Scenarios
Libertarianism
Libertarian scenarios postulate that intelligent machines, uploaded humans, cyborgs, and unenhanced humans will coexist peacefully in a framework focused on respecting property rights. Because industrial productivity is no longer gated by scarce human labor, the value of land skyrockets compared to the price of goods; even remaining "Luddite" humans who owned or inherited land should be able to sell or lease a small piece of it to the more-productive robots in exchange for a perpetual annuity sufficient to easily indefinitely meet all of their basic financial needs. [8] Such people can live as long as they choose to, and are free to engage in almost any activity they can conceive of, for pleasure or for self-actualization, without financial concern. Advanced technologies enable entirely new modes of thought and experience, thus adding to the palette of possible feelings. People in the future may even experience never-ending "gradients of bliss". [19]
Evolution moves toward greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and greater levels of subtle attributes such as love. In every monotheistic tradition God is likewise described as all of these qualities, only without any limitation: infinite knowledge, infinite intelligence, infinite beauty, infinite creativity, infinite love, and so on. Of course, even the accelerating growth of evolution never achieves an infinite level, but as it explodes exponentially it certainly moves rapidly in that direction. So evolution moves inexorably toward this conception of God, although never quite reaching this ideal. We can regard, therefore, the freeing of our thinking from the severe limitations of its biological form to be an essentially spiritual undertaking. [19] [20]
Such decentralized scenarios may be unstable in the long run, as the greediest elements of the super intelligent classes would have both the means and the motive to usurp the property of the unenhanced classes. Even if the mechanisms for ensuring legal property rights are both unbreakable and loophole-free, there may still be an ever-present danger of humans and cyborgs being "tricked" by the cleverest of the superintelligent machines into unwittingly signing over their own property. Suffering may be widespread, as sentient beings without property may die, and no mechanism prevents a being from reproducing up until the limits of his own inheritable resources, resulting in a multitude of that being's descendants scrabbling out an existence of minimal sustenance. [8] [10] [21]
Imagine running on a treadmill at a steep incline — heart pounding, muscles aching, lungs gasping for air. A glance at the timer: your next break, which will also be your death, is due in 49 years, 3 months, 20 days, 4 hours, 56 minutes, and 12 seconds. You wish you had not been born. [9]
Communism
 | This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (March 2024) |
Ray Kurzweil posits that the goals of communism will be realized by advanced technological developments in the 21st century, where the intersection of low manufacturing costs, material abundance, and open-source design philosophies in software and in hardware will enable the realization of the maxim "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs". [22]
Benevolent dictator
In this scenario, postulate that a superintelligent artificial intelligence takes control of society, but acts in a beneficial way. Its programmers, despite being on a deadline, solved quasi-philosophical problems that had seemed to some intractable, and created an AI with the following goal: to use its superintelligence to figure out what human utopia looks like by analyzing human behavior, human brains, and human genes; and then, to implement that utopia. The AI arrives at a subtle and complex definition of human flourishing. Valuing diversity, and recognizing that different people have different preferences, the AI divides Earth into different sectors. Harming others, making weapons, evading surveillance, or trying to create a rival superintelligence are globally banned; apart from that, each sector is free to make its own laws; for example, a religious person might choose to live in the "pious sector" corresponding to his religion, where the appropriate religious rules are strictly enforced. In all sectors, disease, poverty, crime, hangovers, addiction, and all other involuntary suffering have been eliminated. Many sectors boast advanced architecture and spectacle that "make typical sci-fi visions pale in comparison". [8] Life is an "all-inclusive pleasure cruise", [8] as if it were "Christmas 365 days a year". [23]
After spending an intense week in the knowledge sector learning about the ultimate laws of physics that the AI has discovered, you might decide to cut loose in the hedonistic sector over the weekend and then relax for a few days at the beach resort in the wildlife sector. [8]
Still, many people are dissatisfied, Tegmark writes. Humans have no freedom in shaping their collective destiny. Some want the freedom to have as many children as they want. Others resent surveillance by the AI, or chafe at bans on weaponry and on creating further superintelligence machines. Others may come to regret the choices they have made, or find their lives feel hollow and superficial. [8]
Bostrom argues that an AI's code of ethics should ideally improve in certain ways on current norms of moral behavior, in the same way that we regard current morality to be superior to the morality of earlier eras of slavery. In contrast, Ernest Davis of New York University this approach is too dangerous, stating "I feel safer in the hands of a superintelligence who is guided by 2014 morality, or for that matter by 1700 morality, than in the hands of one that decides to consider the question for itself." [24]
Gatekeeper AI
In "Gatekeeper" AI scenarios, the AI can act to prevent rival superintelligences from being created, but otherwise errs on the side of allowing humans to create their own destiny. [8] Ben Goertzel of OpenCog has advocated a "Nanny AI" scenario where the AI additionally takes some responsibility for preventing humans from destroying themselves, for example by slowing down technological progress to give time for society to advance in a more thoughtful and deliberate manner. [8] [25] In a third scenario, a superintelligent "Protector" AI gives humans the illusion of control, by hiding or erasing all knowledge of its existence, but works behind the scenes to guarantee positive outcomes. In all three scenarios, while humanity gains more control (or at least the illusion of control), humanity ends up progressing more slowly than it would if the AI were unrestricted in its willingness to rain down all the benefits and unintended consequences of its advanced technology on the human race. [8]
Boxed AI
(19th century engraving)
People ask what is the relationship between humans and machines, and my answer is that it's very obvious: Machines are our slaves. [26]
The AI box scenario postulates that a superintelligent AI can be "confined to a box" and its actions can be restricted by human gatekeepers; the humans in charge would try to take advantage of some of the AI's scientific breakthroughs or reasoning abilities, without allowing the AI to take over the world. Successful gatekeeping may be difficult; the more intelligent the AI is, the more likely the AI can find a clever way to use "social hacking" and convince the gatekeepers to let it escape, or even to find an unforeseen physical method of escape. [27] [28]
Human-AI merger
Kurzweil argues that in the future "There will be no distinction, post-Singularity, between human and machine or between physical and virtual reality". [29]
Human extinction
If a dominant superintelligent machine were to conclude that human survival is an unnecessary risk or a waste of resources, the result would be human extinction. This could occur if a machine, programmed without respect for human values, unexpectedly gains superintelligence through recursive self-improvement, or manages to escape from its containment in an AI Box scenario. This could also occur if the first superintelligent AI was programmed with an incomplete or inaccurate understanding of human values, either because the task of instilling the AI with human values was too difficult or impossible; due to a buggy initial implementation of the AI; or due to bugs accidentally being introduced, either by its human programmers or by the self-improving AI itself, in the course of refining its code base. Bostrom and others argue that human extinction is probably the "default path" that society is currently taking, in the absence of substantial preparatory attention to AI safety. The resultant AI might not be sentient, and might place no value on sentient life; the resulting hollow world, devoid of life, might be like "a Disneyland without children". [9]
Zoo
Jerry Kaplan, author of Humans Need Not Apply: A Guide to Wealth and Work in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, posits a scenario where humans are farmed or kept on a reserve, just as humans preserve endangered species like chimpanzees. [30] Apple co-founder and AI skeptic Steve Wozniak stated in 2015 that robots taking over would actually "be good for the human race", on the grounds that he believes humans would become the robots' pampered pets. [31]
