MAgPIE

Last updated

MAgPIE [1] is a non-linear, recursive, dynamic-optimization, global land and water-use model with a cost-minimization objective function. [2] [3] MAgPIE was developed and is employed by the land-use group working at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). It links regional economic information with grid-based biophysical constraints simulated by the dynamic vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL. [4] MAgPIE considers spatially-explicit patterns of production, land use change and water constraints in different world regions, consistently linking economic development with food and energy demand. [5]

Contents

The Model

Input data and output parameters of MAgPIE Magpie illustration.jpg
Input data and output parameters of MAgPIE

The model is based on static yield functions in order to model potential crop productivity and its related water use. [2] For the biophysical supply simulation, spatially explicit 0.5° data is aggregated to a consistent number of clusters. Ten world regions represent the demand side of the model. Required calories for the demand categories (food and non-food energy intake) are determined by a cross-sectional country regression based on population and income projections. In order to fulfill the demand, the model allocates 19 cropping and 5 livestock activities to the spatially-explicit land and water resources, subject to resource, management and cost constraints. From 1995 MAgPIE simulates time-steps of 10 years. For each period the optimal land use pattern from the previous period is used as a starting point. [4]

Demand

The demand for agricultural products is fixed for every region and every time-step. The drivers of agricultural demand are: time, income and population growth. Total demand is composed of: food demand, material demand, feed demand and seed demand. Food demand depends on food energy demand, and the share of crop and livestock products in the diet. Within livestock products, the share of different products (Ruminant meat, chicken meat, other meat, milk, eggs) is fixed at 1995 levels. The same is valid for the share of crops within total food calories and material demand. The share of livestock products in the total consumed food calories is an important driver for the land-use sector. Different statistical models are used to estimate plausible future scenarios. A calibration is used to reach the livestock shares of the Food Balance Sheets for 1995 for each region.

Feed for livestock is produced as a mixture of concentrates, fodder, livestock products (e.g. bone meal), pasture, crop residues and conversion by-products (e.g. rapeseed cake) at predefined proportions. These differences in the livestock systems cause different emission levels from livestock.

Biophysical Inputs

The biophysical inputs for the simulations are obtained from the grid-based model LPJmL. The global vegetation model with managed land (LPJmL) also delivers values for water availability and requirements for each grid cell as well as the carbon content of the different vegetation types. Cropland, pasture, and irrigation water are fixed inputs in limited supply in each grid cell. [4]

Cost Types

MAgPIE takes four different cost types into account: production costs for crop and livestock production, investments in technological change, land conversion costs and intra-regional transport costs. By minimizing these four cost components on a global scale for the current time step, the model solution is obtained. Production costs in MAgPIE imply costs for labor, capital and intermediate inputs. They are specific for all crop and livestock types and are implemented as costs per area for crops (US$/ha) and costs per production unit of livestock (US$/ton).

MAgPIE has two options to increase total production in agriculture at additional costs: land expansion and intensification. In MAgPIE the latter can be achieved by investments in technological change (TC). [4] Investing in technological change triggers yield increases which lead then to a higher total production. At the same time the corresponding increases in agricultural land-use intensity raises costs for further yield increases. The reason is that intensification on land which is already used intensively is more expensive than intensification on extensively-used land.

To increase production another alternative is to expand cropland into non-agricultural land. [6] The conversion causes additional costs for the preparation of new land and basic infrastructure investments, which are also taken into account. Intraregional transport costs arise for each commodity unit as a function of the distance to intraregional markets and therefore restrict land expansion in MAgPIE. This depends on the quality and accessibility of infrastructure. Intra-regional transport costs are higher for less accessible areas than for more accessible regions. This leads to higher overall costs of cropland expansion in those cases. [4]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Agriculture</span> Cultivation of plants and animals to provide useful products

Agriculture or farming is the practice of cultivating plants and livestock. Agriculture was the key development in the rise of sedentary human civilization, whereby farming of domesticated species created food surpluses that enabled people to live in cities. The history of agriculture began thousands of years ago. After gathering wild grains beginning at least 105,000 years ago, nascent farmers began to plant them around 11,500 years ago. Sheep, goats, pigs and cattle were domesticated over 10,000 years ago. Plants were independently cultivated in at least 11 regions of the world. Industrial agriculture based on large-scale monoculture in the twentieth century came to dominate agricultural output, though about 2 billion people still depended on subsistence agriculture.

The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to agriculture:

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Intensive farming</span> Type of agriculture using high inputs to try to get high outputs

Intensive agriculture, also known as intensive farming, conventional, or industrial agriculture, is a type of agriculture, both of crop plants and of animals, with higher levels of input and output per unit of agricultural land area. It is characterized by a low fallow ratio, higher use of inputs such as capital and labour, and higher crop yields per unit land area.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Renewable resource</span> Natural resource that is replenished relatively quickly

A renewable resource, also known as a flow resource, is a natural resource which will replenish to replace the portion depleted by usage and consumption, either through natural reproduction or other recurring processes in a finite amount of time in a human time scale. When the recovery rate of resources is unlikely to ever exceed a human time scale, these are called perpetual resources. Renewable resources are a part of Earth's natural environment and the largest components of its ecosphere. A positive life-cycle assessment is a key indicator of a resource's sustainability.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Environmental vegetarianism</span> Type of practice of vegetarianism

Environmental vegetarianism is the practice of vegetarianism when motivated by the desire to create a sustainable diet that avoids the negative environmental impact of meat production. Livestock as a whole is estimated to be responsible for around 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, significant reduction in meat consumption has been advocated by, among others, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in their 2019 special report and as part of the 2017 World Scientists' Warning to Humanity.

Energy forestry is a form of forestry in which a fast-growing species of tree or woody shrub is grown specifically to provide biomass or biofuel for heating or power generation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Agriculture in India</span> History of agriculture in India

The history of agriculture in India dates back to the neolothic. India ranks second worldwide in farm outputs. As per 2018, agriculture employed more than 50% of the Indian work force and contributed 17–18% to country's GDP.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sustainable food system</span> Balanced growth of nutritional substances and their distribution

A sustainable food system is a type of food system that provides healthy food to people and creates sustainable environmental, economic and social systems that surround food. Sustainable food systems start with the development of sustainable agricultural practices, development of more sustainable food distribution systems, creation of sustainable diets and reduction of food waste throughout the system. Sustainable food systems have been argued to be central to many or all 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

The environmental impact of meat production varies because of the wide variety of agricultural practices employed around the world. All agricultural practices have been found to have a variety of effects on the environment. Some of the environmental effects that have been associated with meat production are pollution, greenhouse gas emissions through fossil fuel usage, animal methane, effluent waste, and water and land consumption. Meat is obtained through a variety of methods, including organic farming, free range farming, intensive livestock production, subsistence agriculture, hunting, and fishing.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Agricultural land</span> Land used for agricultural purposes

Agricultural land is typically land devoted to agriculture, the systematic and controlled use of other forms of life—particularly the rearing of livestock and production of crops—to produce food for humans. It is generally synonymous with both farmland or cropland, as well as pasture or rangeland.

There are various social, economic, environmental and technical issues with biofuel production and use, which have been discussed in the popular media and scientific journals. These include: the effect of moderating oil prices, the "food vs fuel" debate, poverty reduction potential, carbon emissions levels, sustainable biofuel production, deforestation and soil erosion, loss of biodiversity, effect on water resources, the possible modifications necessary to run the engine on biofuel, as well as energy balance and efficiency. The International Resource Panel, which provides independent scientific assessments and expert advice on a variety of resource-related themes, assessed the issues relating to biofuel use in its first report Towards sustainable production and use of resources: Assessing Biofuels. In it, it outlined the wider and interrelated factors that need to be considered when deciding on the relative merits of pursuing one biofuel over another. It concluded that not all biofuels perform equally in terms of their effect on climate, energy security and ecosystems, and suggested that environmental and social effects need to be assessed throughout the entire life-cycle.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Farm water</span>

Farm water, also known as agricultural water, is water committed for use in the production of food and fibre and collecting for further resources. In the US, some 80% of the fresh water withdrawn from rivers and groundwater is used to produce food and other agricultural products. Farm water may include water used in the irrigation of crops or the watering of livestock. Its study is called agricultural hydrology.

Animal-free agriculture, also known as veganic agriculture, stockfree farming or veganic farming, consists of farming methods that do not use animals or animal products.

The environmental impact of agriculture is the effect that different farming practices have on the ecosystems around them, and how those effects can be traced back to those practices. The environmental impact of agriculture varies widely based on practices employed by farmers and by the scale of practice. Farming communities that try to reduce environmental impacts through modifying their practices will adopt sustainable agriculture practices. The negative impact of agriculture is an old issue that remains a concern even as experts design innovative means to reduce destruction and enhance eco-efficiency. Though some pastoralism is environmentally positive, modern animal agriculture practices tend to be more environmentally destructive than agricultural practices focused on fruits, vegetables and other biomass. The emissions of ammonia from cattle waste continue to raise concerns over environmental pollution.

HarvestChoice is a research initiative, which generates information to help guide strategic investments in agriculture aimed at improving the well-being of poor people in Sub-Saharan Africa through more productive and profitable farming. The initiative is coordinated by the International Food Policy Research Institute and the University of Minnesota and is supported by a grant to IFPRI by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Marginal land</span>

Marginal land is land that is of little agricultural or developmental value because crops produced from the area would be worth less than any rent paid for access to the area. Although the term marginal is often used in a subjective sense for less-than-ideal lands, it is fundamentally an economic term that is defined by the local economic context. Thus what constitutes marginal land varies both with location and over time: for example, "a soil profile with a set of specific biophysical characteristics reported as “marginal” in the US corn belt may be one of the better soils available in another context". Changes in product values – such as the ethanol-demand induced spike in corn prices – can result in formerly marginal lands becoming profitable. Marginal lands can therefore be more difficult to delineate as compared to "abandoned crop lands" which reflect more clearly definable landowner-initiated land use changes.

Ecocrop was a database used to determine the suitability of a crop for a specified environment. Developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) it provided information predicting crop viability in different locations and climatic conditions. It also served as a catalog of plants and plant growth characteristics.

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an integrated approach to managing landscapes to help adapt agricultural methods, livestock and crops to the effects of climate change and, where possible, counteract it by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, at the same time taking into account the growing world population to ensure food security. Thus, the emphasis is not simply on carbon farming or sustainable agriculture, but also on increasing agricultural productivity. "CSA ... is in line with FAO’s vision for Sustainable Food and Agriculture and supports FAO’s goal to make agriculture, forestry and fisheries more productive and more sustainable".

Agriculture contributes towards climate change through greenhouse gas emissions and by the conversion of non-agricultural land such as forests into agricultural land. In 2019 the IPCC reported that 13%-21% of anthropogenic greenhouse gasses came specifically from the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses Sector (AFOLU). Emissions from agriculture of nitrous oxide, methane and carbon dioxide make up to half of the greenhouse-gases produced by the overall food industry, or 80% of agricultural emissions. Animal husbandry is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.

A foodprint refers to the environmental pressures created by the food demands of individuals, organizations, and geopolitical entities. Like other forms of ecological footprinting, a foodprint can include multiple parameters to quantify the overall environmental impact of food, including carbon footprinting, water footprinting, and foodshed mapping. Some foodprinting efforts also attempt to capture the social and ethical costs of food production by accounting for dimensions such as farm worker justice or prices received by farmers for goods as a share of food dollars. Environmental advocacy organizations like the Earth Day Network and the Natural Resources Defense Council have publicized the foodprint concept as a way of engaging consumers on the environmental impacts of dietary choices.

References

  1. PIK landuse group. "MAgPIE Mathematical Description" . Retrieved 26 March 2012.
  2. 1 2 Lotze-Campen, H.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A.; Rost, S.; Popp, A.; Lucht, W. (June 2008). "Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach". Agricultural Economics. 39 (3): 325–338. doi:10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00336.x . Retrieved 26 March 2012.
  3. Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bodirsky, B. (August 2010). "Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production". Global Environmental Change. 20 (3): 451–462. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.02.001.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 Schmitz, C.; Biewald, A.; Lotze-Campen, C.; Popp, A.; Dietrich, J.P.; Bordisky, B.; Krause, M.; Weindl, I. (2012). "Trading more food: Implications for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and the food system" (PDF). Global Environmental Change. 22 (1): 189–208. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.013.
  5. Kayatz, Benjamin. "The Price of Land". Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Retrieved 26 March 2012.
  6. Krause, M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A. (August 2009). "Spatially-explicit scenarios on global cropland expansion and available forest land in an integrated modelling framework". Conference Paper.