Next Supreme Leader of Iran election

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Next Iranian Supreme Leader election
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88 Members in the Assembly of Experts
59 votes needed to win

An election for the third Supreme Leader of Iran is scheduled to be held following the end of the current tenure of Ali Khamenei. As of January 2024, no person has been officially declared as the heir to the current leader nor as a nominee, though various sources have written on potential candidates.

Contents

The succession of Khamenei is deemed to have been decided but isn't disclosed publicly. [1] [2] Constitutionally, the Assembly of Experts is tasked to select the next leader. Its fifth and current term was elected in 2016 and is scheduled to sit until 2024. [3]

Khamenei has not discussed his replacement. He has said selecting the future leader must be without care and shame and or regard expediency but based on only the 3 principles of "truth, the need of the country, and God". [4] [5]

A four man council of Assembly of Experts is examining possible candidates while keeping it fully secret and advising the current supreme leader as of 2024. [6] [7]

Constitutional eligibility

Wikisource-logo.svg Works related to Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran at Wikisource

The Supreme Leader of Iran is selected by members of the Assembly of Experts to serve a life tenure. According to Article 111 of Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, if the incumbent Supreme Leader dies in office or is dismissed, the Assembly of Experts should immediately hold a session and appoint a successor. [3] A 'Provisional Leadership Council' is mandated to carry out the responsibilities of the supreme leader until a permanent successor is selected, which is made up of the incumbent President, the incumbent Chief Justice, and one of clerics of the Guardian Council who is selected by the Expediency Discernment Council. [3]

Alleged plans

In December 2015, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said a committee in the Assembly of Experts "is examining potential candidates to be the next Supreme Leader." He also said the Assembly would be open to choosing "a council of leaders if needed" instead of a single leader. [1]

Ahmad Khatami told press in 2016 that a committee made up of three Assembly members had given three names to the supreme leader "to seek his verdict", but later remarked what he said was "hypothetical" and blamed media for misreporting his words. [8] Mohsen Araki, commented in June 2019 that the committee has drafted a "top secret list of prospective supreme leaders" and will present three names to the Assembly "when it is necessary." [8] Hashem Hashemzadeh Herisi confirmed that such a committee exists, adding that the names on the list will not be disclosed. He also stated that the decisions made by the committee will not be fateful because the next leader must be voted by a majority of all members in the assembly. [8] Prior to that, in February 2019 Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari had categorically dismissed allegations that Ebrahim Raisi and Ahmad Khatami were considered as candidates for the next leader by the assembly, stating that the question "has never been debated at the assembly". [9]

As of 2023, the Assembly of Experts is discussing a potential program to reestablish the post of Vice Supreme Leader, which was last held by Hussein-Ali Montazeri from 1985 to 1989. [10]

Analysis

In 2023, Israeli military intelligence had assessed President Ebrahim Raisi would succeed Khamenei. [11] John Bolton argued the regime would be vulnerable in the event of Khamenei's death. [12]

Speculations about potential successors by commentators

The persons listed in this section are, according to analyses and comments made by various sources, potential candidates (the names are sorted by age):

Hassan Rouhani Hassan Khomeini Mohsen Araki Alireza Arafi
Hassan Rouhani 2020.jpg
Hassan Khomeini - 27 May 2018.jpg
Araki-2015.jpg
Alireza Arafi 13990824 0146818.jpg
75 years, 140 days51 years, 119 daysc.67–68 yearsc.64–65 years
[2] [2] [3] [13] [14] [15] [3] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [3]
Ebrahim Raisi Mojtaba Khamenei Sadeq Larijani Mohammad-Mahdi Mirbagheri
2022 Ebrahim Raisi.jpg
Mojtaba Khamenei 2019.jpg
Sixth International Conference in Support of the Palestinian Intifada, Tehran (15) (crop of Sadeq Larijani).jpg
Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri 13990521 0146241 (cropped).jpg
63 years, 108 days54 years, 205 days63 years, 19 daysc.62–63 years
[3] [15] [16] [17] [19] [20] [21] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [3] [13] [16] [18] [20] [23] [24] [25] [26] [3] [13] [15] [17] [18] [20] [25] [26]

Deceased candidates

People mentioned below had been regarded as potential candidates during their lifetime.

Abbas Vaez-Tabasi Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi Ebrahim Amini Mohammad Yazdi Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi
Abbas Vaez-Tabasi.jpg
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani by Fars 02.jpg
Hashemi Shahroudi portrait 02.jpg
Ebrahim Amini brhym myny 11.jpg
Mohammad Yazdi 1399091913465979321782964.jpg
Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi 13980909 1144279.jpg
1935–20161934–20171948–20181925–20201931–20201934–2021
[13] [2] [13] [14] [28] [2] [13] [14] [16] [15] [20] [21] [23] [24] [28] [29] [2] [13] [13] [14] [20] [26]

Further reading

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ali Khamenei</span> Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989

Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei is an Iranian Twelver Shia marja' and politician who has been the second supreme leader of Iran since 1989. He previously served as third president of Iran from 1981 to 1989. Khamenei is the longest-serving head of state in the Middle East, as well as the second-longest-serving Iranian leader of the last century, after Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Assembly of Experts</span> Iranian governmental body

The Assembly of Experts, also translated as the Assembly of Experts of the Leadership or as the Council of Experts, is the deliberative body empowered to appoint the Supreme Leader of Iran. All directly elected members must first be vetted by the Guardian Council.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mohammad Yazdi</span> Iranian Ayatollah (1931-2020)

Mohammad Yazdi was an Iranian conservative and principlist cleric who served as the head of Judiciary System of Iran between 1989 and 1999. In 2015, he was elected to lead Iran's Assembly of Experts, defeating Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president, by a vote count of 47 to 24.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Combatant Clergy Association</span> Political party in Iran

The Combatant Clergy Association is a politically active group in Iran, but not a political party in the traditional sense.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2006 Iranian Assembly of Experts election</span> 4th Iranian Assembly of Experts election

The fourth Iranian Assembly of Experts election was held on 15 December 2006. The Assembly of Experts is a Council of 86 mujtahids that elect the Supreme Leader, and oversee his actions. The members of the Assembly are elected every eight years directly by the people of Iran.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hassan Khomeini</span> Iranian cleric (born 1972)

Sayyid Hassan Khomeini is an Iranian cleric. He has been called "the most prominent" grandchild of Ruhollah Khomeini, who had 15 grandchildren in total, and the one "who many think could have a promising political future".

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Supreme Leader of Iran</span> Head of State of the Islamic Republic of Iran

The Supreme Leader of Iran ), also referred to as Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, but officially called the Supreme Leadership Authority, is the head of state and the highest political and religious authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The armed forces, judiciary, state television, and other key government organizations such as the Guardian Council and Expediency Discernment Council are subject to the Supreme Leader. According to the constitution, the Supreme Leader delineates the general policies of the Islamic Republic, supervising the legislature, the judiciary, and the executive branches. The current lifetime officeholder, Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khameneh known as Ali Khamenei, has issued decrees and made the final decisions on the economy, the environment, foreign policy, education, national planning, and other aspects of governance in Iran. Khamenei also makes the final decisions on the amount of transparency in elections, and has dismissed and reinstated presidential cabinet appointees. The Supreme Leader is legally considered "inviolable", with Iranians being routinely punished for questioning or insulting him.

The fifth Iranian Assembly of Experts election were held in Iran on 26 February 2016 to elect the members of the Assembly of Experts. All 88 members of the Assembly of Experts, who are known as mujtahids, are directly elected. The elections had been planned for 2014, but were delayed in order for the election to be held alongside the Islamic Consultative Assembly elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ebrahim Raisi</span> 8th President of Iran since 2021

Sayyid Ebrahim Raisolsadati, commonly known as Ebrahim Raisi, is an Iranian Principlist politician, Muslim jurist, and the eighth and current president of Iran since 3 August 2021, following his election to the presidency in the 2021 election.

The second Iranian Assembly of Experts election was held on October 8, 1990, to elect all 83 members in 24 constituencies. The election was the first election of the assembly since Ayatollah Khomeini's death and election of Ali Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. This election had the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran with 37.09% of the eligible voters participating.

The first Iranian Assembly of Experts election was held on December 10 1982, to elect all 82 members in 24 constituencies. 18,013,061 citizens voted in the elections, marking a 77.38% turnout. Out of 168 individuals registered to run, 146 (86.90%) were qualified allowed to do so.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021 Iranian presidential election</span>

Presidential elections were held in Iran on 18 June 2021, the thirteenth since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Ebrahim Raisi, the then Chief Justice of Iran, was declared the winner in a highly controversial election. The election began with the mass disqualification of popular candidates by the Guardian Council, and broke records of the lowest turnout in Iranian electoral history, as well as had the highest share of protest blank, invalid and lost votes despite a declaration by the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, considering protest voting religiously forbidden (haraam) as it would "weaken the regime." Reporters Without Borders reported 42 cases of journalists being summoned or threatened for writing about candidates, and the chief of the police threatened people who discouraged others to vote.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Abbas Ali Akhtari</span> Iranian Ayatollah (1939–2022)

Sheikh Abbas Ali Akhtari was an Iranian Ayatollah. He represented the Supreme Leader of Iran in Semnan province, while also serving as the Imam of Friday Prayer in Semnan. He also represented the people in Khorasan province in the early 80's for the first term of the Islamic Consultative Assembly. He later represented the people of Tehran province for the seventh term of the Iranian Parliament. He was a member of Assembly of Experts, from February 2021 to October 2022 in the fifth term of the Assembly of Experts, after the death of Nasrallah Shah-Abadi. He was elected in the first midterm elections of the Assembly of Experts on 23 February 2020.

References

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  5. ↑ رادیوفردا (10 March 2016). "خامنه‌ای: لازم است در انتخاب رهبر رودربایستی و مصلحت‌اندیشی نباشد". Radio Farda (in Persian). Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  6. ↑ "عضو مجلس خبرگان ایران: کار برای انتخاب جانشین رهبر ایران به طور "کاملا مخفی" جریان دارد". Afghanistan International (in Persian). 28 November 2023. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  7. ↑ "ماجرای صحبت‌های آیت‌الله توکل درباره انتخاب قائم‌مقام رهبری چه بود؟" [What was the story of Ayatollah Tawakkel's talks about the selection of the deputy leadership?]. اعتمادآنلاین (in Persian). 29 November 2023. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
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  10. ↑ "توکل، عضو مجلس خبرگان: در کمیسیون‌های خبرگان در مورد قائم مقام رهبری کار می‌کنند" [Tawakkul, member of the Assembly of Experts: They work in expert commissions regarding the deputy leadership]. Iran International (in Persian). 28 November 2023. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  11. ↑ فردا, رادیو (22 August 2023). "سازمان اطلاعات نظامی ارتش اسرائیل: رئیسی احتمالاً رهبر بعدی جمهوری اسلامی است" [Israel Military Intelligence Organization: Raisi is likely to be the next leader of the Islamic Republic]. Radio Farda (in Persian). Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  12. ↑ "Bolton Foresees Regime Change In Iran After Khamenei's Death". Iran International. 11 August 2023. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
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