The effects of tropical cyclones in Europe and their extratropical remnants include strong winds, heavy rainfall, and in rare instances, tornadoes or snowfall. Only two modern cyclones are officially regarded as directly impacting mainland Europe while still fully tropical or subtropical: Hurricane Vince in 2005, which struck southwestern Spain as a tropical depression; and Subtropical Storm Alpha in 2020, which made landfall in northern Portugal at peak intensity. It is possible that Hurricane Debbie in 1961, may have been tropical still, when it made landfall in northwestern Ireland, but this is disputed. [nb 1] It is believed that a hurricane struck Europe in 1842.
Atlantic hurricanes in the subtropical latitudes (i.e., north of the Cape Verde region) generally do not form east of the 30th meridian west, and those that do typically continue to the west. Storms can move around the Bermuda high and turn to the northeast and affect Europe. Several extratropical cyclones have struck Europe, and they were called colloquially "hurricanes". Some of these European windstorms had hurricane-force winds of greater than 119 km/h (74 mph). Those storms are not included in this list. [1]
Advanced meteorological observation stations and ship reports allowed Atlantic hurricanes to be tracked for extended durations, including to the European mainland in some cases, beginning in the 1860s. Most storms that affected Europe have done so from August to October, which is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. In a survey of such European tropical cyclones from 1961 to 2010, Dr. Kieran Hickey observed that the storms generally formed west of Africa and recurved to the northeast, or formed off the east coast of the United States and proceeded eastward. Ireland and the United Kingdom experience the most effects, due to their positions far to the west of the rest of Europe. Countries that are as far to the east as Estonia [2] and Russia [3] have experienced tropical cyclone impacts.
Tropical-like systems, referred to as "medicanes," [4] are occasionally observed over the Mediterranean. Several of these storms have developed eye-like features and hurricane-force winds; however, their nature is contrary to that of a tropical cyclone. The majority of these storm originate from deep, cold-core lows which they do not fully disassociate from. Additionally, unlike tropical systems, sea surface temperatures above 26 °C (79 °F) are not required for their development. [5]
The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute predicted that by the year 2100, global warming would increase greatly the threat of hurricane-force winds to western Europe from former tropical cyclones and hybrid storms, the latter similar to Hurricane Sandy in 2012, in a paper published in April 2013. [6] One model predicted an increase from 2 to 13 in the number of cyclones with hurricane-force winds in the waters offshore western Europe. The study suggested that conditions favorable for tropical cyclones would expand 1,100 km (680 mi) to the east. A separate study based out of University of Castilla–La Mancha predicted that hurricanes would develop in the Mediterranean Sea in Septembers by the year 2100, which would threaten countries in southern Europe. [7]
The 2001 Atlantic hurricane season was a fairly active Atlantic hurricane season that produced 17 tropical cyclones, 15 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. The season officially lasted from June 1, 2001, to November 30, 2001, dates which by convention limit the period of each year when tropical cyclones tend to form in the Atlantic Ocean basin. The season began with Tropical Storm Allison on June 4, and ended with Hurricane Olga, which dissipated on December 6.
The 1958 Atlantic hurricane season included every tropical cyclone either affecting or threatening land. There were ten named storms as well as one pre-season tropical storm. Seven of the storms became hurricanes, including five that were major hurricanes, or the equivalent of a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The strongest storm was Hurricane Helene, which became a strong Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph (240 km/h) winds and a barometric pressure of 930 millibars (27 inHg) while just offshore the southeastern United States.
The 1960 Atlantic hurricane season was the least active season since 1952. The season officially began on June 15, and lasted until November 15. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The first system, an unnamed storm, developed in the Bay of Campeche on June 22. It brought severe local flooding to southeastern Texas and was considered the worst disaster in some towns since a Hurricane in 1945. The unnamed storm moved across the United States for almost a week before dissipating on June 29. In July, Hurricane Abby resulted in minor damage in the Leeward Islands, before impacting a few Central American counties — the remnants of the storm would go on to form Hurricane Celeste in the East Pacific. Later that month, Tropical Storm Brenda caused flooding across much of the East Coast of the United States. The next storm, Hurricane Cleo, caused no known impact, despite its close proximity to land.
The 1961 Atlantic hurricane season was a very active Atlantic hurricane season, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) total of 189, the highest since 1950. The season, however, was an average one in terms of named storms. The season featured eight hurricanes and a well above average number of five major hurricanes. It was previously thought that the season had a record-tying seven major hurricanes, before the Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project downgraded two storms in 2019. Two Category 5 hurricanes were seen in 1961, making it one of only eight Atlantic hurricane seasons to feature multiple Category 5 hurricanes in one season. The season started on June 15, and ended on November 15. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The first system, an operationally unclassified tropical depression, formed offshore east Central Florida on June 10, but dissipated a few days later. Next, Hurricane Anna developed in the eastern Caribbean Sea near the Windward Islands on July 20. It brought minor damage to the islands in, as well as wind and flood impacts to Central America after striking Belize as a hurricane. Anna caused one death and about $300,000 (1961 USD) in damage. Activity went dormant for nearly a month and a half, until Hurricane Betsy developed on September 2. Betsy peaked as a Category 4 hurricane, but remained at sea and caused no impact.
The 1962 Atlantic hurricane season was the least active since 1946, with only seven named storms. The season officially began on June 15, while the first tropical storm developed on June 30. No further activity occurred until late August, when Hurricane Alma brushed the Outer Banks before becoming extratropical southeast of New England, destroying hundreds of boats and producing beneficial rainfall. Around that time, Tropical Storm Becky developed unusually far east in the Atlantic Ocean, becoming the easternmost storm on record to recurve to the northeast. Celia followed in the September, forming east of the Lesser Antilles and executing a loop near Bermuda before dissipating. Hurricane Daisy was the costliest of the season, leaving about $1.1 million in damage in New England (1962 USD). The storm dropped the highest rainfall total on record in Maine, and its precipitation caused 22 traffic fatalities. Ella, the strongest storm of the season, remained offshore of the eastern United States but caused two deaths. The final system, an unnamed hurricane, formed on November 28 and meandered eratically off the Southeastern United States before becoming extratropical on December 4.
The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was the least active in the basin since 1997, with nine named storms as well as an additional unnamed tropical storm identified by the National Hurricane Center. 2006 was the first season since 2001 in which no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, and was the first since 1994 in which no tropical cyclones formed during October. Following the intense activity of 2003, 2004, and 2005, forecasters predicted that the 2006 season would be only slightly less active. Instead, it turned out to be a below average season, as activity was slowed by a rapidly forming moderate El Niño event, the presence of the Saharan Air Layer over the tropical Atlantic, and the steady presence of a robust secondary high-pressure area to the Azores High centered on Bermuda. There were no tropical cyclones after October 2.
Hurricane Charley was the second hurricane to threaten the East Coast of the United States within a year's timeframe, after Hurricane Gloria of 1985. The third tropical storm and second hurricane of the season, Charley formed as a subtropical low on August 13 along the Florida panhandle. After moving off the coast of South Carolina, the system transitioned into a tropical cyclone and intensified into a tropical storm on August 15. Charley later attained hurricane status before moving across eastern North Carolina. It gradually weakened over the north Atlantic Ocean before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on August 20. Charley's remnants remained identifiable for over a week, until after crossing Ireland and Great Britain they dissipated on August 30.
Subtropical Storm Nicole was the first subtropical storm to receive a name using the standard hurricane name list that did not become a tropical cyclone. The fifteenth tropical or subtropical cyclone and fourteenth named storm of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, Nicole developed on October 10 near Bermuda from a broad surface low that developed as a result of the interaction between an upper level trough and a decaying cold front. The storm turned to the northeast, passing close to Bermuda as it intensified to reach peak winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) on October 11. Deep convection developed near the center of the system as it attempted to become a fully tropical cyclone. However, it failed to do so and was absorbed by an extratropical cyclone late on October 11.
Hurricane Gordon was the first tropical cyclone since 1992 to affect the Azores while retaining tropical characteristics. The eighth tropical storm, third hurricane, and first major hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, Gordon formed on September 10 in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. It gradually matured into a hurricane as it tracked northward, reaching its peak intensity with winds of 195 km/h (121 mph) early on September 14 while located about 925 km (575 mi) southeast of Bermuda. After becoming nearly stationary, Gordon weakened to minimal hurricane status, although it re-intensified after accelerating to the east. It weakened again after moving over cooler waters, and passed through the Azores on September 20. Shortly thereafter, it became an extratropical cyclone and subsequently affected Spain, Ireland, and the United Kingdom.
Tropical Storm Carrie was a strong tropical storm that affected the East Coast of the United States in early September 1972. The third tropical cyclone of the 1972 Atlantic hurricane season, Carrie formed on August 29 from a complex sequence of meteorological events starting with the emergence of a tropical wave into the Atlantic in the middle of August.
The 1924 Atlantic hurricane season featured the first officially recorded Category 5 hurricane, a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds exceeding 155 mph (249 km/h) on the modern-day Saffir–Simpson scale. The first system, Tropical Storm One, was first detected in the northwestern Caribbean Sea on June 18. The final system, an unnumbered tropical depression, dissipated on November 24. These dates fall within the period with the most tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. Of the 13 tropical cyclones of the season, six existed simultaneously. The season was average with 11 tropical storms, five of which strengthened into hurricanes. Further, two of those five intensified into major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
Tropical Storm Grace holds the record for being the farthest northeast forming tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. The seventh named storm of the slightly below average 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, Grace formed from an extratropical cyclone over the Azores on 4 October. It strengthened to attain peak sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) and developed an eye-like feature, although cold sea surface temperatures inhibited the development of thunderstorm activity near the center. The storm lost its tropical characteristics on 6 October, and the storm's remnants merged with a separate system near the British Isles on 7 October.
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: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)According to the NHC: "Ernesto is moving quickly toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and an even faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next day or two."
But the storm was still set to bring heavy rains and some wind gusts to the islands off the coast of Ireland and the country itself by Saturday night and continuing into Sunday. Heavy rain was expected in some areas and was expected to lighten through the day Sunday to a drizzle, according to the Met Service. The storm could even bring rain to Scotland, Northern Ireland and other parts of the United Kingdom after passing over Ireland.
About an inch of rain was expected to fall in most places as the storm traveled across the U.K. though some areas could see higher rainfall totals, AccuWeather reported. Areas where more rain falls could potentially cause flash flooding.
The strongest gusts of winds were expected to be between 30 and 40 mph
Western Ireland will also see "thicker cloud, stronger winds and persistent rain", according to Sky News weather presenter Jo Edwards.
Ernesto will leave behind a legacy of overcast and muggy conditions when it eventually clears into the North Sea late on Sunday.