @JanetMillsforME for Governor. She has been a fighter for LGBTQ+ Mainers over her entire career in public service. Her record is strong. Her values are clear. Janet will be a governor we can be proud of! #mepolitics #LGBTQ pic.twitter.com/f9VzXX9m1R" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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  149. "Maine Conservation Voters Action Fund endorses Janet Mills for governor". Penobscot Bay Pilot. June 26, 2018. Retrieved July 19, 2018.
  150. Emerson, Anthony [@AnthonyEmerso14] (August 28, 2018). "In an unsurprising but still noteworthy move, @PPFA has endorsed @JanetMillsforME #mepolitics" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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  156. 1 2 3 4 5 Thistle, Scott (June 19, 2018). "Shawn Moody tells Republicans at rally he'd carry on LePage's legacy". Portland Press Herald . Retrieved July 19, 2018.
  157. WGME (July 18, 2018). "Shawn Moody unveils new advertisement on NASCAR vehicle". WGME-TV . Retrieved July 19, 2018.
  158. "Associated Builders and Contractors of Maine Announces Endorsement of Shawn Moody for Governor". Bangor Daily News . June 28, 2018.
  159. "Sportsman's Alliance endorses Moody". waldo.villagesoup.com. The Republican Journal. September 10, 2018.
  160. Official tabulation of results for Governor~•
Official campaign websites