ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

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The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, simply called the Survey of Professional Forecasters, is a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts for the economy of Europe issued by the European Central Bank (ECB). [1]

Economy of Europe

The economy of Europe comprises more than 740 million people in 50 different countries. Formation of the European Union (EU) and in 1999, the introduction of a unified currency – the euro brings participating European countries closer through the conveniece of a shared currency and has led to a stronger European cash flow. The difference in wealth across Europe can be seen roughly in former Cold War divide, with some countries breaching the divide. Whilst most European states have a GDP per capita higher than the world's average and are very highly developed, some European economies, despite their position over the world's average in the Human Development Index, are poorer.

European Central Bank central bank for the euro

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank for the euro and administers monetary policy of the Eurozone, which consists of 19 EU member states and is one of the largest currency areas in the world. It is one of the world's most important central banks and is one of the seven institutions of the European Union (EU) listed in the Treaty on European Union (TEU). The capital stock of the bank is owned by the central banks of all 28 EU member states. The Treaty of Amsterdam established the bank in 1998, and it is headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany. As of 2015 the President of the ECB is Mario Draghi, former governor of the Bank of Italy, former member of the World Bank, and former managing director of the Goldman Sachs international division (2002–2005). The bank primarily occupied the Eurotower prior to, and during, the construction of the new headquarters.

Contents

History

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters was started in 1999. [1] [2]

In 2007, the ECB published a review of the survey based on eight years of experience. [3]

Reception

Academic research

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters has been the subject of some academic research, including a 2013 paper considering whether there was a better way of combining the forecasts than simply taking the average. They found some methods of combining that did better than the average, but noted that it was not clear that these methods would continue to beat the average in the future. [4]

See also

The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts for the economy of the United States issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It is the oldest such survey in the United States.

United States Federal republic in North America

The United States of America (USA), commonly known as the United States or America, is a country composed of 50 states, a federal district, five major self-governing territories, and various possessions. At 3.8 million square miles, the United States is the world's third or fourth largest country by total area and is slightly smaller than the entire continent of Europe's 3.9 million square miles. With a population of over 327 million people, the U.S. is the third most populous country. The capital is Washington, D.C., and the largest city by population is New York City. Forty-eight states and the capital's federal district are contiguous in North America between Canada and Mexico. The State of Alaska is in the northwest corner of North America, bordered by Canada to the east and across the Bering Strait from Russia to the west. The State of Hawaii is an archipelago in the mid-Pacific Ocean. The U.S. territories are scattered about the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, stretching across nine official time zones. The extremely diverse geography, climate, and wildlife of the United States make it one of the world's 17 megadiverse countries.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia building in Pennsylvania, United States

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, also known as the Philadelphia Fed and the Philly Fed – headquartered at 10 N. Independence Mall West at Arch Street, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, with an additional entrance at N. 7th Street – is responsible for the Third District of the Federal Reserve, which covers eastern and central Pennsylvania, the nine southern counties of New Jersey, and Delaware. Its geographical territory is by far the smallest in the system, and its population base is the second-smallest. The current President of the Philadelphia Fed is Patrick T. Harker.

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European System of Central Banks

The European System of Central Banks (ESCB) consists of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the national central banks (NCBs) of all 28 member states of the European Union (EU).

Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms.

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Hungary and the euro

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References

  1. 1 2 "ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters". European Central Bank . Retrieved April 13, 2014.
  2. ↑ Juan Angel Garcia (September 2003). "An Introduction to the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters" (PDF). European Central Bank.
  3. ↑ Carlos Bowles; Roberta Friz; Veronique Genre; Geoff Kenny; Aidan Meyler; Tuomas Rautanen (April 2007). "The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: A Review After Eight Years of Experience" (PDF).
  4. ↑ Genre, Veronique; Kenny, Geoff; Meyler, Aidan; Timmermann, Aidan (2013). "Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?". International Journal of Forecasting . International Institute of Forecasters in collaboration with Elsevier. 29: 108–121. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.06.004.
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