Merger simulation is a commonly used technique when analyzing potential welfare costs and benefits of mergers between firms. Merger simulation models differ with respect to assumed form of competition that best describes the market (e.g. differentiated Bertrand competition, Cournot competition, auction models, etc.) as well as the structure of the chosen demand system (e.g. linear or log-linear demand, logit, almost ideal demand system (AIDS), etc.) [1]
Farrell and Shapiro (1990) [2] highlighted issues of the Department of Justice’s Merger Guidelines (1984), with its use of Herfindahl-Hirschman indices. The main issues they raised were the base assumptions that:
They sought to instead to model mergers by Cournot oligopoly theory, establishing a series of propositions in both mergers effect on price and welfare. To establish their propositions a series of assumptions and conditions were made:
These conditions favour accuracy of the modelling in markets with limited demand and products that do not have economies of scale. Based on the assumptions, they established 7 propositions relating to price and welfare outcomes of mergers.
The steps in the merger simulation process can be divided into two categories: "front-end" and "back-end" analysis. [3]
1. Estimation of demand before the merger.
2. Specification of parameters in the demand function.
3. Model of the supply side before the merger.
4. Model of the new equilibrium after the merger using the demand and supply models pre-merger. This is done by using the previous functions to calculate the firms' equilibrium price after the merger has happened, and calculating the consequent welfare effects. [4]
The following elements are used to simulate the effects of a merger. [5]
Modelling the estimated demand requires selecting the demand model that best suits consumer behaviour in the industry, and either functional form models (AIDS, PCAIDS) or discrete-form models (Logit, Nested Logit) can be used. Additionally, the demand elasticity of the product(s) and how consumers in the industry select which products they wish to consume will also need to be estimated.
The firm's marginal costs are taken into account, as well as factors that may influence it, such as diseconomies of scale.
The strategic variable(s) the firm would focus on and modify in order to compete with its rivals.
Depending on the state of their competition, firms' objectives may align. For example, firms may have a mutual understanding to not produce too much output as it may decrease their prices.
When carrying out merger simulation, there are three key assumptions to be held: [6]
When assessing the welfare effects of a vertical merger, both the upstream and downstream game effects must be considered. Therefore, it is an extension of the horizontal merger model consisting of five elements. [7]
1. Downstream demand
2. Assumption with respect to the upstream game
3. Assumption with respect to the downstream game
4. Assumption of the timing of moves
5. Marginal Costs
The simulations can then be either econometric or Monte Carlo. Backward induction will be used to find the subgame perfect equilibrium of the simulation because the game will be modelled vertically. [8]
A duopoly is a type of oligopoly where two firms have dominant or exclusive control over a market, and most of the competition within that market occurs directly between them.
Microeconomics is a branch of mainstream economics that studies the behavior of individuals and firms in making decisions regarding the allocation of scarce resources and the interactions among these individuals and firms. Microeconomics focuses on the study of individual markets, sectors, or industries as opposed to the national economy as whole, which is studied in macroeconomics.
An oligopoly is a market in which control over an industry lies in the hands of a few large sellers who own a dominant share of the market. Oligopolistic markets have homogenous products, few market participants, and inelastic demand for the products in those industries. As a result of their significant market power, firms in oligopolistic markets can influence prices through manipulating the supply function. Firms in an oligopoly are also mutually interdependent, as any action by one firm is expected to affect other firms in the market and evoke a reaction or consequential action. As a result, firms in oligopolistic markets often resort to collusion as means of maximising profits.
In economics, specifically general equilibrium theory, a perfect market, also known as an atomistic market, is defined by several idealizing conditions, collectively called perfect competition, or atomistic competition. In theoretical models where conditions of perfect competition hold, it has been demonstrated that a market will reach an equilibrium in which the quantity supplied for every product or service, including labor, equals the quantity demanded at the current price. This equilibrium would be a Pareto optimum.
In microeconomics, supply and demand is an economic model of price determination in a market. It postulates that, holding all else equal, in a competitive market, the unit price for a particular good, or other traded item such as labor or liquid financial assets, will vary until it settles at a point where the quantity demanded will equal the quantity supplied, resulting in an economic equilibrium for price and quantity transacted. The concept of supply and demand forms the theoretical basis of modern economics.
This aims to be a complete article list of economics topics:
In economics, economic equilibrium is a situation in which economic forces such as supply and demand are balanced and in the absence of external influences the values of economic variables will not change. For example, in the standard text perfect competition, equilibrium occurs at the point at which quantity demanded and quantity supplied are equal.
Monopoly profit is an inflated level of profit due to the monopolistic practices of an enterprise.
In economics and commerce, the Bertrand paradox — named after its creator, Joseph Bertrand — describes a situation in which two players (firms) reach a state of Nash equilibrium where both firms charge a price equal to marginal cost ("MC"). The paradox is that in models such as Cournot competition, an increase in the number of firms is associated with a convergence of prices to marginal costs. In these alternative models of oligopoly, a small number of firms earn positive profits by charging prices above cost. Suppose two firms, A and B, sell a homogeneous commodity, each with the same cost of production and distribution, so that customers choose the product solely on the basis of price. It follows that demand is infinitely price-elastic. Neither A nor B will set a higher price than the other because doing so would yield the entire market to their rival. If they set the same price, the companies will share both the market and profits.
Bertrand competition is a model of competition used in economics, named after Joseph Louis François Bertrand (1822–1900). It describes interactions among firms (sellers) that set prices and their customers (buyers) that choose quantities at the prices set. The model was formulated in 1883 by Bertrand in a review of Antoine Augustin Cournot's book Recherches sur les Principes Mathématiques de la Théorie des Richesses (1838) in which Cournot had put forward the Cournot model. Cournot's model argued that each firm should maximise its profit by selecting a quantity level and then adjusting price level to sell that quantity. The outcome of the model equilibrium involved firms pricing above marginal cost; hence, the competitive price. In his review, Bertrand argued that each firm should instead maximise its profits by selecting a price level that undercuts its competitors' prices, when their prices exceed marginal cost. The model was not formalized by Bertrand; however, the idea was developed into a mathematical model by Francis Ysidro Edgeworth in 1889.
Cournot competition is an economic model used to describe an industry structure in which companies compete on the amount of output they will produce, which they decide on independently of each other and at the same time. It is named after Antoine Augustin Cournot (1801–1877) who was inspired by observing competition in a spring water duopoly. It has the following features:
To solve the Bertrand paradox, the Irish economist Francis Ysidro Edgeworth put forward the Edgeworth Paradox in his paper "The Pure Theory of Monopoly", published in 1897.
The Stackelberg leadership model is a strategic game in economics in which the leader firm moves first and then the follower firms move sequentially. It is named after the German economist Heinrich Freiherr von Stackelberg who published Marktform und Gleichgewicht [Market Structure and Equilibrium] in 1934, which described the model. In game theory terms, the players of this game are a leader and a follower and they compete on quantity. The Stackelberg leader is sometimes referred to as the Market Leader.
Market structure, in economics, depicts how firms are differentiated and categorised based on the types of goods they sell (homogeneous/heterogeneous) and how their operations are affected by external factors and elements. Market structure makes it easier to understand the characteristics of diverse markets.
In economics, competition is a scenario where different economic firms are in contention to obtain goods that are limited by varying the elements of the marketing mix: price, product, promotion and place. In classical economic thought, competition causes commercial firms to develop new products, services and technologies, which would give consumers greater selection and better products. The greater the selection of a good is in the market, the lower prices for the products typically are, compared to what the price would be if there was no competition (monopoly) or little competition (oligopoly).
In economics, profit is the difference between revenue that an economic entity has received from its outputs and total costs of its inputs. It is equal to total revenue minus total cost, including both explicit and implicit costs.
The Brander–Spencer model is an economic model in international trade originally developed by James Brander and Barbara Spencer in the early 1980s. The model illustrates a situation where, under certain assumptions, a government can subsidize domestic firms to help them in their competition against foreign producers and in doing so enhances national welfare. This conclusion stands in contrast to results from most international trade models, in which government non-interference is socially optimal.
In oligopoly theory, conjectural variation is the belief that one firm has an idea about the way its competitors may react if it varies its output or price. The firm forms a conjecture about the variation in the other firm's output that will accompany any change in its own output. For example, in the classic Cournot model of oligopoly, it is assumed that each firm treats the output of the other firms as given when it chooses its output. This is sometimes called the "Nash conjecture," as it underlies the standard Nash equilibrium concept. However, alternative assumptions can be made. Suppose you have two firms producing the same good, so that the industry price is determined by the combined output of the two firms. Now suppose that each firm has what is called the "Bertrand Conjecture" of −1. This means that if firm A increases its output, it conjectures that firm B will reduce its output to exactly offset firm A's increase, so that total output and hence price remains unchanged. With the Bertrand Conjecture, the firms act as if they believe that the market price is unaffected by their own output, because each firm believes that the other firm will adjust its output so that total output will be constant. At the other extreme is the Joint-Profit maximizing conjecture of +1. In this case, each firm believes that the other will imitate exactly any change in output it makes, which leads to the firms behaving like a single monopoly supplier.
In microeconomics, the Bertrand–Edgeworth model of price-setting oligopoly looks at what happens when there is a homogeneous product where there is a limit to the output of firms which are willing and able to sell at a particular price. This differs from the Bertrand competition model where it is assumed that firms are willing and able to meet all demand. The limit to output can be considered as a physical capacity constraint which is the same at all prices, or to vary with price under other assumptions.
This glossary of economics is a list of definitions of terms and concepts used in economics, its sub-disciplines, and related fields.