Opinion polling for the 2015 Canadian federal election by constituency

Last updated

Various polling organisations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2015 Canadian general election. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Contents

Opinion polls have been conducted from the months following the previous general election held in May 2011, and have increased in frequency leading up to the general election.

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

A total of 204 polls in 107 ridings across 9 provinces and 1 territory were conducted.

Constituency polls

Alberta

Calgary Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 13, 2015 HTML 38193960±3.72 pp688IVR
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 47113930±4.3 pp531IVR
Environics August 18, 2015 PDF 44173270±4.3 pp517IVR
2012 By-election November 26, 2012 HTML 37433261±0.0 pp27,732Election
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 551519100±0.0 pp41,452Election

Calgary Confederation

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 14, 2015 HTML 37193860±3.7 pp679IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 521618140±0.0 pp50,770Election

Edmonton Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
ThinkHQOctober 15, 2015 PDF 36243342±4.3 pp517IVR
Mainstreet Research October 8, 2015 PDF 31382730±3.7 pp701IVR
Forum Research September 25, 2015 HTML 40302740±5.0 pp524IVR
Environics September 16, 2015 PDF 39352250±4.2 pp547IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 46262441±0.0 pp43,093Election

Edmonton Griesbach

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics August 16, 2015 PDF 32481550±4.3 pp509IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 5337730±0.0 pp37,766Election

Edmonton Manning

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 16, 2015 PDF 45331840±4.3 pp512IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 5527936±0.0 pp34,180Election

Edmonton Mill Woods

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 8, 2015 PDF 39153970±3.73 pp684IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 59251231±0.0 pp35,454Election

Edmonton Riverbend

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 16, 2015 PDF 44341840±4.3 pp522IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 59211550±0.0 pp43,267Election

Edmonton West

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 16, 2015 PDF 48192940±3.9 pp618IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 64191340±0.0 pp43,267Election

Fort McMurray—Cold Lake

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 10, 2015 HTML 45153550±4.4 pp494IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 73131140±0.0 pp25,650Election

Lethbridge

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 13, 2015 HTML 56261340±3.81 pp657IVR
Environics September 17, 2015 PDF 48341450±3.8 pp639IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 5230954±0.0 pp41,165Election

St. Albert—Edmonton

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 13, 2015 HTML 43207228±3.74 pp681IVR
Forum Research September 25, 2015 HTML 381910429±5.0 pp490IVR
Environics September 17, 2015 PDF 392015422±3.1 pp1,030IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 64201150±0.0 pp42,842Election

Yellowhead

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 10, 2015 HTML 63151533±4.1 pp569IVR
2014 By-election November 17, 2014 HTML 63102053±0.0 pp12,601Election
Forum Research November 16, 2014 PDF 511324013±6.0 pp311IVR
Forum Research November 11, 2014 PDF 621216010±5.6 pp360IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 7813351±0.0 pp40,013Election

British Columbia

Burnaby North—Seymour

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 10, 2015 HTML 38262790±3.65 pp716IVR
Insights West October 10, 2015 HTML 33362191±4.9 pp400Telephone
Insights West September 13, 2015 HTML 33372190±5.6 pp301Telephone
Insights West May 11, 2015 PDF 20468251±5.6 pp301Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 44351641±0.0 pp43,290Election

Cariboo—Prince George

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 11, 2015 PDF 30362950±4.4 pp500IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 5630562±0.0 pp43,239Election

Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 11, 2015 PDF 31342960±4.4 pp504IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 5631841±0.0 pp40,286Election

Courtenay—Alberni

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Insights West October 10, 2015 HTML 323418151±4.9 pp400Telephone
Mainstreet Research October 8, 2015 PDF 303320160±3.76 pp672IVR
Insights West September 13, 2015 HTML 333913123±5.6 pp301Telephone
Insights West May 11, 2015 PDF 304214113±5.6 pp301Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 4541771±0.0 pp54,470Election

Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Insights West October 5, 2015 HTML 283514194±4.9 pp400Telephone
Insights West May 11, 2015 PDF 284115105±5.6 pp302Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 4344670±0.0 pp47,766Election

Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Insights West October 10, 2015 HTML 193920211±5.6 pp300Telephone
Insights West September 13, 2015 HTML 203919193±5.6 pp300Telephone
Insights West May 11, 2015 PDF 175014164±5.6 pp301Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 373910130±0.0 pp56,652Election

Fleetwood—Port Kells

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 10, 2015 HTML 35243560±3.8 pp661IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 48331630±0.0 pp34,582Election

Kootenay—Columbia

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 19, 2015 HTML 373715110±4.3 pp529IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 5039361±0.0 pp52,801Election

Nanaimo—Ladysmith

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Insights West October 5, 2015 HTML 263518211±4.9 pp400Telephone
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 243417240±3.7 pp699IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 4045770±0.0 pp55,879Election

North Island—Powell River

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 19, 2015 HTML 274118140±4.2 pp556IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 4641651±0.0 pp50,897Election

North Okanagan—Shuswap

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 11, 2015 PDF 33372280±3.6 pp755IVR
Mainstreet Research October 10, 2015 PDF [ permanent dead link ]45262450±4.1 pp567IVR
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 6, 2015 PDF 38411290±5.5 pp312Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 55267110±0.0 pp56,921Election

North Vancouver

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Insights West October 10, 2015 HTML 331141150±4.9 pp400Telephone
Insights West September 13, 2015 HTML 311441131±5.6 pp297Telephone
Insights West July 7, 2015 PDF 302431141±5.6 pp305Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 48173051±0.0 pp50,306Election

Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 35411960±4.2 pp543IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 5535650±0.0 pp38,418Election

Port Moody—Coquitlam

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 34411970±4.3 pp529IVR
Environics August 18, 2015 PDF 27541450±4.3 pp511IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 4640940±0.0 pp43,458Election

South Okanagan—West Kootenay

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Insights West October 10, 2015 HTML 31362383±5.6 pp301Telephone
Insights West September 13, 2015 HTML 33421843±5.6 pp303Telephone
Insights West July 7, 2015 PDF 25551162±5.6 pp302Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 3945781±0.0 pp56,652Election

Vancouver Granville

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 11, 2015 PDF 28333540±4.4 pp505IVR
Mainstreet Research October 8, 2015 PDF 20284490±3.8 pp665IVR
Environics September 21, 2015 HTML 29363060±4.2 pp541IVR
Environics August 18, 2015 PDF 303624100±4.5 pp482IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 35243091±0.0 pp43,654Election

Vancouver South

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Insights West October 10, 2015 HTML 33193881±5.6 pp301Telephone
Insights West September 13, 2015 HTML 27224083±5.6 pp303Telephone
Insights West July 7, 2015 PDF 24303943±5.6 pp301Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 42213421±0.0 pp36,706Election

West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 10, 2015 HTML 321537160±3.76 pp673IVR
Insights West October 10, 2015 HTML 311442130±4.9 pp403Telephone
Insights West September 13, 2015 HTML 302234112±5.6 pp302Telephone
Environics August 16, 2015 PDF 232730190±4.1 pp582IVR
Insights West July 7, 2015 PDF 302631121±5.6 pp301Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 46212481±0.0 pp52,062Election

Manitoba

Elmwood—Transcona

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 39372040±4.2 pp552IVR
Environics August 16, 2015 PDF 30392560±4.3 pp517IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 4745530±0.0 pp34,287Election

Saint Boniface—Saint Vital

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 21, 2015 HTML 33253750±3.83 pp651IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 50163130±0.0 pp40,418Election

Winnipeg South Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 31233880±4.0 pp597IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 41183731±0.0 pp46,619Election

New Brunswick

Fredericton

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 4, 2015 HTML 321443120±3.4 pp839IVR
Environics September 19, 2015 PDF 322037100±4.1 pp580IVR
Environics August 16, 2015 PDF 292634120±3.5 pp799IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 47242441±0.0 pp38,772Election

Saint John—Rothesay

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 8, 2015 PDF 36263440±4.33 pp510IVR
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 38253340±3.7 pp623IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 50311631±0.0 pp35,964Election

Newfoundland and Labrador

Avalon

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 17, 2015 HTML 141943419±3.74 pp679IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 37293311±0.0 pp35,623Election

Nova Scotia

Central Nova

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 23205070±4.1 pp573IVR
Mainstreet Research September 17, 2015 HTML 36263080±3.82 pp652IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 55271440±0.0 pp38,878Election

Cumberland—Colchester

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 3275460±3.9 pp617IVR
Mainstreet Research September 17, 2015 HTML 33124870±3.79 pp660IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 53221851±0.0 pp38,878Election

Ontario

Ajax

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 14, 2015 HTML 39203740±3.7 pp690IVR
Forum Research September 11, 2015 PDF 35174620±4.0 pp425IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 44153830±0.0 pp44,166Election

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 8, 2015 HTML 30452050±5.6 pp300Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 33501430±0.0 pp39,174Election

Brampton Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 8, 2015 PDF 40144150±3.8 pp653IVR
Forum Research October 2, 2015 PDF 39253240±5.0 pp456IVR
Mainstreet Research January 28, 2014 PDF 40243060±3.99 pp598IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 46232541±0.0 pp34,796Election

Brampton East

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 29, 2015 HTML 35243650±3.73pp684IVR
Mainstreet Research January 28, 2014 PDF 23383630±3.98 pp600IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 29383121±0.0 pp28,625Election

Brampton North

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 8, 2015 PDF 37164610±3.7 pp689IVR
Forum Research October 4, 2015 PDF 39243420±5.0 pp336IVR
Mainstreet Research January 28, 2014 PDF 42203350±3.99 pp600IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 49192840±0.0 pp39,812Election

Brampton South

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research January 28, 2014 PDF 40183930±3.99 pp599IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 45163521±0.0 pp35,560Election

Brampton West

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research January 28, 2014 PDF 40193820±3.99 pp600IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 42203621±0.0 pp28,505Election

Brantford—Brant

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 39302560±3.9 pp622IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 48291931±0.0 pp55,085Election

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 11, 2015 PDF 41164040±3.2 pp966IVR
Environics September 21, 2015 HTML 43202990±3.1 pp1,022IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 561816101±0.0 pp51,054Election

Cambridge

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 43173460±4.2 pp552IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 53281541±0.0 pp44,827Election

Chatham-Kent—Leamington

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 29, 2015 HTML 45232740±3.88pp625IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 53271630±0.0 pp46,376Election

Don Valley West

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 29, 2015 HTML 35134740±3.72pp688IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 44114140±0.0 pp38,984Election

Eglinton—Lawrence

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 4, 2015 HTML 39144430±3.4 pp823IVR
Forum Research September 21, 2015 PDF 38174420±4.0 pp634IVR
Environics September 19, 2015 HTML 35243740±4.1 pp565IVR
Environics August 16, 2015 PDF 36253540±4.0 pp588IVR
Forum Research August 5, 2015 HTML 41203451±4.0 pp709IVR
Forum Research February 13, 2015 HTML 49132870±4.0 pp659IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 47123830±0.0 pp48,389Election

Essex

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 4, 2015 HTML 38372240±3.8 pp655IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 48351420±0.0 pp50,219Election

Etobicoke Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Forum Research September 11, 2015 PDF 42114331±3 pp885IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 42154130±0.0 pp49,685Election

Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 4, 2015 HTML 36164340±3.8 pp665IVR
Environics September 19, 2015 HTML 38194030±4.2 pp537IVR
Forum Research September 17, 2015 PDF 33224140±3 pp835IVR
Environics August 16, 2015 PDF 31283650±4.2 pp544IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 40203540±0.0 pp50,920Election

Flamborough—Glanbrook

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 8, 2015 PDF 48142890±3.80 pp659IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 55231741±0.0 pp45,387Election

Guelph

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 251845120±4.0 pp601IVR
Environics July 13, 2015 HTML 28382770±4.0 pp597IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 33174361±0.0 pp59,218Election

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 8, 2015 PDF 27165070±3.76 pp672IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 42282541±0.0 pp53,119Election

Kanata—Carleton

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 11, 2015 PDF 3985030±3.4 pp861IVR
Mainstreet Research October 4, 2015 HTML 4584340±3.89 pp630IVR
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 44133750±4.1 pp562IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 54152650±0.0 pp50,802Election

Kenora

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 5, 2015 HTML 40292840±3.8 pp647IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 47282231±0.0 pp24,586Election

Kingston and the Islands

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics July 13, 2015 HTML 23373650±4.0 pp563IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 34224040±0.0 pp56,663Election

Kitchener Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 11, 2015 PDF 28224640±3.4 pp856IVR
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 31303370±3.8 pp672IVR
Environics August 16, 2015 PDF 29333170±3.9 pp625IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 40223251±0.0 pp46,998Election

London North Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 4, 2015 HTML 32154850±3.8 pp668IVR
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 35253550±4.2 pp540IVR
Environics August 16, 2015 PDF 32273460±3.7 pp700IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 37243440±0.0 pp53,445Election

London West

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 8, 2015 PDF 33194260±3.75 pp678IVR
Environics October 4, 2015 HTML 38203750±2.9 pp1,132IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 45252730±0.0 pp58,342Election

Markham—Stouffville

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Forum Research October 3, 2015 PDF 4065120±5.0 pp439IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 50172931±0.0 pp47,183Election

Mississauga Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Forum Research October 4, 2015 PDF 35164450±5.0 pp308IVR
Mainstreet Research January 28, 2014 PDF 36204130±3.99 pp600IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 42193720±0.0 pp42,677Election

Mississauga East—Cooksville

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research January 28, 2014 PDF 37194130±3.99 pp601IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 44183620±0.0 pp44,249Election

Mississauga—Erin Mills

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research January 28, 2014 PDF 41163940±3.99 pp600IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 47163430±0.0 pp46,468Election

Mississauga—Lakeshore

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Forum Research October 4, 2015 PDF 41124430±4.0 pp538IVR
Mainstreet Research January 28, 2014 PDF 32244230±3.99 pp600IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 47133700±0.0 pp51,746Election

Mississauga—Malton

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Forum Research October 2, 2015 PDF 29204452±5.0 pp335IVR
Mainstreet Research January 28, 2014 PDF 41144140±3.99 pp600IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 38233720±0.0 pp36,632Election

Mississauga—Streetsville

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research January 28, 2014 PDF 40164050±3.99 pp599IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 46153540±0.0 pp46,236Election

Nepean

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 11, 2015 PDF 40104740±3.2 pp1,032IVR
Mainstreet Research October 4, 2015 HTML 41134240±3.81 pp655IVR
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 40193480±4.1 pp569IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 51182740±0.0 pp51,130Election

Niagara Falls

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 42272560±4.2 pp557IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 53231940±0.0 pp53,980Election

Nickel Belt

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 8, 2015 HTML 14463550±5.6 pp300Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 28551430±0.0 pp44,148Election

Nipissing—Timiskaming

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 8, 2015 HTML 31164760±5.6 pp300Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 36213760±0.0 pp39,174Election

Oakville North—Burlington

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Forum Research May 12, 2014 PDF 4284532±4.0 pp530IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 54162730±0.0 pp46,840Election

Orléans

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 29, 2015 HTML 33194080±3.8pp660IVR
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 36115130±4.1 pp567IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 45143830±0.0 pp64,007Election

Ottawa Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 4, 2015 HTML 22423060±3.79 pp685IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 22522051±0.0 pp64,689Election

Ottawa West—Nepean

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 4, 2015 HTML 29204740±3.72 pp661IVR
Forum Research September 25, 2015 PDF 35154604±3.0pp1,083IVR
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 35203950±3.6 pp747IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 45203140±0.0 pp56,602Election

Perth Wellington

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 8, 2015 HTML Archived 2015-10-17 at the Wayback Machine 36213580±3.8 pp652IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 54211852±0.0 pp46,401Election

Peterborough—Kawartha

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics October 11, 2015 PDF 34174630±3.4 pp859IVR
Forum Research September 24, 2015 PDF 34243741±3.0 pp1294IVR
Nanos Research August 26, 2015 HTML Archived 2015-10-08 at the Wayback Machine 29274140±5.7 pp300Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 50252140±0.0 pp57,384Election

Sault Ste. Marie

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 7, 2015 HTML 36233560±5.6 pp300Telephone
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 31303460±3.9 pp632IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 40372020±0.0 pp40,390Election

Scarborough Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Forum Research October 3, 2015 PDF 36194320±5.0 pp458IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 35303230±0.0 pp36,811Election

Scarborough Southwest

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 29, 2015 HTML 21374030±3.83pp654IVR
Forum Research September 22, 2015 PDF 27323551±4.0 pp608IVR
Forum Research April 26, 2015 HTML 20344231±4.0 pp587IVR
Forum Research February 13, 2015 PDF 27293941±4.0 pp557IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 32352940±0.0 pp39,379Election

Spadina—Fort York

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Forum Research October 1, 2015 HTML 17423750±5.0 pp461IVR
Mainstreet Research September 14, 2015 HTML 13453930±3.72 pp671IVR
Forum Research August 6, 2015 PDF 10572841±5.0 pp345IVR
Mainstreet Research June 30, 2015 HTML 14443660±3.87 pp606IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 21502441±0.0 pp36,969Election

Sudbury

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 10, 2015 HTML 27383140±4.9 pp400Telephone
Mainstreet Research December 21, 2014 HTML 22294630±3.98 pp602IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 28501831±0.0 pp45,441Election

Timmins-James Bay

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Oraclepoll ResearchOctober 8, 2015 HTML 11622150±5.6 pp300Telephone
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 32501620±0.0 pp33,706Election

Toronto Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Forum Research October 1, 2015 HTML 17374240±4.0 pp597IVR
Forum Research August 28, 2015 PDF 14414041±4.0 pp488IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 17364051±0.0 pp37,350Election

University—Rosedale

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Forum Research September 30, 2015 HTML 20393830±4.0 pp604IVR
Mainstreet Research September 29, 2015 HTML 15433930±3.84pp644IVR
Forum Research August 25, 2015 PDF 17463250±4.0 pp528IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 20443151±0.0 pp46,665Election

Waterloo

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 31263930±3.8 pp658IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 41153850±0.0 pp53,632Election

Willowdale

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 36154550±4.2 pp535IVR
Environics August 17, 2015 PDF 32263750±4.3 pp508IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 41193900±0.0 pp38,984Election

Windsor West

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research July 8, 2015 HTML 21393730±3.97pp581IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 32541130±0.0 pp39,745Election

York Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Forum Research October 4, 2015 PDF 40173932±5.0 pp387IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 49163320±0.0 pp35,546Election

Quebec

Ahuntsic-Cartierville

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 21, 2015 HTML 1337341330±3.7 pp698IVR
Mainstreet Research December 7, 2013 PDF 613453140±3.8 pp661IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 930312811±0.0 pp48,602Election

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Segma ResearchOctober 12, 2015 HTML 19.733.122.322.12.8
Segma ResearchSeptember 19, 2015 HTML Archived 2015-10-11 at the Wayback Machine 17.041.218.917.85.1
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 25.637.75.828.91.50.7±0.0 pp43,094Election

Jonquière

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Segma ResearchOctober 12, 2015 HTML 20.333.023.819.22.90.8
Segma ResearchSeptember 19, 2015 HTML 20.137.118.020.04.8
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 344331910±0.0 pp46,657Election

Lac-Saint-Jean

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Segma ResearchOctober 12, 2015 HTML 34.629.615.817.22.90
Segma ResearchSeptember 19, 2015 HTML Archived 2015-10-11 at the Wayback Machine 34.729.410.620.64.70
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 423232110±0.0 pp54,920Election

Laurier—Sainte-Marie

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
CROP August 29, 2015 HTML 257152042±5.0 pp377Telephone
Mainstreet Research December 7, 2013 PDF 632263610±3.82 pp653IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 446113531±0.0 pp51,102Election

Montarville

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Solutions LogikSeptember 25, 2015 HTML 928144630
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 1045132922±0.0 pp52,165Election

Mount Royal

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 21, 2015 HTML 271650720±3.76 pp672IVR
Mainstreet Research December 7, 2013 PDF 161556760±3.93 pp618IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 361841320±0.0 pp39,007Election

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 4, 2015 HTML 1033407100665IVR
Mainstreet Research December 7, 2013 PDF 1322521030±3.9 pp626IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 183538441±0.0 pp44,642Election

Papineau

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 17, 2015 HTML 1136411200±3.49 pp783IVR
CROP September 14, 2015 HTML 546351040±5.06 pp375Telephone
Mainstreet Research December 7, 2013 PDF 514612000±4.13 pp560IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 529382521±0.0 pp45,887Election

Pontiac

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 4, 2015 HTML 193634830±3.74 pp673IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 2647151020±0.0 pp35,508Election

Richmond—Arthabaska

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 21, 2015 HTML 463571020±3.77 pp668IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 253273420±0.0 pp53,303Election

Saskatchewan

Regina—Lewvan

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 21, 2015 HTML 40342150±3.85 pp639IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 4445830±0.0 pp38,508Election

Saskatoon—University

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 20, 2015 HTML 37372240±3.4 pp853IVR
Environics August 16, 2015 PDF 34412240±3.7 pp691IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 49381031±0.0 pp35,122Election

Saskatoon West

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 21, 2015 HTML 31362590±3.83 pp658IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 4351430±0.0 pp30,459Election

Yukon

Yukon

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Environics September 21, 2015 HTML 27293940±4.4 pp497IVR
2011 Election May 2, 2011 HTML 341433190±0.0 pp16,057Election

See also

Notes

Notes

1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error. [1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size. [2]
2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.
4 Election Results shown for 2011 are the redistributed results for the 2015 districts. These are fixed until 2023 under the present federal electoral system. About 80% of the 308 districts defined in 2003 changed their borders or are entirely new: 338 districts were defined in 2015.

Related Research Articles

An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster.

A straw poll, straw vote, or straw ballot is an ad hoc or unofficial vote. It is used to show the popular opinion on a certain matter, and can be used to help politicians know the majority opinion and help them decide what to say in order to gain votes.

An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take many hours to count.

A push poll is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political campaigning, in which a person or organization attempts to manipulate or alter prospective voters' views under the guise of conducting an opinion poll. Large numbers of voters are contacted with little effort made to collect and analyze their response data. Instead, the push poll is a form of telemarketing-based propaganda and rumor-mongering masquerading as an opinion poll. Push polls may rely on innuendo, or information gleaned from opposition research on the political opponent of the interests behind the poll.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2007 Ontario general election</span> Canadian provincial election, 2007

The 2007 Ontario general election was held on October 10, 2007, to elect members (MPPs) of the 39th Legislative Assembly of the Province of Ontario, Canada. The Liberals under Premier Dalton McGuinty won the election with a majority government, winning 71 out of a possible 107 seats with 42.2% of the popular vote. The election saw the third-lowest voter turnout in Ontario provincial elections, setting a then record for the lowest voter turnout with 52.8% of people who were eligible voted. This broke the previous record of 54.7% in the 1923 election, but would end up being surpassed in the 2011 and 2022 elections.

<i>The Literary Digest</i> American general interest magazine

The Literary Digest was an American general interest weekly magazine published by Funk & Wagnalls. Founded by Isaac Kaufmann Funk in 1890, it eventually merged with two similar weekly magazines, Public Opinion and Current Opinion.

An open-access poll is a type of opinion poll in which a nonprobability sample of participants self-select into participation. The term includes call-in, mail-in, and some online polls.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Gallup, Inc.</span> American analytics and advisory company

Gallup, Inc. is an American multinational analytics and advisory company based in Washington, D.C. Founded by George Gallup in 1935, the company became known for its public opinion polls conducted worldwide. Gallup provides analytics and management consulting to organizations globally. In addition the company offers educational consulting, the CliftonStrengths assessment and associated products, and business and management books published by its Gallup Press unit.

Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, at national and state levels, of elections, politics, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the United States president's job approval ratings. Surveys by the company are conducted using a combination of automated public opinion polling involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries and an online survey. The company generates revenue by selling advertising and subscriptions to its polling survey data.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bradley effect</span> Theory about discrepancies between opinion polls and election results in the United States

The Bradley effect is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election to California attorney general George Deukmejian, a white person, despite Bradley being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election</span>

In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

This article provides a list of federal opinion polls that were conducted between the 2007 election and 2010 election.

This page lists the public opinion polls that were conducted in relation to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, that was held on 18 September 2014. Overall, polls showed that support for a "No" vote was dominant until the end of August 2014, when support for a "Yes" vote gained momentum and the gap closed significantly, with at least one poll placing the "Yes" vote ahead. In the final week of the campaign, polls showed the "No" vote to be consistently but somewhat narrowly ahead. There were no exit polls although a YouGov post-election poll was published shortly after the polls closed. For the history of the campaign itself see 2014 Scottish independence referendum, Yes Scotland, and Better Together (campaign).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum</span>

The referendum on EU membership took place on 23 June 2016. Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum was ongoing in the months between the announcement of a referendum and the referendum polling day. Polls on the general principle of the UK's membership of the European Union were carried out for a number of years prior to the referendum. Opinion polls of voters in general tended to show roughly equal proportions in favour of remaining and leaving. Polls of business leaders, scientists, and lawyers showed majorities in favour of remaining. Among non-British citizens in other EU member states, polling suggested that a majority were in favour of the UK remaining in the EU in principle, but that a similarly sized majority believed that if the UK were only able to remain in the EU on renegotiated terms then it should leave.

Various polling organisations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2011 Canadian general election. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns well over 240 polls carried out since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Polling conducted before the referendum can be found here. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Various polling organizations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2019 Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Various polling organizations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2021 Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

In the run up to the 2024 Pakistani general election, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, first led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf until 10 April 2022 and then by Shehbaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N), with the latter government being supported by the Pakistan Democratic Movement and the Pakistan People's Party. The results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.

Various polling organizations have conducted opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 45th Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

References

  1. "MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists"". Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. September 16, 2011. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  2. American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research Archived 2014-11-30 at the Wayback Machine , retrieved October 17, 2012