This article has multiple issues. Please help improve it or discuss these issues on the talk page . (Learn how and when to remove these template messages)
|
Opinion polling for Canadian federal elections |
---|
2000 |
Opinion polls |
2004 |
Opinion polls |
2006 |
Opinion polls |
2008 |
Opinion polls |
2011 |
Opinion polls • By constituency |
Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election of 2006 (held on 23 January 2006) showed a long period of variable support for the governing Liberal Party of Canada and opposition Conservative Party of Canada. Prior to and throughout much of the campaign, the Liberals held a small lead over the Conservatives; as of early January 2006, the Conservatives had taken the lead. This was confirmed on election day when the Conservatives won a plurality of votes and seats, being empowered to form a minority government in the 39th Canadian parliament.
In the leadup to the 2006 federal election, several opinion polls were commissioned to gauge the voting intentions of Canadians, particularly in the wake of Jean Brault's testimony at the Gomery Commission on 7 April 2005. The results of these polls showed a dip in support for the Liberals, which encouraged the Conservatives to seek an early election by tabling a non-confidence motion. However, Liberal support recovered following an agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP) to support some changes to the federal budget and a number of incidents involving Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) Gurmant Grewal that hurt the Conservatives. Consistently since the Brault testimony, the polls have indicated that an election would result in an increase in the number of seats for the Bloc Québécois and NDP, and cyclical gains and losses for the Conservatives inversely to the Liberals.
In November 2005, the first report by Justice John Gomery was released to the public; subsequently, the poll numbers for the Liberals again dropped. Just days later, a new poll (Strategic Counsel: 6 November 2005) showed the Liberals were already bouncing back. On 28 November 2005, the minority Liberal government succumbed to another Conservative non-confidence motion supported by the three opposition parties and the writs for an election were dropped. The Conservatives achieved near parity but, early in the campaign, again fell back behind the Liberals. Renewed accusations of corruption and impropriety at the end of 2005 – amid Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) criminal probes concerning possible government leaks regarding income trust tax changes and advertising sponsorships – led to an upswing of Conservative support again and gave them a lead over the Liberals, portending a possible change in government.
Polling figures for the NDP increased slightly, while Bloc figures experienced a slight dip; figures for the Green Party did not change appreciably throughout the campaign.
The dates listed are normally the date the survey was concluded. Most news and political affairs sources use the convention of using the last date that the poll was conducted in order to establish the inclusion/exclusion of current events.
Polling firm | Last date of polling | Link | LPC | CPC | NDP | BQ | GPC | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Election | 23 January 2006 | 30.2 | 36.3 | 17.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | N/A | 14,817,159 | 6.1 | |||
Strategic Counsel | 22 January 2006 | 27 | 37 | 19 | 11 | 6 | ± 2% | 2,500 | 10 | |||
Nanos Research | 22 January 2006 | 30.1 | 36.4 | 17.4 | 10.6 | 5.6 | ± 3.1% | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 6.3 | ||
Ipsos-Reid | 22 January 2006 | HTML | 27 | 38 | 19 | 12 | 4 | ± 1.1% | 9,648 | 11 | ||
Nanos Research | 21 January 2006 | 28.1 | 37.0 | 17.7 | 11.3 | 6.0 | ± 3.1% | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 8.9 | ||
Strategic Counsel | 21 January | 27 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 6 | ± 2.2% | 2,000 | 10 | |||
Nanos Research | 20 January | 29.4 | 36.2 | 17.3 | 11.0 | 6.1 | ± 3.1% | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 6.8 | ||
EKOS | 20 January | 26.9 | 37.1 | 19.5 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 10.2 | |||||
EKOS | 20 January | 24.4 | 38.4 | 19.8 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 14 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 19 January | 26 | 38 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 12 | |||||
EKOS | 19 January | 27.0 | 37.1 | 19.7 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 10.1 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 19 January | 28 | 38 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 10 | |||||
Nanos Research | 19 January | 29.0 | 35.5 | 18.8 | 11.1 | 5.6 | ± 2.9% | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 6.5 | ||
EKOS | 19 January [3] | 27.3 | 37.4 | 20.8 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 9.9 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 18 January | 28 | 37 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 9 | |||||
Nanos Research | 18 January | 30.7 | 37.0 | 16.6 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 6.3 | |||||
EKOS | 18 January [3] | 29.3 | 35.1 | 18.0 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 5.8 | |||||
Leger Marketing | 17 January | 29 | 38 | 17 | 11 | — | 9 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 17 January | 25 | 41 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 16 | |||||
Nanos Research | 17 January | 31.5 | 36.9 | 17.6 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | |||||
EKOS | 17 January | 27.2 | 36.9 | 19.6 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 9.7 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 16 January | 24 | 42 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 18 | |||||
Nanos Research | 16 January | 30 | 37 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 7 | |||||
EKOS | 16 January [3] | 29.6 | 35.8 | 19.4 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 6.2 | |||||
Decima Research | 15 January | 27 | 37 | 18 | 11 | — | ± 3.1% | 1017 | telephone | 10 | ||
Ipsos-Reid | 15 January | 26 | 38 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 12 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 15 January | 27 | 40 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 13 | |||||
Nanos Research | 15 January | 29 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 8 | |||||
EKOS | 15 January | 27.2 | 38.6 | 18.6 | 10.6 | 4.4 | ± 3.2 | 968 | Telephone | 11.4 | ||
Nanos Research | 14 January | 30 | 38 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 8 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 14 January | 27 | 40 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 13 | |||||
Nanos Research | 13 January | 29 | 38 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 9 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 12 January | 28 | 38 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 10 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 12 January | HTML | 29 | 37 | 18 | 10 | 5 | |||||
Nanos Research | 12 January | 31 | 40 | 14 | 10 | 6 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 9 | ||
EKOS | 12 January | 28.3 | 37.6 | 18.1 | 11.6 | 3.7 | ± 2.0 | 2,045 | ||||
EKOS | 12 January [3] | 27.4 | 38.1 | 18.1 | 11.5 | 4.5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 11 January | 27 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 11 January | 29 | 38 | 16 | 12 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 9 | ||
EKOS | 11 January [3] | 28.8 | 36.3 | 17.9 | 13.3 | 2.8 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 10 January | 28 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 1,500 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 10 January | 30 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 4 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 9 | ||
EKOS | 10 January [3] | 29.9 | 37.1 | 17.6 | 11.6 | 3.2 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 9 January | 28 | 38 | 16 | 12 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 9 January | 31 | 35 | 17 | 13 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 4 | ||
EKOS | 9 January | 26.8 | 39.1 | 16.2 | 12.6 | 5.4 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 8 January | 26 | 37 | 18 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Decima Research | 8 January | 27 | 36 | 20 | 11 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 8 January | 31 | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 3 | ||
Strategic Counsel | 8 January | 29 | 37 | 15 | 13 | 6 | ± 2.5 | 1,500 | 8 | |||
Nanos Research | 7 January | 32 | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 2 | ||
Nanos Research | 6 January | 32 | 35 | 17 | 10 | 6 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 3 | ||
Ipsos-Reid | 5 January | 31 | 35 | 18 | 10 | 5 | ± 2.2 | 2,004 | 4 | |||
EKOS | 5 January | 30.8 | 36.0 | 17.5 | 10.6 | 4.7 | ± 2.2 | 1,968 | ||||
Strategic Counsel | 5 January | 31 | 33 | 17 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 5 January | 33 | 34 | 17 | 11 | 5 | ± 3.2 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 1 | ||
Leger Marketing | 4 January | 32 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 4 January | 32 | 32 | 17 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 4 January | 33 | 35 | 15 | 12 | 5 | ± 3.2 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 2 | ||
EKOS | 4 January | 30.4 | 36.2 | 17.9 | 10.4 | 4.7 | ± 2.7 | 1,386 | ||||
Strategic Counsel | 3 January | HTML | 32 | 32 | 17 | 13 | 6 | ± 2.5 | 1,500 | 0 | ||
Nanos Research | 3 January | 33 | 36 | 15 | 13 | 4 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 3 | ||
Strategic Counsel | 31 December 2005 | 33 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |||||
Nanos Research | 30 December | 35 | 35 | 14 | 13 | 4 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 0 | ||
Ipsos-Reid | 30 December | 32 | 33 | 18 | 12 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,000 | Telephone | 1 | ||
Decima Research | 30 December | 32 | 30 | 18 | 14 | |||||||
Nanos Research | 29 December | 35 | 34 | 14 | 13 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 1 | ||
Nanos Research | 28 December | 38 | 32 | 14 | 13 | 4 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 6 | ||
Nanos Research | 23 December | 38 | 31 | 15 | 12 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 7 | ||
Ipsos-Reid | 22 December | 33 | 32 | 16 | 13 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,000 | Telephone | 1 | ||
Strategic Counsel | 22 December | 36 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 22 December | 39 | 29 | 15 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Environics | 21 December | HTML | 35 | 30 | 17 | 12 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,010 | 5 | ||
Strategic Counsel | 21 December | 33 | 30 | 18 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Leger Marketing | 21 December | 36 | 28 | 17 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 21 December | 37 | 29 | 15 | 12 | 6 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 20 December | 34 | 30 | 16 | 15 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 20 December | 37 | 31 | 14 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 19 December | 33 | 29 | 17 | 15 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 19 December | 37 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 18 December | 34 | 29 | 19 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Pollara | 19 December | HTML | 37 | 34 | 17 | 10 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 18 December | 38 | 29 | 16 | 12 | 4 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 17 December | 38 | 30 | 15 | 13 | 4 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 16 December | 39 | 31 | 14 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 15 December | 34 | 30 | 18 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 15 December | 39 | 33 | 12 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 14 December | 34 | 30 | 17 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 14 December | 39 | 32 | 12 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Leger Marketing | 13 December | 35 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 6 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 13 December | 34 | 29 | 17 | 14 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 13 December | 38 | 31 | 14 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 12 December | 33 | 31 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||||
Nanos Research | 12 December | 38 | 30 | 13 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 11 December | 36 | 27 | 17 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Pollara | 11 December | HTML | 38 | 30 | 15 | 12 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 11 December | 34 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 11 December | 39 | 31 | 14 | 13 | 4 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 10 December | 35 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 10 December | 39 | 32 | 14 | 13 | 4 | ||||||
Decima Research | 9 December | 36 | 27 | 20 | 13 | 4 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 9 December | 39 | 30 | 15 | 11 | 4 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 8 December | 36 | 28 | 16 | 14 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 8 December | 41 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 4 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 8 December | 34 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Leger Marketing | 7 December | 39 | 27 | 16 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 7 December | 36 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 7 December | 40 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 4 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 6 December | 35 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 6 December | 40 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 4 | ||||||
Decima Research | 5 December | 34 | 26 | 20 | 14 | — | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 5 December | 35 | 29 | 16 | 14 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 5 December | 38 | 30 | 16 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 4 December | 35 | 29 | 16 | 14 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 4 December | 37 | 30 | 16 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 3 December | HTML | 34 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 6 | |||||
Nanos Research | 3 December | 38 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 2 December | 36 | 31 | 14 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 1 December | 33 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 1 December | HTML | 35 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 6 | |||||
Nanos Research | 1 December | 37 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
EKOS | 1 December | 34.1 | 27.4 | 18.4 | 14.0 | 6.0 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 30 November | 35 | 30 | 17 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 28 November | HTML | 31 | 31 | 18 | 15 | 5 | |||||
Decima Research | 28 November | 36 | 28 | 19 | 12 | — | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 27 November | 35 | 29 | 17 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Pollara | 27 November | HTML | 36 | 31 | 16 | 14 | — | |||||
Environics | 25 November | 35 | 30 | 20 | 14 | 1 | ||||||
EKOS | 24 November | 38.7 | 29.4 | 16.9 | 10.6 | 3.0 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 24 November | HTML | 34 | 30 | 16 | 15 | 5 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 15 November | 36 | 27 | 16 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
Decima Research | 14 November | 33 | 26 | 22 | 13 | — | ||||||
Pollara | 13 November | 36 | 28 | 20 | — | |||||||
Nanos Research | 13 November | 34 | 28 | 20 | 14 | 4 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 10 November | 34 | 28 | 19 | 14 | 4 | ||||||
EKOS | 9 November | 33.0 | 27.9 | 20.9 | 13.1 | 4.9 | ||||||
Leger Marketing | 8 November | 34 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 7 | ||||||
Decima Research | 7 November | 33 | 30 | 20 | 14 | — | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 6 November | 35 | 28 | 16 | 13 | 8 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 3 November | 28 | 31 | 20 | 13 | 7 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 2 November | 31 | 30 | 19 | 13 | |||||||
Nanos Research | 27 October | 40 | 28 | 15 | 12 | 4 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 27 October | 38 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 5 | ||||||
Pollara | 17 October | 38 | 30 | 17 | — | — | ||||||
Decima Research | 17 October | 35 | 29 | 17 | 13 | — | ||||||
Environics | 16 October | 38 | 27 | 20 | 10 | — | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 13 October | 38 | 25 | 15 | 14 | — | ||||||
Pollara | 2 October | 36 | 30 | 19 | 11 | — | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 29 September | 37 | 27 | 17 | 14 | 4 | ||||||
Decima Research | 26 September | 36 | 29 | 17 | 13 | — | ||||||
Praxicus | 23 September | 33 | 29 | 20 | — | — | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 13 September | 35 | 28 | 17 | 13 | 7 | ||||||
Leger Marketing | 11 September | 40 | 24 | 15 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 22 August | 36 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 6 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 15 August | 36 | 28 | 17 | — | — | ||||||
Nanos Research | 8 August | 39 | 25 | 19 | 13 | — | ||||||
Environics | 28 July | HTML | 34 | 31 | 20 | 11 | — | |||||
Decima Research | 25 July | 39 | 24 | 19 | 14 | — | ||||||
Pollara | 18 July | 38 | 27 | 15 | 13 | — | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 16 July | 35 | 26 | 19 | 13 | 7 | ||||||
Pollara | 28 June | 36 | 29 | 18 | 11 | — | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 28 June | 35 | 27 | 18 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
Decima Research | 20 June | 37 | 25 | 20 | 13 | — | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 20 June | 34 | 29 | 16 | 12 | 6 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 11 June | 34 | 26 | 19 | 13 | 9 | ||||||
Pollara | 6 June | 38 | 27 | 19 | 13 | — | ||||||
Decima Research | 5 June | 37 | 23 | 21 | 13 | — | ||||||
Decima Research | 22 May | 36 | 27 | 21 | 13 | — | ||||||
Leger Marketing | 22 May 2005 | 38 | 27 | 17 | 12 | 4 | ± 2.6% | 1,509 | 11 | |||
Ipsos-Reid | 20 May 2005 | 34 | 28 | 17 | — | 6 | 6 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 18 May 2005 | 33 | 30 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 3 | |||||
COMPAS | 17 May 2005 | 29 | 38 | 17 | 13 | — | 9 | |||||
EKOS | 17 May 2005 | 34.7 | 28.3 | 18.4 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 6.4 | |||||
Environics | 17 May 2005 | 33 | 31 | 22 | 10 | — | 2 | |||||
Decima Research | 15 May 2005 | 32 | 31 | 19 | 14 | — | 1 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 14 May 2005 | 27 | 31 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 4 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 10 May 2005 | 27 | 31 | 20 | 14 | 7 | 4 | |||||
Decima Research | 8 May 2005 | 37 | 28 | 18 | 12 | — | 9 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 7 May 2005 | 32 | 31 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 1 | |||||
Nanos Research | 5 May 2005 | 36.1 | 29.5 | 17.9 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | |||||
Pollara | 4 May 2005 | 31 | 36 | 17 | 15 | — | 5 | |||||
Decima Research | 2 May 2005 | 32 | 29 | 20 | 15 | — | 3 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 28 April 2005 | 30 | 33 | 17 | 12 | 5 | ±3.1% | 1000 | Telephone | 3 | ||
EKOS | 28 April 2005 | 32.5 | 30.5 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 2 | |||||
GPC P.A. | 28 April 2005 | 33 | 30 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 3 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 28 April 2005 | 30 | 28 | 18 | 16 | 10 | 2 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 24 April 2005 | 31 | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | ±3.1% | 1000 | Telephone | 3 | ||
Decima Research | 24 April 2005 | 27 | 32 | 21 | 15 | — | 5 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 21 April 2005 | 30 | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | ±3.1% | 1000 | Telephone | 5 | ||
Pollara | 21 April 2005 | 31 | 35 | 18 | 12 | — | 4 | |||||
Nanos Research | 18 April 2005 | 31.6 | 37.9 | 14.9 | 11.9 | 3.8 | 6.3 | |||||
Decima Research | 17 April 2005 | 28 | 35 | 18 | 14 | — | 7 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 14 April 2005 | 27 | 36 | 15 | 10 | 7 | ±3.1% | 1000 | Telephone | 9 | ||
COMPAS | 14 April 2005 | 30 | 34 | 18 | 15 | 1 | 4 | |||||
Environics | 14 April 2005 | 27 | 33 | 24 | 11 | 2 | 6 | |||||
Environics | 12 April 2005 | 36 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 6 | |||||
Leger Marketing | 11 April 2005 | 31 | 34 | 18 | 13 | — | ± 2.5% | 1,504 | Telephone | 3 | ||
Ipsos-Reid | 10 April 2005 | 27 | 30 | 19 | 12 | 7 | ±3.1% | 1000 | Telephone | 3 | ||
Decima Research | 10 April 2005 | 31 | 32 | 19 | 14 | — | 1 | |||||
EKOS | 9 April 2005 | 25.0 | 36.2 | 20.5 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 11.2 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 7 April 2005 | 34 | 30 | 15 | 10 | 7 | ±3.1% | 1000 | Telephone | 4 | ||
Last election | 28 June 2004 | HTML | 36.7 | 29.6 | 15.7 | 12.4 | 4.3 | 7.1 | ||||
NB: The margin of error in these surveys is typically between 2.5 and 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. See the links for actual error values associated with particular surveys. Because these figures are national percentages, they may not reflect the expected number of seats won by each party. Indeed, the sample size in many polls is not sufficient to give a statistically accurate prediction in individual ridings, and hence the expected number of seats.
All polling companies rely on cooperation from individuals contacted over the phone. The major companies claim a typical response rate is between 20 and 35 percent. [1]
Several websites, polling firms and notable Canadians devised various method of projecting the final election result. Included below are those cited in Andrew Coyne's blog. [2]
Projector | Conservative | Liberal | NDP | BQ | Other |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Results HTML | 124 | 103 | 29 | 51 | 1 |
ElectionPrediction.org | 118 | 104 | 29 | 56 | 1 |
democraticSPACE.com | 128 | 94 | 29 | 56 | 1 |
UBC Election Stock market | 127 | 93 | 33 | 54 | 1 |
jord.ca | 135 | 72 | 38 | 62 | 1 |
Loblaw Election Pool | 136 | 89 | 26 | 57 | 0 |
Laurier University | 140 | 78 | 33 | 56 | 1 |
Andrew Coyne | 140 | 81 | 31 | 54 | 2 |
TrendLines Federal & Provincial Riding Projections | 140 | 75 | 35 | 57 | 1 |
ElectionPolls | 141 | 79 | 30 | 58 | 1 |
PinnacleSports.com | 146 | 74 | 31 | 57 | 0 |
Ipsos-Reid | 148–152 | 62–66 | 34–38 | 56–60 | - |
The 1997 Canadian federal election was held on June 2, 1997, to elect members to the House of Commons of the 36th Parliament of Canada. Prime Minister Jean Chrétien's Liberal Party won a second majority government. The Reform Party replaced the Bloc Québécois as the Official Opposition.
The 1993 Canadian federal election was held on October 25, 1993, to elect members to the House of Commons of the 35th Parliament of Canada. Considered to be a major political realignment, it was one of the most eventful elections in Canada's history. Two new regionalist parties emerged, finishing second and third in seat count. Most notably, the election marked the worst defeat for a governing party at the federal level and among the worst ever suffered by a governing party in the Western democratic world. In a landslide, the Liberal Party, led by Jean Chrétien, won a majority government.
The 2004 Canadian federal election was held on June 28, 2004, to elect members to the House of Commons of Canada of the 38th Parliament of Canada. The Liberal government of Prime Minister Paul Martin lost its majority but was able to continue in office as a minority government after the election. This was the first election contested by the newly amalgamated Conservative Party of Canada, after it was formed by the two right-of-centre parties, the Progressive Conservative Party and the Canadian Alliance.
The Ontario New Democratic Party is a social democratic political party in Ontario, Canada. The party currently forms the Official Opposition in Ontario following the 2018 general election. It is a provincial section of the federal New Democratic Party. It was formed in October 1961 from the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation and the Ontario Federation of Labour (OFL).
The 1984 Canadian federal election was held on September 4, 1984, to elect members to the House of Commons of the 33rd Parliament of Canada.
The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, also branded as Manitoba's NDP, is a social democratic political party in Manitoba, Canada. It is the provincial wing of the federal New Democratic Party, and is a successor to the Manitoba Co-operative Commonwealth Federation. It is currently the governing party in Manitoba.
The 2007 Ontario general election was held on October 10, 2007, to elect members (MPPs) of the 39th Legislative Assembly of the Province of Ontario, Canada. The Liberals under Premier Dalton McGuinty won the election with a majority government, winning 71 out of a possible 107 seats with 42.2% of the popular vote. The election saw the third-lowest voter turnout in Ontario provincial elections, setting a then record for the lowest voter turnout with 52.8% of people who were eligible voted. This broke the previous record of 54.7% in the 1923 election, but would end up being surpassed in the 2011 and 2022 elections.
The 1988 Manitoba general election was held on April 26, 1988 to elect Members of the Legislative Assembly of the Province of Manitoba, Canada. It resulted in a minority government. The Progressive Conservative Party won 25 seats, against 20 for the Liberal Party and 12 for the New Democratic Party.
The 2006 Canadian federal election was held on January 23, 2006, to elect members to the House of Commons of Canada of the 39th Parliament of Canada.
The 2005 Canadian federal budget was the budget of the Government of Canada for the 2005–2006 fiscal year. It was presented on February 23, 2005, by Finance Minister Ralph Goodale. It was the first Canadian federal budget presented by a minority government since the budget of the Joe Clark Progressive Conservative government in 1979, which was defeated by the opposition parties.
The 2006 New Brunswick general election was held on September 18, 2006, to elect 55 members to the 56th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly, the governing house of the province of New Brunswick, Canada.
This article provides the timeline of the 2006 Canadian federal election, which was called on November 29, 2005 when the Governor General dissolved parliament following the government's defeat in a motion of no confidence. The election was held on January 23, 2006.
In the run-up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain. Results of such polls are displayed below.
The New Democratic Party is a federal political party in Canada. Widely described as social democratic, the party occupies the centre-left of the political spectrum, with the party generally sitting to the left of the Liberal Party. The party was founded in 1961 by the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF) and the Canadian Labour Congress (CLC).
This article covers the history of the New Democratic Party of Canada.
The 2008–2009 Canadian parliamentary dispute, during the 40th Canadian Parliament, was triggered by the expressed intention of the opposition parties to defeat the Conservative minority government on a motion of non-confidence six weeks after the federal election of October 14, 2008.
The 2016 Manitoba general election was held on April 19, 2016, to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba, Canada. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Greg Selinger, were defeated by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister, ending nearly 17 years of NDP government. The Progressive Conservatives won 40 seats, one of the largest majority governments in Manitoba history, the other one was in 1915 when Liberals also won 40 seats.
The 2019 Canadian federal election was held on October 21, 2019, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 43rd Canadian Parliament. The Liberal Party of Canada, having previously held a majority of the seats in the House, was returned with a minority of the seats, while the Conservative Party of Canada gained fewer seats than expected and the Bloc Québécois saw its standing revived in Quebec.
This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls conducted from the 2021 Canadian federal election leading up to the 45th Canadian federal election.