In finance, holding period return (HPR) is the return on an asset or portfolio over the whole period during which it was held. It is one of the simplest and most important measures of investment performance.
HPR is the change in value of an investment, asset or portfolio over a particular period. It is the entire gain or loss, which is the sum income and capital gains, divided by the value at the beginning of the period.
where the End Value includes income, such as dividends, earned on the investment:
where is the value at the start of the holding period and is the total value at the end of the holding period.
To annualize a holding period return means to find the equivalent rate of return per year. Assuming income and capital gains and losses are reinvested, i.e. retained in the portfolio, then:
t being the length of the holding period, measured in years. For example, if you have held the item for half a year, t would equal 1/2, so 1/t would equal 2. (However, investment performance professionals generally advise against quoting annualized return over a holding period of less than a year).
To calculate an annual HPR from four quarterly HPRs, it is necessary to know whether income is reinvested within each quarter or not. If HPR1 through HPR4 are the holding period returns for four consecutive periods, assuming that income is reinvested, the annual HPR obeys the relation:
End of: | 1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter | 3rd Quarter | 4th Quarter |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
Stock Price | $98 | $101 | $102 | $99 |
Quarterly HPR | -1% | 4.08% | 1.98% | -1.96% |
Annual HPR | 3% |
To the right is an example of a stock investment of one share purchased at the beginning of the year for $100. Assume dividends are not reinvested. At the end of the first quarter the stock price is $98. The stock share bought for $100 can only be sold for $98, which is the value of the investment at the end of the first quarter. This is less than the purchase price, so the investment has suffered a capital loss. The first quarter holding period return is:
($98 – $100 + $1) / $100 = -1%
Since the final stock price at the end of the year is $99, the annual holding period return is:
($99 ending price - $100 beginning price + $4 dividends) / $100 beginning price = 3%
If the final stock price had been $95, the annual HPR would be:
($95 ending price - $100 beginning price + $4 dividends) / $100 beginning price = -1%.
In finance, discounting is a mechanism in which a debtor obtains the right to delay payments to a creditor, for a defined period of time, in exchange for a charge or fee. Essentially, the party that owes money in the present purchases the right to delay the payment until some future date. This transaction is based on the fact that most people prefer current interest to delayed interest because of mortality effects, impatience effects, and salience effects. The discount, or charge, is the difference between the original amount owed in the present and the amount that has to be paid in the future to settle the debt.
The net present value (NPV) or net present worth (NPW) applies to a series of cash flows occurring at different times. The present value of a cash flow depends on the interval of time between now and the cash flow. It also depends on the annual effective discount rate. NPV accounts for the time value of money. It provides a method for evaluating and comparing capital projects or financial products with cash flows spread over time, as in loans, investments, payouts from insurance contracts plus many other applications.
Internal rate of return (IRR) is a method of quantifying the merits of a project or investment opportunity. The calculation is termed internal because it depends only on the cash flows of the investment being analyzed and excludes external factors, such as returns available elsewhere, the risk-free rate, inflation, the cost of capital, or financial risk.
In economics and finance, present value (PV), also known as present discounted value, is the value of an expected income stream determined as of the date of valuation. The present value is usually less than the future value because money has interest-earning potential, a characteristic referred to as the time value of money, except during times of negative interest rates, when the present value will be equal or more than the future value. Time value can be described with the simplified phrase, "A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow". Here, 'worth more' means that its value is greater than tomorrow. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow because the dollar can be invested and earn a day's worth of interest, making the total accumulate to a value more than a dollar by tomorrow. Interest can be compared to rent. Just as rent is paid to a landlord by a tenant without the ownership of the asset being transferred, interest is paid to a lender by a borrower who gains access to the money for a time before paying it back. By letting the borrower have access to the money, the lender has sacrificed the exchange value of this money, and is compensated for it in the form of interest. The initial amount of borrowed funds is less than the total amount of money paid to the lender.
The Black–Scholes or Black–Scholes–Merton model is a mathematical model for the dynamics of a financial market containing derivative investment instruments, using various underlying assumptions. From the parabolic partial differential equation in the model, known as the Black–Scholes equation, one can deduce the Black–Scholes formula, which gives a theoretical estimate of the price of European-style options and shows that the option has a unique price given the risk of the security and its expected return. The equation and model are named after economists Fischer Black and Myron Scholes; Robert C. Merton, who first wrote an academic paper on the subject, is sometimes also credited.
The dividend yield or dividend–price ratio of a share is the dividend per share divided by the price per share. It is also a company's total annual dividend payments divided by its market capitalization, assuming the number of shares is constant. It is often expressed as a percentage.
In financial markets, stock valuation is the method of calculating theoretical values of companies and their stocks. The main use of these methods is to predict future market prices, or more generally, potential market prices, and thus to profit from price movement – stocks that are judged undervalued are bought, while stocks that are judged overvalued are sold, in the expectation that undervalued stocks will overall rise in value, while overvalued stocks will generally decrease in value. A target price is a price at which an analyst believes a stock to be fairly valued relative to its projected and historical earnings.
In finance, return is a profit on an investment. It comprises any change in value of the investment, and/or cash flows which the investor receives from that investment over a specified time period, such as interest payments, coupons, cash dividends and stock dividends. It may be measured either in absolute terms or as a percentage of the amount invested. The latter is also called the holding period return.
The modified internal rate of return (MIRR) is a financial measure of an investment's attractiveness. It is used in capital budgeting to rank alternative investments of equal size. As the name implies, MIRR is a modification of the internal rate of return (IRR) and as such aims to resolve some problems with the IRR.
The modified Dietz method is a measure of the ex post performance of an investment portfolio in the presence of external flows.
Earnings growth is the annual compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of earnings from investments.
The dividend payout ratio is the fraction of net income a firm pays to its stockholders in dividends:
In finance and investing, the dividend discount model (DDM) is a method of valuing the price of a company's stock based on the fact that its stock is worth the sum of all of its future dividend payments, discounted back to their present value. In other words, DDM is used to value stocks based on the net present value of the future dividends. The constant-growth form of the DDM is sometimes referred to as the Gordon growth model (GGM), after Myron J. Gordon of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Rochester, and the University of Toronto, who published it along with Eli Shapiro in 1956 and made reference to it in 1959. Their work borrowed heavily from the theoretical and mathematical ideas found in John Burr Williams 1938 book "The Theory of Investment Value," which put forth the dividend discount model 18 years before Gordon and Shapiro.
The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment. In 2010 an academic paper highlighted this issue found with most web charts in the 'compare' mode, and was published in the Journal of Behavioral Finance. The discrepancy between total return charts and "price only" charts was later brought out in the Wall Street Journal.
In finance, the T-model is a formula that states the returns earned by holders of a company's stock in terms of accounting variables obtainable from its financial statements. The T-model connects fundamentals with investment return, allowing an analyst to make projections of financial performance and turn those projections into a required return that can be used in investment selection.
The time-weighted return (TWR) is a method of calculating investment return, where returns over sub-periods are compounded together, with each sub-period weighted according to its duration. The time-weighted method differs (further) from other methods of calculating investment return, in the particular way it compensates for external flows
In finance, the capital structure substitution theory (CSS) describes the relationship between earnings, stock price and capital structure of public companies. The CSS theory hypothesizes that managements of public companies manipulate capital structure such that earnings per share (EPS) are maximized. Managements have an incentive to do so because shareholders and analysts value EPS growth. The theory is used to explain trends in capital structure, stock market valuation, dividend policy, the monetary transmission mechanism, and stock volatility, and provides an alternative to the Modigliani–Miller theorem that has limited descriptive validity in real markets. The CSS theory is only applicable in markets where share repurchases are allowed. Investors can use the CSS theory to identify undervalued stocks.
The sum of perpetuities method (SPM) is a way of valuing a business assuming that investors discount the future earnings of a firm regardless of whether earnings are paid as dividends or retained. SPM is an alternative to the Gordon growth model (GGM) and can be applied to business or stock valuation if the business is assumed to have constant earnings and/or dividend growth. The variables are:
In investment, an annuity is a series of payments made at equal intervals. Examples of annuities are regular deposits to a savings account, monthly home mortgage payments, monthly insurance payments and pension payments. Annuities can be classified by the frequency of payment dates. The payments (deposits) may be made weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly, or at any other regular interval of time. Annuities may be calculated by mathematical functions known as "annuity functions".
In the valuation theory department of economics, the Transactional Asset Pricing Approach (TAPA) is a general reconstruction of asset pricing theory developed in 2000s by a collaboration of Russian and Israeli economists Vladimir B. Michaletz and Andrey I. Artemenkov. It provides a basis for reconstructing the discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis and the resulting income capitalization techniques, such as the Gordon growth formula, from a transactional perspective relying, in the process, on a formulated dynamic principle of transactional equity-in-exchange.