Opinion polls played an important role in the runup to the Kenyan elections of December 2007. A number of institutes published results on the presidential candidates. Nation Media employed the Kenyan Steadman market information company to conduct regular polls, which thus received the widest attention.
Kenya, officially the Republic of Kenya, is a country in Africa with 47 semiautonomous counties governed by elected governors. At 580,367 square kilometres (224,081 sq mi), Kenya is the world's 48th largest country by total area. With a population of more than 52.2 million people, Kenya is the 27th most populous country. Kenya's capital and largest city is Nairobi while its oldest city and first capital is the coastal city of Mombasa. Kisumu City is the third largest city and also an inland port on Lake Victoria. Other important urban centres include Nakuru and Eldoret.
General elections were held in Kenya on 27 December 2007, electing the President, National Assembly and local councils.
The Daily Nation is the highest circulation Kenyan independent newspaper with 170,000 copies.
Polls are a new instrument on the Kenyan political scene. Recent elections had seen some results published which met, however, with widespread scepticism.
The publication of polls in 2007 generated large interest and controversy as they were alternatively welcomed or condemned by parties and observers on the national scene and frequently criticised as having been manipulated by one or the other side. [1] [2] [3]
Generally polls showed in early stages a lead for President Mwai Kibaki and a strong showing of Kalonzo Musyoka on the opposition side.
Mwai Kibaki, C.G.H. is a Kenyan politician who was the third President of Kenya, serving from December 2002 until April 2013.
Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka is a Kenyan politician who was the tenth Vice-President of Kenya from 2008 to 2013. Musyoka served in the government under President Daniel arap Moi and was Minister for Foreign Affairs from 1993 until 1998; subsequently, under President Mwai Kibaki, he was Minister of Foreign Affairs again from 2003 to 2004, then Minister of the Environment from 2004 to 2005. He was an unsuccessful candidate in the 2007 presidential election, after which he was appointed as Vice-President by Kibaki in January 2008.
After realignments in the opposition Raila Odinga had managed to get the support of regional leaders from a multi-tribal background and Musyoka looked largely reduced to his Kamba hometurf. This showed in the polls with Odinga surging ahead.
Raila Amolo Odinga is a Kenyan politician who served as the Prime Minister of Kenya from 2008 to 2013 and Leader of the Opposition since 2013. He was the Member of Parliament (MP) for Langata from 1992 to 2013. He served in the Cabinet of Kenya as Minister of Energy from 2001 to 2002, and as the Minister of Roads, Public Works and Housing from 2003 to 2005. Odinga was appointed High Representative for Infrastructure Development at the African Union Commission in 2018.
The Kamba or Akamba people are a Bantu ethnic group - or tribe - who live in the eastern and south eastern areas of Kenya, formerly Eastern Province of Kenya stretching east from Nairobi to Tsavo and north up to Embu, Kenya. This land is called Ukambani which constitutes of Makueni County, Kitui County and Machakos County and coastal Counties of Kwale, Mombasa and Kilifi. Kambas are also found in parts of Tana River County.
After re-formation on the president's side criticism at Odinga became more pointed and this message seems to have had effect in narrowing the difference between the leading presidential contestants.
Poll date | Kibaki | Musyoka | Odinga | Mudavadi | Ruto | Kenyatta |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
October 2006 [4] | 41% | 20% | 13% | 3% | 5% | |
December 2006 [5] | 42% | 20% | 14% | 3% | 5% | |
March 2007 [6] | 51% | 14% | 17% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
April 2007 [7] | 44.3% | 15.3% | 18.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% |
June 2007 [8] | 45% | 14% | 28% | 4% | 3% | 4% |
July 2007 [9] | 45% | 11% | 25% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
August 2007 [10] | 42% | 11% | 25% | 8% | 6% | 1% |
August 2007 [11] | 47% | 13% | 36% | 1% | 1% | |
September 2007 [12] | 38% | 8% | 47% | |||
13 October 2007 [13] | 37% | 8% | 53% | |||
23 October 2007 [14] | 39% | 8% | 50% | |||
9 November 2007 [15] | 41% | 11% | 45% | |||
21 November 2007 [16] | 41.4% | 14.7% | 40.7% | |||
17 November 2007 [17] | 42% | 11% | 45% | |||
23 November 2007 [18] | 43.3% | 11.4% | 43.6% | |||
7 December 2007 [19] | 42% | 10% | 46% | |||
18 December 2007 [20] | 43% | 10% | 45% |
Province | Kibaki | Odinga | Musyoka | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|
Nairobi | 40% | 44% | 10% | 5% |
Province | Kibaki | Odinga | Musyoka | Undecided | RTA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Central | 79% | 12% | 1% | 4% | – |
Coast | 36% | 48% | 6% | 8% | – |
Eastern | 49% | 34% | 6% | 3% | – |
Nairobi | 37% | 51% | 5% | 4% | – |
North Eastern | 27% | 70% | 3% | 0% | – |
Nyanza | 8% | 85% | 0% | 2% | – |
Rift Valley | 35% | 53% | 3% | 8% | – |
Western | 25% | 65% | 4% | 3% | – |
# of Wins | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Province | Kibaki | Odinga | Musyoka | Undecided | RTA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Central | 89% | 5% | 2% | – | – |
Coast | 36% | 49% | 10% | – | – |
Eastern | 55% | 8% | 36% | – | – |
Nairobi | 43% | 46% | 8% | – | – |
North Eastern | 20% | 77% | 1% | – | – |
Nyanza | 17% | 82% | 0% | – | – |
Rift Valley | 29% | 65% | 4% | – | – |
Western | 29% | 61% | 3% | – | – |
# of Wins | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Province | Kibaki | Odinga | Musyoka | Undecided | RTA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Central | 92.8% | 5.0% | 2.0% | – | – |
Coast | 34.7% | 51.5% | 9.7% | – | – |
Eastern | 48.9% | 6.1% | 43.8% | – | – |
Nairobi | 46.3% | 39.3% | 12.1% | – | – |
North Eastern | 32.2% | 64.4% | 3.4% | – | – |
Nyanza | 11.9% | 85.3% | 1.8% | – | – |
Rift Valley | 39.3% | 55.8% | 3.9% | – | – |
Western | 20.7% | 72.8% | 1.4% | – | – |
# of wins | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Province | Kibaki | Odinga | Musyoka |
---|---|---|---|
Central | 91% | 8% | – |
Coast | 35% | 63% | 10% |
Eastern | 46% | 6% | 44% |
Nairobi | 41% | 47% | – |
North Eastern | 27% | 65% | – |
Nyanza | 19% | 78% | – |
Rift Valley | 36% | 61% | – |
Western | 21% | 69% | – |
# of wins | 2 | 6 | 0 |
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