NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament upsets

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An upset is a victory by an underdog team. In the context of the NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament, a single-elimination tournament, this generally constitutes a lower seeded team defeating a higher-seeded (i.e., higher-ranked) team; a widely recognized upset is one performed by a team ranked substantially lower than its opponent.

Contents

This is the list of victories by teams seeded 11 or lower in the first round and second rounds of the tournament, as well as those by teams seeded 8 or 9 against 1 and 7 or 10 against 2 seeds in the second round, since it expanded to 64 teams in 1994; as these low-seeded teams were automatically paired against higher-seeded teams at the start of the tournament, their opening victories are almost always considered upsets. Most victories by these teams in later rounds were usually against better seeded opponents as well. The list also includes victories by teams seeded 8 or lower in the Sweet 16 (the four regional semifinals), teams seeded 7 or lower in the Elite Eight (the four regional finals), and teams seeded 6 or lower in the Final Four. All teams are listed by athletic brand names they used at the time of their wins, which do not always match those in use today.

The NCAA defines a tournament "upset" as a victory by a team seeded 5 or more lines below its defeated opponent.

The first 16 seed ever to win a game in an NCAA Division I basketball tournament was Harvard in 1998 against Stanford. According to an Associated Press retrospective on the 10th anniversary of the game in 2008, "The difference between the teams was much smaller than usual for a No. 1 and a 16 seed." [1] Harvard had two years of tournament experience and the nation's leading scorer that season in Allison Feaster. Stanford suffered two devastating injuries during the run-up to the tournament. First, Vanessa Nygaard tore an ACL in the Cardinal's final regular-season game against Oregon State. Because the extent of her injury was not known at the time the tournament field was selected, the Cardinal still received a 1 seed. Then, in the team's first practice after the tournament selection, leading scorer and rebounder Kristin Folkl also tore an ACL. [1]

Most successful low seeds

Best outcomes for low seeds since expansion to 64 teams in 1994:

Seed2nd RoundSweet SixteenElite EightFinal FourChampionship GameNational Champion
No. 16

Harvard (1998)

No. 15
No. 14
No. 13
No. 12numerous (22 teams)
No. 11numerous (26 teams)

numerous (10 teams)

No. 10
No. 9
No. 8
No. 7

numerous (10 teams)

No. 6

Best Performances by #16 Seeds

Other than Harvard beating Stanford in 1998, no losing #16 seed has even lost by single digits and/or taken a game to overtime, with the closest margin of defeat being a 12-point loss by #16 Grambling to #1 Texas Tech in the same tournament.

Best Performances by #14 & #15 Seeds

No #14 seed has beaten a #3 and no #15 seed has beaten a #2 seed, but they have come close.

Round of 64

Detail between each pair of seeds in this section has been updated as of completion of the 2024 Round of 64, representing 120 games played between each pair.

16 defeats 1

There has been 1 game where a 16-seed has defeated a 1-seed (

YearWinnerLoserScore
1998 HarvardStanford 71–67

15 defeats 2

No 15-seed has ever won a game in the women's tournament.

The closest any 15 seed came to winning was in 2017, when Long Beach State lost 56–55 to 2 seed Oregon State.

14 defeats 3

No 14-seed has ever won a game in the women's tournament.

The closest any 14 seed has come to winning are the three 2-point losses to 3 seeds in 2003, 2004, and 2012.

13 defeats 4

There have been 7 games where a 13-seed has defeated a 4-seed (

YearWinnerLoserScore
1994 Texas A&MFlorida78–76
2000 RiceUC Santa Barbara67–64
2004 Middle TennesseeNorth Carolina67–62
2005 LibertyPenn State78–70
2007 MaristOhio State67–63
2012 MaristGeorgia76–70
2021 Wright StateArkansas66–62

12 defeats 5

There have been 26 games where a 12-seed has defeated a 5-seed (

YearWinnerLoserScore
1994Western KentuckyRutgers84–73
1995 MontanaSan Diego State57–46
1996 Notre DamePurdue73–60
San FranciscoFlorida68–61
1997 MarquetteClemson70–66
1998Colorado StateDrake81–75
Youngstown StateMemphis91–80
2000SMUNC State64–63
2002 Mississippi StateBoston College65–59
UC Santa BarbaraLouisiana Tech57–56
2004MarylandMiami (FL)86–85
2005Middle TennesseeNC State60–58
2006 TulsaNC State71–61
2009 Ball StateTennessee71–55
GonzagaXavier75–59
2010 Green BayVirginia69–67
2013 KansasColorado67–52
2014 BYUNC State72–57
2016 South Dakota StateMiami (FL)74–71
AlbanyFlorida61–59
2017 QuinnipiacMarquette68–65
2018 Florida Gulf CoastMissouri80–70
2021BelmontGonzaga64–59
2022 BelmontOregon73–702 OT
Florida Gulf CoastVirginia Tech84–81
2023 Florida Gulf CoastWashington State74–63
ToledoIowa State80–73

11 defeats 6

There have been 37 games where an 11-seed has defeated a 6-seed (

YearWinnerLoserScore
1995LouisvilleOregon67–65
1996Stephen F. AustinOregon State67–65
1998UC Santa BarbaraVanderbilt76–71OT
Virginia TechWisconsin75–64
1999 Saint Joseph'sDuke83–72
SMUToledo91–76
2000Stephen F. AustinXavier73–72
UABOregon80–79OT
2001 TCUPenn State77–75
2002BYUFlorida90–52
2003 Notre DameArizona59–47
2004UC Santa BarbaraColorado76–49
2006HartfordTemple64–58
New MexicoFlorida83–59
TCUTexas A&M69–65
2007West VirginiaXavier65–52
2008 Florida StateOhio State60–49
2009Mississippi StateTexas71–63
2010Arkansas–Little RockGeorgia Tech63–53
San Diego StateTexas74–63
2011 GonzagaIowa92–86
2012GonzagaRutgers86–73
KansasNebraska57–49
2014FloridaDayton83–69
James MadisonGonzaga72–63
2015 GonzagaGeorge Washington82–69
Miami (FL)Washington86–80
Arkansas-Little RockTexas A&M69–60
2018Central MichiganLSU78–69
BuffaloSouth Florida102–79
CreightonIowa76–70
2019 Missouri StateDePaul89–78
2021BYURutgers69–66
2022PrincetonKentucky69–62
VillanovaBYU61–57
2023Mississippi StateCreighton79–64
2024 Middle TennesseeLouisville71–69

Round of 32

This round is called the second round. Occasionally, it is referred to as the regional quarterfinals.

This shows all Round of 32 upset victories by teams seeded 11 or lower, continuing their upset victories from the round of 64. This section introduces additional "meeting criteria of team seeded 5 or more lines below its defeated opponent", being all Round of 32 upset victories by teams seeded 8 or 9 against 1 seeds and by teams seeded 7 or 10 against 2 seeds.

16th seed victories

No 16 seed has ever won a second-round game. Harvard, the only 16 seed to advance to the second round, lost to 9 seed Arkansas 82–64 in the second round.

13th seed victories

Three of the seven 13 seeds (

All of the 13 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 faced a 5 seed.

YearWinnerLoserScore
1994Texas A&M(5) San Diego State75–72OT
2005Liberty(5) DePaul88–79
2007Marist(5) Middle Tennessee73–59

12th seed victories

Four of the twenty-six 12 seeds (

All of the 12 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 faced a 4 seed.

YearWinnerLoserScore
1996San Francisco(4) Duke64–60
2013Kansas(4) South Carolina75–69
2014BYU(4) Nebraska80–76
2017Quinnipiac(4) Miami (FL)85–78

11th seed victories

Eleven of the thirty-seven 11 seeds (

All of the 11 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 faced a 3 seed.

YearWinnerLoserScore
1996Stephen F. Austin(3) Clemson93–88OT
2000UAB(3) Mississippi State78–72
2002BYU(3) Iowa State75–69
2003Notre Dame(3) Kansas State59–53
2004UC Santa Barbara(3) Houston56–52
2010San Diego State(3) West Virginia64–55
2011Gonzaga(3) UCLA89–75
2012Gonzaga(3) Miami (FL)65–54
Kansas(3) Delaware70–64
2015Gonzaga(3) Oregon State76–65
2018Central Michigan(3) Ohio State95–78
Buffalo(3) Florida State86–65
2019Missouri State(3) Iowa State69–60

10th seed victories

Five of the forty-one 10 seeds (

All of the 10 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 faced a 2 seed.

YearWinnerLoserScore
2001Missouri(2) Georgia78-65
2007Florida State(2) Stanford68-81
2017Oregon(2) Duke74-65
2022South Dakota(2) Baylor61-47
Creighton(2) Iowa64-62

9th seed victories

Four of the fifty-nine 9 seeds (

One of these victories was against a lower seeded team that had also advanced from the round of 64 due to upset; thus, this second-round victory does not count as an upset, and has been shown here in a table separate from the three upset wins by 9 seeds in the second round. Three of the fifty-eight 9 seeds who have faced a 1 seed advanced to the Sweet Sixteen (

Defeated a lower seed
YearWinnerLoserScore
1998Arkansas(16) Harvard82-64
Second Round upsets
YearWinnerLoserScore
1998Notre Dame(1) Texas Tech74-59
2009Michigan State(1) Duke63-49
2023Miami (FL)(1) Indiana70-68

8th seed victories

Two of the sixty-one 8 seeds (

Both of the 8 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 faced a 1 seed.

YearWinnerLoserScore
2006Boston College(1) Ohio State68-45
2023Ole Miss(1) Stanford54-49

7th seed victories

Sixteen of the seventy-nine 7 seeds (

All of the 7 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 faced a 2 seed.

YearWinnerLoserScore
1995NC State(2) Penn State76-74
2002Drake(2) Baylor76-72
Old Dominion(2) Purdue74-70OT
2004Minnesota(2) Kansas State80-61
2007Bowling Green(2) Vanderbilt59-56
Ole Miss(2) Maryland89-78
2009Rutgers(2) Auburn80-52
2010Gonzaga(2) Texas A&M72-71
Mississippi State(2) Ohio State85-67
2011Louisville(2) Xavier85-75
2014LSU(2) West Virginia76-67
DePaul(2) Duke74-65
2015Dayton(2) Kentucky99-94
2016Washington(2) Maryland74-65
Tennessee(2) Arizona State75-64
2024Duke(2) Ohio State75-63

Sweet Sixteen

The Sweet Sixteen are the eight pairs of teams that meet in the Regional semifinals.

13 seeds

Although three 13 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen, none of them won their games in this round. The closest margin of defeat happened in 2007, when Marist lost to 1 seed Tennessee by 19 points.

12 seeds

Although four 12 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen, none of them won their games in this round. The closest margin of defeat happened in 2014, when BYU lost to 1 seed UConn by 19 points.

11 seeds

One of the eleven 11 seeds (

YearWinnerLoserScore
2011Gonzaga(7) Louisville76–69

Not officially an upset because the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.

10 seeds

Two of the five 10 seeds (

YearWinnerLoserScore
2017Oregon(3) Maryland77-63
2022Creighton(3) Iowa State76-68

9 seeds

Two of the four 9 seeds (

YearWinnerLoserScore
1998Arkansas(5) Kansas79-63
2023Miami (FL)(4) Villanova70-65

Not officially an upset because the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.

Elite Eight

The Elite Eight are the four pairs of teams that meet in the Regional Finals.

11 seeds

The only 11 seed who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen, Gonzaga in 2011, was defeated in the Elite Eight by one-seed North Carolina, 83-60.

10 seeds

Although two 10 seeds have advanced from the Sweet Sixteen, both were defeated in the Elite Eight: Oregon to top-seeded UConn, 90-52 in 2017, and Creighton to top-seeded South Carolina, 80-50 in 2022.

9 seeds

One of the two 9 seeds who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight. Seed of the team they defeated is in parentheses, showing that this was an upset victory (separated by more than 4 seed lines). The team did not win in the Final Four.

YearWinnerLoserScore
1998Arkansas(2) Duke77-72

7 seeds

Two of the six 7 seeds who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses, showing that one of these was an upset victory (separated by more than 4 seed lines). Neither team won in the Final Four.

YearWinnerLoserScore
2004Minnesota(1) Duke82-75
2016Washington(4) Stanford85-76

Not officially an upset because the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.

6 seeds

Two 6 seeds have advanced to the Final Four. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses, showing that one of these was an upset victory (separated by more than 4 seed lines). Neither team won in the Final Four.

YearWinnerLoserScore
1994Alabama(1) Penn State96–82
1997Notre Dame(5) George Washington62–52

Not officially an upset because the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.

Final Four

The Final Four are the winners of the four Regional Finals.

To date, no team has ever completed an official upset in the Final Four. The most seed lines apart a winning lower seed has been is three, achieved by 5 seed Louisville, who beat 2 seed California 64-57 in 2013.

9 seeds

The only 9 seed who advanced from the Elite Eight, Arkansas in 1998, was defeated in the Final Four by one-seed Tennessee, 86-58.

7 seeds

Although two 7 seeds have advanced from the Sweet Sixteen, both were defeated in the Final Four: Minnesota to second-seeded UConn, 67-58 in 2004, and Washington to fourth-seeded Syracuse, 80-59 in 2016.

6 seeds

Although two 6 seeds have advanced from the Elite Eight, neither faced a 1 seed (which winning against would be considered an official upset), and both were defeated in the Final Four: Alabama to fourth-seeded Louisiana Tech, 69-66 in 1994, and Notre Dame to third-seeded Tennessee, 80-66 in 1997.

National Championship

To date, no team has ever completed an official upset in the National Championship. The most seed lines apart a winning lower seed has been is two, achieved by 3 seed Tennessee, who beat 1 seed Old Dominion 68-59 in 1997.

The lowest seed to ever make a National Championship is 5 seed Louisville in 2013, who lost to 1 seed UConn 93–60.

The lowest seed to ever win a National Championship is a 3 seed, achieved by 1994 North Carolina, 1997 Tennessee, and 2023 LSU.

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 "No. 16 Harvard over No. 1 Stanford still resonates 10 years later". ESPN.com . Associated Press. March 18, 2008. Retrieved March 26, 2013.