Daniel Kokotajlo is an artificial intelligence (AI) researcher. He was a researcher in the governance division of OpenAI from 2022 to 2024, [1] and currently leads the AI Futures Project. [2]
Kokotajlo is a former philosophy PhD candidate at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill where he was a recipient of the 2018–2019 Maynard Adams Fellowship for the Public Humanities. [3] In 2022, he became a researcher in the governance division of OpenAI. [1]
Kokotajlo is one of the organizers of a group of OpenAI employees that claimed the company has a secretive and reckless culture that is taking grave risks in the rush to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI). [4] [5] When he resigned in 2024, he refused to sign OpenAI's non-disparagement clause, which could have cost him approximately $2 million in equity. [6] As of May 2024, Kokotajlo confirmed he retained the vested equity. [7] [8] In June 2024, he, with other former OpenAI employees, signed a letter arguing that top frontier AI companies have strong financial incentives to avoid oversight, and calling for a "right to warn" about AI risks without fear of reprisal and while protecting anonymity. [9]
In 2021, Kokotajlo wrote a blog post named "What 2026 Looks Like". In 2025, Kevin Roose commented that "A number of his predictions proved prescient." [2]
He cofounded and leads the AI Futures Project, a nonprofit based in Berkeley, California which researches the future impact of artificial intelligence.
In April 2025, it released "AI 2027", a detailed forecast scenario predicting rapid progress in the automation of coding and AI research, followed by AGI. It laid out a scenario in which fully autonomous AI agents will be better than humans at "everything" around the end of 2027, imagining its impacts on the economy, domestic politics and international relations. [2] At the point of publication Kokotajlo's median forecast for the arrival of such fully autonomous AI agents was actually the middle of 2028 [10] and by August 2025 this had slipped out to the end of 2029. [11]