Fiscal gap

Last updated

The fiscal gap is a measure of a government's total indebtedness proposed by economists Laurence Kotlikoff and Alan Auerbach, who define it as the difference between the present value of all of government's projected financial obligations, including future expenditures, including servicing outstanding official federal debt, and the present value of all projected future tax and other receipts, including income accruing from the government's current ownership of financial assets. [1] According to Kotlikoff and Auerbach, the "fiscal gap" accounting method can be used to calculate the percentage of necessary tax increases or spending reductions needed to close the fiscal gap in the long-run.

Contents

Generational accounting, an accounting method closely related to the fiscal gap, has been proposed by the same authors as a measure of the future burden of closing the fiscal gap. The "generational accounting" assumes that current taxpayers are neither asked to pay more in taxes nor receive less in transfer payments than current policy suggests and that successive younger generations' lifetime tax payments net of transfer payments received rise in proportion to their labor earnings.

According to Kotlikoff and Auerbach, "fiscal gap accounting" and "generational accounting" reports have been done for roughly 40 developed and developing countries either by their treasury departments, finance ministries, or central banks, or by the IMF, the World Bank, or other international agencies, or by academics and think tanks.

Size of the U.S. fiscal gap

Fiscal gap accounting is not new to the U.S. government.[ citation needed ] The Social Security Trustees and Medicare Trustees have been presenting such calculations for their own systems for years in their annual reports.[ citation needed ] And generational accounting has been included in the President's Budget on three occasions.[ citation needed ]

Based on calculations using the 2012 Alternative Fiscal Scenario long-term projections by the Congressional Budget Office, some estimate the U.S. fiscal gap stands to be $222 trillion – more than 13 times larger than the reported U.S. National Debt.[ citation needed ] According to the same estimates, the gap grew $11 trillion from 2011 to 2012.[ citation needed ] Eliminating the entire U.S. fiscal gap through revenue alone would require a permanent 64% increase in all federal taxes.[ citation needed ] Alternatively, closing the gap through spending reductions alone would require a permanent 40% cut in all federal purchases and transfer payments. [2]

Criticism of fiscal gap accounting

The proposed "fiscal gap" accounting method has been criticized as fundamentally flawed by economists Dean Baker, [3] Bradford DeLong, [4] and Paul Krugman. [5] Their critiques, referenced above, center on the fact that fiscal gap accounting calculates the growth future debt in current account terms, without taking into account the fact that future GDP will also grow proportionately, with the result that future debt will fall on generations with substantially larger incomes to cover the debt, obviating the seeming fiscal impossibility of covering the gap. These criticism are misplaced.[ according to whom? ] Auerbach and Kotlikoff's generational accounting fully adjusts for productivity growth.[ citation needed ] It assumes the lifetime net tax burden facing future generations rises for successive generations by the economy's productivity growth rate.[ citation needed ] Thus, if, under current law, a generation born this year would, on average, face a 30 percent lifetime net tax rate (lifetime net taxes divided by the present value of labor earnings) and closing the fiscal gap would require that figure to rise to, say, 50 percent, all young and future generations would face 50 percent lifetime net tax rates.[ speculation? ]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Social Security Trust Fund</span> Type of trust fund in the United States

The Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund are trust funds that provide for payment of Social Security benefits administered by the United States Social Security Administration.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Deficit spending</span> Spending in excess of revenue

Within the budgetary process, deficit spending is the amount by which spending exceeds revenue over a particular period of time, also called simply deficit, or budget deficit; the opposite of budget surplus. The term may be applied to the budget of a government, private company, or individual. Government deficit spending was first identified as a necessary economic tool by John Maynard Keynes in the wake of the Great Depression. It is a central point of controversy in economics, as discussed below.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Government budget balance</span> Difference between revenues and spending

The government budget balance, also referred to as the general government balance, public budget balance, or public fiscal balance, is the difference between government revenues and spending. For a government that uses accrual accounting the budget balance is calculated using only spending on current operations, with expenditure on new capital assets excluded. A positive balance is called a government budget surplus, and a negative balance is a government budget deficit. A government budget presents the government's proposed revenues and spending for a financial year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">National debt of the United States</span>

The national debt of the United States is the total national debt owed by the federal government of the United States to Treasury security holders. The national debt at any point in time is the face value of the then-outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal agencies. The terms "national deficit" and "national surplus" usually refer to the federal government budget balance from year to year, not the cumulative amount of debt. In a deficit year the national debt increases as the government needs to borrow funds to finance the deficit, while in a surplus year the debt decreases as more money is received than spent, enabling the government to reduce the debt by buying back some Treasury securities. In general, government debt increases as a result of government spending and decreases from tax or other receipts, both of which fluctuate during the course of a fiscal year. There are two components of gross national debt:

The economies of Canada and the United States are similar because both are developed countries. While both countries feature in the top ten economies in the world in 2022, the U.S. is the largest economy in the world, with US$24.8 trillion, with Canada ranking ninth at US$2.2 trillion.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Government debt</span> Total amount of debt owed to lenders by a government/state

A country's gross government debt is the financial liabilities of the government sector. Changes in government debt over time reflect primarily borrowing due to past government deficits. A deficit occurs when a government's expenditures exceed revenues. Government debt may be owed to domestic residents, as well as to foreign residents. If owed to foreign residents, that quantity is included in the country's external debt.

This article concerns proposals to change the Social Security system in the United States. Social Security is a social insurance program officially called "Old-age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance" (OASDI), in reference to its three components. It is primarily funded through a dedicated payroll tax. During 2015, total benefits of $897 billion were paid out versus $920 billion in income, a $23 billion annual surplus. Excluding interest of $93 billion, the program had a cash deficit of $70 billion. Social Security represents approximately 40% of the income of the elderly, with 53% of married couples and 74% of unmarried persons receiving 50% or more of their income from the program. An estimated 169 million people paid into the program and 60 million received benefits in 2015, roughly 2.82 workers per beneficiary. Reform proposals continue to circulate with some urgency, due to a long-term funding challenge faced by the program as the ratio of workers to beneficiaries falls, driven by the aging of the baby-boom generation, expected continuing low birth rate, and increasing life expectancy. Program payouts began exceeding cash program revenues in 2011; this shortfall is expected to continue indefinitely under current law.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">United States federal budget</span> Budget of the U.S. federal government

The United States budget comprises the spending and revenues of the U.S. federal government. The budget is the financial representation of the priorities of the government, reflecting historical debates and competing economic philosophies. The government primarily spends on healthcare, retirement, and defense programs. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office provides extensive analysis of the budget and its economic effects. It has reported that large budget deficits over the next 30 years are projected to drive federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels—from 98 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 to 195 percent by 2050.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Laurence Kotlikoff</span> American academic and politician

Laurence Jacob Kotlikoff is a professor of economics at Boston University, a William Warren Fairfield Professor at Boston University, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Fellow of the Econometric Society, and a former Senior Economist on the President's Council of Economic Advisers.

The economic policy and legacy of the George W. Bush administration was characterized by significant income tax cuts in 2001 and 2003, the implementation of Medicare Part D in 2003, increased military spending for two wars, a housing bubble that contributed to the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007–2008, and the Great Recession that followed. Economic performance during the period was adversely affected by two recessions, in 2001 and 2007–2009.

Generational accounting is a method of measuring the fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. Generational accounting considers how much each adult generation, on a per person basis, is likely to pay in future taxes net of transfer payments, over the rest of their lives.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Financial position of the United States</span>

The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $20billion and debts of $145.8 trillion to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion. GDP in Q1 decline was due to foreclosures and increased rates of household saving. There were significant declines in debt to GDP in each sector except the government, which ran large deficits to offset deleveraging or debt reduction in other sectors.

The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform was a bipartisan Presidential Commission on deficit reduction, created in 2010 by President Barack Obama to identify "policies to improve the fiscal situation in the medium term and to achieve fiscal sustainability over the long run". The 18-member Commission, consisting of 12 members of Congress and six private citizens, first met on April 27, 2010. A report was released on December 1, recommending a combination of spending cuts and tax increases.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Expenditures in the United States federal budget</span> Overview of expenditures in the United States federal budget

The United States federal budget consists of mandatory expenditures, discretionary spending for defense, Cabinet departments and agencies, and interest payments on debt. This is currently over half of U.S. government spending, the remainder coming from state and local governments.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">The Path to Prosperity</span> U.S. budget proposal of the Republican Party

The Path to Prosperity: Restoring America's Promise was the Republican Party's budget proposal for the federal government of the United States in the fiscal year 2012. It was succeeded in March 2012 by "The Path to Prosperity: A Blueprint for American Renewal", the Republican budget proposal for 2013. Representative Paul Ryan, Chairman of the House Budget Committee, played a prominent public role in drafting and promoting both The Path to Prosperity proposals, and they are therefore often referred to as the Ryan budget, Ryan plan or Ryan proposal.

In 2011, ongoing political debate in the United States Congress about the appropriate level of government spending and its effect on the national debt and deficit reached a crisis centered on raising the debt ceiling, leading to the passage of the Budget Control Act of 2011.

Political debates about the United States federal budget discusses some of the more significant U.S. budgetary debates of the 21st century. These include the causes of debt increases, the impact of tax cuts, specific events such as the United States fiscal cliff, the effectiveness of stimulus, and the impact of the Great Recession, among others. The article explains how to analyze the U.S. budget as well as the competing economic schools of thought that support the budgetary positions of the major parties.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Deficit reduction in the United States</span> Economic policy debates and proposals designed to reduce the U.S. federal government budget deficit

Deficit reduction in the United States refers to taxation, spending, and economic policy debates and proposals designed to reduce the federal government budget deficit. Government agencies including the Government Accountability Office (GAO), Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and the U.S. Treasury Department have reported that the federal government is facing a series of important long-run financing challenges, mainly driven by an aging population, rising healthcare costs per person, and rising interest payments on the national debt.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Trillion-dollar coin</span> Proposed denomination of coinage in the United States

The trillion-dollar coin is a concept that emerged during the United States debt-ceiling crisis of 2011 as a proposed way to bypass any necessity for the United States Congress to raise the country's borrowing limit, through the minting of very high-value platinum coins. The concept gained more mainstream attention by late 2012 during the debates over the United States fiscal cliff negotiations and renewed debt-ceiling discussions. After reaching the headlines during the week of January 7, 2013, use of the trillion-dollar coin concept was ultimately rejected by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.

As a result of the Budget Control Act of 2011, a set of automatic spending cuts to United States federal government spending in particular of outlays were initially set to begin on January 1, 2013. They were postponed by two months by the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 until March 1 when this law went into effect.

References

  1. "The Federal Government's Long-term Fiscal Outlook: Spring 2012 Update" (PDF). Government Accountability Office. Retrieved 4 August 2013.
  2. Kotlikoff, Laurence J. "Blink! U.S. Debt Just Grew by $11 Trillion". Bloomberg. Retrieved 25 July 2013.
  3. Dean Baker, "Larry Kotlikoff Tells Us Why We Should Not Use Infinite Horizon Budget Accounting", Beat the Press blog, 31 July 2014 (accessed 9 October 2015).
  4. J. Bradford DeLong, "Oh Dear. Larry Kotlikoff Fails to Read...: Let's Make This This Week's Monday Smackdown", Grasping Reality blog, August 04, 2014 (accessed 9 October 2015).
  5. Paul Krugman, "Quadrillions and Quadrillions", The Conscience of a Liberal blog, 2 August 2014 (accessed 9 October 2015).