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County Results Mills: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% Moody: 40–50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Maine | ||||
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The 2018 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next Governor of Maine. It occurred along with elections for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Paul LePage was term limited and could not seek reelection to a third consecutive term in office.
The Governor of Maine is the chief executive of the State of Maine. Before Maine was admitted to the Union in 1820, Maine was part of Massachusetts and the Governor of Massachusetts was chief executive.
The Republican Party, also referred to as the GOP, is one of the two major political parties in the United States; the other is its historic rival, the Democratic Party.
The primaries for this election were the first in Maine to be conducted with ranked choice voting (RCV), as opposed to a simple plurality, after voters passed a citizen referendum approving the change in 2016. [1] An advisory opinion by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court held that RCV would be unconstitutional for general elections for governor and the state legislature. This led state legislators to vote to delay its implementation pending approval of a state constitutional amendment. [2] [3] Backers of a "people's veto" turned in enough signatures to suspend this law until a June referendum vote, which restored RCV for future primary and congressional elections. [4]
An advisory opinion is an opinion issued by a court or a commission like an election commission that does not have the effect of adjudicating a specific legal case, but merely advises on the constitutionality or interpretation of a law. Some countries have procedures by which the executive or legislative branches may certify important questions to the judiciary and obtain an advisory opinion. In other countries or specific jurisdictions, courts may be prohibited from issuing advisory opinions.
The Maine Supreme Judicial Court is the highest court in the state of Maine's judicial system. It is composed of seven justices, who are appointed by the Governor and confirmed by the Maine Senate. From 1820 until 1839, justices served lifetime appointments with a mandatory retirement age of 70. Beginning in 1839, justices are appointed for seven-year terms, with no limit on the number of terms that they may serve.
Governor Paul LePage threatened not to certify the results of the primary elections, saying he would "leave it up to the courts to decide." [5] He also called the use of ranked-choice voting the "most horrific thing in the world." [6] Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap said the results would be binding regardless of whether LePage certified them. [7]
Paul Richard LePage is an American businessman and politician who was the 74th Governor of Maine, from 2011 to 2019. A member of the Republican Party, LePage served two terms as a city councilor in Waterville, Maine, before being elected Mayor of Waterville in 2003, serving until 2011.
Matthew Dunlap is an American politician from Maine. A Democrat, Dunlap is the Secretary of State of Maine, serving since January 7, 2013, and previously served in that same post from 2005 to 2011. In 2012, he sought to become his party's nominee to replace retiring Olympia Snowe, but lost in the primary to State Senator Cynthia Dill. Prior to his first election as Secretary of State in 2005, he represented Old Town in the Maine House of Representatives for four terms beginning in 1996.
The Republican nominee was businessman and 2010 independent candidate for governor Shawn Moody. The Democratic candidate was Attorney General Janet Mills. State Treasurer Terry Hayes and businessman Alan Caron had qualified for the ballot as independents, though Caron dropped out on October 29 and endorsed Mills. Former State Senator and former mayor of Lewiston and Auburn John Jenkins and perennial candidate Kenneth Capron ran write-in campaigns.
The Maine Attorney General is the chief legal advisor and prosecutor of the State of Maine. The constitutional basis of the office is Article IX, Section 11 of the Maine Constitution, and the holder of the position is chosen biennially by the Maine Legislature in joint session. Maine is the only state to select its attorney general in such a manner.
The Maine State Treasurer is a constitutional officer of the State of Maine.
Mills defeated Moody and Hayes to become the first female Governor of Maine. She also became the first gubernatorial candidate to win at least 50% of the vote since Angus King in 1998, and the first non-incumbent to do so since Kenneth M. Curtis in 1966. Mills also became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to earn 300,000 votes.
Angus Stanley King Jr. is an American politician and attorney serving as the junior United States Senator from Maine since 2013. A political independent since 1993, he was the 72nd Governor of Maine from 1995 to 2003.
Kenneth Merwin Curtis is an American lawyer and former politician. He is currently a principal in the law firm of Curtis Thaxter Stevens Broder & Micoleau Limited Liability Company, P.A.
Incumbent Republican Paul LePage is term-limited, having been elected twice consecutively in 2010 and 2014. LePage did not win a majority of the vote either time (receiving 37.6% in a crowded four-way race in 2010 and 48.2% in a three-way race in 2014), with Democrats accusing independent candidate Eliot Cutler of splitting the anti-LePage vote in both instances, though Cutler finished closer to LePage than Democratic candidate Libby Mitchell in the 2010 election. [8]
Eliot Cutler is an American lawyer who was an Independent candidate in Maine's 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial races. In 2010, he placed second in a multi-way race, receiving 208,270 votes, equaling 35.9%, narrowly losing to Republican Paul LePage. In 2014 he garnered only 8.4%, placing third behind both the Democratic candidate as well as LePage, who was re-elected with 48.2% of the vote. Both times, he was claimed to be a spoiler for the Democratic candidate. He has served in the Carter Administration as part of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget.
Elizabeth H. "Libby" Mitchell is an American politician from Maine. Mitchell, a Democrat, represented part of Kennebec County in the Maine Senate from 2004 to 2010. Mitchell was also the Democrats' 2010 candidate for the office of Governor of Maine. She finished in third place behind Republican Paul LePage and unenrolled attorney Eliot Cutler. She is the only woman in United States history to have been elected as both speaker of her state house of representatives and president of her state senate.
Maine's history of governors elected without majorities, including LePage, was one impetus for the citizen's referendum to implement ranked choice voting. [9] [10] Indeed, the last time a gubernatorial candidate received a majority of the vote was in 1998, when incumbent Governor (and current United States Senator) Angus King, an independent, won reelection with 58.6% of the vote. The last time a non-incumbent candidate received more than 50% of the vote was the 1966 gubernatorial election, which Democrat Kenneth M. Curtis won over incumbent Republican John H. Reed with 53.1% of the vote.
Though ranked-choice voting was approved by voters in a 2016 referendum, the Maine Legislature voted to delay and potentially repeal RCV for all elections after an advisory opinion by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court ruled it unconstitutional for general elections for state offices. RCV supporters succeeded in a people's veto effort to prevent the delay, which suspends it until a June 2018 referendum vote. [11] RCV supporters were victorious in the June referendum, and ranked-choice voting will remain in place for state and federal primaries and federal general elections. [12]
Speculation that U.S. Senator Susan Collins was considering running for governor arose during the 2015 Maine Legislative session when Representative Matt Moonen (D-Portland) introduced a bill to strip the governor (LePage at the time) of the power to appoint replacement U.S. Senators in the event of a vacancy and to instead have a special primary and general election. Moonen denied that he was motivated by Collins's possible candidacy, saying he was interested only in counterbalancing Republican-sponsored bills to change how the Maine Attorney General and Maine Secretary of State are chosen. Moonen said Collins had told him speculation about her running for governor was "silly." [13] Collins, who was the 1994 Republican nominee for Governor, told MPBN News on January 4, 2016 that though she was "baffled" by the rumors about her being interested in running for governor, many had encouraged her to run, and she would not rule it out. [14] In October 2017, Collins said she would not run for governor in 2018. [15]
No Republican candidate has ruled out challenging the results of a ranked-choice primary in court. Mary Mayhew called for the immediate repeal of RCV, calling it a "scam" and "probably illegal". [16]
The Maine Republican Party filed a federal lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Bangor on May 4, 2018, seeking to bar the use of RCV for its own primary on the grounds that requiring the party to use it violates its First Amendment rights to choose its nominee as it sees fit. [17] U.S. District Court Judge Jon Levy rejected the suit on May 29. [18]
Ken Fredette |
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Garrett Mason |
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Mary Mayhew |
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Shawn Moody |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | RCV round | Ken Fredette | Garrett Mason | Mary Mayhew | Shawn Moody | Undecided |
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SurveyUSA | April 26 – May 1, 2018 | 546 | ± 4.8% | Round 1 | 10% | 15% | 19% | 34% | 22% |
Round 2 | – | 25% | 26% | 49% | – | ||||
Round 3 | – | – | 34% | 65% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Shawn Moody | 53,436 | 52.6 | |
Republican | Garrett Mason | 21,571 | 21.2 | |
Republican | Mary Mayhew | 14,034 | 13.8 | |
Republican | Blank ballots | 7,203 | 7.1 | |
Republican | Ken Fredette | 5,341 | 5.3 | |
Total votes | 101,585 | 100.0 |
Almost all Democratic candidates said that they would abide by the results of the ranked-choice primary, with only Janet Mills refusing to comment on the issue because it was being heard by the courts. [16]
All endorsers are Democrats unless otherwise specified
Adam Cote |
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Steve DeAngelis (failed to make ballot) |
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Mark Dion |
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Mark Eves |
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Janet Mills |
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Diane Russell |
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Betsy Sweet |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | RCV round | Adam Cote | Donna Dion | Mark Dion | Mark Eves | Janet Mills | Diane Russell | Betsy Sweet | Undecided |
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SurveyUSA | April 26 – May 1, 2018 | 649 | ± 4.2% | Round 1 | 9% | 2% | 10% | 16% | 32% | 4% | 5% | 24% |
Round 2 | 13% | – | 13% | 20% | 42% | 5% | 6% | |||||
Round 3 | 13% | – | 13% | 22% | 43% | – | 8% | |||||
Round 4 | 14% | – | 15% | 24% | 48% | – | – | |||||
Round 5 | – | – | 19% | 26% | 55% | – | – |
Democratic primary results [40] | |||||||||||||||
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Party | Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | ||||||||||
Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | |||||
Democratic | Janet Mills | 41,735 | 33.1% | + 2,307 | 44,042 | 35.5% | + 5,903 | 49,945 | 40.8% | + 13,439 | 63,384 | 54.1% | |||
Democratic | Adam Cote | 35,478 | 28.1% | + 2,065 | 37,543 | 30.2% | + 5,080 | 42,623 | 34.8% | + 11,243 | 53,866 | 45.9% | |||
Democratic | Betsy Sweet | 20,767 | 16.5% | + 2,220 | 22,987 | 18.5% | + 6,957 | 29,944 | 24.4% | - 29,944 | Eliminated | ||||
Democratic | Mark Eves | 17,887 | 14.2% | + 1,634 | 19,521 | 15.7% | - 19,521 | Eliminated | |||||||
Democratic | Mark Dion | 5,200 | 4.1% | - 5,200 | Eliminated | ||||||||||
Democratic | Diane Russell | 2,728 | 2.2% | - 2,728 | Eliminated | ||||||||||
Democratic | Donna Dion | 1,596 | 1.3% | - 1,596 | Eliminated | ||||||||||
Democratic | Write-ins | 748 | 0.6% | - 748 | Eliminated | ||||||||||
Total votes | 132,250 | 100.0% |
^ Capron and Jenkins failed to qualify for the ballot, but continued their campaigns as write-in candidates
After the primaries, most prediction models had the race as a tossup, noting Paul LePage's two victories and Hillary Clinton's narrow margin of victory in the state in the 2016 presidential election. Others considered it to be a pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. [114] Both Moody and Mills received the backing of outside money, with one PAC spending in excess of $1 million on television advertising in the state to support Mills's candidacy. [115]
On October 12, Jonathan Martin of the New York Times published an article detailing a sex discrimination complaint filed against Moody and his business in 2006, which Moody settled for $20,000, resulting in the complaint being withdrawn. The complaint alleged that Moody went to the residence of a female employee and fired her for having a child just days after delivering the child via an emergency caesarean section. [116] Moody denied the allegation through a spokesperson and later on Twitter. [117]
Though the first poll of the race saw Mills and Moody tied for first place with Hayes and Caron lagging behind, by the end of October, four different polls were released, each showing Mills with an eight point lead over Moody. FiveThirtyEight declared the race "Likely D" when its gubernatorial projections were released in October, though other prediction models maintained the race as a tossup.
On October 29, in a press conference at the main branch of the Portland Public Library, Caron dropped out of the race and endorsed Mills. His name remained on the ballot, but any votes cast for him were regarded as blank. [118]
Shortly before 10 PM on election night, Hayes conceded the race. [119] At 12:15 AM on November 7, Moody conceded the race to Mills, and shortly thereafter Mills declared victory at Democratic headquarters in Portland. [119] Mills became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to receive more than 300,000 votes in a single election. Mills also became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to win a majority of the vote since Angus King won nearly 59% of the vote in his re-election bid in 1998, and became the first candidate to win a majority of the popular vote for a first term since Kenneth M. Curtis defeated incumbent governor John H. Reed in 1966, though Curtis and Reed were the only candidates in that race.
The general election used plurality voting, not ranked-choice voting.
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report [120] | Tossup | January 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections [121] | Tilt D | September 14, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [122] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [123] | Lean D | October 9, 2018 |
Daily Kos [124] | Tossup | May 31, 2018 |
Fox News [125] [lower-alpha 1] | Tossup | October 9, 2018 |
Politico [126] | Tossup | October 9, 2018 |
Governing [127] | Tossup | October 2, 2018 |
The Washington Post [128] | Tossup | October 16, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight [129] | Likely D | October 17, 2018 |
Terry Hayes (I) |
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Janet Mills (D) |
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Shawn Moody (R) |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Shawn Moody (R) | Janet Mills (D) | Terry Hayes (I) | Alan Caron (I) | Other | Undecided |
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Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes) | November 1, 2018 | 518 | – | 38% | 55% | 7% | – | – | – |
Emerson College | October 27–29, 2018 | 883 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 50% | – | – | 5% | 4% |
Pan Atlantic Research | October 1–7, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 44% | 8% | 2% | – | 10% |
Change Research | September 30 – October 1, 2018 | 801 | – | 44% | 52% | – | – | – | – |
Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes) | September 26–30, 2018 | 600 | – | 33% | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 13% |
Suffolk University | August 2–6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 39% | 39% | 4% | 3% | – | 16% |
Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
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Democratic | Janet Mills | 320,962 | 50.89% | +7.52% | |
Republican | Shawn Moody | 272,311 | 43.19% | -4.99% | |
Independent | Terry Hayes | 37,268 | 5.91% | N/A | |
Total votes | 630,667 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
Democratic gain from Republican |
The Maine Green Independent Party is a state-level political party affiliated with the Green Party of the United States. It is the oldest state green party in the United States. It was founded following an informal meeting of 18 environmental advocates, including Bowdoin College professor John Rensenbrink and others in Augusta, Maine in January 1984. From 1994 to 2006, the party's gubernatorial nominees received between 6% and 10% of the vote.
The Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram is a morning daily newspaper with a website at pressherald.com that serves southern Maine and is focused on the greater metropolitan area around Portland, Maine, in the United States.
The 2010 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Baldacci was term-limited and unable to seek re-election. Primary elections took place on June 8, 2010. The candidates who appeared on the November ballot were : Eliot Cutler (Independent), Paul LePage (Republican), Libby Mitchell (Democrat), Shawn Moody (Independent), and Kevin Scott (Independent).
Janet Trafton Mills is an American lawyer and politician serving as the 75th Governor of Maine, since January 2019. She previously served as the Attorney General of Maine on two separate occasions.
The 2014 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Maine. Incumbent Republican governor Paul LePage ran for re-election to a second term in office, against sitting congressman from the second district, Mike Michaud, and second-place finisher from the 2010 gubernatorial election, attorney Eliot Cutler. The primary elections were held on June 10, 2014.
The 2014 United States Senate election in Maine took place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins, who has served in the position since 1997, won reelection to a fourth term in office with 68% of the vote. The primary elections were held on June 10, 2014.
Teresea M. "Terry" Hayes is an American politician from Maine who served as the Maine State Treasurer and a candidate for Governor of Maine in 2018. A political independent, Hayes represented part of Oxford County, Maine, including her residence in Buckfield, Maine, as a Democrat from 2006 to 2014. She was unable to seek re-election to the Maine House of Representatives in 2014 due to term-limits.
The 2015 Portland, Maine mayoral election was an election for Mayor of Portland, Maine scheduled for November 3, 2015. It was the second election since Portland voters approved a citywide referendum changing the city charter to recreate an elected mayor position in 2010.
The 2018 United States Senate election in Maine was held on November 6, 2018, alongside a gubernatorial election, U.S. House elections, and other state and local elections. Incumbent Independent Senator Angus King won reelection to a second term.
The 2018 Illinois gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Illinois, concurrently with the 2018 Illinois general election. Incumbent Republican Governor Bruce Rauner ran for re-election to a second term in office, but was defeated by Democratic nominee J. B. Pritzker. This was the second consecutive Illinois gubernatorial election in which the incumbent ran and lost.
Maine Question 1 was a people's veto referendum that appeared on the June 12, 2018 statewide ballot. It sought to reject a law passed by the Maine Legislature that suspended the implementation of ranked choice voting, authorized by Maine voters in a previous referendum, for use in Maine elections until and if an amendment to the Maine Constitution is passed to expressly permit it; failing that, the law would be automatically repealed in 2021. It qualified because supporters of the original referendum collected the necessary number of signatures from registered Maine voters. This vote coincided with primary elections in which party nominees for governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and the Maine Legislature were chosen to run in general elections on November 6.
Maine Question 5, formally An Act to Establish Ranked-Choice Voting, is a citizen-initiated referendum question that qualified for the Maine November 8, 2016 statewide ballot and was approved by a margin of 52% to 48%. It would change how most Maine elections will be conducted from a plurality voting system to a ranked-choice voting system. It appeared on the ballot along with elections for President of the United States, Maine's two U.S. House seats, the legislature, five other ballot questions, and various local elections. Maine would be the first state to use such a system for its statewide elections for governor and U.S. Senate if implemented.
The 2018 Connecticut gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor and lieutenant governor of Connecticut, concurrently with the election of Connecticut's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2020 United States Senate election in Maine will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maine, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the two U.S. Representatives from the state of Maine, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections coincided with elections to the United States Senate, a gubernatorial election, and various state and local elections.
Maine Question 2, formally titled "An Act To Enhance Access to Affordable Health Care", is a citizen-initiated ballot measure that has qualified for the November 7, 2017 statewide ballot. It seeks to expand Medicaid eligibility under the terms of the Affordable Care Act, something which has been vetoed six times by Maine Gov. Paul LePage.
Maine Question 1 is a citizen-initiated referendum that appeared on the November 6, 2018 statewide ballot. It sought to implement a tax on higher incomes in Maine to fund in-home health care services for elderly and disabled Mainers, as well as to create a government board to administer the funds. The vote coincided with general elections for governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, the Maine Legislature, and other local elections. It qualified for the ballot due to supporters collecting signatures from registered Maine voters.
Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap said the election results would be binding anyway, the Portland Press Herald said.