Italy and the International Monetary Fund

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Italy has been a member of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) since 1947, they joined in an effort to revive the economy after WWII. Currently Italy has a 3.02% vote share. Recently IMF have claimed that Italy's proposed budget which has a deficit of 2.4% of their GDP could lead to a recession that would last till the 2020s

Contents

Relationship

Italy became a member of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1947 in an effort to revive the economy after World War II. Italy holds a 3.02% vote share within the IMF. [1]

Italian economy

Italy is regarded to have one of the most disastrous economies in the EU but has been recovering at a moderate since 2013. [2] Italian productivity also lags behind most Westernised countries while employees are working more hours than most but producing less since the 1990s. The IMF report discovered that Italy's poor performance was due to excessive regulation and a lack of R&D spending. [3] The nonexistence of a stable governing body in Italy hampers Italy's ability at a significant recovery. Italy has one of the largest debts globally, that hit around 2.3 million Euros. In addition to significant debt Italy also faces a substantial double digit rate of unemployment. [4]

IMF warnings to Italy

Budget crisis

The IMF has warned that the proposed budget in Italy would create backlash across the EU. In October 2018, Italy's populist government announced that it is targeting a deficit of 2.4% of GDP, which triples the value of the previous administration. [5] The government vows to spend more despite already having a substantial debt. This plan also would push Italy's debt higher that its current level of 130% of its GDP, which more than twice than the EU limit that is 60%. The direction that Italy is currently headed could bring forth another financial crisis and also jeopardises the value of the euro. [6]

Danger of a recession

The IMF also warned Italy that the passing of their proposed budget could result in a recession that could last until the mid 2020s. [7] Italy's economy has been in turmoil since 2008 and the IMF predicts that at the current growth rate the anti-EU government will prolong Italy in reaching the economic prosperity it had prior to the collapse. Italy has been growing at just around one percent a year since 2016. [8]

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Austerity Policies to cut spending to reduce government deficit or debt

Austerity is a set of political-economic policies that aim to reduce government budget deficits through spending cuts, tax increases, or a combination of both. There are three primary types of austerity measures: higher taxes to fund spending, raising taxes while cutting spending, and lower taxes and lower government spending. Austerity measures are often used by governments that find it difficult to borrow or meet their existing obligations to pay back loans. The measures are meant to reduce the budget deficit by bringing government revenues closer to expenditures. Proponents of these measures state that this reduces the amount of borrowing required and may also demonstrate a government's fiscal discipline to creditors and credit rating agencies and make borrowing easier and cheaper as a result.

Government debt Total amount of debt owed to lenders by a government/state

A country's gross government debt is the financial liabilities of the government sector. Changes in government debt over time reflect primarily borrowing due to past government deficits. A deficit occurs when a government's expenditures exceed revenues. Government debt may be owed to domestic residents, as well as to foreign residents. If owed to foreign residents, that quantity is included in the country's external debt.

Great Recession Early 21st-century global economic decline

The Great Recession was a period of marked general decline, i.e. a recession, observed in national economies globally that occurred between 2007 and 2009. The scale and timing of the recession varied from country to country. At the time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded that it was the most severe economic and financial meltdown since the Great Depression. One result was a serious disruption of normal international relations.

Beginning in 2008 many nations of the world enacted fiscal stimulus plans in response to the Great Recession. These nations used different combinations of government spending and tax cuts to boost their sagging economies. Most of these plans were based on the Keynesian theory that deficit spending by governments can replace some of the demand lost during a recession and prevent the waste of economic resources idled by a lack of demand. The International Monetary Fund recommended that countries implement fiscal stimulus measures equal to 2% of their GDP to help offset the global contraction. In subsequent years, fiscal consolidation measures were implemented by some countries in an effort to reduce debt and deficit levels while at the same time stimulating economic recovery.

European debt crisis Multi-year debt crisis in multiple EU countries since late 2009

The European debt crisis, often also referred to as the eurozone crisis or the European sovereign debt crisis, is a multi-year debt crisis that took place in the European Union (EU) from 2009 until the mid to late 2010s. Several eurozone member states were unable to repay or refinance their government debt or to bail out over-indebted banks under their national supervision without the assistance of third parties like other eurozone countries, the European Central Bank (ECB), or the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Greek government-debt crisis Sovereign debt crisis faced by Greece (2009-2018)

Greece faced a sovereign debt crisis in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007–2008. Widely known in the country as The Crisis, it reached the populace as a series of sudden reforms and austerity measures that led to impoverishment and loss of income and property, as well as a small-scale humanitarian crisis. In all, the Greek economy suffered the longest recession of any advanced mixed economy to date. As a result, the Greek political system has been upended, social exclusion increased, and hundreds of thousands of well-educated Greeks have left the country.

United Kingdom national debt Total quantity of money borrowed by the Government of the United Kingdom

The United Kingdom national debt is the total quantity of money borrowed by the Government of the United Kingdom at any time through the issue of securities by the British Treasury and other government agencies.

The 2010–2014 Portuguese financial crisis was part of the wider downturn of the Portuguese economy that started in 2001 and possibly ended between 2016 and 2017. The period from 2010 to 2014 was probably the hardest and more challenging part of the entire economic crisis; this period includes the 2011–14 international bailout to Portugal and was marked by an intense austerity policies, more intense than the wider 2001-2017 crisis. Economic growth stalled in Portugal between 2001 and 2002, and following years of internal economic crisis, the worldwide Great Recession started to hit Portugal in 2008 and eventually led to the country being unable to repay or refinance its government debt without the assistance of third parties. To prevent an insolvency situation in the debt crisis, Portugal applied in April 2011 for bail-out programs and drew a cumulated €78 billion from the IMF, the EFSM, and the EFSF. Portugal exited the bailout in May 2014, the same year that positive economic growth re-appeared following three years of recession. The government achieved a 2.1% budget deficit in 2016 and in 2017 the economy grew 2.7%.

Causes of the European debt crisis

The European debt crisis is an ongoing financial crisis that has made it difficult or impossible for some countries in the euro area to repay or re-finance their government debt without the assistance of third parties.

Economic reforms and recovery proposals regarding the Eurozone crisis

The Eurozone crisis is an ongoing financial crisis that has made it difficult or impossible for some countries in the euro area to repay or re-finance their government debt without the assistance of third parties.

Proposed long-term solutions for the Eurozone crisis

The proposed long-term solutions for the Eurozone crisis involve ways to deal with the ongoing Eurozone crisis and the risks to Eurozone country governments and the Euro. They try and deal with the difficulty that some countries in the euro area have experience trying to repay or re-finance their government debt without the assistance of third parties. The solutions range from tighter fiscal union, the issuing of Eurozone bonds to debt write-offs, each of which has both financial and political implications, meaning no solution has found favour with all parties involved.

Ireland has been a member of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) since 1957, and has contributed to and drawn funds from the fund on occasion, most notably in 2010, when it received an international loan package of 22.5 billion euros to fund programmes to restore the banking system to health, and reduce budget deficits.

Greece is one of the original members of the International Monetary Fund, joining it on December 27, 1945. It has a quota of 2,428.90 million SDRs and 25,754 votes, 0.51% of the total IMF quota and votes. Greece has been represented on the IMF Board of Governors by Minister of Finance Christos Staikouras since 2019. Greece elects an Executive Director on the fund's Executive Board with Albania, Italy, Malta, Portugal and San Marino. Michail Psalidopoulos is the elected alternate director. Greece has signed two loan agreements with the IMF: a Stand-By Arrangement from 2010 to 2012 and an agreement under the Extended Fund Facility from 2012 to 2016, borrowing a total of 27,766.3 million SDR. Greece owes the IMF 6,735.64 million SDR, and is the fund's third-largest borrower. In 2018, the fund began conducting annual post-program monitoring of Greece in addition to its annual Article IV consultation.

References

  1. "List of Members' Date of Entry". International Monetary Fund. Retrieved 2018-12-03.
  2. Birnbaum, Michael. "Italy's political crisis is a gut punch to Europe". Washington Post. Retrieved 2018-12-03.
  3. Weissmann, Jordan (2011-11-10). "4 Reasons Why Italy's Economy Is Such a Disaster". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2018-12-03.
  4. Seth, Shobhit (2018-05-30). "All About the Italian Economic Crisis of 2018". Investopedia. Retrieved 2018-12-03.
  5. Inman, Phillip (2018-10-09). "IMF warns Italy not to breach EU spending rules in next budget". the Guardian. Retrieved 2018-12-03.
  6. Barry, Colleen. "Italy's doesn't budge in clash with EU over budget deficit". WBTV. Retrieved 2018-12-03.
  7. Elliott, Larry (2016-07-11). "IMF warns Italy of two-decade-long recession". the Guardian. Retrieved 2018-12-03.
  8. "The IMF expects Italy to suffer a two-decade long recession". The Independent. Retrieved 2018-12-03.