Adaptive Modeler

Last updated
Altreva Adaptive Modeler
Original author(s) Jim Witkam
Developer(s) Altreva
Initial releaseAugust 26, 2005;18 years ago (2005-08-26)
Stable release
1.6.0 / July 20, 2020;3 years ago (2020-07-20) [1]
Operating system Windows
Platform .Net Framework 4.8
Available inEnglish
Type Financial markets software
License Freemium
Website www.altreva.com

Altreva Adaptive Modeler is a software application for creating agent-based financial market simulation models for the purpose of forecasting prices of real world market traded stocks or other securities. [2] The technology it uses is based on the theory of agent-based computational economics (ACE), the computational study of economic processes modeled as dynamic systems of interacting heterogeneous agents.

Contents

Altreva's Adaptive Modeler and other agent-based models are used to simulate financial markets to capture the complex dynamics of a large diversity of investors and traders with different strategies, different trading time frames, and different investment goals. [3] Agent-based models based on heterogeneous and boundedly rational (learning) agents have shown to be able to explain the empirical features of financial markets better than traditional financial models that are based on representative rational agents. [4]

Technology

The software creates an agent-based model for a particular stock, consisting of a population of trader agents and a virtual market. Each agent represents a virtual trader/investor and has its own trading rule and funds. The model is then evolved step by step in the following way: At every step a new (historical) real market price is imported. All agents evaluate their trading rule and place orders on the virtual market. The virtual market then determines the clearing price and executes all matching orders. The clearing price is taken as the forecast for the next step real market price. (So the virtual market serves as a one-step-ahead prediction market for the real market). This process is repeated for every new received real market price. Meanwhile, the trading rules evolve through a special adaptive form of genetic programming. The forecasts are thus based on the behavior of the entire market instead of only the best performing trading rule. This intends to increase the robustness of the model and its ability to adapt to changing market circumstances. [5]

To avoid overfitting (or curve-fitting) to historical data - and unlike many other techniques used in trading software such as optimizing of trading rules by repeated backtesting, genetic algorithms and neural networks - Adaptive Modeler does not optimize trading rules on historical data. Instead its models evolve incrementally over the available price data so that agents experience every price change only once (as in the real world). Also there is no difference in the processing of historical and new price data. Therefore, there is no specific reason to expect that a model's back-tested historical performance is better than its future performance (unlike when trading rules have been optimized on historical data). The historical results can therefore be considered more meaningful than results demonstrated by techniques based on optimization. [6]

Examples and use cases

In an example model for the S&P 500 index, [7] Adaptive Modeler demonstrates significant risk-adjusted excess returns after transaction costs. On back-tested historical price data covering a period of 58 years (1950–2008) a compound average annual return of 20.6% was achieved, followed by a compound average annual return of 22.2% over the following 6 year out-of-sample period (2008-2014).

Adaptive Modeler was used in a study to demonstrate increased complexity of trading rules in an evolutionary forecasting model during a critical period of a company's history. [8]

In a study of profitability of technical trading in the foreign exchange markets, researchers using Adaptive Modeler found economically and statistically significant out-of-sample excess returns (after transaction costs) for the six most traded currency pairs. The returns were superior to those achieved by traditional econometric forecasting models. [9]

Adaptive Modeler was also used to study the impact of different levels of trader rationality on market properties and efficiency. [10] It was found that artificial markets with more intelligent traders (compared to markets with less intelligent or zero-intelligence traders) showed improved forecasting performance, though also experienced higher volatility and lower trading volume (consistent with earlier findings). The markets with more intelligent traders also replicated the stylized facts of real financial markets the best.

As an example of virtual intelligent life in a complex system (such as a stock market), Adaptive Modeler was used as an illustration of simple agents interacting in a complex (nonlinear [ disambiguation needed ]) way to forecast stock prices. [11]

See also

Related Research Articles

Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets. It is related to and distinct from economics, which is the study of the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. Based on the scope of financial activities in financial systems, the discipline can be divided into personal, corporate, and public finance.

Financial economics is the branch of economics characterized by a "concentration on monetary activities", in which "money of one type or another is likely to appear on both sides of a trade". Its concern is thus the interrelation of financial variables, such as share prices, interest rates and exchange rates, as opposed to those concerning the real economy. It has two main areas of focus: asset pricing and corporate finance; the first being the perspective of providers of capital, i.e. investors, and the second of users of capital. It thus provides the theoretical underpinning for much of finance.

In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for analysing and forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. As a type of active management, it stands in contradiction to much of modern portfolio theory. The efficacy of technical analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis, which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable, and research on whether technical analysis offers any benefit has produced mixed results. It is distinguished from fundamental analysis, which considers a company's financial statements, health, and the overall state of the market and economy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Day trading</span> Buying and selling financial instruments within the same trading day

Day trading is a form of speculation in securities in which a trader buys and sells a financial instrument within the same trading day, so that all positions are closed before the market closes for the trading day to avoid unmanageable risks and negative price gaps between one day's close and the next day's price at the open. Traders who trade in this capacity are generally classified as speculators. Day trading contrasts with the long-term trades underlying buy-and-hold and value investing strategies. Day trading may require fast trade execution, sometimes as fast as milli-seconds in scalping, therefore direct-access day trading software is often needed.

Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using financial incentives. They are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A typical prediction market contract is set up to trade between 0 and 100%. The most common form of a prediction market is a binary option market, which will expire at the price of 0 or 100%. Prediction markets can be thought of as belonging to the more general concept of crowdsourcing which is specially designed to aggregate information on particular topics of interest. The main purposes of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs over an unknown future outcome. Traders with different beliefs trade on contracts whose payoffs are related to the unknown future outcome and the market prices of the contracts are considered as the aggregated belief.

Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment strategy based on the outlook for an aggregate market rather than for a particular financial asset.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bollinger Bands</span> Statistical price volatility chart

Bollinger Bands are a type of statistical chart characterizing the prices and volatility over time of a financial instrument or commodity, using a formulaic method propounded by John Bollinger in the 1980s. Financial traders employ these charts as a methodical tool to inform trading decisions, control automated trading systems, or as a component of technical analysis. Bollinger Bands display a graphical band and volatility in one two-dimensional chart.

Algorithmic trading is a method of executing orders using automated pre-programmed trading instructions accounting for variables such as time, price, and volume. This type of trading attempts to leverage the speed and computational resources of computers relative to human traders. In the twenty-first century, algorithmic trading has been gaining traction with both retail and institutional traders. A study in 2019 showed that around 92% of trading in the Forex market was performed by trading algorithms rather than humans.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Intelligent agent</span> Software agent which acts autonomously

In intelligence and artificial intelligence, an intelligent agent (IA) is an agent acting in an intelligent manner; It perceives its environment, takes actions autonomously in order to achieve goals, and may improve its performance with learning or acquiring knowledge. An intelligent agent may be simple or complex: A thermostat or other control system is considered an example of an intelligent agent, as is a human being, as is any system that meets the definition, such as a firm, a state, or a biome.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Pairs trade</span> Trading strategy

A pairs trade or pair trading is a market neutral trading strategy enabling traders to profit from virtually any market conditions: uptrend, downtrend, or sideways movement. This strategy is categorized as a statistical arbitrage and convergence trading strategy. Pair trading was pioneered by Gerry Bamberger and later led by Nunzio Tartaglia's quantitative group at Morgan Stanley in the 1980s.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Stock trader</span> Person or company involved in trading equity securities

A stock trader or equity trader or share trader, also called a stock investor, is a person or company involved in trading equity securities and attempting to profit from the purchase and sale of those securities. Stock traders may be an investor, agent, hedger, arbitrageur, speculator, or stockbroker. Such equity trading in large publicly traded companies may be through a stock exchange. Stock shares in smaller public companies may be bought and sold in over-the-counter (OTC) markets or in some instances in equity crowdfunding platforms.

In finance, a trading strategy is a fixed plan that is designed to achieve a profitable return by going long or short in markets.

The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to finance:

Trend following or trend trading is a trading strategy according to which one should buy an asset when its price trend goes up, and sell when its trend goes down, expecting price movements to continue.

Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on an exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that stock prices reflect all currently available information and any price changes that are not based on newly revealed information thus are inherently unpredictable. Others disagree and those with this viewpoint possess myriad methods and technologies which purportedly allow them to gain future price information.

An automated trading system (ATS), a subset of algorithmic trading, uses a computer program to create buy and sell orders and automatically submits the orders to a market center or exchange. The computer program will automatically generate orders based on predefined set of rules using a trading strategy which is based on technical analysis, advanced statistical and mathematical computations or input from other electronic sources.

Agent-based computational economics (ACE) is the area of computational economics that studies economic processes, including whole economies, as dynamic systems of interacting agents. As such, it falls in the paradigm of complex adaptive systems. In corresponding agent-based models, the "agents" are "computational objects modeled as interacting according to rules" over space and time, not real people. The rules are formulated to model behavior and social interactions based on incentives and information. Such rules could also be the result of optimization, realized through use of AI methods.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Volatility (finance)</span> Degree of variation of a trading price series over time

In finance, volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time, usually measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns.

Quantitative behavioral finance is a new discipline that uses mathematical and statistical methodology to understand behavioral biases in conjunction with valuation.

A financial data vendor provides market data to financial firms, traders, and investors. The data distributed is collected from sources such as stock exchange feeds, brokers and dealer desks or regulatory filings.

References

  1. "Altreva News". altreva.com. Retrieved 2021-03-24.
  2. "ACE Comp Labs and Demos". Department of Economics, Iowa State University. Retrieved 29 October 2014.
  3. "Reading the Markets - Insights from Financial Literature". Brenda Jubin, Ph.D. 2009-10-17. Retrieved 29 October 2014.
  4. LeBaron Blake (2006). "Agent-Based Financial Markets: Matching Stylized Facts with Style". pp. 221–236. CiteSeerX   10.1.1.125.997 . doi:10.1017/CBO9780511617751.013. ISBN   9780511617751.{{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help); Missing or empty |title= (help)
  5. "Altreva technology". Altreva. Retrieved 29 October 2014.
  6. "Adaptive Modeler". Altreva. Retrieved 29 October 2014.
  7. "Example models". Altreva. Retrieved 29 October 2014.
  8. Low Correlations between Dividends and Returns: The Alitalia's Case Archived February 15, 2010, at the Wayback Machine . Federico Cecconi and Stefano Zappacosta, IASTED Proceeding Modelling and Simulation 2008.
  9. New Evidence of Technical Trading Profitability. Viktor Manahov and Robert Hudson, Economics Bulletin, 2013, Volume 33, Issue 4.
  10. Manahov Viktor (2014). "The Implications of Trader Cognitive Abilities on Stock Market Properties". Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management. 21: 1–18. doi:10.1002/isaf.1348.
  11. "Applying Emergent Behaviour in the Financial Markets" (PDF). Evil Ltd. Retrieved 29 October 2014.