Next Senedd election

Next Senedd election
← outgoing members
All 96 seats to the Senedd ; 49 seats needed for a majority
	Opinion polls
Incumbent First Minister; Vaughan Gething ; Labour	; ;

Last updated May 25, 2024

The next Senedd election is due to be held on or before 7 May 2026^[1] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh : Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020, and the first following reforms to the voting system which increased the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96 and shortened its term from five years to four.^[2]^[3]

Retiring members

The following MSs have announced their intention not run for re-election:

MS	Constituency/Region	First elected	Party		Date announced
Mark Drakeford	Cardiff West	2011		Labour	9 August 2023^[4]

Electoral system

In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation.

Following the approval of the Senedd Reform Bill, the size of the Senedd will be increased from 60 to 96 MSs, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method). The elections will be organised in 16 six-member constituencies created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies.^[5]^[6] Another reform bill, which is yet to be adopted as of May 2024, would provide for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women (unlike the voluntary all-women shortlists used by the Liberal Democrats and until 2022 the Labour Party).

Opinion polling

Regional vote

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	AWA	UKIP	Reform	Others	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size									Others	Lead
22–23 Apr 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	33%	18%	19%	6%	7%	4%	–	12%	1%	14
23–24 Mar 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	32%	16%	18%	9%	7%	6%	–	11%	1%	14
20 Mar 2024	Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales ^[7]
18 Feb 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	29%	16%	25%	4%	8%	7%	–	10%	1%	4
24–26 Jan 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	34%	19%	21%	6%	6%	6%	–	7%	1%	13
10–11 Dec 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	28%	20%	24%	7%	8%	4%	–	7%	1%	4
12–13 Nov 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	32%	21%	18%	9%	6%	5%	–	7%	1%	11
14–15 Oct 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	31%	21%	24%	4%	5%	7%	–	8%	–	10
16–17 Sep 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	35%	21%	18%	6%	12%	2%	–	5%	1%	14
1–6 Sep 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	34%	16%	20%	6%	6%	9%	1%	6%	2%	14
13–14 Aug 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	31%	19%	22%	6%	10%	–	–	10%	3%	9
14–16 Jul 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	33%	20%	19%	6%	10%	–	–	6%	4%	13
17–18 Jun 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	30%	22%	20%	6%	9%	–	–	8%	4%	8
12–17 May 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	36%	16%	18%	7%	7%	5%	1%	7%	1%	18
14–15 May 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	30%	21%	24%	4%	10%	–	–	8%	4%	6
15–17 Apr 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	32%	22%	23%	7%	8%	–	–	7%	2%	9
3–7 Feb 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	39%	18%	20%	5%	5%	6%	0%	6%	1%	19
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	38%	16%	23%	5%	4%	8%	2%	4%	2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	15
20–22 Sep 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	37%	18%	21%	5%	5%	7%	2%	4%	1%	16
12–16 Jun 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	31%	21%	24%	6%	5%	6%	2%	6%	2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	7
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	34%	23%	20%	4%	6%	6%	1%	3%	2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	11
13–16 Dec 2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,009	35%	22%	19%	7%	3%	6%	2%	5%	1%	13
13–16 Sep 2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,057	33%	26%	19%	5%	4%	6%	4%	2%	1%	7
6 May 2021	2021 Senedd election ^[8]		–	36.2%	25.1%	20.7%	4.4%	4.3%	3.7%	1.6%	1.1%	2.9%	11.1

Constituency vote (Defunct)

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dems	AWA	Green	Reform	Other	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size								Other	Lead
8 May 2024	The Senedd Reform Bill is approved, abolishing the constituency component of the Senedd
22–23 Apr 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	37%	21%	22%	4%	3%	3%	10%	0%	15
23–24 Mar 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	36%	21%	21%	3%	3%	3%	11%	1%	15
20 Mar 2024	Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales ^[7]
18 Feb 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	34%	21%	19%	4%	6%	3%	13%	0%	13
24–26 Jan 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	39%	25%	18%	3%	3%	4%	9%	1%	14
10–11 Dec 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	41%	22%	17%	7%	3%	3%	7%	0%	19
12–13 Nov 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	40%	23%	18%	3%	3%	4%	7%	1%	17
14–15 Oct 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	37%	27%	18%	4%	5%	3%	6%	-	10
16–17 Sep 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	39%	27%	18%	5%	1%	6%	3%	1%	12
1–6 Sep 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	41%	18%	19%	6%	–	4%	8%	7%	22
13–14 Aug 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	37%	21%	20%	6%	–	3%	9%	4%	16
14–16 Jul 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	42%	22%	16%	6%	–	3%	7%	3%	20
17–18 Jun 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	36%	22%	19%	7%	–	3%	10%	3%	14
12–17 May 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	40%	18%	17%	7%	–	5%	8%	4%	22
14–15 May 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	38%	23%	20%	7%	–	3%	7%	2%	15
15–17 Apr 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	41%	21%	20%	5%	–	4%	8%	2%	20
3–7 Feb 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	43%	18%	20%	4%	–	4%	9%	1%	23
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	44%	17%	20%	6%	–	3%	7%	4%	24
20–22 Sep 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	40%	20%	22%	6%	–	3%	5%	4%	18
12–16 Jun 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	37%	24%	21%	6%	–	5%	5%	3%	13
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	38%	24%	21%	6%	–	3%	5%	4%	14
13–16 Dec 2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,009	40%	23%	17%	4%	–	5%	7%	4%	17
13–16 Sep 2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,057	37%	27%	19%	5%	–	4%	5%	5%	10
6 May 2021	2021 Senedd election ^[8]		–	39.9%	26.1%	20.3%	4.9%	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%	4.0%	13.8

Related Research Articles

The legislatures of the United Kingdom are derived from a number of different sources. The Parliament of the United Kingdom is the supreme legislative body for the United Kingdom and the British overseas territories with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland each having their own devolved legislatures. Each of the three major jurisdictions of the United Kingdom has its own laws and legal system.

A member of the Senedd is a representative elected to the Senedd. There are sixty members, with forty members chosen to represent individual Senedd constituencies, and twenty to represent the five electoral regions of the Senedd in Wales.

The Senedd, officially known as the Welsh Parliament in English and Senedd Cymru in Welsh, is the devolved, unicameral legislature of Wales. A democratically elected body, it makes laws for Wales, agrees to certain taxes, and scrutinises the Welsh Government. It is a bilingual institution, with both Welsh and English being the official languages of its business. From its creation in May 1999 until May 2020, the Senedd was officially known as the National Assembly for Wales and often simply called the Welsh Assembly.

The Senedd constituencies and electoral regions are the electoral districts used to elect members of the Senedd to the Senedd, and have been used in some form since the first election of the then National Assembly for Wales in 1999. New boundaries were introduced for the 2007 elections and currently consist of forty constituencies and five regions. The five electoral regions are: Mid and West Wales, North Wales, South Wales Central, South Wales East, and South Wales West, with the forty constituencies listed below. Voting last took place in all districts in the 2021 Senedd election, and is not used for local government.

North Wales is an electoral region of the Senedd, consisting of nine constituencies. The region elects thirteen members, nine directly elected constituency members and four additional members. The electoral region was first used in the 1999 Welsh Assembly election, when the National Assembly for Wales was created.

South Wales Central is an electoral region of the Senedd, consisting of eight constituencies. The region elects 12 members, eight directly elected constituency members and four additional members. The electoral region was first used in 1999, when the National Assembly for Wales was created.

South Wales East is an electoral region of the Senedd, consisting of eight constituencies. The region elects 12 members, eight directly elected constituency members and four additional members. The electoral region was first used in 1999, when the National Assembly for Wales was created.

There are four types of elections in Wales: elections to the House of Commons of the United Kingdom, elections to the devolved Senedd, local elections to community councils and the 22 principal areas, and the Police and Crime Commissioner elections. In addition there are by-elections for each aforementioned election. Elections are held on Election Day, which is conventionally a Thursday. Three of these four types of elections are held after fixed periods; the exception is UK general elections, the timing of which is at the discretion of the prime minister of the United Kingdom. Senedd elections may be postponed to avoid elections to the UK parliament and Senedd coinciding with each other.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Torfaen (Senedd constituency)</span> Constituency of the Senedd

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Neath (Senedd constituency)</span> Constituency of the Senedd

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Aberavon (Senedd constituency)</span> Constituency of the Senedd

Aberavon is a constituency of the Senedd. It elects one Member of the Senedd by the first past the post method of election. Also, however, it is one of seven constituencies in the South Wales West electoral region, which elects four additional members, in addition to seven constituency members, to produce a degree of proportional representation for the region as a whole.

The Welsh Conservatives is the branch of the United Kingdom Conservative Party that operates in Wales. At Westminster elections, it is the second-most popular political party in Wales, having obtained the second-largest share of the vote at every general election since 1931. In Senedd elections, the Conservatives are currently the second-most supported party but have at times been third. They hold 14 of the 40 Welsh seats in the UK Parliament, and 16 of the 60 seats in the Senedd.

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The Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party, or in Wales, simply Abolish, is a registered single issue political party in Wales. It campaigns for the abolition of the Senedd, formerly known as the "National Assembly for Wales", the devolved legislature of Wales. Abolish advocates that devolved powers be returned to the Secretary of State for Wales within the UK Central Government and the Parliament of the United Kingdom at Westminster.

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The 2021 Senedd election took place on Thursday 6 May 2021 to elect 60 members to the Senedd. It was the sixth devolved general election since the Senedd was established in 1999. The election was held alongside the Scottish Parliament election, English local elections, London Assembly and mayoral election and the Hartlepool by-election.

The Senedd Cymru Bill was introduced on 18 September 2023 to take forward proposals to expand and reform the Senedd in Wales. Proposals included created sixteen larger constituencies, each electing six members of the Senedd (MSs) by proportional representation. It was hoped to approve the bill in time to take effect from the 2026 Senedd election.

References

↑ Owens, Cathy (8 September 2021). "What to expect from the next five years in Welsh politics". WalesOnline. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
↑ MSs approve Senedd reform bill - nation.cymru
↑ Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead - BBC
↑ "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News . 9 August 2023. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
↑ "Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead". BBC News. 17 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
↑ "Senedd reform | GOV.WALES". www.gov.wales. 9 May 2024. Retrieved 17 May 2024.
1 2 "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
1 2 Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.

External links

Next Senedd election

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[1] Owens, Cathy (8 September 2021). "What to expect from the next five years in Welsh politics". WalesOnline. Retrieved 29 September 2021.

[2] MSs approve Senedd reform bill - nation.cymru

[3] Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead - BBC

[4] "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News . 9 August 2023. Retrieved 9 August 2023.

[millar-5] "Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead". BBC News. 17 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.

[6] "Senedd reform | GOV.WALES". www.gov.wales. 9 May 2024. Retrieved 17 May 2024.

[:0-7] 1 2 "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.

[2021SE-8] 1 2 Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.

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