Gerald Meehl

Last updated
Gerald Allen Meehl
Born (1951-05-21) May 21, 1951 (age 72)
Denver, Colorado
Alma mater University of Colorado
AwardsThe Editor's Award from the Journal of Climate in 1999, Jule G. Charney Award from the American Meteorological Society in 2009
Scientific career
Fields Climatology, atmospheric science
Institutions National Center for Atmospheric Research
Thesis Interactions between the Asian monsoons, the tropical Pacific, and the southern hemisphere extratropics  (1987)

Gerald Allen "Jerry" Meehl (born 1951) is a climate scientist who has been a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research since 2001.

Contents

Early life and education

Meehl, who was born in Denver, is the son of a family of wheat farmers from Hudson. It was the conversations Meehl had with his father about the future weather, and how that might affect their crops, that sparked his interest in the weather and climate. [1] He received his B.S. (with distinction), M.S., and PhD from the University of Colorado.

Scientific career

He was a lead author of the sixth chapter of the IPCC Second Assessment Report, published in 1995, [2] [3] and helped oversee the chapter about climate projections in the IPCC AR4, published in 2007. [4] He is an ISI highly cited researcher, [5] and is known for his research linking global warming to extreme weather. [6] [7] [8] He has also done much research into the use of global climate models. One of these studies, in which Meehl et al. showed that models could not reproduce recent warming without including anthropogenic influences, was featured in a 2004 review of climate science by the George W. Bush administration. [9] His research has also shown that record high temperatures in the continental United States were more than twice as common as record lows in the 2000s, [10] [11] that it may soon be possible to predict heat waves three weeks in advance (rather than 10 days, which is the best current forecasts can do), [7] [12] and that the global warming hiatus observed over the last 15 years or so may be caused by more heat accumulating in the deep ocean. [13] [14] [15] When Meehl joined Matthew England to publish one such study in Nature Climate Change in 2014, [16] Meehl said that this study "...makes the case that, though other factors could contribute somewhat to the early-2000s hiatus, the Pacific is a major driving force in producing naturally-occurring climate variability that can overwhelm the warming from ever-increasing greenhouse gases to produce the hiatus." He also proposed that this occurred because of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation switching to its negative phase. [17] In September 2014, Meehl et al. published another study on this topic, in which they attempted to simulate the hiatus with currently available climate models. They found that these models were able to simulate the hiatus, and concluded that it was largely caused by natural variability. [18] [19]

Awards and honors

In 1999, Meehl received the editor's award from the Journal of Climate . He also received the Jule G. Charney Award from the American Meteorological Society in 2009, [2] and was elected a fellow of the American Geophysical Union in 2014. [20]

Other writings

Meehl has also written several historical books about World War II in the Pacific. His interest in World War II began when he heard his uncles tell stories about their experiences fighting in the war when he was growing up, and he focused on the Pacific because he was sent on an expedition to Tutuila while an undergraduate at the University of Colorado. [1]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Attribution of recent climate change</span> Effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent global warming

Four main lines of evidence support attribution of recent climate change to human activities: Firstly, a physical understanding of the climate system: greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established. Secondly, there are historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual. Thirdly, computer-based climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included. And finally, natural forces alone cannot explain the observed warming.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate</span> Statistics of weather conditions in a given region over long periods

Climate is the long-term weather pattern in a region, typically averaged over 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of meteorological variables over a time spanning from months to millions of years. Some of the meteorological variables that are commonly measured are temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, and precipitation. In a broader sense, climate is the state of the components of the climate system, including the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere and the interactions between them. The climate of a location is affected by its latitude, longitude, terrain, altitude, land use and nearby water bodies and their currents.

The global warming controversy concerns past or present public debates over certain aspects of climate change: whether it is occurring, how much has occurred in modern times, what has caused it, what its effects will be, whether action should be taken to curb it now or later, and so forth. In the scientific literature, there is a very strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate variability and change</span> Change in the statistical distribution of climate elements for an extended period

Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. Climate change may refer to any time in Earth's history, but the term is now commonly used to describe contemporary climate change, often popularly referred to as global warming. Since the Industrial Revolution, the climate has increasingly been affected by human activities.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Extreme weather</span> Unusual, severe or unseasonal weather

Extreme weather includes unexpected, unusual, severe, or unseasonal weather; weather at the extremes of the historical distribution—the range that has been seen in the past. Extreme events are based on a location's recorded weather history. They are defined as lying in the most unusual ten percent. The main types of extreme weather include heat waves, cold waves and heavy precipitation or storm events, such as tropical cyclones. The effects of extreme weather events are economic costs, loss of human lives, droughts, floods, landslides. Severe weather is a particular type of extreme weather which poses risks to life and property.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climatology</span> Scientific study of climate, defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of time

Climatology or climate science is the scientific study of Earth's climate, typically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of at least 30 years. Climate concerns the atmospheric condition during an extended to indefinite period of time; weather is the condition of the atmosphere during a relative brief period of time. The main topics of research are the study of climate variability, mechanisms of climate changes and modern climate change. This topic of study is regarded as part of the atmospheric sciences and a subdivision of physical geography, which is one of the Earth sciences. Climatology includes some aspects of oceanography and biogeochemistry.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">General circulation model</span> Type of climate model

A general circulation model (GCM) is a type of climate model. It employs a mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean. It uses the Navier–Stokes equations on a rotating sphere with thermodynamic terms for various energy sources. These equations are the basis for computer programs used to simulate the Earth's atmosphere or oceans. Atmospheric and oceanic GCMs are key components along with sea ice and land-surface components.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kevin E. Trenberth</span> American climatologist

Kevin Edward Trenberth was part of the Climate Analysis Section at the US NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research. He was appointed Distinguished Scholar at NCAR in 2020. He is also an honorary faculty member in the Physics Department at the University of Auckland, New Zealand. He was a lead author of the 1995, 2001 and 2007 IPCC Scientific Assessment of Climate Change and served on the Scientific Steering Group for the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program. He chaired the WCRP Observation and Assimilation Panel from 2004 to 2010 and chaired the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) scientific steering group from 2010 to 2013. In addition, he served on the Joint Scientific Committee of the World Climate Research Programme, and has made significant contributions to research into El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Pacific decadal oscillation</span> Recurring pattern of climate variability

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is a robust, recurring pattern of ocean-atmosphere climate variability centered over the mid-latitude Pacific basin. The PDO is detected as warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, north of 20°N. Over the past century, the amplitude of this climate pattern has varied irregularly at interannual-to-interdecadal time scales. There is evidence of reversals in the prevailing polarity of the oscillation occurring around 1925, 1947, and 1977; the last two reversals corresponded with dramatic shifts in salmon production regimes in the North Pacific Ocean. This climate pattern also affects coastal sea and continental surface air temperatures from Alaska to California.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate commitment</span> Unavoidable future climate change due to inertial effects

Climate commitment describes the fact that Earth's climate reacts with a delay to influencing factors such as the growth and the greater presence of greenhouse gases. Climate commitment studies attempt to assess the amount of future global warming that is "committed" under the assumption of some constant or some evolving level of forcing. The constant level often used for illustrative purposes is that due to CO2 doubling or quadrupling relative to the pre-industrial level; or the present level of forcing.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Atlantic meridional overturning circulation</span> System of surface and deep currents in the Atlantic Ocean

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is part of a global thermohaline circulation in the oceans and is the zonally integrated component of surface and deep currents in the Atlantic Ocean. It is characterized by a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic, and a southward flow of colder, deep waters. These "limbs" are linked by regions of overturning in the Nordic and Labrador Seas and the Southern Ocean, although the extent of overturning in the Labrador Sea is disputed. The AMOC is an important component of the Earth's climate system, and is a result of both atmospheric and thermohaline drivers.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate system</span> Interactions that create Earths climate and may result in climate change

Earth's climate system is a complex system with five interacting components: the atmosphere (air), the hydrosphere (water), the cryosphere, the lithosphere and the biosphere. Climate is the statistical characterization of the climate system, representing the average weather, typically over a period of 30 years, and is determined by a combination of processes in the climate system, such as ocean currents and wind patterns. Circulation in the atmosphere and oceans is primarily driven by solar radiation and transports heat from the tropical regions to regions that receive less energy from the Sun. The water cycle also moves energy throughout the climate system. In addition, different chemical elements, necessary for life, are constantly recycled between the different components.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Atlantic multidecadal oscillation</span> Climate cycle that affects the surface temperature of the North Atlantic

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), also known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), is the theorized variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Atlantic Ocean on the timescale of several decades.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Polar amplification</span>

Polar amplification is the phenomenon that any change in the net radiation balance tends to produce a larger change in temperature near the poles than in the planetary average. This is commonly referred to as the ratio of polar warming to tropical warming. On a planet with an atmosphere that can restrict emission of longwave radiation to space, surface temperatures will be warmer than a simple planetary equilibrium temperature calculation would predict. Where the atmosphere or an extensive ocean is able to transport heat polewards, the poles will be warmer and equatorial regions cooler than their local net radiation balances would predict. The poles will experience the most cooling when the global-mean temperature is lower relative to a reference climate; alternatively, the poles will experience the greatest warming when the global-mean temperature is higher.

This is a list of climate change topics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global warming hiatus</span> Period of little Earth temperature change

A global warming hiatus, also sometimes referred to as a global warming pause or a global warming slowdown, is a period of relatively little change in globally averaged surface temperatures. In the current episode of global warming many such 15-year periods appear in the surface temperature record, along with robust evidence of the long-term warming trend. Such a "hiatus" is shorter than the 30-year periods that climate is classically averaged over.

Julie Michelle Arblaster is an Australian scientist. She is a Professor in the School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment at Monash University. She was a contributing author on reports for which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was a co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. Arblaster was a lead author on Chapter 12 of the IPCC Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in 2013. She has received the 2014 Anton Hales Medal for research in earth sciences from the Australian Academy of Science, and the 2017 Priestley Medal from the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. She has been ranked as one of the Top Influential Earth Scientists of 2010-2020, based on citations and discussion of her work.

Caroline C. Ummenhofer is a physical oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution where she studies extreme weather events with a particular focus on the Indian Ocean. Ummenhofer makes an effort to connect her discoveries about predicting extreme weather events and precipitation to helping the nations affected.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ronald J. Stouffer</span> American climate scientist

Ronald J. Stouffer is a meteorologist and adjunct professor at the University of Arizona, formerly Senior Research Climatologist and head of the Climate and Ecosystems Group at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), part of NOAA. He has also served on the faculty of Princeton University.

References

  1. 1 2 Branan, Nicole (December 2006). "World War II inspires climatologist" (PDF). University of Colorado . Archived from the original (PDF) on 25 March 2014. Retrieved 25 March 2014.
  2. 1 2 "Gerald A. Meehl CV" (PDF). University Corporation for Atmospheric Research . Archived from the original (PDF) on 2013-10-07. Retrieved 15 February 2014.
  3. ↑ "Climate Change 1995" (PDF). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1995. p. 58. Retrieved 15 February 2014.
  4. ↑ Eilperin, Juliet (3 February 2007). "Humans Faulted for Global Warming". The Washington Post . Retrieved 15 February 2014.
  5. ↑ Highly Cited Researchers Search Results for "Gerald Meehl"
  6. ↑ Borenstein, Seth (21 October 2006). "Future Forecast: Extreme Weather". The Washington Post . Retrieved 15 February 2014.
  7. 1 2 "Study: Killer heat waves may soon be forecast weeks away". USA Today . Associated Press. 28 October 2013. Retrieved 15 February 2014.
  8. ↑ Eilperin, Juliet (18 October 2005). "Warming to Cause Harsher Weather, Study Says". The Washington Post . Retrieved 15 February 2014.
  9. ↑ Revkin, Andrew (31 August 2004). "Computers Add Sophistication, but Don't Resolve Climate Debate". The New York Times . Retrieved 25 March 2014.
  10. ↑ Meehl, G. A.; Tebaldi, C.; Walton, G.; Easterling, D.; McDaniel, L. (2009). "Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S". Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (23). Bibcode:2009GeoRL..3623701M. doi:10.1029/2009GL040736. S2CID   2813939.
  11. ↑ "Warning sign: Record Highs are Double the Lows". NBC News . 12 November 2009. Retrieved 15 February 2014.
  12. ↑ AP (28 October 2013). "Meteorologists may soon be able to predict heat waves weeks away". CBS News . Retrieved 1 May 2014.
  13. ↑ Meehl, G. A.; Hu, A.; Arblaster, J. M.; Fasullo, J.; Trenberth, K. E. (2013). "Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation". Journal of Climate. 26 (18): 7298. Bibcode:2013JCli...26.7298M. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1 .
  14. ↑ Mooney, Chris (28 August 2013). "Is Global Warming Really Slowing Down?". Mother Jones . Retrieved 15 February 2014.
  15. ↑ Morello, Lauren (19 September 2011). "By Storing More Heat, Oceans Create 'Hiatus Periods' in Rise of Global Warming -- Study". New York Times . Retrieved 16 February 2014.
  16. ↑ England, Matthew H.; McGregor, Shayne; Spence, Paul; Meehl, Gerald A.; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju; Gupta, Alex Sen; McPhaden, Michael J.; Purich, Ariaan; Santoso, Agus (9 February 2014). "Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus". Nature Climate Change. 4 (3): 222–227. Bibcode:2014NatCC...4..222E. doi:10.1038/nclimate2106.
  17. ↑ Ogburn, Stephanie Paige (10 February 2014). "Stronger Winds over Pacific Ocean Help Slow Global Warming". Scientific American . Retrieved 18 March 2014.
  18. ↑ Meehl, Gerald A.; Teng, Haiyan; Arblaster, Julie M. (7 September 2014). "Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming". Nature Climate Change. 4 (10): 898–902. Bibcode:2014NatCC...4..898M. doi:10.1038/nclimate2357.
  19. ↑ Davey, Melissa (8 September 2014). "Research shows surprise global warming 'hiatus' could have been forecast". The Guardian . Retrieved 16 September 2014.
  20. ↑ "DOE Climate Modeler Gerald Meehl Elected to AGU Fellow Class of 2014". US Department of Energy. 2014. Retrieved 3 February 2015.
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