Transfer payments multiplier

Last updated

In Keynesian economics, the transfer payments multiplier (or transfer payment multiplier) is the multiply by which aggregate demand will increase when there is an increase in transfer payments (e.g., welfare spending, unemployment payments). [1] Transfer payments are not in the same theoretical category as government spending on goods and services because such payments are not directly injected into a goods market. Instead, the spendable funds are transferred to a member of the public, who then may spend some or all of them. For this reason, transfer payments are analyzed as negative taxes, and their multiplier is usually considered to be equal in magnitude but opposite in sign (specifically positive rather than negative) from that of taxes.

Contents

One dollar of transfer payments results in up to one dollar of spending by the recipient. In turn, the recipient of that spending has experienced an increase in income and spends a portion of it on more goods, giving the next person income some of which is spent, etc. The result of this chain reaction may be that aggregate spending, and hence equilibrium GDP, has gone up by more than the original dollar. However, the size of this multiplier effect is likely to be diminished by two considerations: first, an upward push that the new spending gives to interest rates, which diminishes spending on goods such as physical capital and consumer durables; and second, an upward push that the spending gives to the general price level, which diminishes the quantity of aggregate demand for several reasons [ citation needed ].

Because not all the original dollar is necessarily spent by the recipient of the transfer payment, the resulting multiplier is likely to be somewhat less than the multiplier of government spending on goods and services.

See also

Notes

  1. Macdonald, Nadia Tempini (1994). Macroeconomics and business. p. 138. ISBN   1-86152-450-1.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Keynesian economics</span> Group of macroeconomic theories

Keynesian economics are the various macroeconomic theories and models of how aggregate demand strongly influences economic output and inflation. In the Keynesian view, aggregate demand does not necessarily equal the productive capacity of the economy. Instead, it is influenced by a host of factors – sometimes behaving erratically – affecting production, employment, and inflation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Macroeconomics</span> Study of an economy as a whole

Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole. For example, using interest rates, taxes, and government spending to regulate an economy's growth and stability. This includes regional, national, and global economies.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tax</span> Compulsory contribution to state revenue

A tax is a compulsory financial charge or some other type of levy imposed on a taxpayer by a governmental organization in order to fund government spending and various public expenditures, and tax compliance refers to policy actions and individual behaviour aimed at ensuring that taxpayers are paying the right amount of tax at the right time and securing the correct tax allowances and tax reliefs. The first known taxation took place in Ancient Egypt around 3000–2800 BC. A failure to pay in a timely manner (non-compliance), along with evasion of or resistance to taxation, is punishable by law. Taxes consist of direct or indirect taxes and may be paid in money or as its labor equivalent.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Inflation</span> Devaluation of currency over a period of time

In economics, inflation is an increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose. The employment cost index is also used for wages in the United States.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fiscal policy</span> Use of government revenue collection and expenditure to influence a countrys economy

In economics and political science, fiscal policy is the use of government revenue collection and expenditure to influence a country's economy. The use of government revenue expenditures to influence macroeconomic variables developed in reaction to the Great Depression of the 1930s, when the previous laissez-faire approach to economic management became unworkable. Fiscal policy is based on the theories of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, whose Keynesian economics theorised that government changes in the levels of taxation and government spending influence aggregate demand and the level of economic activity. Fiscal and monetary policy are the key strategies used by a country's government and central bank to advance its economic objectives. The combination of these policies enables these authorities to target inflation and to increase employment. Additionally, it is designed to try to keep GDP growth at 2%–3% and the unemployment rate near the natural unemployment rate of 4%–5%. This implies that fiscal policy is used to stabilise the economy over the course of the business cycle.

A subsidy or government incentive is a form of financial aid or support extended to an economic sector generally with the aim of promoting economic and social policy. Although commonly extended from the government, the term subsidy can relate to any type of support – for example from NGOs or as implicit subsidies. Subsidies come in various forms including: direct and indirect.

In economics, the fiscal multiplier is the ratio of change in national income arising from a change in government spending. More generally, the exogenous spending multiplier is the ratio of change in national income arising from any autonomous change in spending. When this multiplier exceeds one, the enhanced effect on national income may be called the multiplier effect. The mechanism that can give rise to a multiplier effect is that an initial incremental amount of spending can lead to increased income and hence increased consumption spending, increasing income further and hence further increasing consumption, etc., resulting in an overall increase in national income greater than the initial incremental amount of spending. In other words, an initial change in aggregate demand may cause a change in aggregate output that is a multiple of the initial change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Aggregate demand</span> Total demand for final goods and services in an economy at a given time

In macroeconomics, aggregate demand (AD) or domestic final demand (DFD) is the total demand for final goods and services in an economy at a given time. It is often called effective demand, though at other times this term is distinguished. This is the demand for the gross domestic product of a country. It specifies the amount of goods and services that will be purchased at all possible price levels. Consumer spending, investment, corporate and government expenditure, and net exports make up the aggregate demand.

A tax cut represents a decrease in the amount of money taken from taxpayers to go towards government revenue. Tax cuts decrease the revenue of the government and increase the disposable income of taxpayers. Tax cuts usually refer to reductions in the percentage of tax paid on income, goods and services. As they leave consumers with more disposable income, tax cuts are an example of an expansionary fiscal policy. Tax cuts also include reduction in tax in other ways, such as tax credit, deductions and loopholes.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Transfer payment</span> Governmental wealth redistribution

In macroeconomics and finance, a transfer payment is a redistribution of income and wealth by means of the government making a payment, without goods or services being received in return. These payments are considered to be non-exhaustive because they do not directly absorb resources or create output. Examples of transfer payments include welfare, financial aid, social security, and government subsidies for certain businesses.

In macroeconomics, automatic stabilizers are features of the structure of modern government budgets, particularly income taxes and welfare spending, that act to damp out fluctuations in real GDP.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Government spending</span> Government consumptions, investments, and transfer payments

Government spending or expenditure includes all government consumption, investment, and transfer payments. In national income accounting, the acquisition by governments of goods and services for current use, to directly satisfy the individual or collective needs of the community, is classed as government final consumption expenditure. Government acquisition of goods and services intended to create future benefits, such as infrastructure investment or research spending, is classed as government investment. These two types of government spending, on final consumption and on gross capital formation, together constitute one of the major components of gross domestic product.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Balanced budget</span> Financial plan where revenues equal expenses

A balanced budget is a budget in which revenues are equal to expenditures. Thus, neither a budget deficit nor a budget surplus exists. More generally, it is a budget that has no budget deficit, but could possibly have a budget surplus. A cyclically balanced budget is a budget that is not necessarily balanced year-to-year, but is balanced over the economic cycle, running a surplus in boom years and running a deficit in lean years, with these offsetting over time.

In the study of tourism, the leakage is the way in which revenue generated by tourism is lost to other countries' economies. Leakage may be so significant in some developing countries that it partially neutralizes the money generated by tourism.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">AD–AS model</span> Macroeconomic model relating aggregate demand and supply

The AD–AS or aggregate demand–aggregate supply model is a macroeconomic model that explains price level and output through the relationship of aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Keynesian cross</span> Concept in economics

The Keynesian cross diagram is a formulation of the central ideas in Keynes' General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. It first appeared as a central component of macroeconomic theory as it was taught by Paul Samuelson in his textbook, Economics: An Introductory Analysis. The Keynesian cross plots aggregate income and planned total spending or aggregate expenditure.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Negative income tax</span> Proposed tax reform

In economics, a negative income tax (NIT) is a system which reverses the direction in which tax is paid for incomes below a certain level; in other words, earners above that level pay money to the state while earners below it receive money, as shown by the blue arrows in the diagram. NIT was proposed by Juliet Rhys-Williams while working on the Beveridge Report in the early 1940s and popularized by Milton Friedman in the 1960s as a system in which the state makes payments to the poor when their income falls below a threshold, while taxing them on income above that threshold. Together with Friedman, supporters of NIT also included James Tobin, Joseph A. Pechman, and Peter M. Mieszkowski, and even then-President Richard Nixon, who suggested implementation of modified NIT in his Family Assistance Plan. After the increase in popularity of NIT, an experiment sponsored by the US government was conducted between 1968 and 1982 on effects of NIT on labour supply, income, and substitution effects.

This glossary of economics is a list of definitions of terms and concepts used in economics, its sub-disciplines, and related fields.

Demand-side economics is a term used to describe the position that economic growth and full employment are most effectively created by high demand for products and services. According to demand-side economics, output is determined by effective demand. High consumer spending leads to business expansion, resulting in greater employment opportunities. Higher levels of employment create a multiplier effect that further stimulates aggregate demand, leading to greater economic growth.

Crowding-in is a phenomenon that occurs when higher government spending leads to an increase in economic growth and therefore encourages firms to invest due to the presence of more profitable investment opportunities. The crowding-in effect is observed when there is an increase in private investment due to increased public investment, for example, through the construction or improvement of physical infrastructures such as roads, highways, water and sanitation, ports, airports, railways, etc. According to Post – Keynesian macroeconomics views, in a modern economy operating below capacity, government borrowings can increase demand by generating employment, thereby encouraging private investment, thus leading to crowding-in.

References