Megaprojects and Risk

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Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition
Megaprojects and Risk- An Anatomy of Ambition cover.jpg
Author Bent Flyvbjerg
Nils Bruzelius
Werner Rothengatter
CountryUnited States
LanguageEnglish
SubjectEconomics, infrastructure
GenreNon-fiction
PublisherCambridge University Press
Publication date
2003
Media typePrint, e-book
ISBN 0-521-80420-5
OCLC 50271600

Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition is a 2003 book by Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius, and Werner Rothengatter, published by Cambridge University Press. According to chief economist and director of transportation policy at Infrastructure Management Group, Inc., Porter K. Wheeler, "this book makes an important contribution to understanding the infrastructure development process worldwide, with focus on megaprojects." [1] The New Scientist wrote upon publication, "Love them or loathe them, megaprojects capture the imagination. [This] damning analysis concentrates on a series of financial nightmares that should bring even the most casual reader out in a sweat." [2]

Contents

Overview

"Megaprojects" is the term applied to multibillion-dollar infrastructure developments such as massive dams and bridges, and to elaborate railways and highways. The book identifies a "megaprojects paradox," pointing out that more of these projects are being implemented, but such projects typically perform very poorly, often with substantial cost overruns and market shortfalls. [3] [4]

Chapters two to four examine the Channel Tunnel, which opened in 1994 at a cost of £4.7 billion following cost-overruns of 80 percent which caused several companies to nearly go bankrupt. Denver International Airport, which cost $5 billion, opened in 1995 following a 200 percent cost overrun, and passenger traffic in 1995 was only half that expected. There were also problems with Hong Kong's Chek Lap Kok Airport, opened in 1998, which had low revenues and negatively affected Hong Kong's economy, initially. [5]

According to the authors, the reason for such poor performances is that many of the participants in the process have incentives to underestimate costs, overestimate revenues, undervalue environmental impact, and overvalue economic development effects. [6] The authors argue that central problems are lack of accountability and inappropriate risk sharing, which can be improved by reforming the institutional arrangements of decision making and by instituting accountability at the project development and evaluation stages. [1]

Reception

The Times of London gave Megaprojects and Risk a cover story and wrote, "Life is too short to read every tome penned by Scandinavian and German social scientists. But Megaprojects and Risk, written by Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, is a cracker. In lurid and startling detail it examines dozens of vast construction schemes around the world." [7]

The International Journal of Urban and Regional Research wrote, "a timely intervention ... Flyvbjerg et al. have presented us with something close to a manifesto that should really be in the hands of every planning minister, regional and city planner, journalist and activist involved in mega-project development ... by the end I was wishing that more social scientists had such a lightness of touch and precise use of illustration. ... highly insightful." [8]

The Geographical Journal wrote, "this is the first [book] of its kind. It is concise and clear ... The subject matter is extremely interesting, timely and relevant. It sits within the tradition of ‘Victims of Groupthink’ and ‘Great Planning Disasters’ and attempts to find practical solutions. It is also highly suggestive of wider application beyond its immediate concerns." [9]

The Financial Express of India found the book, "a perfect complement to the richly textured arguments closer to home of Arundhati Roy in her damning indictment of the Narmada Dam and the Sardar Sarovar Project in The Greater Common Good ... The authors [of Megaprojects and Risk] provide a peep-show into social psychology [with] a wealth of empirical evidence ... Do read this book." [10]

Readership

Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition is widely read and cited. It has more than 3,500 cites on Google Scholar, making it the most cited book on megaproject planning and management. [11]

See also

Related Research Articles

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Risk management</span> Identification, evaluation and control of risks

Risk management is the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

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A project is any undertaking, carried out individually or collaboratively and possibly involving research or design, that is carefully planned to achieve a particular goal.

Getlink, formerly Groupe Eurotunnel, is a European public company based in Paris that manages and operates the infrastructure of the Channel Tunnel between France and the United Kingdom, operates the LeShuttle railway service, and earns revenue on other trains that operate through the tunnel.

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Build–operate–transfer (BOT) or build–own–operate–transfer (BOOT) is a form of project delivery method, usually for large-scale infrastructure projects, wherein a private entity receives a concession from the public sector to finance, design, construct, own, and operate a facility stated in the concession contract. The private entity will have the right to operate it for a set period of time. This enables the project proponent to recover its investment and operating and maintenance expenses in the project.

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<i>Rationality and Power</i> Book by Bent Flyvbjerg

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Megaproject</span> Extremely large-scale investment project

A megaproject is an extremely large-scale investment project. According to the Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management, "Megaprojects are large-scale, complex ventures that typically cost $1 billion or more, take many years to develop and build, involve multiple public and private stakeholders, are transformational, and impact millions of people". However, $1 billion is not a constraint in defining megaprojects; in some contexts a relative approach is needed, such as in developing countries, where a much smaller project could constitute a megaproject. Therefore, a more general definition is "Megaprojects are temporary endeavours characterised by: large investment commitment, vast complexity, and long-lasting impact on the economy, the environment, and society".

A cost overrun, also known as a cost increase or budget overrun, involves unexpected incurred costs. When these costs are in excess of budgeted amounts due to a value engineering underestimation of the actual cost during budgeting, they are known by these terms.

Bent Flyvbjerg is a Danish economic geographer. He was the First BT Professor and Inaugural Chair of Major Programme Management at Oxford University's Saïd Business School and is the Villum Kann Rasmussen Professor and Chair of Major Program Management at the IT University of Copenhagen. He was previously Professor of Planning at Aalborg University, Denmark and Chair of Infrastructure Policy and Planning at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. He is a fellow of St Anne's College, Oxford.

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<i>Making Social Science Matter</i>

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References

  1. 1 2 Wheeler, Porter K. (2004). "Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition" (PDF). Journal of the Transportation Research Forum. 43 (1): 145–148.
  2. New Scientist , vol. 177, no. 2388, March 29, 2003.
  3. Clark, Gordon L. (March 2005). "Book Review: Megaprojects and Risk". Planning Theory. 4 (1): 115–119. doi: 10.1177/147309520500400107 .
  4. Brown, Peter H. (November 2005). "Book Review: Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition". Economic Development Quarterly. 19 (4): 387–388. doi:10.1177/0891242405279767. S2CID   145525718.
  5. Flyvbjerg, B. Buzelius, N. Rothengatter, W. (2003). Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN   0-521-00946-4.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  6. Zahariadis, Nikolaos (September 2004). "Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition". Perspectives on Politics. 2 (3): 609–610. doi:10.1017/S1537592704620378. S2CID   145410477.
  7. The Times, London, April 16, 2003.
  8. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research , vol. 29, no. 1, March 2005.
  9. Geographical Journal , vol. 170, no. 2, 2004.
  10. Financial Express , India, July 13, 2003.
  11. Li, Yongkui, Yujie Lu, John E. Taylor, and Yilong Han, 2018, "Bibliographic and Comparative Analyses to Explore Emerging Classic Texts in Megaproject Management," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 36, no. 2, February, pp. 241-396.