A peaceful transition or transfer of power is a concept important to democratic governments in which the leadership of a government peacefully hands over control of government to a newly-elected leadership. This may be after elections or during the transition from a different kind of political regime, such as the post-communist period after the fall of the Soviet Union. [1]
In scholarship examining democratization and emerging democracies, study of the successful transitions of power is used to understand the transition to constitutional democracy and the relative stability of that government. [2] [3] [4] [5] A 2014 study concluded that 68 countries had never had a peaceful transition of power due to an election since 1788. [6] [1]
In scholarship examining democratization and emerging democracies, study of the successful transitions of power is used to understand the transition to constitutional democracy and the relative stability of that government (democratic consolidation). [2] [3] [4] [5]
A 2014 study by Adam Przeworski of 3,000 elections from 1788 to 2008, published in the journal Comparative Political Studies concluded that 68 countries (including Russia and China) had never had a peaceful transition of power between parties following an election, making it a "rare and a recent practice." [6] [1] The same study found that once a country has an initial peaceful transfer of power (an "alternation"), it is very likely to keep doing so, making the peaceful transition of power a habit-forming activity. [6] [1] In a stable institutionalized democracy, a peaceful transition is the expected outcome of an election. [6] [1]
Peaceful transitions require a number of strong democratic institutions and norms to exist, such as the willingness of opposition parties to serve as a loyal opposition. Transitions by election put power holders in vulnerable positions, as not only do they risk potential changes in policy and practice and thus their means of power, but they also risk political retribution or retaliation. [7]
The first peaceful transition of power in a country is often treated as an important stage in a government transition towards democracy such as seen in elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. [8] Successful transitions during tense political moments such as the Velvet Revolution in Armenia in 2018 are interpreted as signs of improved governance within the country, an important milestone in democratization and functioning civil society. [9] Alternately, the lack of peaceful transfers of power, such as in elections in Georgia from 1995 to 2008 in which the only transition between presidents was via the 2003 Rose Revolution, may harm the international reputation of the country as a "democracy". [10]
Since achieving independence from European colonial powers, Africa has had a mixed record in achieving peaceful transitions of power, with variations among nations. [11]
The first peaceful transition of power between civilians in Nigeria took place in 2007, although the outgoing and incoming presidents were of the same party and the preceding election was characterized by widespread irregularities. [12] In 2018, Liberia had its first electoral transfer of power since 1944. [13] The first peaceful transition of power in the Democratic Republic of the Congo took place in 2019, with outgoing president Joseph Kabila yielding power to opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi. [14] The first transition of power from one democratically elected leader to another in Niger took place in 2021, briefly overcoming the nation's history of coups d'etat [15] before another military coup occurred in 2023. [16]
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The symbol of peaceful transition of power is when the outgoing president and/or vice president, after their respective successors recite the oath of office, switch chairs, so that the incumbent president is on the furthest left side of the altar at the People's Consultative Assembly main session's room, and the sitting vice president is immediately on the right side of the speaker and deputies speaker's desk. As of 2022 [update] , starting in 1978, the vice presidents always did this symbolic transfer when there was no vacancy in the office except in 2004, when Hamzah Haz did not attend the ceremony, and in 2009, when Jusuf Kalla was already seated on the furthest right side so no switch was needed. For presidents, as of 2022 [update] , this symbol of peaceful transition happened only twice, in 1999 during the inauguration of Abdurrahman Wahid, and in 2014 for the first inauguration of Joko Widodo.
During the 2020 Belarusian protests that followed the disputed results of the Belarusian presidential election in August 2020, Belarusians created a Coordination Council and a shadow government, the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM), aiming for a peaceful transfer of power to a freely and fairly elected president. [17] [18] [19] NAM proposed a "constitutional" option for power transfer, in which the presumed presidential election winner, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, would become Prime Minister and the powers of the de facto president Alexander Lukashenko would be legally transferred to the Prime Minister's position, followed by elections for a new president organised by a newly created electoral commission; and a "legal sovereignty" option, in which Tsikhanouskaya would become President and organise presidential elections within 40–70 days. [20]
The transfer of power resulting from the 2012 Georgian parliamentary election was considered an important case of peaceful transfer of power in the post-Soviet political development of Georgia, which, since the Soviet period, had earlier gone through changes such as the Rose Revolution in 2003. [10]
A peaceful transition of power has historically been the norm in United States presidential transitions. The transition from John Adams to Thomas Jefferson in 1801 was considered an important milestone for the United States fledgling democracy. From then until 2020, the losing party in every presidential election "willingly and peacefully" relinquished power to the opposition. [21] [22] The transition is institutionalized through symbolic acts like the presidential inaugurations. [23] [24] Outgoing U.S. presidents traditionally attend the inaugurations of their successors, a symbol of the peaceful passage of power from one administration to the next. [25]
During the 2020 presidential elections, experts described a risk of democratic backsliding in the U.S., [26] [27] as President Donald Trump publicly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he lost his election bid. [28] In September 2020, after Trump's statements, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed a resolution committing to a peaceful transition of power and opposing any attempt "by the President or any person in power to overturn the will of the people of the United States"; many senators cited the peaceful transition of power's centrality to U.S. democracy. [29] Business leaders also made statements calling for a peaceful transfer. [30]
Trump was defeated in the 2020 election by Joe Biden in both the popular vote and the electoral vote, but refused to accept defeat. Trump falsely claimed election fraud, initiated a seven-part plan to overturn the election, and engaged in an aggressive and unprecedented [31] campaign to remain in power. [32] [33] Trump's fellow Republicans had varied reactions to Trump's false election-fraud claims. [34] [35] [36] [37] Trump stated on 15 October 2020 that he would accept a peaceful transfer (after a long period of ambiguous answers to the question) while still falsely alleging fraud and waging a legal battle to attempt to overturn the election results. [38]
On January 6, 2021, a pro-Trump mob, inflamed by false claims, attacked the Capitol in Washington, D.C., in a failed attempt to keep Trump in power. The mob disrupted the counting of the electoral votes by a joint session of Congress for several hours. [39] [40] [41] Five people died either shortly before, during, or following the attack. [42] Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell noted that "if this election were overturned by mere allegations from the losing side, our democracy would enter a death spiral." [43] On 7 January 2021, Trump condemned the riots and committed to the peaceful transition of power, [44] although since leaving office he has continued to routinely repeat election lies and defend the riots. [45]
In Venezuela, the Puntofijo Pact allowed a political agreement to respect the election results, [46] allowing for a peaceful transition of power after the ouster of dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez and during the country's democratic period. [47]
Politics of Ghana takes place in a framework of a presidential representative democratic republic, whereby the president of Ghana is both head of state and head of government, and of a two party system. The seat of government is at Golden Jubilee House. Executive power is exercised by the government. Legislative power is vested in both the government and Parliament. The judiciary is independent of the executive and the legislature.
The Republican Party of New Mexico is the affiliate of the United States Republican Party in New Mexico. It is headquartered in Albuquerque and led by chairperson Steve Pearce, vice chair Frank Trambley, secretary Mari Trujillo Spinelli, and treasurer David Chavez.
In the United States, a presidential transition is the process during which the president-elect of the United States prepares to take over the administration of the federal government of the United States from the incumbent president. Though planning for transition by a non-incumbent candidate can start at any time before a presidential election and in the days following, the transition formally starts when the General Services Administration (GSA) declares an “apparent winner” of the election, thereby releasing the funds appropriated by Congress for the transition, and continues until inauguration day, when the president-elect takes the oath of office, at which point the powers, immunities, and responsibilities of the presidency are legally transferred to the new president.
The 2020 United States presidential election was the 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. The Democratic ticket of former vice president Joe Biden and the junior U.S. senator from California Kamala Harris defeated the incumbent Republican president, Donald Trump, and vice president, Mike Pence. The election took place against the backdrop of the global COVID-19 pandemic and related recession. The election saw the highest voter turnout by percentage since 1900, with each of the two main tickets receiving more than 74 million votes, surpassing Barack Obama's record of 69.5 million votes from 2008. Biden received more than 81 million votes, the most votes ever cast for a candidate in a U.S. presidential election.
The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. Incumbent President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election. His predecessor Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for re-election for a second, non-consecutive term, after losing to him in 2020. The election notably comes after Trump's prior attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election and the January 6 United States Capitol attack. This will mark the first presidential election rematch since 1956. If Trump wins, he would become the second president to be elected to a non-consecutive second term, after Grover Cleveland in 1892.
The 2020 United States presidential debates between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the major candidates in the 2020 United States presidential election, were sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates. There were three initially planned scheduled debates. The first debate took place on September 29, 2020. The next debate was scheduled to take place on October 15 but was later canceled due to Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis and refusal to appear remotely rather than in person. As a result, 2020 had the fewest debates since 1996. The final debate took place on October 22. Additionally, a debate between the vice presidential candidates Mike Pence and Kamala Harris took place on October 7.
The inauguration of Joe Biden as the 46th president of the United States took place on Wednesday, January 20, 2021, marking the start of the four-year term of Joe Biden as president and Kamala Harris as vice president. The 59th presidential inauguration took place on the West Front of the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C. Biden took the presidential oath of office, before which Harris took the vice presidential oath of office.
Transition Integrity Project (TIP) was a series of political scenario exercises in the United States at the beginning of June 2020, involving over 100 current and former senior government and campaign leaders, academics, journalists, polling experts and former federal and state government officials. The exercises examined potential disruptions to the 2020 presidential election and transition. TIP is not an organization, but rather a short-term project run under the auspices of the organization Protect Democracy.
The presidential transition of Joe Biden began on November 7, 2020, and ended on January 20, 2021. Unlike previous presidential transitions, which normally take place during the roughly 10-week period between the election in the first week of November and the inauguration on January 20, Biden's presidential transition was shortened somewhat because the General Services Administration under the outgoing Trump administration did not recognize Biden as the "apparent winner" until November 23.
Protests began in multiple cities in the United States following the 2020 United States presidential election between then-President Donald Trump and Democratic Party challenger Vice President Joe Biden, held on November 3, 2020. Biden won the election, receiving 81.3 million votes (51.3%) to Trump's 74.2 million (46.9%) and winning the Electoral College by 306 to 232. Biden's victory became clear on November 7, after the ballots had been tabulated. The Electoral College voted on December 14, in accordance with law, formalizing Biden's victory.
Members of the United States Republican Party have reacted differently to Republican president Donald Trump's false claims about the 2020 United States presidential election, with many publicly supporting them, many remaining silent, and a few publicly denouncing them. Trump falsely claimed to have won the election, and made many false and unsubstantiated claims of election fraud. By December 11, 2020, 126 out of 196 Republican members of the House backed a lawsuit filed in the United States Supreme Court supported by nineteen Republican state attorneys general seeking to subvert the election and overturn the election results. The Trump campaign hired the Berkeley Research Group to investigate whether there had been voter fraud. The researchers found nothing, and the consultancy reported this to Trump and his chief of staff Mark Meadows on a conference call in the final days of the year, before the attack on the Capitol.
After Democratic nominee Joe Biden won the 2020 United States presidential election, Republican nominee and then-incumbent president Donald Trump pursued an unprecedented effort to overturn the election, with support and assistance from his campaign, proxies, political allies, and many of his supporters. These efforts culminated in the January 6 United States Capitol attack by Trump supporters, which was widely described as an attempted coup d'état. One week later, Trump was impeached for incitement of insurrection but was acquitted by the Senate by a vote of 57–43, 10 votes short of the 67 votes required to convict him.
On January 2, 2021, during an hour-long conference call, then-U.S. President Donald Trump pressured Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to change the state's election results from the 2020 presidential election. Trump had been defeated by Joe Biden in the election, but refused to accept the outcome, and made a months-long effort to overturn the results. Prior to the call to Raffensperger, Trump and his campaign spoke repeatedly to state and local officials in at least three states in which he had lost, urging them to recount votes, throw out some ballots, or replace the Democratic slate of electors with a Republican slate. Trump's call with Raffensperger was reported by The Washington Post and other media outlets the day after it took place.
More than seventy countries and international organizations expressed their concerns over the January 6 United States Capitol attack and condemned the violence, with some specifically condemning President Donald Trump's own role in inciting the attack. Foreign leaders, diplomats, politicians, and institutions expressed shock, outrage, and condemnation of the events. Multiple world leaders made a call for peace, describing the assault as "an attack on democracy". The leaders of some countries, including Brazil, Poland, and Hungary, declined to condemn the situation, and described it as an internal U.S. affair.
In the aftermath of the January 6 United States Capitol attack, after drawing widespread condemnation from the U.S. Congress, members of his administration, and the media, 45th U.S. President Donald Trump released a video-taped statement on January 7 to stop the resignations of his staff and the threats of impeachment or removal from office. In the statement, he condemned the violence at the U.S. Capitol, saying that "a new administration will be inaugurated", which was widely seen as a concession, and his "focus now turns to ensuring a smooth, orderly, and seamless transition of power" to the Joe Biden administration. Vanity Fair reported that Trump was at least partially convinced to make the statement by U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who told Trump a sufficient number of Senate Republicans would support removing him from office unless he conceded. Kayleigh McEnany, the White House Press Secretary, had attempted to distance the administration from the rioters' behavior in a televised statement earlier in the day. On January 9, The New York Times reported that Trump had told White House aides he regretted committing to an orderly transition of power and would never resign from office. In a March 25 interview on Fox News, Trump defended the Capitol attackers, saying they were patriots who posed "zero threat", and he criticized law enforcement for "persecuting" the rioters.
Supporters of Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, held small-scale armed protests and demonstrations at U.S. state capitols in the five days leading up to the inauguration of Joe Biden on January 20, 2021, in opposition to the results of the 2020 United States presidential election, which continued after the failure of the violent January 6 attempt to overturn the election in Trump's favor. Pro-Trump groups failed to stage organized dissent or affect the transition of power in an environment of deterrence and heightened security.
The Eastman memos, also known as the "coup memo", are documents by John Eastman, an American law professor retained by then-President Donald Trump advancing the fringe legal theory that a U.S. Vice President has unilateral authority to reject certified State electors. This would have the effect of nullifying an election in order to produce an outcome personally desired by the Vice President, such as a result in the Vice President's own party's favor, including retaining himself as Vice President, or if the Vice President is himself the presidential candidate, then to unilaterally make himself president.
Democratic backsliding, also known as autocratization, is the decline in democratic qualities of a political regime, the opposite of democratization.
Democratic backsliding in the United States has been identified as a trend at the state and national levels in various indices and analyses. Democratic backsliding is "a process of regime change towards autocracy that makes the exercise of political power more arbitrary and repressive and that restricts the space for public contestation and political participation in the process of government selection".
Trump's efforts to cling to power are unprecedented in American history. While political parties have fought over the results of presidential elections before, no incumbent president has ever made such expansive and individualized pleas to the officials who oversee certification of the election results.
President Trump's attempts to overturn the 2020 election are unprecedented in American history and an even more audacious use of brute political force to gain the White House than when Congress gave Rutherford B. Hayes the presidency during Reconstruction.
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