United States House of Representatives elections, 2018

Last updated

United States House of Representatives elections, 2018

  2016 November 6, 2018 2020  

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives [lower-alpha 1]
218 seats needed for a majority
 Majority partyMinority party
 
Leader Nancy Pelosi Paul Ryan
(retiring)
Party Democratic Republican
Leader sinceJanuary 3, 2003October 29, 2015
Leader's seat California 12th Wisconsin 1st
Last election194241
Seats before193235
Seats won231 (potentially 237) [lower-alpha 2] 198 (potentially 204) [lower-alpha 2]
Seat changeIncrease 38 (potentially 44)Decrease 37 (potentially 31)
Popular vote58,527,681 [1] 50,070,286 [2]
Percentage53.0%45.3%

Results (as of November 14, 2018):
     Democratic hold     Democratic gain
     Republican hold     Republican gain
     Uncalled races


    Speaker before election

    Paul Ryan
    Republican

    Elected Speaker

    TBD

    The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 6, 2018, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks before. Elections were held to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five inhabited U.S. territories [lower-alpha 3] were also elected. The election for a non-voting delegate from the Northern Mariana Islands was postponed until Tuesday, November 13, 2018, due to the impact of Typhoon Yutu. [3]

    Contents

    The winners of this election will serve in the 116th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2010 United States Census. Republicans have held a House majority since January 2011 (see 2010 results), although they lost five seats in the 2016 elections and another in special elections leading up to the 2018 election.

    The midterm elections took place nearly halfway through Republican President Donald Trump's first term. The 2018 Senate elections, 2018 gubernatorial elections, and many state and local elections were also held on this date. Election night results projected that the Democrats gained at least 30 seats, giving them the majority of the House. According to the New York Times, six races are still too close to call. [4] The Democrats picked up at least 38 seats, their best performance since the 1974 elections. [5] [6]

    Results summary

    Source: "Election Statistics – Office of the Clerk". Note: does not include blank and over/under votes

    231198
    DemocraticRepublican
    PartiesSeatsPopular vote
    2016 2018+/-StrengthVote%Change
      Republican Party TBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBD
      Democratic Party TBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBD
      Libertarian Party TBDTBDTBD
      Independent TBDTBDTBD
      Green Party TBDTBDTBD
      Constitution Party TBDTBD
      Legal Marijuana Now Party TBDTBD
      Reform Party TBDTBD
      Conservative Party TBDTBD
      Independence Party TBDTBDTBD
      Independent American Party TBDTBD
      Progressive Party TBDTBD
      Liberty Union Party TBDTBD
      American Party TBDTBD
      Working Class Party TBDTBD
      People's Choice Party TBDTBD
      Veterans Party TBDTBD
      Economic Growth Party TBDTBD
      Socialist Party TBDTBD
      Wake Up America Party TBDTBD
      Natural Law Party TBDTBD
      Women of Power Party TBDTBD
      Make Government Work Party TBDTBD
      Harris Bhatti Party TBDTBD
      American Independent Party TBDTBD
      NSA Did 911 Party TBDTBD
      Transparent Government Party TBDTBD
      New Beginning's Party TBDTBD
      Representing the 99% Party TBDTBD
      We the People Party TBDTBD
      For Political Revolution Party TBDTBD
     OthersTBDTBDTBD
    TotalsTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBD
    Popular vote
    Democratic
    53.0%
    Republican
    45.3%
    Other
    1.30%
    House seats
    Democratic
    53.85%
    Republican
    46.15%

    Incumbents defeated

    In primary elections

    Democrats

    Three Democrats (including one non-voting delegate) lost renomination:

    1. Guam at-large: Delegate Madeleine Bordallo lost renomination to Michael San Nicolas (D), who then won the general election. [7] [8]
    2. Massachusetts 7: Mike Capuano lost renomination to Ayanna Pressley (D), who then won the general election.
    3. New York 14: Joe Crowley lost renomination to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D), who then won the general election.

    Republicans

    Two Republicans lost renomination:

    1. North Carolina 9: Robert Pittenger lost renomination to Mark Harris (R), who then won the general election.
    2. South Carolina 1: Mark Sanford lost renomination to Katie Arrington (R), who then lost the general election.

    In the general election

    Republicans

    27 Republicans lost reelection to Democrats:

    Seat lost to a Democratic incumbent
    1. Pennsylvania 17: Keith Rothfus lost a redistricting race to Conor Lamb.
    Seat lost to a Democratic challenger
    1. California 10: Jeff Denham lost to Josh Harder.
    2. California 25: Steve Knight lost to Katie Hill.
    3. California 45: Mimi Walters lost to Katie Porter.
    4. California 48: Dana Rohrabacher lost to Harley Rouda.
    5. Colorado 6: Mike Coffman lost to Jason Crow.
    6. Florida 26: Carlos Curbelo lost to Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
    7. Georgia 6: Karen Handel lost to Lucy McBath.
    8. Illinois 6: Peter Roskam lost to Sean Casten.
    9. Illinois 14: Randy Hultgren lost to Lauren Underwood.
    10. Iowa 1: Rod Blum lost to Abby Finkenauer.
    11. Iowa 3: David Young lost to Cindy Axne.
    12. Kansas 3: Kevin Yoder lost to Sharice Davids.
    13. Maine 2: Bruce Poliquin lost to Jared Golden.
    14. Michigan 8: Mike Bishop lost to Elissa Slotkin.
    15. Minnesota 2: Jason Lewis lost to Angie Craig.
    16. Minnesota 3: Erik Paulsen lost to Dean Phillips.
    17. New Jersey 3: Tom MacArthur lost to Andy Kim.
    18. New Jersey 7: Leonard Lance lost to Tom Malinowski.
    19. New York 11: Dan Donovan lost to Max Rose.
    20. New York 19: John Faso lost to Antonio Delgado.
    21. Oklahoma 5: Steve Russell lost to Kendra Horn.
    22. Texas 7: John Culberson lost to Lizzie Fletcher.
    23. Texas 32: Pete Sessions lost to Colin Allred.
    24. Virginia 2: Scott Taylor lost to Elaine Luria.
    25. Virginia 7: Dave Brat lost to Abigail Spanberger.
    26. Virginia 10: Barbara Comstock lost to Jennifer Wexton.

    Open seats that changed parties

    Map showing retiring incumbents

    Overall, fifty-four incumbents (18 Democrats and 36 Republicans) did not seek re-election, either to retire or to seek other positions.

    Democratic seats

    Three Democrats were replaced by Republicans:

    1. Minnesota 1: Tim Walz retired to run for Governor of Minnesota. [9] Seat won by Jim Hagedorn.
    2. Minnesota 8: Rick Nolan retired to run for Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota. [10] [11] Seat won by Pete Stauber.
    3. Pennsylvania 14: Conor Lamb instead ran in the 17th district. Seat won by Guy Reschenthaler.

    Republican seats

    Eight open seats were lost:

    1. Arizona 2: Martha McSally retired to run for U.S. Senator. [9] Seat won by Ann Kirkpatrick.
    2. California 49: Darrell Issa retired. [9] Seat won by Mike Levin.
    3. Florida 27: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen retired. [9] Seat won by Donna Shalala.
    4. Michigan 11: Dave Trott retired. [9] Seat won by Haley Stevens.
    5. New Jersey 2: Frank LoBiondo retired "due to the increased political polarization of Congress." [12] . Seat won by Jeff Van Drew.
    6. New Jersey 11: Rodney Frelinghuysen retired. [9] . Seat won by Mikie Sherrill.
    7. New Mexico 2: Steve Pearce retired to run for Governor of New Mexico. [9] Seat won by Xochitl Torres Small.
    8. Washington 8: Dave Reichert retired. [9] Seat won by Kim Schrier.

    Four open seats were lost after redistricting:

    1. Pennsylvania 4: Scott Perry ran instead in the 10th District. Seat won by Madeleine Dean.
    2. Pennsylvania 5: Pat Meehan resigned. Redistricted from the 7th district. Seat won by Mary Gay Scanlon.
    3. Pennsylvania 6: Ryan Costello retired due to "family, the political environment and redistricting". [13] Seat won by Chrissy Houlahan.
    4. Pennsylvania 7: Charlie Dent resigned. Redistricted from the 15th district. Seat won by Susan Wild.

    Open seats that parties held

    Democratic seats

    17 open seats were held:

    1. Arizona 9: Kyrsten Sinema retired to run for U.S. Senator. [9] Seat won by Greg Stanton.
    2. Colorado 2: Jared Polis retired to run for Governor of Colorado. [9] Seat won by Joe Neguse.
    3. Connecticut 5: Elizabeth Esty retiring due to misconduct surrounding sexual harassment allegations of an employee. [9] [14] Seat won by Jahana Hayes.
    4. Hawaii 1: Colleen Hanabusa retired to run for Governor of Hawaii. [9] Seat won by Ed Case.
    5. Illinois 4: Luis Gutiérrez retired. [9] Seat won by Chuy García.
    6. Maryland 6: John Delaney retired to run for President of the United States. [9] Seat won by David Trone.
    7. Massachusetts 3: Niki Tsongas retired. [9] Seat won by Lori Trahan.
    8. Michigan 9: Sandy Levin retired. [9] Seat won by Andy Levin.
    9. Michigan 13: John Conyers resigned. Seat won by Rashida Tlaib.
    10. Minnesota 5: Keith Ellison retired to run for Minnesota Attorney General. [15] Seat won by Ilhan Omar.
    11. Nevada 3: Jacky Rosen retired to run for U.S. Senator. [9] Seat won by Susie Lee.
    12. Nevada 4: Rubén Kihuen retiring due to sexual harassment allegations. [16] Seat won by Steven Horsford.
    13. New Hampshire 1: Carol Shea-Porter retired. [9] Seat won by Chris Pappas.
    14. New Mexico 1: Michelle Lujan Grisham retired to run for Governor of New Mexico. [9] Seat won by Deb Haaland.
    15. New York 25: Louise Slaughter died. Seat won by Joe Morelle.
    16. Texas 16: Beto O'Rourke retired to run for U.S. Senator. [9] . Seat won by Veronica Escobar.
    17. Texas 29: Gene Green retired. [9] Seat won by Sylvia Garcia.

    Republican seats

    27 open seats were held:

    1. Florida 6: Ron DeSantis retired then resigned to run for Governor of Florida. [17] Resigned on September 10, 2018, to concentrate on the race; his replacement will be seated in the new Congress. Seat won by Michael Waltz.
    2. Florida 15: Dennis Ross retired. [18] Seat won by Ross Spano.
    3. Florida 17: Tom Rooney retired. [19] [20] Seat won by Greg Steube.
    4. Idaho 1: Raúl Labrador to run for Governor of Idaho. [9] Seat won by Russ Fulcher.
    5. Indiana 4: Todd Rokita retired to run for U.S. Senator. [9] Seat won by Jim Baird.
    6. Indiana 6: Luke Messer retired to run for U.S. Senator. [9] Seat won by Greg Pence.
    7. Kansas 2: Lynn Jenkins retired. [9] Seat won by Steve Watkins.
    8. Mississippi 3: Gregg Harper retired. [9] Seat won by Michael Guest.
    9. North Dakota at-large: Kevin Cramer retired to run for U.S. Senator. [21] Seat won by Kelly Armstrong.
    10. Ohio 16: Jim Renacci retired to run for U.S. Senator. [9] Seat won by Anthony Gonzalez.
    11. Oklahoma 1: Jim Bridenstine announced his retirement on November 10, 2017. He resigned on April 23, 2018, after being confirmed as Administrator of NASA; his replacement will be seated in the new Congress.. Seat won by Kevin Hern.
    12. South Carolina 4: Trey Gowdy retired to "return to the justice system." [22] Seat won by William Timmons.
    13. South Dakota at-large: Kristi Noem retired to run for Governor of South Dakota. [9] Seat won by Dusty Johnson.
    14. Tennessee 2: Jimmy Duncan retired. [9] Seat won by Tim Burchett.
    15. Tennessee 6: Diane Black retired to run for Governor of Tennessee. [9] Seat won by John Rose.
    16. Tennessee 7: Marsha Blackburn retired to run for U.S. Senator. [23] Seat won by Mark Green.
    17. Texas 2: Ted Poe retired. [9] Seat won by Dan Crenshaw.
    18. Texas 3: Sam Johnson retired. [9] Seat won by Van Taylor.
    19. Texas 5: Jeb Hensarling retired. [9] Seat won by Lance Gooden.
    20. Texas 6: Joe Barton retired. [9] Seat won by Ron Wright.
    21. Texas 21: Lamar Smith retired. [9] Seat won by Chip Roy.
    22. Virginia 5: Tom Garrett retired due to alcoholism. [24] Seat won by Denver Riggleman.
    23. Virginia 6: Bob Goodlatte retired. [9] Seat won by Ben Cline.
    24. West Virginia 3: Evan Jenkins retired to run for Senate and resigned to become State Supreme Court Justice. Seat won by Carol Miller.
    25. Wisconsin 1: Paul Ryan retired. [9] Seat won by Bryan Steil.

    Two open seats were held after redistricting:

    1. Pennsylvania 9: Lou Barletta retired to run for U.S. Senator. [9] Redistricted from the 11th district. Seat won by Dan Meuser.
    2. Pennsylvania 13: Bill Shuster retired. [9] Redistricted from the 9th district. Seat won by John Joyce.

    Non-retirements

    Some members announced their retirements, but either rejoined the race or resigned early and were replaced in a special election. Sorted by district name.

    1. Colorado 7. Ed Perlmutter (D) announced his retirement April 9, 2017, to run for Governor of Colorado. He returned to the U.S. House of Representatives race on August 21, 2017.
    2. New York 27. Chris Collins (R) was renominated but then withdrew after being indicted for insider trading. [25] On September 17, 2018, he rejoined the race. [26]
    3. Pennsylvania 7. Pat Meehan (R) announced his retirement on January 25, 2018. [27] He resigned on April 27, 2018; his seat will be filled by a special election.
    4. Pennsylvania 15. Charlie Dent (R) announced his retirement on September 7, 2017. [28] He resigned on May 12, 2018; [29] [30] [31] his seat will be filled by a special election.
    5. Texas 27. Blake Farenthold (R) announced his retirement on December 14, 2017. He resigned on April 6, 2018; his seat was filled by a special election.
    6. Utah 3. Jason Chaffetz (R) announced his retirement on April 19, 2017. He resigned on June 30, 2017; his seat was filled by special election and the winner is running for reelection in November 2018.
    7. West Virginia 3. Evan Jenkins (R) announced his retirement on May 8, 2017, to run for U.S. Senator. [9] He lost the nomination and then resigned on September 30, 2018, when appointed to the Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia.

    Seats to be called

    Six seats have not yet been called [4] :

    1. California 39: Ed Royce retired. [9] Contested between Gil Cisneros (D) and Young Kim (R).
    2. Georgia 7: Contested between Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) and incumbent Rob Woodall (R).
    3. New York 22: Contested between Anthony Brindisi (D) and incumbent Claudia Tenney (R).
    4. New York 27: Contested between incumbent Chris Collins (R) and Nate McMurray (D).
    5. Texas 23: Contested between incumbent Will Hurd (R) and Gina Ortiz Jones (D).
    6. Utah 4: Contested between incumbent Mia Love (R) and Ben McAdams (D).

    Election ratings

    Latest published ratings for competitive seats

    Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

    Most election ratings use:

    District CPVI [32] [33] IncumbentPrevious
    result [34]
    Cook
    November 5, 2018 [35]
    I.E.
    November 5, 2018 [36]
    Sab.
    November 5, 2018 [37]
    RCP
    November 5, 2018 [38]
    Daily Kos
    November 5, 2018 [39]
    538
    November 6, 2018 [lower-alpha 4] [40]
    Winner [41]
    Alaska at-large R+9 Don Young (R)50.3% RLean RLikely RLean RTossupLean RLean R Don Young (R)
    Arizona 1 R+2 Tom O'Halleran (D)50.7% DLean DLean DLikely DTossupLikely DLikely D Tom O'Halleran (D)
    Arizona 2 R+1 Martha McSally (R) (Retiring)57.0% RLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Safe D (flip) Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
    Arizona 6 R+9 David Schweikert (R)62.1% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely R David Schweikert (R)
    Arizona 8 R+13 Debbie Lesko (R)52.4% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely R Debbie Lesko (R)
    Arizona 9 D+4 Kyrsten Sinema (D) (Retiring)60.9% DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DSafe D Greg Stanton (D)
    Arkansas 2 R+7 French Hill (R)58.4% RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely R French Hill (R)
    California 1 R+11 Doug LaMalfa (R)59.1% RLikely RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Doug LaMalfa (R)
    California 4 R+10 Tom McClintock (R)62.7% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely R Tom McClintock (R)
    California 7 D+3 Ami Bera (D)51.2% DLikely DSafe DLikely DLean DSafe DSafe D Ami Bera (D)
    California 10 EVEN Jeff Denham (R)51.7% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupLikely D (flip) Josh Harder (D)
    California 16 D+9 Jim Costa (D)58.0% DLikely DSafe DLikely DSafe DSafe DSafe D Jim Costa (D)
    California 21 D+5 David Valadao (R)56.7% RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely RTBD
    California 22 R+8 Devin Nunes (R)67.6% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RLikely RSafe R Devin Nunes (R)
    California 24 D+7 Salud Carbajal (D)53.4% DSafe DSafe DLikely DLikely DSafe DSafe D Salud Carbajal (D)
    California 25 EVEN Steve Knight (R)53.1% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupLean D (flip) Katie Hill (D)
    California 39 EVEN Ed Royce (R) (Retiring)57.2% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupTossupTBD
    California 45 R+3 Mimi Walters (R)58.6% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupLean D (flip) Katie Porter (D)
    California 48 R+4 Dana Rohrabacher (R)58.3% RTossupTilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupTossupTossup Harley Rouda (D)
    California 49 R+1 Darrell Issa (R) (Retiring)50.3% RLikely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Safe D (flip) Mike Levin (D)
    California 50 R+11 Duncan D. Hunter (R)63.5% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely R Duncan D. Hunter (R)
    Colorado 3 R+6 Scott Tipton (R)54.6% RLikely RSafe RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely R Scott Tipton (R)
    Colorado 6 D+2 Mike Coffman (R)50.9% RLean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip) Jason Crow (D)
    Florida 6 R+7Vacant58.6% RLean RLean RLean RLikely RLean RLean R Michael Waltz (R)
    Florida 7 EVEN Stephanie Murphy (D)51.5% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DLikely D Stephanie Murphy (D)
    Florida 13 D+2 Charlie Crist (D)51.9% DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DSafe D Charlie Crist (D)
    Florida 15 R+6 Dennis A. Ross (R) (Retiring)57.5% RTossupTilt RLean RTossupLean RTossup Ross Spano (R)
    Florida 16 R+7 Vern Buchanan (R)59.8% RLean RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely R Vern Buchanan (R)
    Florida 18 R+5 Brian Mast (R)53.6% RLean RLikely RLean RLean RLean RLikely R Brian Mast (R)
    Florida 25 R+4 Mario Diaz-Balart (R)62.4% RLean RSafe RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean R Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
    Florida 26 D+6 Carlos Curbelo (R)53.0% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupTossup Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)
    Florida 27 D+5 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) (Retiring)54.9% RLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLean D (flip)Likely D (flip) Donna Shalala (D)
    Georgia 6 R+8 Karen Handel (R)51.8% RTossupLean RLean RTossupLean RTossup Lucy McBath (D)
    Georgia 7 R+9 Rob Woodall (R)60.4% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely RTBD
    Illinois 6 R+2 Peter Roskam (R)59.2% RLean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupTossupTossup Sean Casten (D)
    Illinois 12 R+5 Mike Bost (R)54.3% RLean RTilt RLean RLean RLean RLean R Mike Bost (R)
    Illinois 13 R+3 Rodney Davis (R)59.7% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean R Rodney Davis (R)
    Illinois 14 R+5 Randy Hultgren (R)59.3% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupLean D (flip) Lauren Underwood (D)
    Indiana 2 R+11 Jackie Walorski (R)59.3% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RSafe R Jackie Walorski (R)
    Indiana 9 R+13 Trey Hollingsworth (R)54.1% RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely R Trey Hollingsworth (R)
    Iowa 1 D+1 Rod Blum (R)53.7% RLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Safe D (flip) Abby Finkenauer (D)
    Iowa 2 D+1 Dave Loebsack (D)53.7% DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DSafe D Dave Loebsack (D)
    Iowa 3 R+1 David Young (R)53.5% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupLean D (flip) Cindy Axne (D)
    Iowa 4 R+11 Steve King (R)61.2% RLean RLikely RLean RLean RLikely RLikely R Steve King (R)
    Kansas 2 R+10 Lynn Jenkins (R) (Retiring)60.9% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupLean D (flip) Steve Watkins (R)
    Kansas 3 R+4 Kevin Yoder (R)51.3% RLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip) Sharice Davids (D)
    Kentucky 6 R+9 Andy Barr (R)61.1% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupTossup Andy Barr (R)
    Maine 2 R+2 Bruce Poliquin (R)54.8% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupLean D (flip) Jared Golden (D)
    Michigan 1 R+9 Jack Bergman (R)54.9% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely R Jack Bergman (R)
    Michigan 2 R+9 Bill Huizenga (R)62.6% RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RSafe RLikely R Bill Huizenga (R)
    Michigan 3 R+6 Justin Amash (R)59.5% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RSafe RSafe R Justin Amash (R)
    Michigan 6 R+4 Fred Upton (R)58.7% RLean RLikely RLean RLean RLean RLikely R Fred Upton (R)
    Michigan 7 R+7 Tim Walberg (R)55.1% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RTossup Tim Walberg (R)
    Michigan 8 R+4 Mike Bishop (R)56.0% RTossupTilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupTossupLean D (flip) Elissa Slotkin (D)
    Michigan 11 R+4 Dave Trott (R) (Retiring)52.9% RLean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLean D (flip)Likely D (flip) Haley Stevens (D)
    Minnesota 1 R+5 Tim Walz (D) (Retiring)50.3% DTossupTossupLean DTossupTossupTossup Jim Hagedorn (R)
    Minnesota 2 R+2 Jason Lewis (R)47.0% RLean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLikely D (flip) Angie Craig (D)
    Minnesota 3 D+1 Erik Paulsen (R)56.7% RLean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLikely D (flip) Dean Phillips (D)
    Minnesota 7 R+12 Collin Peterson (D)52.5% DLikely DSafe DLikely DTossupLikely DLikely D Collin Peterson (D)
    Minnesota 8 R+4 Rick Nolan (D) (Retiring)50.2% DLean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Likely R (flip) Pete Stauber (R)
    Missouri 2 R+8 Ann Wagner (R)58.5% RLean RSafe RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely R Ann Wagner (R)
    Montana at-large R+11 Greg Gianforte (R)49.9% RLean RLikely RLean RTossupLean RLikely R Greg Gianforte (R)
    Nebraska 2 R+4 Don Bacon (R)48.9% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely RTossup Don Bacon (R)
    Nevada 3 R+2 Jacky Rosen (D) (Retiring)47.2% DLean DTilt DLean DTossupLean DLikely D Susie Lee (D)
    Nevada 4 D+3 Ruben Kihuen (D) (Retiring)48.5% DLean DLean DLikely DTossupLean DLikely D Steven Horsford (D)
    New Hampshire 1 R+2 Carol Shea-Porter (D) (Retiring)44.3% DLikely DLean DLikely DTossupLean DLikely D Chris Pappas (D)
    New Hampshire 2 D+2 Ann McLane Kuster (D)49.8% DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DSafe D Ann McLane Kuster (D)
    New Jersey 2 R+1 Frank LoBiondo (R) (Retiring)59.2% RLikely D (flip)Likely D (flip)Safe D (flip)Likely D (flip)Safe D (flip)Safe D (flip) Jeff Van Drew (D)
    New Jersey 3 R+2 Tom MacArthur (R)59.3% RTossupTilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupTossupTossup Andy Kim (D)
    New Jersey 4 R+8 Chris Smith (R)63.7% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Chris Smith (R)
    New Jersey 5 R+3 Josh Gottheimer (D)51.1% DLikely DSafe DLikely DLikely DLikely DSafe D Josh Gottheimer (D)
    New Jersey 7 R+3 Leonard Lance (R)54.1% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLikely D (flip) Tom Malinowski (D)
    New Jersey 11 R+3 Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) (Retiring)58.0% RLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip) Mikie Sherrill (D)
    New Mexico 1 D+7 Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) (Retiring)65.1% DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DSafe D Deb Haaland (D)
    New Mexico 2 R+6 Steve Pearce (R) (Retiring)62.7% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupTossup Xochitl Torres Small (D)
    New York 1 R+5 Lee Zeldin (R)58.2% RLikely RSafe RLean RLean RLikely RLikely R Lee Zeldin (R)
    New York 2 R+3 Peter King (R)57.2% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RSafe RLean R Peter King (R)
    New York 3 D+1 Thomas Suozzi (D)52.4% DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DSafe D Thomas Suozzi (D)
    New York 11 R+3 Dan Donovan (R)61.5% RLikely RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely R Max Rose (D)
    New York 18 R+1 Sean Patrick Maloney (D)55.6% DSafe DSafe DLikely DLikely DSafe DSafe D Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
    New York 19 R+2 John Faso (R)54.0% RTossupTilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupTossupLean D (flip) Antonio Delgado (D)
    New York 21 R+4 Elise Stefanik (R)61.6% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely R Elise Stefanik (R)
    New York 22 R+6 Claudia Tenney (R)46.5% RTossupTilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupTossupTossupTBD
    New York 23 R+6 Tom Reed (R)57.6% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely R Tom Reed (R)
    New York 24 D+3 John Katko (R)60.5% RLean RLean RLean RLikely RLean RLikely R John Katko (R)
    New York 27 R+11 Chris Collins (R)67.2% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely RTBD
    North Carolina 2 R+7 George Holding (R)56.7% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely R George Holding (R)
    North Carolina 6 R+9 Mark Walker (R)59.2% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Mark Walker (R)
    North Carolina 7 R+9 David Rouzer (R)60.9% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R David Rouzer (R)
    North Carolina 8 R+8 Richard Hudson (R)58.8% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely R Richard Hudson (R)
    North Carolina 9 R+8 Robert Pittenger (R) (Lost renomination)58.2% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupTossup Mark Harris (R)
    North Carolina 13 R+6 Ted Budd (R)56.1% RTossupTilt RLean RLean RLean RLean R Ted Budd (R)
    Ohio 1 R+5 Steve Chabot (R)59.2% RLean RTilt RLean RLean RLean RLikely R Steve Chabot (R)
    Ohio 7 R+12 Bob Gibbs (R)64.0% RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe R Bob Gibbs (R)
    Ohio 10 R+4 Mike Turner (R)64.1% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely R Mike Turner (R)
    Ohio 12 R+7 Troy Balderson (R)50.1% RTossupTossupLean RLean RLean RLean R Troy Balderson (R)
    Ohio 14 R+5 David Joyce (R)62.6% RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely R David Joyce (R)
    Ohio 15 R+7 Steve Stivers (R)66.2% RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RSafe RSafe R Steve Stivers (R)
    Ohio 16 R+8 Jim Renacci (R) (Retiring)65.3% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Anthony Gonzalez (R)
    Oklahoma 5 R+10 Steve Russell (R)57.1% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely R Kendra Horn (D)
    Oregon 5 EVEN Kurt Schrader (D)53.6% DSafe DSafe DSafe DLean DSafe DLikely D Kurt Schrader (D)
    Pennsylvania 1 R+1 Brian Fitzpatrick (R)(New district)TossupTossupLean RTossupTossupTossup Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
    Pennsylvania 5 D+13Vacant(New district)Likely D (flip)Likely D (flip)Safe D (flip)Likely D (flip)Safe D (flip)Safe D (flip) Mary Gay Scanlon (D)
    Pennsylvania 6 D+2 Ryan Costello (R) (Retiring)(New district)Likely D (flip)Likely D (flip)Safe D (flip)Likely D (flip)Safe D (flip)Safe D (flip) Chrissy Houlahan (D)
    Pennsylvania 7 D+1Vacant(New district)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Safe D (flip) Susan Wild (D)
    Pennsylvania 8 R+1 Matt Cartwright (D)(New district)Likely DLean DLikely DLikely DLikely DSafe D Matt Cartwright (D)
    Pennsylvania 10 R+6 Scott Perry (R)(New district)TossupLean RLean RTossupLean RLean R Scott Perry (R)
    Pennsylvania 11 R+14 Lloyd Smucker (R)(New district)Safe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Lloyd Smucker (R)
    Pennsylvania 14 R+14 Conor Lamb (D) (Running in 17th district)(New district)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Safe R (flip)Likely R (flip)Safe R (flip)Safe R (flip) Guy Reschenthaler (R)
    Pennsylvania 16 R+8 Mike Kelly (R)(New district)Lean RLikely RLean RTossupLean RLikely R Mike Kelly (R)
    Pennsylvania 17 R+3 Keith Rothfus (R)(New district)Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Likely D (flip)Likely D (flip)Safe D (flip) Conor Lamb (D)
    South Carolina 1 R+10 Mark Sanford (R) (Lost renomination)58.6% RLean RLikely RLean RLean RLean RLikely R Joe Cunningham (D)
    Texas 2 R+11 Ted Poe (R) (Retiring)60.6% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely R Dan Crenshaw (R)
    Texas 6 R+9 Joe Barton (R) (Retiring)58.3% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RSafe RLikely R Ron Wright (R)
    Texas 7 R+7 John Culberson (R)56.2% RTossupTilt RLean RTossupTossupTossup Lizzie Fletcher (D)
    Texas 10 R+9 Michael T. McCaul (R)57.3% RLikely RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Michael T. McCaul (R)
    Texas 21 R+10 Lamar Smith (R) (Retiring)57.0% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely R Chip Roy (R)
    Texas 22 R+10 Pete Olson (R)59.5% RLean RSafe RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely R Pete Olson (R)
    Texas 23 R+1 Will Hurd (R)48.3% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely RTBD
    Texas 24 R+9 Kenny Marchant (R)56.2% RLikely RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe R Kenny Marchant (R)
    Texas 25 R+11 Roger Williams (R)58.3% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Roger Williams (R)
    Texas 31 R+10 John Carter (R)58.4% RLikely RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely R John Carter (R)
    Texas 32 R+5 Pete Sessions (R)71.1% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupLean R Colin Allred (D)
    Utah 4 R+13 Mia Love (R)53.8% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupLean D (flip)TBD
    Virginia 2 R+3 Scott Taylor (R)61.3% RTossupTilt RLean D (flip)Lean RTossupLean R Elaine Luria (D)
    Virginia 5 R+6 Tom Garrett (R) (Retiring)58.2% RLean RLikely RLean RTossupLean RTossup Denver Riggleman (R)
    Virginia 7 R+6 Dave Brat (R)57.5% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupTossup Abigail Spanberger (D)
    Virginia 10 D+1 Barbara Comstock (R)52.7% RLean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip) Jennifer Wexton (D)
    Washington 3 R+4 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)61.8% RLean RLikely RLean RLean RLean RLean R Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
    Washington 5 R+8 Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)59.6% RLean RLikely RLean RLean RLean RLikely R Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)
    Washington 8 EVEN Dave Reichert (R) (Retiring)60.2% RLean D (flip)TossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupLean D (flip) Kim Schrier (D)
    West Virginia 2 R+17 Alex Mooney (R)58.2% RLikely RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Alex Mooney (R)
    West Virginia 3 R+23Vacant67.9% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely R Carol Miller (R)
    Wisconsin 1 R+5 Paul Ryan (R) (Retiring)65.0% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely R Bryan Steil (R)
    Wisconsin 3 EVEN Ron Kind (D)98.9% DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DSafe D Ron Kind (D)
    Wisconsin 6 R+8 Glenn Grothman (R)57.2% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe R Glenn Grothman (R)
    District CPVI IncumbentMost recent
    result
    Cook I.E. Sab. RCP Daily Kos 538 Winner

    Generic ballot polls

    Polls have also been conducted regarding respondents' party preference in the upcoming election. [42] Only unique sets of data from tracking polls are included. For example, the Ipsos/Reuters poll, which began tracking on May 19, 2017, has a sampling period of five days, so only every sixth tracking poll is included. When a poll includes results for both adults and either registered or likely voters, only results for the sample of voters is listed.