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Edgar E. Peters (born July 16, 1952), is an asset manager and writer on investment management topics. He is noted for his early contributions to the application of chaos theory and fractals to the financial markets. These works primarily dealt with fat tailed distributions originally discovered by Benoit Mandelbrot and expanded upon in Peters (1991 and 1994). These probability distributions are considered fractal because they are self-similar over different investment horizons once adjusted for scale.
Peters worked as an asset manager for PanAgora Asset Management, Inc., during which time he researched rescaled range analysis, and attempted to estimate the Hurst exponent of various financial markets. He has also taught at Babson College, Boston College and Bentley College, and contributed papers to the Journal of Portfolio Management and the Financial Analysts Journal. [1] His current venture is "Fractal Market Cycles and Regimes" at www.edgarepeters.com. [2]
His books include Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets (According to WorldCat, the book is held in 813 libraries, [3] ) Fractal Market Analysis (held in 580 libraries [4] ) and Patterns in the Dark: Understanding Risk and Financial Crisis with Complexity Theory. According to Google Scholar his books and articles have over 6000 references. [1]
The fractal market hypothesis (FMH) was proposed by Peters (1994). [5] That hypothesis suggests that financial markets are stable and efficient when participants have diverse investment horizons, that that prices reflect the interplay of these horizons, and market instability arises when short-term investors dominate and disrupt that balance. [6]
Recent research has supported the FMH as well describing the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 as well as Tech Bubble of 2000. [7] [8] The FMH is a model of investor behavior that unlike the efficient-market hypothesis assumes investors have multiple time horizons and interpret information based upon their horizon.
More recently he has contributed to the risk parity literature.
Finance refers to monetary resources and to the study and discipline of money, currency, assets and liabilities. As a subject of study, it is related to but distinct from economics, which is the study of the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. Based on the scope of financial activities in financial systems, the discipline can be divided into personal, corporate, and public finance.
Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements ; health; competitors and markets. It also considers the overall state of the economy and factors including interest rates, production, earnings, employment, GDP, housing, manufacturing and management. There are two basic approaches that can be used: bottom up analysis and top down analysis. These terms are used to distinguish such analysis from other types of investment analysis, such as quantitative and technical.
Financial economics is the branch of economics characterized by a "concentration on monetary activities", in which "money of one type or another is likely to appear on both sides of a trade". Its concern is thus the interrelation of financial variables, such as share prices, interest rates and exchange rates, as opposed to those concerning the real economy. It has two main areas of focus: asset pricing and corporate finance; the first being the perspective of providers of capital, i.e. investors, and the second of users of capital. It thus provides the theoretical underpinning for much of finance.
In finance, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is a model used to determine a theoretically appropriate required rate of return of an asset, to make decisions about adding assets to a well-diversified portfolio.
The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a hypothesis in financial economics that states that asset prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to "beat the market" consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information.
Peter Lewyn Bernstein was an American financial historian, economist and educator whose evangelizing of the efficient-market hypothesis to the public made him one of the country's best known popularizers of academic finance.
Financial risk management is the practice of protecting economic value in a firm by managing exposure to financial risk - principally credit risk and market risk, with more specific variants as listed aside - as well as some aspects of operational risk. As for risk management more generally, financial risk management requires identifying the sources of risk, measuring these, and crafting plans to mitigate them. See Finance § Risk management for an overview.
Active management is an approach to investing. In an actively managed portfolio of investments, the investor selects the investments that make up the portfolio. Active management is often compared to passive management or index investing.
Alpha is a measure of the active return on an investment, the performance of that investment compared with a suitable market index. An alpha of 1% means the investment's return on investment over a selected period of time was 1% better than the market during that same period; a negative alpha means the investment underperformed the market.
A stock trader or equity trader or share trader, also called a stock investor, is a person or company involved in trading equity securities and attempting to profit from the purchase and sale of those securities. Stock traders may be an investor, agent, hedger, arbitrageur, speculator, or stockbroker. Such equity trading in large publicly traded companies may be through a stock exchange. Stock shares in smaller public companies may be bought and sold in over-the-counter (OTC) markets or in some instances in equity crowdfunding platforms.
Momentum investing is a system of buying stocks or other securities that have had high returns over the past three-to-twelve months, and selling those that have had poor returns over the same period.
Hyman Philip Minsky was an American economist and economy professor at Washington University in St. Louis. A distinguished scholar at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, his research was intent on providing explanations to the characteristics of financial crises, which he attributed to swings in a potentially fragile financial system.
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to finance:
There are several concepts of efficiency for a financial market. The most widely discussed is informational or price efficiency, which is a measure of how quickly and completely the price of a single asset reflects available information about the asset's value. Other concepts include functional/operational efficiency, which is inversely related to the costs that investors bear for making transactions, and allocative efficiency, which is a measure of how far a market channels funds from ultimate lenders to ultimate borrowers in such a way that the funds are used in the most productive manner.
A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, and the Perils of Financial Innovation (2007) is a book by veteran Wall Street risk manager Richard Bookstaber. The book is noted for its foreshadowing of the financial crisis of 2007–08. Bookstaber had a "a front-row seat" for such crises as the stock market crash of 1987 and the demise of Long-Term Capital Management, and his book is built around themes drawn from those experiences.
A period of financial distress occurs when the price of a company or an asset or an index of a set of assets in a market is declining with the danger of a sudden crash of value occurring, either because the company is experiencing increasing problems of cash flow or a deteriorating credit balance or because the price had become too high as a result of a speculative bubble that has now peaked.
Portfolio optimization is the process of selecting an optimal portfolio, out of a set of considered portfolios, according to some objective. The objective typically maximizes factors such as expected return, and minimizes costs like financial risk, resulting in a multi-objective optimization problem. Factors being considered may range from tangible to intangible.
Quantitative analysis is the use of mathematical and statistical methods in finance and investment management. Those working in the field are quantitative analysts (quants). Quants tend to specialize in specific areas which may include derivative structuring or pricing, risk management, investment management and other related finance occupations. The occupation is similar to those in industrial mathematics in other industries. The process usually consists of searching vast databases for patterns, such as correlations among liquid assets or price-movement patterns.
Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference.
Richard Bookstaber is the author of A Demon Of Our Own Design, a book highlighting the fragility of the financial system that occurs from tight coupling and complexity. The book is noted for its foreshadowing of the financial crisis of 2007–08. He is also the author of The End of Theory, which critiques the applicability of economics in dealing with financial crises, and proposes an alternative paradigm using agent-based models.