The effects of tropical cyclones in Europe and their extratropical remnants include strong winds, heavy rainfall, and in rare instances, tornadoes or snowfall. Only two modern cyclones officially are being regarded as directly impacting mainland Europe while still fully tropical or subtropical: Hurricane Vince in 2005, which struck southwestern Spain as a tropical depression; and Subtropical Storm Alpha in 2020, which made landfall in northern Portugal at peak intensity. It is possible that Hurricane Debbie in 1961, may have been tropical still, when it made landfall in northwestern Ireland, but this is disputed. [nb 1] It is believed that a hurricane struck Europe in 1842.
Atlantic hurricanes generally do not form east of the 30th meridian west, and those that do typically continue to the west. Storms can move around the Bermuda high and turn to the northeast and affect Europe. Several extratropical cyclones have struck Europe, and they were called colloquially "hurricanes". Some of these European windstorms had hurricane-force winds of greater than 119 km/h (74 mph). Those storms are not included in this list. [1]
Advanced meteorological observation stations and ship reports allowed Atlantic hurricanes to be tracked for extended durations, including to the European mainland in some cases, beginning in the 1860s. Most storms that affected Europe have done so from August to October, which is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. In a survey of such European tropical cyclones from 1961 to 2010, Dr. Kieran Hickey observed that the storms generally formed west of Africa and recurved to the northeast, or formed off the east coast of the United States and proceeded eastward. Ireland and the United Kingdom experience the most effects, due to their positions far to the west of the rest of Europe. Countries that are as far to the east as Estonia [2] and Russia [3] have experienced tropical cyclone impacts.
Tropical-like systems, referred to as "medicanes," [4] are occasionally observed over the Mediterranean. Several of these storms have developed eye-like features and hurricane-force winds; however, their nature is contrary to that of a tropical cyclone. The majority of these storm originate from deep, cold-core lows which they do not fully disassociate from. Additionally, unlike tropical systems, sea surface temperatures above 26 °C (79 °F) are not required for their development. [5]
The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute predicted that by the year 2100, global warming would increase greatly the threat of hurricane-force winds to western Europe from former tropical cyclones and hybrid storms, the latter similar to Hurricane Sandy in 2012, in a paper published in April 2013. [6] One model predicted an increase from 2 to 13 in the number of cyclones with hurricane-force winds in the waters offshore western Europe. The study suggested that conditions favorable for tropical cyclones would expand 1,100 km (680 mi) to the east. A separate study based out of University of Castilla–La Mancha predicted that hurricanes would develop in the Mediterranean Sea in Septembers by the year 2100, which would threaten countries in southern Europe. [7]
The 1958 Atlantic hurricane season included every tropical cyclone either affecting or threatening land. There were ten named storms as well as one pre-season tropical storm. Seven of the storms became hurricanes, including five that were major hurricanes, or the equivalent of a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The strongest storm was Hurricane Helene, which became a strong Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph (240 km/h) winds and a barometric pressure of 930 mbar while just offshore the southeastern United States.
The 1959 Atlantic hurricane season had a then record-tying number of tropical cyclones – five – develop before August 1. The season was officially to begin on June 15, 1959 and last until November 15, 1959, the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin, however in actuality the season began early when Tropical Storm Arlene formed on May 28. Tropical Storm Arlene struck Louisiana and brought minor flooding to the Gulf Coast of the United States. The next storm, Beulah, formed in the western Gulf of Mexico and brought negligible impact to Mexico and Texas. Later in June, an unnamed hurricane, nicknamed the Escuminac disaster, caused minor damage in Florida and devastated coastal Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, after becoming extratropical. Hurricane Cindy brought minor impact to The Carolinas. In late July, Hurricane Debra produced flooding in the state of Texas. Tropical Storm Edith in August and Hurricane Flora in September caused negligible impact on land.
The 1961 Atlantic hurricane season was a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) total of 189. The season, however, was an average one in terms of named storms. The season featured eight hurricanes and a well above average number of five major hurricanes. It was previously thought that the season had a record-tying seven major hurricanes, before the Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project downgraded two storms in 2019. Two Category 5 hurricanes were seen in 1961, making it one of only seven Atlantic hurricane seasons to feature multiple Category 5 hurricanes in one season. The season started on June 15, and ended on November 15. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The first system, an operationally unclassified tropical depression, formed offshore east Central Florida on June 10, but dissipated a few days later. Next, Hurricane Anna developed in the eastern Caribbean Sea near the Windward Islands on July 20. It brought minor damage to the islands, as well as wind and flood impacts to Central America after striking Belize as a hurricane. Anna caused one death and about $300,000 (1961 USD) in damage. Activity went dormant for nearly a month and a half, until Hurricane Betsy developed on September 2. Betsy peaked as a Category 4 hurricane, but remained at sea and caused no impact.
The 1962 Atlantic hurricane season featured Hurricanes Daisy and Ella – two tropical cyclones that showed the latest dates for the fourth and fifth named storms on record since tropical cyclones were first named in the North Atlantic ocean, starting in 1950, when they both formed on September 29 and October 14. On the same hand, it was the least active since 1939, with only five named storms. Although the season officially began on June 15, the first named storm did not form until August 26, the third-latest date. Hurricane Alma brushed the Outer Banks before becoming extratropical southeast of New England, destroying hundreds of boats and producing beneficial rainfall. In late August, Tropical Storm Becky developed unusually far east in the Atlantic Ocean, becoming the easternmost storm on record to recurve to the northeast. Celia followed in the September, forming east of the Lesser Antilles and executing a loop near Bermuda before dissipating. Hurricane Daisy, the latest fourth named storm, was the costliest of the season, leaving about $1.1 million in damage in New England (1962 USD). The storm dropped the highest rainfall total on record in Maine, and its precipitation caused 22 traffic fatalities. The final hurricane – Ella – the latest fifth named storm – was also the strongest, remaining offshore of the eastern United States but causing two deaths.
The 1966 Atlantic hurricane season saw the Weather Bureau office in Miami, Florida, be designated as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and assume responsibility of tropical cyclone forecasting in the basin. The season officially began on June 1, and lasted until November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. It was an above-average season in terms of tropical storms, with a total of 15. The first system, Hurricane Alma, developed over eastern Nicaragua on June 4 and became the most recent major hurricane in the month of June. Alma brought severe flooding to Honduras and later to Cuba, but caused relatively minor impact in the Southeastern United States. Alma resulted in 91 deaths and about $210.1 million (1966 USD) in damage.
The 1902 Atlantic hurricane season featured five known tropical cyclones, three of which made landfall in the United States. The first system was initially observed in the northwestern Caribbean on June 12. The last system dissipated on November 6 while located well southeast of Newfoundland. These dates fall within the period with the most tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. None of the systems existed simultaneously.
Hurricane Lili was a relatively long-lived hurricane of the 1996 Atlantic hurricane season that affected countries from Central America to the United Kingdom. Lili formed on October 14 from a tropical wave, which emerged from the coast of west Africa on October 4. After the storm formed, further strengthening of Lili was gradual, first to tropical storm status on October 16 and then to hurricane status on October 17. The next day, Lili struck Cuba and moved across the central portion of the island, the first hurricane to hit the country since Hurricane Kate in 1985. After emerging into the Atlantic Ocean, the hurricane accelerated northeastward, briefly peaking as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale near the Bahamas. For almost an entire week, Hurricane Lili oscillated in intensity while fluctuating several times in forward speed. About two weeks passed before Lili transitioned into an extratropical storm north of the Azores on October 27, which subsequently moved across Ireland and Great Britain.
Hurricane Charley was the second hurricane to threaten the East Coast of the United States within a year's timeframe, after Hurricane Gloria of 1985. The third tropical storm and second hurricane of the season, Charley formed as a subtropical low on August 13 along the Florida panhandle. After moving off the coast of South Carolina, the system transitioned into a tropical cyclone and intensified into a tropical storm on August 15. Charley later attained hurricane status before moving across eastern North Carolina. It gradually weakened over the north Atlantic Ocean before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on August 20. Charley's remnants remained identifiable for over a week, until after crossing Ireland and Great Britain they dissipated on August 30.
Tropical Storm Josephine was an unusual Atlantic tropical storm that moved from west to east across the Gulf of Mexico in October 1996. It formed on October 4 as a tropical depression from the remnants of a cold front. Early in its duration, the system interacted with a ridge over the central United States, which produced strong winds and high tides along the Texas coast. The outer rainbands caused flooding rainfall in southern Texas, and in Louisiana, high tides flooded roads and stranded residents on Grand Isle. Moving generally to the east due to a trough, the depression intensified into a tropical storm on October 6, and the next day reached peak winds of 70 mph (110 km/h) while approaching the west coast of Florida. Josephine made landfall in Taylor County near peak intensity early on October 8, and soon after became extratropical. While moving ashore, the storm produced a high storm surge reaching 9.3 ft (2.8 m) in Suwannee. High tides flooded about 3,600 houses along the west coast. Josephine also produced heavy rainfall, which flooded hundreds of homes, and high winds, which left 400,000 people without power. The storm also spawned at least 16 tornadoes, one of which damaged 130 homes.
Tropical Storm Alberto was the first tropical storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. Forming on June 10 in the northwestern Caribbean, the storm moved generally to the north, reaching a maximum intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h) before weakening and moving ashore in the Big Bend area of Florida on June 13. Alberto then moved through eastern Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia as a tropical depression before becoming extratropical on June 14.
Subtropical Storm Nicole was the first subtropical storm to receive a name using the standard hurricane name list that did not become a tropical cyclone. The fifteenth tropical or subtropical cyclone and fourteenth named storm of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, Nicole developed on October 10 near Bermuda from a broad surface low that developed as a result of the interaction between an upper level trough and a decaying cold front. The storm turned to the northeast, passing close to Bermuda as it intensified to reach peak winds of 50 mph on October 11. Deep convection developed near the center of the system as it attempted to become a fully tropical cyclone. However, it failed to do so and was absorbed by an extratropical cyclone late on October 11.
Hurricane Gordon was the first tropical cyclone since 1992 to affect the Azores while retaining tropical characteristics. The eighth tropical storm, third hurricane, and first major hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, Gordon formed on September 10 in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. It gradually matured into a hurricane as it tracked northward, reaching its peak intensity with winds of 195 km/h (121 mph) early on September 14 while located about 925 km (575 mi) southeast of Bermuda. After becoming nearly stationary, Gordon weakened to minimal hurricane status, although it re-intensified after accelerating to the east. It weakened again after moving over cooler waters, and passed through the Azores on September 20. Shortly thereafter, it became an extratropical cyclone and subsequently affected Spain, Ireland, and the United Kingdom.
Tropical Storm Grace holds the record for being the farthest northeast forming tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. The seventh named storm of the slightly below average 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, Grace formed from an extratropical cyclone over the Azores on 4 October. It strengthened to attain peak sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) and developed an eye-like feature, although cold sea surface temperatures inhibited the development of thunderstorm activity near the center. The storm lost its tropical characteristics on 6 October, and the storm's remnants merged with a separate system near the British Isles on 7 October.
The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a below-average hurricane season in terms of named storms and major hurricanes, though average in terms of number of hurricanes overall. It produced nine tropical cyclones, eight of which became named storms; six storms became hurricanes and two intensified further into major hurricanes. The season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The first storm of the season, Arthur, developed on July 1, while the final storm, Hanna, dissipated on October 28, about a month prior to the end of the season. 2014 is the most recent year with an average or below average number of named Atlantic storms.
Hurricane Rafael produced minor damage in the northeastern Caribbean Sea in mid-October 2012. The seventeenth named storm and ninth hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season, Rafael originated from a tropical wave roughly 230 mi (370 km) south-southeast of Saint Croix on October 12; because the system already contained tropical storm-force winds, it skipped tropical depression status. Though initially disorganized due to moderate wind shear, a subsequent decrease allowed for shower and thunderstorm activity to develop in earnest by October 14. While moving north-northwestward the following morning, Rafael intensified into a Category 1 hurricane. A cold front off the East Coast of the United States caused the system to turn northward and eventually northeastward by October 16, at which time Rafael attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph (150 km/h). As the cyclone entered a more stable atmosphere and tracked across increasingly cooler sea surface temperatures, it began extratropical transition, a process the system completed by the following afternoon. However, Rafael's extratropical remnant persisted for another nine days, with the storm looping around a larger extratropical low over the north-central Atlantic, before turning southeastward and then eastward. Rafael's remnant later made landfall on Portugal on October 26, before dissipating later that day.
Since 1656, at least 300 tropical cyclones have affected the Mascarene Islands in the southern Indian Ocean. The archipelago consists of several islands, including Mauritius, Réunion, and Rodrigues. Mauritius claims responsibility for several Outer Islands, including St. Brandon and Agaléga, and has disputed territorial claims of Tromelin Island and the Chagos Archipelago. The deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the region was one that struck Mauritius in 1892, which killed 1,200 people, left 50,000 people homeless, and destroyed one-third of the capital Port Louis.
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: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)According to the NHC: "Ernesto is moving quickly toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and an even faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next day or two."
But the storm was still set to bring heavy rains and some wind gusts to the islands off the coast of Ireland and the country itself by Saturday night and continuing into Sunday. Heavy rain was expected in some areas and was expected to lighten through the day Sunday to a drizzle, according to the Met Service. The storm could even bring rain to Scotland, Northern Ireland and other parts of the United Kingdom after passing over Ireland.
About an inch of rain was expected to fall in most places as the storm traveled across the U.K. though some areas could see higher rainfall totals, AccuWeather reported. Areas where more rain falls could potentially cause flash flooding.
The strongest gusts of winds were expected to be between 30 and 40 mph
Western Ireland will also see "thicker cloud, stronger winds and persistent rain", according to Sky News weather presenter Jo Edwards.
Ernesto will leave behind a legacy of overcast and muggy conditions when it eventually clears into the North Sea late on Sunday.
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