2017 Copeland by-election

Last updated

2017 Copeland by-election
Flag of the United Kingdom.svg
  2015 23 February 2017 2017  

Copeland constituency
Turnout51.3%
 First partySecond party
  Official portrait of Trudy Harrison crop 2.jpg No image wide.svg
Candidate Trudy Harrison Gillian Troughton
Party Conservative Labour
Popular vote13,74811,601
Percentage44.2%37.3%
SwingIncrease2.svg8.5%Decrease2.svg4.9%

 Third partyFourth party
  No image wide.svg No image wide.svg
CandidateRebecca HansonFiona Mills
Party Liberal Democrats UKIP
Popular vote2,2522,025
Percentage7.2%6.5%
SwingIncrease2.svg3.8%Decrease2.svg9.0%

MP before election

Jamie Reed
Labour

Elected MP

Trudy Harrison
Conservative

There was a by-election in the British parliamentary constituency of Copeland on 23 February 2017 (the same day as the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election), following the resignation of Labour Member of Parliament (MP) Jamie Reed. Conservative candidate Trudy Harrison gained the seat from Labour, the first gain for a governing party in a by-election since 1982.

Contents

Result

By-election 2017: Copeland [1] [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative Trudy Harrison 13,748 44.2 Increase2.svg 8.5
Labour Gillian Troughton11,60137.3Decrease2.svg 4.9
Liberal Democrats Rebecca Hanson2,2527.2Increase2.svg 3.8
UKIP Fiona Mills2,0256.5Decrease2.svg 9.0
Independent Michael Guest8112.6N/A
Green Jack Lenox5151.7Decrease2.svg 1.3
Independent Roy Ivinson1160.4N/A
Majority2,1476.9N/A
Turnout 31,10851.3Decrease2.svg 12.5
Conservative gain from Labour Swing Increase2.svg 6.7

This was the first time since 1935 that Labour had failed to win the constituency or its predecessor, Whitehaven. It was also the first gain for a governing party at a UK by-election since the 1982 Mitcham and Morden by-election, where the incumbent Labour MP had sought re-election after defecting to the Social Democratic Party against the background of the Falklands War. It was the largest increase in the share of the vote of a governing party in a by-election since the Kingston upon Hull North by-election in January 1966. [3] According to Matt Singh of psephology website Number Cruncher Politics, it was the first directly comparable by-election gain for a governing party since the 1878 by-election in Worcester. [4] [5] By this, Singh meant that the governing party gained a seat:

The poor result for Labour triggered fresh criticism of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership of the party, with calls for him to stand down as leader. [6] [7] [8]

Background

The incumbent Labour MP Jamie Reed announced his intention to resign on 21 December 2016 [9] in order to become the new Head of Development & Community Relations at Sellafield Ltd, [10] where he had worked before becoming a politician. He was a critic of the Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, a reportedly unpopular politician in the constituency. [11] [12] Reed's resignation took effect on 23 January 2017. [13]

The election was held with the Conservatives considerably ahead of Labour in national opinion polls. [14]

Copeland and Whitehaven, the predecessor seat, had been represented by Labour since 1935. Although Reed supported remaining within the European Union, his constituency voted to leave in the June 2016 EU referendum. Because the constituency is not coterminous with any local authority, the exact result is unknown. Chris Hanretty, a Reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia, estimated through a demographic model that in Copeland, 60% of voters voted 'Leave'. [15] [16]

Candidates

Labour

Gillian Troughton, a Borough and County Councillor, was selected as the Labour Party candidate on 19 January. [17] During the EU referendum, Troughton had been an active Remain campaigner. [18] The short list to be Labour's candidate, announced on 12 January, had included Barbara Cannon, a former Borough and County Councillor, Rachel Holliday, founder of Calderwood House hostel, and Troughton. Long-listed candidates had included Thomas Docherty, who was the MP for Dunfermline and West Fife from 2010-5 and had previously applied to be the Copeland candidate, before losing to Reed. [19] Andrew Gwynne, shadow cabinet minister without portfolio, was Labour's campaign manager. [20]

Conservatives

On 25 January, Trudy Harrison was selected as the party's candidate. Harrison lives locally in the village of Bootle and has worked at Sellafield. [21] The Conservatives highlighted lower unemployment locally and improved standards in local schools. [22] [23] Possible Conservative candidate choices had included Stephen Haraldsen, their candidate in 2015, and Chris Whiteside, a former parliamentary candidate and their candidate in the 2015 Copeland mayoral election. [11]

UK Independence Party

The UK Independence Party's (UKIP) West Cumbria branch selected Fiona Mills as their candidate, a local National Health Service (NHS) worker, member of UKIP's National Executive Committee and county chairwoman, who had stood as the party's candidate in Carlisle in the 2015 general election. [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] UKIP leader Paul Nuttall ruled himself out of standing in this by-election, initially to focus on a potential by-election in Leigh, [29] then to contest the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election. [30]

Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrat candidate was confirmed on 12 January 2017 as Cockermouth Town Councillor, Rebecca Hanson. [31] She highlighted Brexit and the NHS. [32]

Green Party

On 24 January 2017, the Green Party announced Jack Lenox, a local software engineer, as their candidate for the by-election. [33] Given the party's opposition to nuclear power and the importance of the nuclear industry in the constituency, their campaign attracted more publicity than normal. [34] They also said that their candidate would be contesting an "anti-nuclear and anti-poverty campaign". [35]

Independents

Two independent candidates also stood. Copeland borough and Whitehaven town councillor Michael Guest announced his candidacy on 31 January, saying he was aiming to represent people "dissatisfied with party politics". [36] Whitehaven market stallholder Roy Ivinson, who also submitted nomination papers, had previously stood for seats in the area on a platform of stopping global warming. [37]

Campaign

An early issue in the campaign was plans to downgrade maternity services at West Cumberland Hospital in Whitehaven. The plans were defended by the Conservative Prime Minister, Theresa May. [12] In response to Labour criticism, the Conservative campaign said that decisions about local hospitals were the responsibility of the local NHS trust. [27]

Trade unions claimed that government cuts to Sellafield's employee pension scheme could "threaten the Conservatives' chances of winning the by-election". [38]

The Conservatives focused on Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and his long-standing opposition to nuclear energy and nuclear weapons. The constituency contains the Sellafield nuclear decommissioning plant and nuclear submarines are built in nearby Barrow, and Conservative election literature highlighted the potential risks to the Cumbrian economy of Labour policies. [27] Labour campaigners responded that the views of party leader Corbyn do not represent the views of the party. [27] The Conservatives also campaigned on a pro-Brexit line, suggesting that voting Conservative would ensure that Brexit is delivered, whereas voting Labour would encourage Labour to "ignore and forget ... the EU referendum". [39] [40]

It was reported that the Labour candidate had refused requests for interviews from Channel 4, whilst all other major candidates had accepted the request. [41]

A storm, named Doris, hit the constituency on polling day, which some commentators suggested might reduce turnout, [42] though in the event the turnout was relatively high for a Westminster by-election. [43] [44]

2015 result

General election 2015: Copeland [45] [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Jamie Reed 16,750 42.3 Decrease2.svg 3.7
Conservative Stephen Haraldsen14,18635.8Decrease2.svg 1.3
UKIP Michael Pye6,14815.5Increase2.svg 13.2
Liberal Democrats Danny Gallagher1,3683.5Decrease2.svg 6.7
Green Allan Todd1,1793.0Increase2.svg 2.1
Majority2,5646.5Decrease2.svg 2.4
Turnout 39,63163.8Decrease2.svg 3.8
Labour hold Swing Decrease2.svg 1.2

See also

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