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An economic calendar is used by investors to monitor market-moving events, such as economic indicators and monetary policy decisions. [1] Market-moving events, which are typically announced or released in a report, have a high probability of impacting the financial markets. [2]
An economic calendar is usually displayed as a chart showing the days, weeks and months of a particular year. Each day lists several market-moving events in chronological order, giving investors time to research and anticipate the specific release of interest to them.
An economic indicator is a statistic that conveys certain information about economic activity. Economic indicators allow investors to analyses the economic performance of a state, country or region, as well as make forecasts about future performance.
For example, each quarter the United States releases data on gross domestic product (GDP). This economic indicator allows investors to analyze the performance of the US economy over the previous three-month period, and make comparisons against the previous year. How fast the US economy grows can have a significant impact on market behavior.
Economic indicators are usually released by governments, international organizations and private research firms.
Monetary policy refers to the process by which central banks and other monetary authorities control the money supply. Each country and economic region has a monetary authority that seeks to promote stability and economic growth within its jurisdiction. One of the ways a monetary authority might do this is by adjusting (either increasing or decreasing) interest rates. [3]
Central banks and monetary authorities meet several times each year to discuss current market conditions and determine whether or not monetary policy needs to be adjusted to achieve the desired result of stability and growth. These events are outlined in the economic calendar.
For example, the European Central Bank (ECB) meets every month to discuss monetary policy and determine the appropriate interest rate. The ECB's Governing Council announces the interest rate decision after the meetings. Investors use the announcement to not only hear about ongoing policy developments, but to forecast future ones.
Monetary policy is formulated and released by central banks and monetary authorities only.
An economic calendar not only lists daily events, but the volatility levels attached to them. A volatility level refers to the likelihood that a specific event will impact the markets. Economic calendars usually have a three-scale volatility gauge. If an event has a level one volatility, it is not expected to significantly affect the markets. An event with a volatility level of two is expected to impact the markets moderately, depending on other factors (e.g. other market-moving events, political factors, news items, etc.). An event with a volatility level of three is expected to have a significant impact on the markets. Highly volatile events are often the most closely monitored.
Below are some examples of level one, level two and level three events:
Volatility Level One
Volatility Level Two
Volatility Level Three
Investors should also note that large, economically powerful countries usually have the biggest impact on the markets. In this case, an economic indicator released by a smaller country may not have the same impact as one released by a bigger country. For example, the consumer price index of Greece is unlikely to impact the markets, and some calendars will have it listed as a level one event. By contrast, consumer price index data from the United States or Eurozone will have the biggest impact on the markets. Countries and economic regions that tend to impact the markets the most are the United States, Eurozone, Japan and the United Kingdom. [4]
Volatility levels are usually expressed in colour (see below):
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Events listed on the economic calendar are released at different intervals, depending on the nature of the event. Events usually occur weekly, monthly and quarterly (i.e. every three months). The frequency of the event also varies with each country and region.
As a general rule, most events occur monthly. Few events are released quarterly and even fewer are released weekly. Below are some examples.
Weekly Events
Monthly Events
Quarterly Events
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the prime component of the Eurosystem and the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) as well as one of seven institutions of the European Union. It is one of the world's most important central banks.
In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. This is usually measured using the consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.
Government bond also known as sovereign bond is a form of bond issued by a government to support government spending. It generally includes a commitment to pay periodic interest, called coupon payment, and to repay the face value on the maturity date.
In economics and political science, fiscal policy is the use of government revenue collection and expenditure to influence a country's economy. The use of government revenue expenditures to influence macroeconomic variables developed in reaction to the Great Depression of the 1930s, when the previous laissez-faire approach to economic management became unworkable. Fiscal policy is based on the theories of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, whose Keynesian economics theorised that government changes in the levels of taxation and government spending influence aggregate demand and the level of economic activity. Fiscal and monetary policy are the key strategies used by a country's government and central bank to advance its economic objectives. The combination of these policies enables these authorities to target inflation and to increase employment. In modern economies, inflation is conventionally considered "healthy" in the range of 2%–3%. Additionally, it is designed to try to keep GDP growth at 2%–3% percent and the unemployment rate near the natural unemployment rate of 4%–5%. This implies that fiscal policy is used to stabilise the economy over the course of the business cycle.
An economic bubble is a period when current asset prices greatly exceed their intrinsic valuation, being the valuation that the underlying long-term fundamentals justify. Bubbles can be caused by overly optimistic projections about the scale and sustainability of growth, and/or by the belief that intrinsic valuation is no longer relevant when making an investment. They have appeared in most asset classes, including equities, commodities, real estate, and even esoteric assets. Bubbles usually form as a result of either excess liquidity in markets, and/or changed investor psychology. Large multi-asset bubbles, are attributed to central banking liquidity.
An interest rate is the amount of interest due per period, as a proportion of the amount lent, deposited, or borrowed. The total interest on an amount lent or borrowed depends on the principal sum, the interest rate, the compounding frequency, and the length of time over which it is lent, deposited, or borrowed.
In finance, an exchange rate is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another currency. Currencies are most commonly national currencies, but may be sub-national as in the case of Hong Kong or supra-national as in the case of the euro.
Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the monetary authority of a nation to affect monetary and other financial conditions to accomplish broader objectives like high employment and price stability. Further purposes of a monetary policy may be to contribute to economic stability or to maintain predictable exchange rates with other currencies. Today most central banks in developed countries conduct their monetary policy within an inflation targeting framework, whereas the monetary policies of most developing countries' central banks target some kind of a fixed exchange rate system. A third monetary policy strategy, targeting the money supply, was widely followed during the 1980s, but has diminished in popularity since that, though it is still the official strategy in a number of emerging economies.
The foreign exchange market is a global decentralized or over-the-counter (OTC) market for the trading of currencies. This market determines foreign exchange rates for every currency. It includes all aspects of buying, selling and exchanging currencies at current or determined prices. In terms of trading volume, it is by far the largest market in the world, followed by the credit market.
Foreign exchange reserves are cash and other reserve assets such as gold held by a central bank or other monetary authority that are primarily available to balance payments of the country, influence the foreign exchange rate of its currency, and to maintain confidence in financial markets. Reserves are held in one or more reserve currencies, nowadays mostly the United States dollar and to a lesser extent the euro.
Financial risk is any of various types of risk associated with financing, including financial transactions that include company loans in risk of default. Often it is understood to include only downside risk, meaning the potential for financial loss and uncertainty about its extent.
In macroeconomics, inflation targeting is a monetary policy where a central bank follows an explicit target for the inflation rate for the medium-term and announces this inflation target to the public. The assumption is that the best that monetary policy can do to support long-term growth of the economy is to maintain price stability, and price stability is achieved by controlling inflation. The central bank uses interest rates as its main short-term monetary instrument.
In economics, an optimum currency area (OCA) or optimal currency region (OCR) is a geographical region in which it would maximize economic efficiency to have the entire region share a single currency.
Currency depreciation is the loss of value of a country's currency with respect to one or more foreign reference currencies, typically in a floating exchange rate system in which no official currency value is maintained. Currency appreciation in the same context is an increase in the value of the currency. Short-term changes in the value of a currency are reflected in changes in the exchange rate.
Quantitative easing (QE) is a monetary policy action where a central bank purchases predetermined amounts of government bonds or other financial assets in order to stimulate economic activity. Quantitative easing is a novel form of monetary policy that came into wide application after the financial crisis of 2007–2008. It is used to mitigate an economic recession when inflation is very low or negative, making standard monetary policy ineffective. Quantitative tightening (QT) does the opposite, where for monetary policy reasons, a central bank sells off some portion of its holdings of government bonds or other financial assets.
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling is a macroeconomic method which is often employed by monetary and fiscal authorities for policy analysis, explaining historical time-series data, as well as future forecasting purposes. DSGE econometric modelling applies general equilibrium theory and microeconomic principles in a tractable manner to postulate economic phenomena, such as economic growth and business cycles, as well as policy effects and market shocks.
An economic recovery is the phase of the business cycle following a recession. The overall business outlook for an industry looks optimistic during the economic recovery phase.
In the Philippines, monetary policy is the way the central bank, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, controls the supply and availability of money, the cost of money, and the rate of interest. With fiscal policy, monetary policy allows the government to influence the economy, control inflation, and stabilize currency.
Macro risk is financial risk that is associated with macroeconomic or political factors. There are at least three different ways this phrase is applied. It can refer to economic or financial risk found in stocks and funds, to political risk found in different countries, and to the impact of economic or financial variables on political risk. Macro risk can also refer to types of economic factors which influence the volatility over time of investments, assets, portfolios, and the intrinsic value of companies.
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