Absolute income hypothesis

Last updated

In economics, the absolute income hypothesis concerns how a consumer divides their disposable income between consumption and saving. [1] It is part of the theory of consumption proposed by economist John Maynard Keynes. The hypothesis was subject to further research in the 1960s and 70s, most notably by American economist James Tobin (19182002). [2]

Contents

Background

Keynes' General Theory in 1936 identified the relationship between income and consumption as a key macroeconomic relationship. Keynes asserted that real consumption (i.e. adjusted for inflation) is a function of real disposable income, which is total income net of taxes. As income rises, the theory asserts that consumption will also rise, but not necessarily at the same rate. [2] When applied to a cross section of a population, rich people are expected to consume a lower proportion of their income than poor people.

The marginal propensity to consume is present in Keynes' consumption theory and determines by what amount consumption will change in response to a change in income.

While this theory has success modeling consumption in the short term, attempts to apply this model over a longer time frame have proven less successful. This has led to the absolute income hypothesis falling out of favor as the consumption model of choice for economists. [3] Keynes' consumption function has come to be known as 'absolute income hypothesis' or 'absolute income theory'. His statement of the relationship between income and consumption was based on psychological law.

Model

The model is

where:

See also

Notes

  1. R. L., Thomas (1985). Introductory econometrics, theory and applications. London: Longman. p. 160. ISBN   058229634X. OCLC   10348689.
  2. 1 2 "absolute income hypothesis Archived 2019-04-21 at the Wayback Machine ", wisdomsupreme.com. Retrieved 2019-03-01
  3. Kuznets, S. (1946) National Income: A Summary of Findings, New York: National Bureaus of Economic Research.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Exponential distribution</span> Probability distribution

In probability theory and statistics, the exponential distribution or negative exponential distribution is the probability distribution of the time between events in a Poisson point process, i.e., a process in which events occur continuously and independently at a constant average rate. It is a particular case of the gamma distribution. It is the continuous analogue of the geometric distribution, and it has the key property of being memoryless. In addition to being used for the analysis of Poisson point processes it is found in various other contexts.

<i>The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money</i> 1936 book by John Maynard Keynes

The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money is a book by English economist John Maynard Keynes published in February 1936. It caused a profound shift in economic thought, giving macroeconomics a central place in economic theory and contributing much of its terminology – the "Keynesian Revolution". It had equally powerful consequences in economic policy, being interpreted as providing theoretical support for government spending in general, and for budgetary deficits, monetary intervention and counter-cyclical policies in particular. It is pervaded with an air of mistrust for the rationality of free-market decision making.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cobb–Douglas production function</span> Macroeconomic formula that describes productivity

In economics and econometrics, the Cobb–Douglas production function is a particular functional form of the production function, widely used to represent the technological relationship between the amounts of two or more inputs and the amount of output that can be produced by those inputs. The Cobb–Douglas form was developed and tested against statistical evidence by Charles Cobb and Paul Douglas between 1927 and 1947; according to Douglas, the functional form itself was developed earlier by Philip Wicksteed.

In economics, aggregate demand (AD) or domestic final demand (DFD) is the total demand for final goods and services in an economy at a given time. It is often called effective demand, though at other times this term is distinguished. This is the demand for the gross domestic product of a country. It specifies the amount of goods and services that will be purchased at all possible price levels. Consumer spending, investment, corporate and government expenditure, and net exports make up the aggregate demand.

The marginal propensity to save (MPS) is the fraction of an increase in income that is not spent and instead used for saving. It is the slope of the line plotting saving against income. For example, if a household earns one extra dollar, and the marginal propensity to save is 0.35, then of that dollar, the household will spend 65 cents and save 35 cents. Likewise, it is the fractional decrease in saving that results from a decrease in income.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Consumption (economics)</span> Using money to obtain an item for use

Consumption is the act of using resources to satisfy current needs and wants. It is seen in contrast to investing, which is spending for acquisition of future income. Consumption is a major concept in economics and is also studied in many other social sciences.

In economics, the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is a metric that quantifies induced consumption, the concept that the increase in personal consumer spending (consumption) occurs with an increase in disposable income. The proportion of disposable income which individuals spend on consumption is known as propensity to consume. MPC is the proportion of additional income that an individual consumes. For example, if a household earns one extra dollar of disposable income, and the marginal propensity to consume is 0.65, then of that dollar, the household will spend 65 cents and save 35 cents. Obviously, the household cannot spend more than the extra dollar. If the extra money accessed by the individual gives more economic confidence, then the MPC of the individual may well exceed 1, as they may borrow or utilise savings.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Consumption function</span> Economic model relating consumption and disposable income

In economics, the consumption function describes a relationship between consumption and disposable income. The concept is believed to have been introduced into macroeconomics by John Maynard Keynes in 1936, who used it to develop the notion of a government spending multiplier.

In probability theory, a compound Poisson distribution is the probability distribution of the sum of a number of independent identically-distributed random variables, where the number of terms to be added is itself a Poisson-distributed variable. The result can be either a continuous or a discrete distribution.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Michał Kalecki</span> Polish economist (1899–1970)

Michał Kalecki was a Polish Marxian economist. Over the course of his life, Kalecki worked at the London School of Economics, University of Cambridge, University of Oxford and Warsaw School of Economics and was an economic advisor to the governments of Poland, France, Cuba, Israel, Mexico and India. He also served as the deputy director of the United Nations Economic Department in New York City.

Induced consumption is the portion of consumption that varies with disposable income. When a change in disposable income “induces” a change in consumption on goods and services, then that changed consumption is called “induced consumption”. In contrast, expenditures for autonomous consumption do not vary with income. For instance, expenditure on a consumable that is considered a normal good would be considered to be induced.

Average propensity to consume (APC) is a concept developed by John Maynard Keynes to analyze the consumption function, which is a formula where total consumption expenditures (C) of a household consist of autonomous consumption (Ca) and income (Y) multiplied by marginal propensity to consume. According to Keynes, the individual's real income determines saving and consumption decisions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Permanent income hypothesis</span> Economic model explaining consumption pattern formation

The permanent income hypothesis (PIH) is a model in the field of economics to explain the formation of consumption patterns. It suggests consumption patterns are formed from future expectations and consumption smoothing. The theory was developed by Milton Friedman and published in his A Theory of Consumption Function, published in 1957 and subsequently formalized by Robert Hall in a rational expectations model. Originally applied to consumption and income, the process of future expectations is thought to influence other phenomena. In its simplest form, the hypothesis states changes in permanent income, rather than changes in temporary income, are what drive changes in consumption.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Average propensity to save</span> Proportion of income which is saved

In Keynesian economics, the average propensity to save (APS), also known as the savings ratio, is the proportion of income which is saved, usually expressed for household savings as a fraction of total household disposable income (taxed income).

The Feldman–Mahalanobis model is a Marxist model of economic development, created independently by Soviet economist Grigory Feldman in 1928 and Indian statistician Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis in 1953. Mahalanobis became essentially the key economist of India's Second Five Year Plan, becoming subject to much of India's most dramatic economic debates.

According to Keyne's Psychological Law of Consumption, Consumption is a function of income. In his words; “Human is disposal by nature, as income increases, consumption expenditure also increases but increase in consumption is smaller than the increase in income”. Mathematically C= f(y) ; i.e. C = a + b(y), Where a = Autonomous Consumption, b = MPC and Y = Income

In macroeconomics, a multiplier is a factor of proportionality that measures how much an endogenous variable changes in response to a change in some exogenous variable.

An error correction model (ECM) belongs to a category of multiple time series models most commonly used for data where the underlying variables have a long-run common stochastic trend, also known as cointegration. ECMs are a theoretically-driven approach useful for estimating both short-term and long-term effects of one time series on another. The term error-correction relates to the fact that last-period's deviation from a long-run equilibrium, the error, influences its short-run dynamics. Thus ECMs directly estimate the speed at which a dependent variable returns to equilibrium after a change in other variables.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Poisson distribution</span> Discrete probability distribution

In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. It is named after French mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson. The Poisson distribution can also be used for the number of events in other specified interval types such as distance, area, or volume. It plays an important role for discrete-stable distributions.

The wage unit is a unit of measurement for monetary quantities introduced by Keynes in his 1936 book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. A value expressed in wage units is equal to its price in money units divided by the wage of a man-hour of labour.

References