Coincidence

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A total solar eclipse at Orin Junction, Wyoming in 2017. A total solar eclipse happens when the Moon completely blocks the face of the Sun. It is the result of a cosmic coincidence: Even though the Sun is about 400 times bigger than the Moon, it is also about 400 times farther away. This makes the Sun and the Moon appear almost exactly the same size in Earth's sky. Total solar eclipse 2017 at Orin Junction, Wyoming - 03.jpg
A total solar eclipse at Orin Junction, Wyoming in 2017. A total solar eclipse happens when the Moon completely blocks the face of the Sun. It is the result of a cosmic coincidence: Even though the Sun is about 400 times bigger than the Moon, it is also about 400 times farther away. This makes the Sun and the Moon appear almost exactly the same size in Earth's sky.

A coincidence is a remarkable concurrence of events or circumstances that have no apparent causal connection with one another. [2] The perception of remarkable coincidences may lead to supernatural, occult, or paranormal claims, or it may lead to belief in fatalism, which is a doctrine that events will happen in the exact manner of a predetermined plan. In general, the perception of coincidence, for lack of more sophisticated explanations, can serve as a link to folk psychology and philosophy. [3]

Contents

From a statistical perspective, coincidences are inevitable and often less remarkable than they may appear intuitively. Usually, coincidences are chance events with underestimated probability. [3] An example is the birthday problem, which shows that the probability of two persons having the same birthday already exceeds 50% in a group of only 23 persons. [4]

A recent trio of "coindidences" involving the South African Springboks caused some astonishment after the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France. Wayne Barnes from England was chosen to referee the final between New Zealand and South Africa in his 111th and last test match. [5] In a "strange recurrence" of the numbers sequence 1-1-1 the South African Springboks won their last three matches (the quarter-finals, semi-finals, and final) by one point each. And what is more, if all the points are added scored against and by the South African team in those three matches, 28+29+15+16+11+12, then the total is found to be 111. [6]

Etymology

The first known usage of the word coindidence is from c. 1605 with the meaning "exact correspondence in substance or nature" from the French coincidence, from coincider, from Medieval Latin coincidere. The definition evolved in the 1640s as "occurrence or existence during the same time". The word was introduced to English readers in the 1650s by Sir Thomas Browne, in A Letter to a Friend (circa 1656 pub. 1690) [7] and in his discourse The Garden of Cyrus (1658). [8]

Synchronicity

Swiss psychiatrist Carl Jung developed a theory that states that remarkable coincidences occur because of what he called "synchronicity," which he defined as an "acausal connecting principle." [9]

The Jung- Pauli theory of "synchronicity", conceived by a physicist and a psychologist, both eminent in their fields, represents perhaps the most radical departure from the world-view of mechanistic science in our time. Yet they had a precursor, whose ideas had a considerable influence on Jung: the Austrian biologist Paul Kammerer, a wild genius who committed suicide in 1926, at the age of forty-five.

Arthur Koestler, The Roots of Coincidence [10]

One of Kammerer's passions was collecting coincidences. He published a book titled Das Gesetz der Serie (The Law of Series), which has not been translated into English. In this book, he recounted 100 or so anecdotes of coincidences that led him to formulate his theory of seriality.

He postulated that all events are connected by waves of seriality. Kammerer was known to make notes in public parks of how many people were passing by, how many of them carried umbrellas, etc. Albert Einstein called the idea of seriality "interesting and by no means absurd." [11] Carl Jung drew upon Kammerer's work in his book Synchronicity. [12]

A coincidence lacks an apparent causal connection. A coincidence maybe synchronicity—the experience of events that are causally unrelated—and yet their occurrence together has meaning for the person who observes them. To be counted as synchronicity, the events should be unlikely to occur together by chance, but this is questioned because there is usually a chance, no matter how small and in vast numbers of opportunities such coincidences do happen by chance if it is only non-zero, see law of truly large numbers.

Some skeptics (e.g., Georges Charpak and Henri Broch) argue synchronicity is merely an instance of apophenia. [13] They argue that probability and statistical theory (exemplified, e.g., in Littlewood's law) suffice to explain remarkable coincidences. [14] [15]

Charles Fort also compiled hundreds of accounts of interesting coincidences and strange phenomena.

Causality

Measuring the probability of a series of coincidences is the most common method of distinguishing a coincidence from causally connected events.

The mathematically naive person seems to have a more acute awareness than the specialist of the basic paradox of probability theory, over which philosophers have puzzled ever since Pascal initiated that branch of science [in 1654] .... The paradox consists, loosely speaking, of the fact that probability theory is able to predict with uncanny precision the overall outcome of processes made up of numerous individual happenings, each of which in itself is unpredictable. In other words, we observe many uncertainties producing certainty, and many chance events creating a lawful total outcome.

Arthur Koestler, The Roots of Coincidence [16]

To establish cause and effect (i.e., causality) is notoriously difficult, as is expressed by the commonly heard statement that "correlation does not imply causation." In statistics, it is generally accepted that observational studies can give hints but can never establish cause and effect. But, considering the probability paradox (see Koestler's quote above), it appears that the larger the set of coincidences, the more certainty increases, and the more it seems that there is some cause behind a remarkable coincidence.

... it is only the manipulation of uncertainty that interests us. We are not concerned with the matter that is uncertain. Thus we do not study the mechanism of rain; only whether it will rain.

Dennis Lindley, "The Philosophy of Statistics," The Statistician (Series D, 2000)

It is no great wonder if in the long process of time, while fortune takes her course hither and thither, numerous coincidences should spontaneously occur.

Plutarch, Parallel Lives , vol. II, "Sertorius"

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Frequentist probability</span> Interpretation of probability

Frequentist probability or frequentism is an interpretation of probability; it defines an event's probability as the limit of its relative frequency in many trials. Probabilities can be found by a repeatable objective process. The continued use of frequentist methods in scientific inference, however, has been called into question.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Pauli effect</span> Superstition that equipment only fails in the presence of certain people

The Pauli effect or Pauli's device corollary is the supposed tendency of technical equipment to encounter critical failure in the presence of certain people. The term was coined after mysterious anecdotal stories involving Austrian theoretical physicist Wolfgang Pauli, describing numerous instances in which demonstrations involving equipment suffered technical problems only when he was present.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carl Jung</span> Swiss psychiatrist and psychotherapist (1875–1961)

Carl Gustav Jung was a Swiss psychiatrist and psychoanalyst who founded analytical psychology. He was a prolific author, illustrator and correspondent.

Synchronicity is a concept first introduced by analytical psychologist Carl G. Jung "to describe circumstances that appear meaningfully related yet lack a causal connection." In contemporary research, synchronicity experiences refer to one's subjective experience that coincidences between events in one's mind and the outside world may be causally unrelated to each other yet have some other unknown connection. Jung held that this was a healthy, even necessary, function of the human mind that can become harmful within psychosis.

Physical causality is a physical relationship between causes and effects. It is considered to be fundamental to all natural sciences and behavioural sciences, especially physics. Causality is also a topic studied from the perspectives of philosophy, statistics and logic. Causality means that an effect can not occur from a cause that is not in the back (past) light cone of that event. Similarly, a cause can not have an effect outside its front (future) light cone.

Indeterminism is the idea that events are not caused, or are not caused deterministically.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Libertarianism (metaphysics)</span> Term in metaphysics

Libertarianism is one of the main philosophical positions related to the problems of free will and determinism which are part of the larger domain of metaphysics. In particular, libertarianism is an incompatibilist position which argues that free will is logically incompatible with a deterministic universe. Libertarianism states that since agents have free will, determinism must be false and vice versa.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Analytical psychology</span> Jungian theories

Analytical psychology is a term coined by Carl Jung, a Swiss psychiatrist, to describe research into his new "empirical science" of the psyche. It was designed to distinguish it from Freud's psychoanalytic theories as their seven-year collaboration on psychoanalysis was drawing to an end between 1912 and 1913. The evolution of his science is contained in his monumental opus, the Collected Works, written over sixty years of his lifetime.

Littlewood's law states that a person can expect to experience events with odds of one in a million at the rate of about one per month. It was framed by British mathematician John Edensor Littlewood.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Paul Kammerer</span> Austrian biologist (1880–1926)

Paul Kammerer was an Austrian biologist who studied and advocated Lamarckism, the theory that organisms may pass to their offspring characteristics acquired in their lifetime, meaning variation would be directed towards creating adaptations.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Astrological compatibility</span> Astrology that studies relationships

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The law of truly large numbers, attributed to Persi Diaconis and Frederick Mosteller, states that with a large enough number of independent samples, any highly implausible result is likely to be observed. Because we never find it notable when likely events occur, we highlight unlikely events and notice them more. The law is often used to falsify different pseudo-scientific claims; as such, it is sometimes criticized by fringe scientists.

<i>The Roots of Coincidence</i> 1972 book on parapsychology

The Roots of Coincidence is a 1972 book by Arthur Koestler. It is an introduction to theories of parapsychology, including extrasensory perception and psychokinesis. Koestler postulates links between modern physics, their interaction with time and paranormal phenomena. It is influenced by Carl Jung's concept of synchronicity and the seriality of Paul Kammerer.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Double-aspect theory</span> Theory in the philosophy of mind

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Neutral monism and the dual-aspect theory share a central claim: there is an underlying reality that is neither mental nor physical. But that is where the agreement stops. Neutral monism has no room for the central feature of the dual-aspect theory: the mental and physical aspects, sides, or properties that characterize the underlying entities of dual-aspect theory. The neutral monist accepts the mental/physical distinction.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arthur Koestler</span> Jewish Hungarian-British author and journalist

Arthur Koestler, was a Hungarian-born author and journalist. Koestler was born in Budapest and, apart from his early school years, was educated in Austria. In 1931, Koestler joined the Communist Party of Germany, but he resigned in 1938 after becoming disillusioned with Stalinism.

<i>Cosmos and Psyche</i> 2006 book by Richard Tarnas

Cosmos and Psyche: Intimations of a New World View is a 2006 book by cultural historian Richard Tarnas, in which the author proposes the existence of relationships between planetary transits and events in the lives of major historical figures, as well as cultural events.

In philosophy, a grouped event is the experience of two or more events that occur in sequence or concurrently that can be subsequently categorized.

<i>Synchronicity</i> (book) Book by Carl Gustav Jung

Synchronicity: An Acausal Connecting Principle, by Carl Gustav Jung, is a book published by Princeton University Press in 1960. It was extracted from Structure & Dynamics of the Psyche, which is volume 8 in The Collected Works of C. G. Jung. The book was also published in 1985 by Routledge.

Synchromysticism is the practice of attributing mystical or esoteric significance to coincidences. The word, a portmanteau of synchronicity and mysticism, was coined by Jake Kotze in August 2006. Synchromysticism has been described as a phenomenon "existing on the fringe of areas already considered fringe". Steven Sutcliff and Carole Cusack describe synchromysticism as "part artistic practice, part spiritual or metaphysical system, part conspiracy culture", while Jason Horsley describes it as "a form of postmodern animism" that "combines Jung's notion of meaningful coincidences with the quest for the divine, or self-actualization through experience of the divine."

References

  1. "Why Do Eclipses Happen? - NASA Science". science.nasa.gov. Retrieved 2023-11-12.
  2. Stevenson, Angus (2010). Oxford Dictionary of English. OUP Oxford. p. 339. ISBN   978-0-19-957112-3.
  3. 1 2 Van Elk, Michiel; Friston, Karl; Bekkering, Harold (2016). "The Experience of Coincidence: An Integrated Psychological and Neurocognitive Perspective". The Challenge of Chance. The Frontiers Collection. pp. 171–185. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-26300-7_9. ISBN   978-3-319-26298-7. S2CID   3642342.
  4. Mathis, Frank H. (June 1991). "A Generalized Birthday Problem". Carl Review. 33 (2): 265–70. doi:10.1137/1033051. ISSN   0036-1445. JSTOR   2031144. OCLC   37699182.
  5. https://supersport.com/rugby/rugby-world-cup/news/dcfae50f-053d-4533-afe2-1abb72b6d971/rugby-world-cup-final-referee-barnes-retires-after-111-internationals
  6. https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/pools
  7. that the first day should make the last, that the Tail of the Snake should return into its Mouth precisely at that time, and they should wind up upon the day of their Nativity, is indeed a remarkable Coincidence, which tho Astrology hath taken witty pains to salve, yet hath it been very wary in making Predictions of it ( A Letter to a Friend)
  8. ' Now although this elegant ordination of vegetables, hath found coincidence or imitation in sundry works of Art'(opening of the third chapter of 'The Garden of Cyrus')
  9. Jung, Carl (1973). Synchronicity: An Acausal Connecting Principle (first Princeton/Bollingen paperback ed.). Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN   978-0-691-15050-5.
  10. Koestler, Arthur (1972). The Roots of Coincidence (hardcover ed.). Random House. p.  81. ISBN   978-0-394-48038-1.
  11. Beitman, Bernard D. (2017-03-25). "Seriality vs Synchronicity: Kammerer vs. Jung". Connecting with Coincidence. Psychology Today.
  12. Koestler, Arthur (1972). The Roots of Coincidence (hardcover ed.). Random House. p. 87]. ISBN   978-0-394-48038-1.
  13. Carroll, Robert Todd (2012). "Synchronicity". The Skeptic's Dictionary.
  14. Charpak, Georges; Broch, Henri (2004). Debunked!: ESP, telekinesis, and other pseudoscience . Translated by Holland, Bart K. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press. ISBN   978-0-8018-7867-1.
  15. David Lane & Andrea Diem Lane, 2010, Desultory Decussation: Where Littlewood’s Law of Miracles meets Jung’s Synchronicity, www.integralworld.net
  16. Koestler, Arthur (1972). The Roots of Coincidence (hardcover ed.). Random House. p.  25. ISBN   978-0-394-48038-1– 1973 Vintage paperback:{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: postscript (link)

Bibliography

Further reading