Sovereign credit risk

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Sovereign credit risk is the risk of a government of a sovereign state becoming unwilling or unable to meet its loan or bond obligations leading to a sovereign default. Credit rating agencies will take into account the capital, interest, extraneous and procedural defaults, and failures to abide by the terms of bonds or other debt instruments when setting a countries credit rating.

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A sovereign cannot be forced to pay its debts even when in a sovereign debt crisis but it may be able to use inflation and money printing to reduce its debts. The lender may also use its own government to pressure the sovereign through diplomatic and even military means. The United States government for example has the Foreign Claims Settlement Commission to help lenders recover debts from sovereigns. The risks for the lender are therefore different to loans to individuals or corporates. This risk can be mitigated by creditors and stakeholders taking extra precaution when making investments or financial transactions with foreign countries. [1]

Factors

Five key factors that affect the probability of sovereign debt leading to sovereign risk are: [2] debt service ratio, import ratio, investment ratio, variance of export revenue, and domestic money supply growth. The probability of loss increases with increases in debt service ratio, import ratio, variance of export revenue and/or domestic money supply growth. Frenkel, Karmann, Raahish and Scholtens also argue that the likelihood of rescheduling decreases as investment ratio increases, due to resultant economic productivity gains.

However, Saunders argues that debt rescheduling can become more likely if the investment ratio rises as the foreign country could become less dependent on its external creditors and so be less concerned about receiving credit from these countries/investors. [3]

Sovereign debt crisises

An example of states being unwilling or unable to meet its debt obligations was Cyprus in 2013. Many countries faced sovereign risk in the Great Recession of the late-2000s.

See also

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In finance, default is failure to meet the legal obligations of a loan, for example when a home buyer fails to make a mortgage payment, or when a corporation or government fails to pay a bond which has reached maturity. A national or sovereign default is the failure or refusal of a government to repay its national debt.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Debt</span> Obligation to pay borrowed money

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In finance, a credit derivative refers to any one of "various instruments and techniques designed to separate and then transfer the credit risk" or the risk of an event of default of a corporate or sovereign borrower, transferring it to an entity other than the lender or debtholder.

Credit risk is the possibility of losing a lender holds due to a risk of default on a debt that may arise from a borrower failing to make required payments. In the first resort, the risk is that of the lender and includes lost principal and interest, disruption to cash flows, and increased collection costs. The loss may be complete or partial. In an efficient market, higher levels of credit risk will be associated with higher borrowing costs. Because of this, measures of borrowing costs such as yield spreads can be used to infer credit risk levels based on assessments by market participants.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Government debt</span> Total amount of debt owed to lenders by a government/state

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Distressed securities are securities over companies or government entities that are experiencing financial or operational distress, default, or are under bankruptcy. As far as debt securities, this is called distressed debt. Purchasing or holding such distressed-debt creates significant risk due to the possibility that bankruptcy may render such securities worthless.

A credit history is a record of a borrower's responsible repayment of debts. A credit report is a record of the borrower's credit history from a number of sources, including banks, credit card companies, collection agencies, and governments. A borrower's credit score is the result of a mathematical algorithm applied to a credit report and other sources of information to predict future delinquency.

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A sovereign default is the failure or refusal of the government of a sovereign state to pay back its debt in full when due. Cessation of due payments may either be accompanied by that government's formal declaration that it will not pay its debts (repudiation), or it may be unannounced. A credit rating agency will take into account in its gradings capital, interest, extraneous and procedural defaults, and failures to abide by the terms of bonds or other debt instruments.

Import ratio, in economics and government finance, is the ratio of total imports of a country to that country’s total foreign exchange (FX) reserves. The ratio can be inverted and is referred to as the reserves to imports ratio. This ratio divides a country's average foreign exchange reserve by a country's average monthly level of imports.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">European debt crisis</span> Multi-year debt crisis in multiple EU countries since late 2009

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The default traps in sovereign borrowing refers to the idea that once a country falls into a default, it is more likely to default again in the future, compared to another country with identical future output ability. The idea of default traps is related with the asymmetric information between the borrower and the lender about the expectation of borrower's future output (GDP), the negative output shocks that increase the borrower's future default probability and other possible factors like political shocks.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Debt crisis</span> Situation in which a government cannot pay back its debt

Debt crisis is a situation in which a government loses the ability of paying back its governmental debt. When the expenditures of a government are more than its tax revenues for a prolonged period, the government may enter into a debt crisis. Various forms of governments finance their expenditures primarily by raising money through taxation. When tax revenues are insufficient, the government can make up the difference by issuing debt.

Russia defaulted on part of its foreign currency denominated debt on 27 June 2022, because of funds being stuck in Euroclear. This was its first such default since 1918, back when it had issued ruble-denominated bonds). Before that, on 2 June, Russia defaulted on the 30-day interest, incorrectly not counting interest for the grace period, but a failure to pay $1.9 million was not sufficient to trigger a cross-default across other instruments, because the minimum threshold is an amount of at least $75 million, according to documents for other Russian eurobonds. The default occurred due to technicalities as the payment in dollars was impossible due to the sanctions by US and EU authorities, but did not mark an actual lack of capability to pay its debts.

References

  1. Cary L. Cooper; Derek F. Channon (1998). The Concise Blackwell Encyclopedia of Management . ISBN   978-0-631-20911-9.
  2. Frenkel, Karmann and Scholtens (2004). Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises. Springer. ISBN   978-3-540-22248-4.
  3. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Saunders, Anthony (2006). Financial Institutions Management: A Risk Management Approach, 5th Edition. McGraw Hill. ISBN   978-0-07-304667-9.