Balance (2013 book)

Last updated

Balance: The Economics of Great Powers
Balance (2013 book).jpg
First edition
Authors Tim Kane R. Glenn Hubbard
CountryUnited States
LanguageEnglish
Genre Economic History
Publisher Simon and Schuster
Publication date
May 20, 2014
Pages368 pp
ISBN 9781476700267

Balance: The Economics of Great Powers from Ancient Rome to Modern America, known colloquially as Balance is a non-fiction economic history text written by former US intelligence officer and economist Captain Tim Kane and economist Glenn Hubbard. While criticized for its brevity across a wide range of historical matters, it has become an often cited text in the debate around American Isolationism and fiscal policy. [1]

Contents

Summary

The text's principal concern is why economic imbalances have historically caused civil collapse, and asks whether The United States could experience a similar decline. [2] The book summarizes the fall of a range of civilizations, including the Ming Dynasty, Ottoman Turkey and Imperial Spain, and reflects on the resulting patterns within their socioeconomic, military and political policies. [3]

From this, Kane and Hubbard introduce a new measure of economic power, based around fiscal balance, national debt and social spending. The text is particularly critical of heavy regulation on internal employment, markets and trade, highlighting the limits of the Japanese model of growth, including an ageing population. The book concludes with a comparison of the twenty-first century United States to former fallen civilizations, and the challenges Americans face in order to address what Kane and Hubbard regard as "dysfunctional fiscal imbalance". [4]

Reception

The book received mixed to positive reviews during the initial release, with The New York Times describing the book's analysis of imperial history as "one-dimensional" but praising the book's overall focus on domestic issues as "dead-on". [5] The Financial Times described the book as "a readable, data-rich history of the fall of great powers through the eyes of two fiscally troubled US conservatives in 2013." [6]

The book has found success in political debate circles, and is often cited within other socioeconomic texts and analysis. [7] [8]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Balance of trade</span> Difference between the monetary value of exports and imports

Balance of trade can be measured in terms of commercial balance, or net exports. Balance of trade is the difference between the monetary value of a nation's exports and imports over a certain time period. Sometimes a distinction is made between a balance of trade for goods versus one for services. The balance of trade measures a flow variable of exports and imports over a given period of time. The notion of the balance of trade does not mean that exports and imports are "in balance" with each other.

Keynesian economics are the various macroeconomic theories and models of how aggregate demand strongly influences economic output and inflation. In the Keynesian view, aggregate demand does not necessarily equal the productive capacity of the economy. It is influenced by a host of factors that sometimes behave erratically and impact production, employment, and inflation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">John Maynard Keynes</span> British economist (1883–1946)

John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes was an English economist and philosopher whose ideas fundamentally changed the theory and practice of macroeconomics and the economic policies of governments. Originally trained in mathematics, he built on and greatly refined earlier work on the causes of business cycles. One of the most influential economists of the 20th century, he produced writings that are the basis for the school of thought known as Keynesian economics, and its various offshoots. His ideas, reformulated as New Keynesianism, are fundamental to mainstream macroeconomics. He is known as the "father of macroeconomics".

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Deficit spending</span> Spending in excess of revenue

Within the budgetary process, deficit spending is the amount by which spending exceeds revenue over a particular period of time, also called simply deficit, or budget deficit: the opposite of budget surplus. The term may be applied to the budget of a government, private company, or individual. Government deficit spending was first identified as a necessary economic tool by John Maynard Keynes in the wake of the Great Depression. It is a central point of controversy in economics, as discussed below.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Paul Krugman</span> American economist (born 1953)

Paul Robin Krugman is an American economist who is the Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York and a columnist for The New York Times. In 2008, Krugman was the sole winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to new trade theory and new economic geography. The Prize Committee cited Krugman's work explaining the patterns of international trade and the geographic distribution of economic activity, by examining the effects of economies of scale and of consumer preferences for diverse goods and services.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Balance of payments</span> Difference between the inflow and outflow of money to a country at a given time

In international economics, the balance of payments of a country is the difference between all money flowing into the country in a particular period of time and the outflow of money to the rest of the world. In other words, it is economic transactions between countries during a period of time. These financial transactions are made by individuals, firms and government bodies to compare receipts and payments arising out of trade of goods and services.

A balanced budget amendment is a constitutional rule requiring that a state cannot spend more than its income. It requires a balance between the projected receipts and expenditures of the government.

Hegemonic stability theory (HST) is a theory of international relations, rooted in research from the fields of political science, economics, and history. HST indicates that the international system is more likely to remain stable when a single state is the dominant world power, or hegemon. Thus, the end of hegemony diminishes the stability of the international system. As evidence for the stability of hegemony, proponents of HST frequently point to the Pax Britannica and Pax Americana, as well as the instability prior to World War I and the instability of the interwar period.

A currency crisis is a type of financial crisis, and is often associated with a real economic crisis. A currency crisis raises the probability of a banking crisis or a default crisis. During a currency crisis the value of foreign denominated debt will rise drastically relative to the declining value of the home currency. Generally doubt exists as to whether a country's central bank has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to maintain the country's fixed exchange rate, if it has any.

<i>The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers</i> Book by Paul Kennedy

The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000, by Paul Kennedy, first published in 1987, explores the politics and economics of the Great Powers from 1500 to 1980 and the reason for their decline. It then continues by forecasting the positions of China, Japan, the European Economic Community (EEC), the Soviet Union and the United States through the end of the 20th century.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Glenn Hubbard (economist)</span> American economist and academic (born 1958)

Robert Glenn Hubbard is an American economist and academic. He served as the Dean of the Columbia University Graduate School of Business from 2004 to 2019, where he remains the Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and Economics. On September 13, 2018, he announced that he would retire from his position after his contract expired on June 30, 2019. Hubbard previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary at the U.S. Department of the Treasury from 1991 to 1993, and as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2001 to 2003.

Under the Ottoman Empire, an askeri was a member of a class of military administrators.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Amity Shlaes</span> American writer

Amity Ruth Shlaes is an American conservative author, writer, and columnist. Shlaes has written five books, including three New York Times Bestsellers. She currently chairs the board of trustees of the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation and serves as a Presidential Scholar at The King's College in New York City. She is a recipient of the Bastiat Prize and, more recently, the Bradley Prize.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kevin Hassett</span> American economist (born 1962)

Kevin Allen Hassett is an American economist who is a former Senior Advisor and Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2019. He has written several books and coauthored Dow 36,000, published in 1999, which argued that the stock market was about to have a massive swing upward and would reach 36,000 by 2004. Shortly thereafter, the dot-com bubble burst, causing a massive decline in stock market prices. The Dow finally did reach 36,000 as the Covid pandemic receded in late 2021.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Michael Hudson (economist)</span> American economist

Michael Hudson is an American economist, Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri–Kansas City and a researcher at the Levy Economics Institute at Bard College, former Wall Street analyst, political consultant, commentator and journalist. He is a contributor to The Hudson Report, a weekly economic and financial news podcast produced by Left Out.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Western world</span> Countries with an originally European shared culture

The Western world, also known as the West, primarily refers to various nations and states in the regions of Australasia, Western Europe, and Northern America; with some debate as to whether those in Eastern Europe and Latin America also constitute the West. The Western world likewise is called the Occident in contrast to the Eastern world known as the Orient. The West is considered an evolving concept; made up of cultural, political, and economic synergy among diverse groups of people, and not a rigid region with fixed borders and members. Definitions of "Western world" vary according to context and perspectives.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Wynne Godley</span> British economist

Wynne Godley was an economist famous for his pessimism about the British economy and his criticism of the British government. In 2007, he and Marc Lavoie wrote a book about the "Stock-Flow Consistent" model, an analysis that predicted the global financial crisis of 2008. Dirk Bezemer argues that Godley was notable for predicting the nature of the Great Recession of the late 2000s well in advance, and for doing so on the basis of a formal model.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Walter Scheidel</span> Austrian historian

Walter Scheidel is an Austrian historian who teaches ancient history at Stanford University, California. Scheidel's main research interests are ancient social and economic history, pre-modern historical demography, and comparative and transdisciplinary approaches to world history.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tim Kane</span> American economist (born 1968)

Timothy Joseph Kane is an American economist and president and founder of The American Lyceum, a non-profit organization that seeks to promote solution-focused, civic debate. Kane was the J-P Conte research fellow at the Hoover Institution, where he specialized in immigration reform. He is a former U.S. Air Force intelligence officer with two overseas tours of duty. After leaving the service, Kane explored a career in start-up technology firms while pursuing a Ph.D. in economics. After working as a teaching professor of economics, Kane served on the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress and was director of the Center for International Trade and Economics at The Heritage Foundation. Kane was also an editor of the 2007 Index of Economic Freedom, co-published by The Wall Street Journal and The Heritage Foundation, and is the author of the book Bleeding Talent: How the U.S. Military Mismanages Great Leaders and Why It's Time for a Revolution. Kane co-authored the book, Balance: The Economics of Great Powers from Ancient Rome to Modern America with Glenn Hubbard. Kane's latest book is The Immigrant Superpower: How Brains, Brawn, and Bravery Make America Stronger.

A balance sheet recession is a type of economic recession that occurs when high levels of private sector debt cause individuals or companies to collectively focus on saving by paying down debt rather than spending or investing, causing economic growth to slow or decline. The term is attributed to economist Richard Koo and is related to the debt deflation concept described by economist Irving Fisher. Recent examples include Japan's recession that began in 1990 and the U.S. recession of 2007-2009.

References

  1. Kaplan, Robert (August 2013). "Rise and Fall". The New York Times . NYC. Retrieved 4 July 2020.
  2. Roulac, Stephen (July 2013). "Balance: The Economics of Great Powers from Ancient Rome to Modern America". New York Journal of Books. NYC. Retrieved 4 July 2020.
  3. Cooper, Richard (November 2013). "Balance: The Economics of Great Powers from Ancient Rome to Modern America". Foreign Affairs. NYC. Retrieved 4 July 2020.
  4. Rees, Matthew (June 2013). "How the Mighty Fall". The Wall Street Journal . NYC. Retrieved 4 July 2020.
  5. Kaplan, Robert (August 2013). "Rise and Fall". The New York Times . NYC. Retrieved 4 July 2020.
  6. Luce, Edward (June 2013). "Decline and Fall". The Financial Times . London. Retrieved 4 July 2020.
  7. "Hubbard and Kane Highlight Budget Process Reform". CFRB Blog. Washington DC: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. August 2013. Retrieved 4 July 2020.
  8. Kane, Tim (Winter 2013). "Regaining America's Balance". National Affairs. Washington DC. Retrieved 4 July 2020.