Asset price inflation

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The U.S. housing bubble is one example of asset price inflation. Large Salinas house.jpg
The U.S. housing bubble is one example of asset price inflation.

Asset price inflation is the economic phenomenon whereby the price of assets rise and become inflated. A common reason for higher asset prices is low interest rates. [1] When interest rates are low, investors and savers cannot make easy returns using low-risk methods such as government bonds or savings accounts. To still get a return on their money, investors instead have to buy up other assets such as stocks and real estate, thereby bidding up the price and creating asset price inflation.

Contents

When people talk about inflation, they usually refer to ordinary goods and services, which is tracked by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This index excludes most financial assets and capital assets. Inflation of such assets should not be confused with inflation of consumer goods and services, as prices in the two categories are not directly correlated. The prices of some goods and services such as housing, energy, and food do track closely with some financial assets.

The primary beneficiaries of rising asset prices are usually those who earn the highest wages or salaries, since the tendency to save and invest is higher. [2]

Examples of typical assets are shares and bonds (and their related contracts), as well as real estate, gold and other capital goods. They can also include alternative investment assets such as fine art, luxury watches, cryptocurrency, and venture capital.

Price inflation vis-à-vis asset inflation

As inflation is generally understood and perceived as the rise in price of 'ordinary' goods and services, and official and central bank policies in most of today’s world have been expressly directed at minimizing 'price inflation', assets inflation has not been the object of much attention or concern. An example of this is the housing market, which concerns almost every individual household, where house prices have over the past 25 years consistently risen by or at least near a two digit percentage, far above that of the Consumer Price Index. [3]

There is no observable cause and effect relationship between asset price inflation and consumer price inflation. Some studies have shown that housing and real estate prices could be leading indicators of consumer price inflation. [4] [5]

Possible causes

Some political economists [ who? ] believe that assets inflation has been, either by default or by design, the outcome of purposive policies pursued by central banks and political decision-makers to combat and reduce the much more visible price inflation. [ citation needed ] This could be for a variety of reasons, some overt, but others more concealed or even disreputable.[ citation needed ] Some think that it is the consequence of a natural reaction of investors to the danger of shrinking value of practically all important currencies, which, as in 2012 e.g., seems to them highly probable due to the tremendous worldwide growth of the mass of money. Their preference for real goods pushes their price up without any purposive policies from decision-makers.

Possible results

Asset price inflation has often been followed by an asset price crash. This can happen in a sudden and sometimes unexpected fall in the price of a particular asset class. Examples of asset price crashes include Dutch tulips in the 17th century, Japanese metropolitan real estate and stocks in the early 1990s, and internet stocks in 2001. A more recent example is that of the 2007 subprime mortgage financial crisis. However, if the money supply has the potential to induce heavy general inflation (all major currencies in 2011/2012) none of these crashes may happen[ citation needed ].

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Inflation</span> Devaluation of currency over a period of time

In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. This is usually measured using a consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.

Financial capital is any economic resource measured in terms of money used by entrepreneurs and businesses to buy what they need to make their products or to provide their services to the sector of the economy upon which their operation is based. In other words, financial capital is internal retained earnings generated by the entity or funds provided by lenders to businesses in order to purchase real capital equipment or services for producing new goods or services.

In economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. Deflation occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0%. Inflation reduces the value of currency over time, but deflation increases it. This allows more goods and services to be bought than before with the same amount of currency. Deflation is distinct from disinflation, a slowdown in the inflation rate; i.e., when inflation declines to a lower rate but is still positive.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bond (finance)</span> Instrument of indebtedness

In finance, a bond is a type of security under which the issuer (debtor) owes the holder (creditor) a debt, and is obliged – depending on the terms – to provide cash flow to the creditor (e.g. repay the principal of the bond at the maturity date as well as interest over a specified amount of time. The timing and the amount of cash flow provided varies, depending on the economic value that is emphasized upon, thus giving rise to different types of bonds. The interest is usually payable at fixed intervals: semiannual, annual, and less often at other periods. Thus, a bond is a form of loan or IOU. Bonds provide the borrower with external funds to finance long-term investments or, in the case of government bonds, to finance current expenditure.

Investment is traditionally defined as the "commitment of resources to achieve later benefits". If an investment involves money, then it can be defined as a "commitment of money to receive more money later". From a broader viewpoint, an investment can be defined as "to tailor the pattern of expenditure and receipt of resources to optimise the desirable patterns of these flows". When expenditures and receipts are defined in terms of money, then the net monetary receipt in a time period is termed cash flow, while money received in a series of several time periods is termed cash flow stream.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Economic bubble</span> Temporary spike in asset prices

An economic bubble is a period when current asset prices greatly exceed their intrinsic valuation, being the valuation that the underlying long-term fundamentals justify. Bubbles can be caused by overly optimistic projections about the scale and sustainability of growth, and/or by the belief that intrinsic valuation is no longer relevant when making an investment. They have appeared in most asset classes, including equities, commodities, real estate, and even esoteric assets. Bubbles usually form as a result of either excess liquidity in markets, and/or changed investor psychology. Large multi-asset bubbles, are attributed to central banking liquidity.

An interest rate is the amount of interest due per period, as a proportion of the amount lent, deposited, or borrowed. The total interest on an amount lent or borrowed depends on the principal sum, the interest rate, the compounding frequency, and the length of time over which it is lent, deposited, or borrowed.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Exchange rate</span> Rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another

In finance, an exchange rate is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another currency. Currencies are most commonly national currencies, but may be sub-national as in the case of Hong Kong or supra-national as in the case of the euro.

In economics, hot money is the flow of funds from one country to another in order to earn a short-term profit on interest rate differences and/or anticipated exchange rate shifts. These speculative capital flows are called "hot money" because they can move very quickly in and out of markets, potentially leading to market instability.

Fixed income refers to any type of investment under which the borrower or issuer is obliged to make payments of a fixed amount on a fixed schedule. For example, the borrower may have to pay interest at a fixed rate once a year and repay the principal amount on maturity. Fixed-income securities can be contrasted with equity securities that create no obligation to pay dividends or any other form of income. Bonds carry a level of legal protections for investors that equity securities do not: in the event of a bankruptcy, bond holders would be repaid after liquidation of assets, whereas shareholders with stock often receive nothing.

Foreign exchange reserves are cash and other reserve assets such as gold and silver held by a central bank or other monetary authority that are primarily available to balance payments of the country, influence the foreign exchange rate of its currency, and to maintain confidence in financial markets. Reserves are held in one or more reserve currencies, nowadays mostly the United States dollar and to a lesser extent the euro.

In finance, an asset class is a group of marketable financial assets that have similar financial characteristics and behave similarly in the marketplace. We can often break these instruments into those having to do with real assets and those having to do with financial assets. Often, assets within the same asset class are subject to the same laws and regulations; however, this is not always true. For instance, futures on an asset are often considered part of the same asset class as the underlying instrument but are subject to different regulations than the underlying instrument.

A financial crisis is any of a broad variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, many financial crises were associated with banking panics, and many recessions coincided with these panics. Other situations that are often called financial crises include stock market crashes and the bursting of other financial bubbles, currency crises, and sovereign defaults. Financial crises directly result in a loss of paper wealth but do not necessarily result in significant changes in the real economy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Real interest rate</span> Interest rate taking inflation into account

The real interest rate is the rate of interest an investor, saver or lender receives after allowing for inflation. It can be described more formally by the Fisher equation, which states that the real interest rate is approximately the nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate.

In finance, risk factors are the building blocks of investing, that help explain the systematic returns in equity market, and the possibility of losing money in investments or business adventures. A risk factor is a concept in finance theory such as the capital asset pricing model, arbitrage pricing theory and other theories that use pricing kernels. In these models, the rate of return of an asset is a random variable whose realization in any time period is a linear combination of other random variables plus a disturbance term or white noise. In practice, a linear combination of observed factors included in a linear asset pricing model proxy for a linear combination of unobserved risk factors if financial market efficiency is assumed. In the Intertemporal CAPM, non-market factors proxy for changes in the investment opportunity set.

The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to finance:

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Quantitative easing</span> Monetary policy tool

Quantitative easing (QE) is a monetary policy action where a central bank purchases predetermined amounts of government bonds or other financial assets in order to stimulate economic activity. Quantitative easing is a novel form of monetary policy that came into wide application after the 2007–2008 financial crisis. It is used to mitigate an economic recession when inflation is very low or negative, making standard monetary policy ineffective. Quantitative tightening (QT) does the opposite, where for monetary policy reasons, a central bank sells off some portion of its holdings of government bonds or other financial assets.

The asset price channel is the monetary transmission channel that is responsible for the distribution of the effects induced by monetary policy decisions made by the central bank of a country that affect the price of assets. These effects on the prices of assets will in turn affect the economy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Glossary of economics</span>

This glossary of economics is a list of definitions containing terms and concepts used in economics, its sub-disciplines, and related fields.

The 1994 bond market crisis, or Great Bond Massacre, was a sudden drop in bond market prices across the developed world. It began in Japan and the United States (US), and spread through the rest of the world. After the recession of the early 1990s, historically low interest rates in many industrialized nations preceded an unexpectedly volatile year for bond investors, including those that held on to mortgage debts. Over 1994, a rise in rates, along with the relatively quick spread of bond market volatility across international borders, resulted in a mass sell-off of bonds and debt funds as yields rose beyond expectations. This was especially the case for instruments with comparatively longer maturities attached. Some financial observers argued that the plummet in bond prices was triggered by the Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates by 25 basis points in February, in a move to counter inflation. At about $1.5 trillion in lost market value across the globe, the crash has been described as the worst financial event for bond investors since 1927.

References

  1. Robert, Shiller. "LOW INTEREST RATES AND HIGH ASSET PRICES: AN INTERPRETATION IN TERMS OF CHANGING POPULAR MODELS" (PDF). Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Adkins, Lisa; Cooper, Melinda; Konings, Martijn (May 2021). "Class in the 21st century: Asset inflation and the new logic of inequality". Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space . 53 (3): 548–572. doi:10.1177/0308518X19873673. Open Access logo PLoS transparent.svg
  3. "Why don't rising house prices count towards inflation?". The Economist. 2021-07-29. ISSN   0013-0613 . Retrieved 2021-08-29.
  4. Batavia, Bala; Nandakumar, Parameswaran; Wague, Cheick (January 2007). "Asset prices and inflation: Is there a predictive link?" (PDF). Institutional Repository of Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode : 12 via DSpace.
  5. Goodhart, Charles; Hofmann, Boris (January 2000). "Do Asset Prices Help to Predict Consumer Price Inflation?". The Manchester School (journal) . 68 (s1): 122–140. doi:10.1111/1467-9957.68.s1.7.(subscription required)