The effects of tropical cyclones in Europe [nb 1] and their extratropical remnants include strong winds, heavy rainfall, and in rare instances, tornadoes or snowfall. Only three modern cyclones are officially regarded as directly impacting mainland Europe while still fully tropical or subtropical: Hurricane Vince in 2005, which struck southwestern Spain as a tropical depression; Tropical Storm Rolf in 2011, which formed in the western Mediterranean Sea and affected southern France as a weakening tropical storm; and Subtropical Storm Alpha in 2020, which made landfall in northern Portugal at peak intensity. It is believed that a hurricane struck Europe in 1842. Europe is also affected by Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones. These systems host tropical characteristics, [1] but are not monitored by an official warning center. [2]
Atlantic hurricanes in the subtropical latitudes (i.e., north of the Cape Verde region) generally do not form east of the 30th meridian west, and those that do typically continue to the west. Storms can move around the Bermuda high and turn to the northeast and affect Europe. Several extratropical cyclones have struck Europe, and they were called colloquially "hurricanes". Some of these European windstorms had hurricane-force winds of greater than 119 km/h (74 mph). Those storms are not included in this list. [3]
Advanced meteorological observation stations and ship reports allowed Atlantic hurricanes to be tracked for extended durations, including to the European mainland in some cases, beginning in the 1860s. Most storms that affected Europe have done so from August to October, which is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. In a survey of such European tropical cyclones from 1961 to 2010, Dr. Kieran Hickey observed that the storms generally formed west of Africa and recurved to the northeast, or formed off the east coast of the United States and proceeded eastward. Ireland and the United Kingdom experience the most effects, due to their positions far to the west of the rest of Europe. Countries that are as far to the east as Estonia [4] and Russia [5] have experienced tropical cyclone impacts.
Tropical-like systems, referred to as "medicanes," [6] are occasionally observed over the Mediterranean. Several of these storms have developed eye-like features and hurricane-force winds; however, their nature is contrary to that of a tropical cyclone. The majority of these storm originate from deep, cold-core lows which they do not fully disassociate from. Additionally, unlike tropical systems, sea surface temperatures above 26 °C (79 °F) are not required for their development. [7]
The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute predicted that by the year 2100, global warming would increase greatly the threat of hurricane-force winds to western Europe from former tropical cyclones and hybrid storms, the latter similar to Hurricane Sandy in 2012, in a paper published in April 2013. [8] One model predicted an increase from 2 to 13 in the number of cyclones with hurricane-force winds in the waters offshore western Europe. The study suggested that conditions favorable for tropical cyclones would expand 1,100 km (680 mi) to the east. A separate study based out of University of Castilla–La Mancha predicted that hurricanes would develop in the Mediterranean Sea in Septembers by the year 2100, which would threaten countries in southern Europe. [9]
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)According to the NHC: "Ernesto is moving quickly toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and an even faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next day or two."
But the storm was still set to bring heavy rains and some wind gusts to the islands off the coast of Ireland and the country itself by Saturday night and continuing into Sunday. Heavy rain was expected in some areas and was expected to lighten through the day Sunday to a drizzle, according to the Met Service. The storm could even bring rain to Scotland, Northern Ireland and other parts of the United Kingdom after passing over Ireland.
About an inch of rain was expected to fall in most places as the storm traveled across the U.K. though some areas could see higher rainfall totals, AccuWeather reported. Areas where more rain falls could potentially cause flash flooding.
The strongest gusts of winds were expected to be between 30 and 40 mph
Western Ireland will also see "thicker cloud, stronger winds and persistent rain", according to Sky News weather presenter Jo Edwards.
Ernesto will leave behind a legacy of overcast and muggy conditions when it eventually clears into the North Sea late on Sunday.