Opinion polling for the 2007 Scottish Parliament election

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This is a list of opinion polls for the 2007 Scottish Parliament election. The first figure for each party is for the 1st, first-past-the-post, constituency, vote; the second figure is for the 2nd, proportional representation, regional, vote. The Scottish Greens and the Scottish Socialist Party ran only one constituency candidate each in the 2007 election (the Greens in Glasgow Kelvin and the SSP in Paisley North) so constituency values in polls for those parties have little meaning.

Contents

ICM, Ipsos MORI, Populus, YouGov and TNS System Three (a subsidiary of Taylor Nelson Sofres) are all members of the British Polling Council (BPC), and therefore fully disclose the methodology used, and publish tables of the detailed statistical findings. Scottish Opinion (a brand of Progressive Partnership) and mruk are not BPC members.

Constituency vote

Pollster/clientDate(s)
conducted
Lab SNP Con Lib Dem SSP Green Others
2007 Scottish Parliament election 32.2%32.9%16.6%16.2%---
YouGov/The Daily Telegraph [ dead link ]2 May 200731%37%13%14%--5%
ICM/The Guardian/The Scotsman 30 April 200732%34%13%16%--5%
Populus/The Times 30 April 200729%33%13%15%--10%
YouGov/Daily Telegraph 26 April 200730%39%13%15%--4%
YouGov/ESRC 23 April 200730%38%12%15%---
YouGov/Sunday Times 20 April 200730%37%14%15%--4%
mruk/Herald 19 April 200734%38%11%13%---
Populus/Times 17 April 200730%34%13%18%--6%
Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday 15 April 200735%32%13%15%---
ICM/Scotsman 3 April 200727%32%13%19%5%-4%
TNS System Three/STV 1 April 200734%39%13%11%--3%
YouGov/Daily Telegraph 28 March 200729%35%13%14%--9%
mruk/Herald 27 March 200738%34%10%15%--3%
Scottish Opinion/Daily Mail 26 March 200728%34%11%11%-9%-
Populus/Times 25 March 200728%38%14%15%--6%
ICM/Scotsman 26 February 200729%34%16%16%1%--
ICM/Scotsman 29 January 200731%33%13%17%3%-3%
YouGov/Sunday Times 12 January 200729%35%13%18%1%2%2%
YouGov/Channel 4 8 January 200731%33%14%14%1%5%4%
ICM/Scotsman 23 November 200629%34%13%17%3%2%2%
ICM/Scotsman 30 October 200630%32%14%15%4%3%3%
Scottish Opinion/Sunday Mail 20 October 200632%35%11%16%2%-2%
YouGov/Sunday Times 7 September 200630%29%14%18%2%5%4%
TNS System Three/Herald [ dead link ]29 August 200636%28%12%17%4%3%-
TNS System Three/Herald [ dead link ]1 August 200637%29%13%14%3%2%-
TNS System Three/Herald [ dead link ]4 July 200637%31%11%14%3%3%-
Ipsos MORI 1 July 200628%30%15%19%1%4%3%
2003 Scottish Parliament election 34.9%23.8%16.5%15.1%6.2%-3.5%

Regional vote

Pollster/clientDate(s)
conducted
Lab SNP Con Lib Dem Green SSP Others
2007 Scottish Parliament election29.2%31.0%13.9%11.3%4.0%0.6%
YouGov/The Daily Telegraph [ dead link ]2 May 200727%32%13%10%9%-9%
ICM/The Guardian/The Scotsman 30 April 200729%30%13%16%4%3%5%
Populus/The Times 30 April 200728%31%14%15%4%1%7%
YouGov/Daily Telegraph 26 April 200727%31%13%11%9%3%7%
YouGov/ESRC 23 April 200727%32%14%12%---
YouGov/The Sunday Times 20 April 200728%35%13%13%--11%
mruk/The Herald 19 April 200736%37%11%11%3%--
Populus/The Times 17 April 200727%34%14%18%3%1%3%
Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday 15 April 200734%31%12%13%5%--
ICM/Scotsman 3 April 200727%31%12%17%5%5%3%
TNS System Three/STV 1 April 200725%36%11%13%6%3%7%
YouGov/The Daily Telegraph 28 March 200727%33%15%12%6%2%5%
mruk/The Herald 27 March 200737%35%10%14%3%-1%
Scottish Opinion/Daily Mail 26 March 200728%32%10%11%10%--
Populus/The Times 25 March 200730%35%14%14%4%1%2%
ICM/The Scotsman 26 February 200728%32%15%17%4%2%-
ICM/The Scotsman 29 January 200727%33%14%17%5%3%2%
YouGov/The Sunday Times 12 January 200730%32%14%14%5%1%4%
YouGov/Channel 4 8 January 200728%33%15%11%7%1%4%
ICM/Scotsman 23 November 200626%31%12%19%6%4%2%
ICM/Scotsman 30 October 200628%28%14%17%6%4%3%
Scottish Opinion/Sunday Mail 20 October 200625%28%11%26%4%5%1%
YouGov/The Sunday Times 7 September 200627%29%14%15%8%2%5%
TNS System Three/The Herald [ dead link ]29 August 200628%27%11%19%8%6%-
TNS System Three/The Herald [ dead link ]1 August 200629%32%10%15%8%4%-
TNS System Three/Herald [ dead link ]4 July 200629%33%9%17%5%5%-
Ipsos MORI 1 July 200626%28%16%19%6%1%4%
2003 Scottish Parliament election 29.3%20.9%15.5%11.8%6.9%6.7%9.0%

Seat predictions

The Scotsman stated that the findings of their 3 April poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: SNP 44 MSPs (+17), Labour 39 MSPs (-11), Liberal Democrats 24 MSPs (+7), Conservative 15 MSPs (-3).

The Sunday Times (12 January) stated that the findings of their poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: Labour 42 MSPs (-8), SNP 38 MSPs (+11), Liberal Democrats 19 MSPs (+2), Conservative 17 MSPs (-1), Greens 9 MSPs (+2), others 4 MSPs (-6).

Constitutional issue

Several polls were carried out on whether voters would support independence for Scotland, a key issue in this election and a central policy of the SNP. However, the results of such polls have historically been proven to be sensitive to the wording of the question used.

When polls give three options, including an option for greater devolution but stopping short of independence, support for full independence is much lower. In a poll by The Times , published on 20 April 2007, given a choice between independence, the status quo, or greater powers for the Scottish Parliament within the United Kingdom, the latter option had majority support (56%) with only 22% supporting full independence. [8] Even among SNP voters, more (47%) supported a more powerful Parliament than full independence (45%).

Other issues

The result for the Kelvin constituency in Glasgow being declared. Declaration Glasgow Kelvin.JPG
The result for the Kelvin constituency in Glasgow being declared.

On 4 April 2007, the BBC published the findings of a poll it had commissioned from ICM. The 1001 respondents were asked to rank a given list of issues, in the order which they thought "should be the priorities of the new parliament?" [9] [10] The respondents ranked the main issues as follows:

1. Schools/health

2. Police on streets

3. Council tax for 65s+

4. Local hospitals

5. Farming/fishing

6. Young offenders curfew

7. Free school meals

8. Buses/trains (not roads)

9. Scrap tuition fees

10. Community sentences

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References

  1. 1 2 "Labour turmoil as Scots back independence". The Sunday Times Scotland . 10 September 2006. Archived from the original on 10 March 2007.
  2. "YouGov / Sunday Times (Scotland) Survey Results" (PDF). YouGov. 7 September 2006. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 November 2006.
  3. Allardyce, Jason (10 September 2006). "Support doubles for Scottish independence". The Sunday Times. Archived from the original on 12 March 2007.
  4. Davie, Edward (10 September 2006). "Support for Scottish independence rises". Epolitix. Archived from the original on 30 September 2007.
  5. Mulholland, Hélène; Tempest, Matthew (2 November 2006). "Majority in Scotland wants independence, says poll". The Guardian .
  6. Hennessy, Patrick; Kite, Melissa (27 November 2006). "Britain wants UK break up, poll shows" . The Daily Telegraph . Retrieved 27 January 2022.
  7. "Vital gains forecast for SNP in swing from Labour". The Scotsman . 1 November 2006. Archived from the original on 12 July 2012. Retrieved 29 November 2007.
  8. Miller, Bill (20 April 2007). "How SNP could win and lose at the same time" . The Times .
  9. "Voters get behind public services". BBC News . 4 April 2007.
  10. "Scottish Omnibus Fieldwork Dates: March 29th-31st 2007" (PDF). ICM Research.