Opinion polling for the 2022 Latvian parliamentary election

Last updated

In the run-up to the 2022 Latvian parliamentary election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Latvia. Results of such polls are displayed in this list.

Contents

The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2018 Latvian parliamentary election, held on 6 October, to the present day. The next election was held on 1 October 2022. Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

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Saskana
KPV LV, later PCL
JKP
AP!
NA
ZZS
JV
LRA
LKS
PRO
LuK
LPV Opinion polling for Latvian Saeima election, 2022.svg
   Saskaņa
   JKP
   AP!
   NA
   ZZS
   JV
   LRA
   LKS
   PRO
   LuK
   LPV

Vote share

The following are opinion polls conducted for the parliamentary election, measuring the estimated percentage of the vote. Parties in bold successfully pass the 5% electoral threshold to win seats in the Saeima, and the highlighted party is in the lead.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Dec. S AL K AP! NA ZZS JV AS LKS P KuK LPV R S! SV TVS TKL KPP VL LeadGov.Opp.
LTV/SKDS [1] (exit poll)1 Oct 20221,825-3.50.33.55.28.410.922.511.53.28.32.85.31.65.42.31.10.90.40.510.039.658.0
SKDS [2] Sep 20221,825-7.30.33.35.211.311.621.48.44.07.64.34.31.74.12.40.81.40.50.69.841.258.8
Factum [3] 15–20 Sep 20221,40651.38.00.34.66.39.37.022.69.04.88.84.05.01.06.21.40.40.90.20.113.342.857.2
Factum [4] 4–6 Sep 20221,40651.29.00.34.76.910.27.521.99.25.27.33.34.81.15.81.40.50.70.10.111.743.756.3
SKDS [5] Aug 20221,848-9.54.77.912.610.115.17.84.68.83.73.55.52.12.540.359.7
Factum [6] 16–21 Aug 20221,071-9.20.45.18.810.88.620.78.44.27.51.74.81.26.61.10.00.70.10.19.945.454.6
Factum [7] 3–7 Aug 2022878-10.90.25.99.410.57.721.07.73.56.32.24.51.76.11.40.00.60.10.110.146.853
2 Aug 2022The Central Electoral Commission registers the 19 electoral lists that will participate in the election
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Dec. S PCL/AL JKP/K AP! NA ZZS JV LRA/AS LKS P LuK/KuK LPV R S! NST SV OthersLeadGov.Opp.
Factum [8] 20–24 July 20221,156-10.35.710.711.36.820.54.93.86.43.15.01.95.30.31.32.69.248.250.4
SKDS [9] July 20221,81860.210.84.09.013.37.715.75.65.78.14.55.42.45.41.90.52.44257.5
Factum [10] 6–10 July 2022859-10.66.29.012.36.520.33.65.56.82.27.52.53.20.30.92.98.047.849.3
SKDS [11] June 20221,79558.510.36.810.012.28.818.24.63.99.43.84.91.54.80.76.047.252
Factum [12] 27–31 May 20221,122-10.60.16.910.212.88.420.02.97.16.92.64.61.90.30.42.77.249.947
SKDS [13] 13–24 May 20221,81457.911.80.75.99.615.29.517.65.14.37.72.03.41.84.21.12.448.350.5
10 May 2022 LZP and LP leave ZZS and form the "United Latvian List" with LRA
SKDS [14] [15] 22 April – 2 May 20221,81259.910.20.74.67.714.212.818.03.74.87.74.15.33.02.50.73.844.554.8
Factum [16] 26–29 April 2022969-12.41.09.110.312.59.419.22.25.25.93.83.12.30.43.26.751.145.3
Factum [17] 29–31 March 2022832-11.21.66.710.211.910.817.02.65.65.94.75.21.70.64.35.145.849.3
SKDS [18] March 20221,8205811.50.55.39.312.313.216.24.15.48.33.24.31.73.51.23.043.152.6
24 Feb 2022 Beginning of Russian invasion of Ukraine
Factum [19] 23–28 February 20221,325-12.71.16.211.511.69.516.33.63.46.55.74.51.85.63.645.648.8
26 Feb 2022JKP renames itself to "The Conservatives" (K)
SKDS [20] February 20221,81558.217.45.37.212.011.914.14.04.16.73.87.42.24.03.338.657.5
19 Feb 2022LuK renames itself to "For Each and Every One" (KuK)
Factum [21] 1 Jan – 2 Feb 2022637-12.70.86.011.611.79.616.63.73.27.05.94.31.95.03.945.949.1
SKDS [22] January 20221,80557.418.44.98.010.214.313.14.55.15.74.44.72.62.31.85.336.259.7
Factum [23] 1–31 December 20211,410-12.20.86.112.011.59.516.94.13.26.66.44.51.74.64.746.549
SKDS [24] December 20211,81857.019.36.07.811.511.713.63.94.76.55.24.52.42.95.738.958.2
Factum [25] [26] 1–30 Nov 2021866-13.00.85.512.611.49.416.94.93.05.95.44.62.04.73.946.449
SKDS [27] 8–29 Nov 20211,80553.217.85.29.110.513.914.75.05.26.93.24.02.32.33.139.558.3
Factum [28] 1–31 Oct 20211,871-12.60.65.114.111.89.015.93.83.56.46.44.52.24.11.846.949
SKDS [29] October 2021-50.219.91.84.99.210.612.912.84.85.05.34.54.82.41.17.037.561.4
Factum [30] 1 Sep – 1 Oct 20211,170-13.40.76.914.811.98.515.54.02.95.76.13.13.33.20.749.147.7
SKDS [31] September 20211,80660.120.00.74.98.011.413.813.75.24.45.86.14.91.16.23860.9
Factum [32] 27–31 Aug 20211,181-14.61.06.114.011.79.116.93.72.85.75.13.60.94.82.348.746.5
14–28 Aug 2021Two new parties - Latvia First and Republic - are established
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Dec. S KPV LV JKP AP! NA ZZS JV LRA LKS P LuK OthersLeadGov.Opp.
SKDS [33] August 20211,82556.922.10.85.58.912.512.911.95.05.86.35.62.89.238.858.5
Factum [34] 27–31 Jul 20211,181-15.80.65.811.514.411.616.24.13.46.54.16.00.447.946.1
SKDS [35] July 20211,80159.519.01.56.79.412.312.912.85.95.95.05.72.96.141.255.9
SKDS [36] June 20211,79362.619.30.96.08.914.814.911.54.45.36.95.31.84.441.257
4 Jun 2021KPV LV renames itself to "For a Humane Latvia" (PCL)
3 Jun 2021The Saeima approves the government reshuffle, KPV LV officially leaves the government
Factum [37] 26–31 May 20211,089-17.10.67.811.113.312.515.93.53.86.13.35.01.248.746.3
SKDS [38] May 20211,81656.318.31.58.38.614.213.711.83.46.36.65.71.74.144.454
Factum [39] 26–30 Apr 20211,089-15.21.07.412.211.910.116.84.34.16.45.65.11.649.345.7
Latvijas Fakti [40] 19–29 Apr 2021-48.319.02.37.711.012.815.112.84.63.75.45.603.946.653.4
SKDS [41] April 2021-59.720.16.59.413.412.911.73.47.07.57.01.06.74157.9
Factum [42] 26–30 Mar 2021990-13.51.38.313.412.210.715.73.53.25.65.76.82.250.942.2
Latvijas Fakti [43] March 2021-49.321.32.68.910.513.412.612.44.52.85.75.307.947.852.2
SKDS [41] March 2021-54.218.37.29.413.511.811.64.85.47.76.83.54.841.754.8
Factum [44] 1–28 Feb 20211,903-12.01.98.014.611.111.915.13.63.97.04.36.50.550.742.7
Latvijas Fakti [45] February 2021-55.920.51.88.212.910.217.511.64.13.25.04.803.044.755.1
Factum [46] 28–31 Jan 20211,250-11.82.57.514.012.412.313.73.04.16.83.58.30.350.141.5
7 Jan 2021A new party - LuK - is established
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Dec. S KPV LV JKP AP! NA ZZS JV LRA LKS P OthersLeadGov.Opp.
Factum [47] 1–17 Dec 20202,421-1328131313133489Tie4941
SKDS [48] December 202090051.222.13.710.49.411.315.68.05.94.17.62.06.542.855.3
Factum [49] 11–30 Nov 2020817-1519151312134468Tie5141
SKDS [48] November 2020-57.120.31.98.615.114.412.38.85.66.35.11.85.248.849.6
Factum [50] 26–30 Oct 2020853-151917131114346825439
SKDS [51] 9–20 Oct 202088957.919.53.311.115.411.113.59.35.24.85.71.24.150.248.7
Factum [52] 29 Sep – 4 Oct 2020442-15281713915437825538
SKDS [53] 11–22 Sep 202088858.917.33.710.412.910.516.611.25.94.45.11.94.448.749.3
Factum [54] 1–24 Aug 2020637-152916131015345715537
SKDS [55] 7–20 Aug 202090056.421.63.48.213.89.219.011.76.72.72.51.92.646.352.5
Factum [56] 8–31 Jul 20201,975-1629151110164386Tie5341
SKDS [57] July 202088455.527.94.07.010.112.315.010.55.23.84.00.412.943.955.9
Factum [58] 1–30 Jun 20201,461-152915111017538725442
SKDS [59] June 202089151.625.03.58.111.210.917.29.95.44.33.31.27.843.655.2
SKDS [60] 23 May – 2 June 202090250.526.14.07.39.910.916.012.15.14.63.01.010.144.254.8
Factum [61] 18–31 May 20201,182-16291311918438725340
Factum [62] 7–26 Apr 20201,182-1721114121116546415543
Factum [63] 4–28 Mar 20201,994-1821313121213547455346
SKDS [64] March 202090354.127.54.18.910.410.816.010.85.42.82.80.711.54554.5
Factum [65] 24–28 Feb 2020783-1831112121314546345246
SKDS [66] February 202087350.824.22.68.110.610.615.612.66.53.94.31.08.644.554.5
Factum [67] 28 Jan – 1 Feb 2020684-2121111121016537355246
SKDS [68] January 202090056.224.23.610.99.611.215.510.95.24.43.21.48.746.252.5
Factum [69] 18–31 Dec 20191,153-2021210141014556365246
SKDS [70] 30 Nov – 12 Dec 201988754.124.83.310.98.512.814.812.63.74.14.40.210.048.151.8
Factum [71] 21–24 Nov 2019966-2031310121016446345444
SKDS [72] 2–12 Nov 201988455.120.35.49.810.115.913.611.75.13.63.804.452.946.4
Factum [73] 15–22 Oct 2019966-203149111115446355245
SKDS [74] 5–16 Oct 201990956.823.14.512.09.313.114.311.63.93.95.00.98.850.550.2
Factum [75] 27–30 Sep 2019489-1921510101017545325543
SKDS [76] 26 Aug – 18 Sep 201990061.823.54.511.79.914.413.613.44.03.41.69.153.944.5
Factum [77] 27–30 Aug 20191,152-1841610111117444215841
SKDS [78] August 2019-63.325.44.110.09.811.413.113.94.63.93.30.511.549.250.3
Factum [79] 22–29 Jul 2019989-1821510151015464235742
SKDS [80] July 2019-57.925.42.88.69.810.913.114.76.24.03.60.910.746.852.3
Factum [81] 26–30 Jun 2019860-1741012159176461Tie5842
SKDS [82] 7–17 Jun 201989163.125.05.47.310.812.210.016.64.82.54.80.68.452.347.1
Factum [81] 1–28 May 20191,079-174101016816447415640
SKDS [83] May 2019-64.827.03.712.29.113.313.69.46.22.32.90.313.447.752
Factum [84] 1–30 April 20191,236-2041510121110637355147
SKDS [85] April 2019-64.831.54.513.89.010.711.09.34.82.62.40.517.847.352.3
Factum [86] March 2019--1541311141011656415342
SKDS [87] March 201987361.228.96.713.110.18.212.48.74.72.63.80.815.846.852.4
SKDS [88] February 201987261.229.75.514.99.29.98.910.23.83.14.20.614.849.749.7
23 Jan 2019The Kariņš cabinet is formed and wins the Saeima confidence vote
SKDS [89] 11–23 Jan 201990668.425.410.417.79.811.311.85.87.77.75537.2
SKDS [90] 1–12 Dec 201890071.228.914.612.58.79.19.35.94.23.43.20.114.350.849
SKDS [91] 3–15 Nov 201883371.226.814.415.09.98.79.46.93.82.42.60.111.854.945
SKDS [92] 13–23 Oct 201890075.425.515.313.411.811.17.25.85.61.92.30.310.257.442.5
2018 election 6 Oct 2018-54.619.814.313.612.011.09.96.74.23.22.62.75.557.639.7

Turnout

Graph of predict turnout polls
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout
Factum23-28 Feb 20211,49950.3
Factum1 Jan-2 Feb 202134449.7
Factum1-31 Dec 202181848.5
Factum1-30 Nov 202150848.7
Factum1-31 Oct 20211,14750.2
Factum1 Sep-1 Oct 202167950.9
Factum27-31 Aug 202171052.4
Factum27-31 Jul 202161254.1
Factum26-31 May 202157652.1
Factum26-30 Apr 202168050.6
2018 election 6 Oct 2018-54.6

See also

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References

  1. "Vēlētāju aptauja: Saeimas vēlēšanās uzvarējušas JV, Apvienotais saraksts un ZZS".
  2. LTV Panorāma [@ltvpanorama] (24 September 2022). "Paši jaunākie reitingu dati rāda, ka vēlētāju simpātijas ir sadalījušās ļoti plaši starp 19 politisko partiju un apvienību piedāvātajiem kandidātu sarakstiem. Vēlētāju aptauju pēc LTV pasūtījuma veicis tirgus un sabiedriskās domas pētījumu centrs SKDS. t.co/xJeyJtx4kt t.co/DlnpMM3MlR" [The most recent rating data show that voters' sympathies are very widely divided between the lists of candidates proposed by 19 political parties and associations. The market and public opinion research center SKDS conducted the voter survey on the order of LTV.] (Tweet) (in Latvian). Archived from the original on 13 December 2022. Retrieved 26 December 2022 via Twitter.
  3. "Reitingi". reitingi.factum.lv (in Latvian). Archived from the original on 11 May 2021. Retrieved 25 September 2022.
  4. 📊 Factum Interactive [@Interactive_LV] (9 September 2022). "❗️ Sarakstu reitingi #vēlēšanas2022 Lielākās izmaiņas 2 mēnešu laikā: 🔺 Apvienotais saraksts (+5,6), Stabilitātei (+2,6) 🔻 LPV (-2,7), NA (-2,1), A/PAR (-2,1) Secība kopš iepriekšējās aptaujas: 🔺 AS no 6.vietas uz 3.vietu 🔻 A/PAR no 4.vietas uz 7.vietu t.co/eIhHkvfRB7" [❗️ List ratings #election2022 Biggest changes in 2 months: 🔺 Combined list (+5.6), Stability (+2.6) 🔻 LPV (-2.7), NA (-2.1), A/PAR (- 2,1) Sequence since the previous survey: 🔺 AS from 6th place to 3rd place 🔻 A/PAR from 4th place to 7th place] (Tweet) (in Latvian). Archived from the original on 12 September 2022. Retrieved 26 December 2022 via Twitter.
  5. LTV Panorāma [@ltvpanorama] (30 August 2022). "Partiju reitingi: Saeimā izredzes iekļūt 7 līdz 12 sarakstiem. t.co/Q3Athn8K29 t.co/INge0fO3rC" [Party ratings: 7 to 12 lists have a chance of entering the Saeima.] (Tweet) (in Latvian). Archived from the original on 30 August 2022. Retrieved 26 December 2022 via Twitter.
  6. Europe Elects [@EuropeElects] (22 August 2022). "Latvia, Factum Interactive poll: JV-EPP: 21% NA-ECR: 11% S-S&D: 9% (-2) AP!-RE: 9% ZZS~EPP|RE|S&D: 9% (+1) AS~EPP|RE|G/EFA: 8% P-G/EFA: 8% (+2) S!-*: 7% (+1) K→EPP: 5% (-1) ... +/- vs. 3–7 August 2022 Fieldwork: 16–21 August 2022 Sample size: 1,071 ➤ t.co/UCfd3rHFBF t.co/nIM4h6FGba" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 22 August 2022. Retrieved 26 December 2022 via Twitter.
  7. "ReTV un Factum: Partiju trijniekā JV, Saskaņa un NA". ReTV (in Latvian). 8 August 2022. Retrieved 8 August 2022.
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  9. "Party ratings in July still show plenty of floating voters". LSM. 4 August 2022. Retrieved 4 August 2022.
  10. "Jaunākie "Factum" un ReTV Ziņu dienesta partiju reitingi". ReTV (in Latvian). 11 July 2022. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
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  14. Europe Elects [@EuropeElects] (18 May 2022). "Latvia, SKDS poll: JV-EPP: 18% (+2) NA-ECR: 14% (+2) ZZS~EPP|RE|G/EFA: 13% S-S&D: 10% (-2) AP!-RE: 8% (-1) P~G/EFA: 8% LPV-*: 5% (+1) LKS-G/EFA: 5% (-1) K→EPP: 5% ... +/- vs. March 2022 Fieldwork: 22 April-2 May 2022 Sample size: 1,812 ➤ t.co/UCfd3rHFBF t.co/k6tAaR3GSX" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 18 May 2022. Retrieved 26 December 2022 via Twitter.
  15. "Latest party ratings see New Unity, National Alliance gathering momentum in Latvia". LSM. 18 May 2022. Retrieved 18 May 2022.
  16. "Apkopoti "Factum" aprīļa aptaujas rezultāti par partiju popularitāti". ReTV (in Latvian). 2 May 2022. Retrieved 2 May 2022.
  17. 📊 Factum Interactive [@Interactive_LV] (5 April 2022). "📒 Partiju reitingi - Marts 2022 Lielākās izmaiņas: 🔼 LKS (+2.2), ZZS (+1.3) 🔽 Saskaņa (-1.5), LRA (-1.0), K un K (-1.0) t.co/cAJkD4csIs #partijas #reitingi t.co/XFNvmFRDp3" [📒 Party ratings - March 2022 Biggest changes: 🔼 LKS (+2.2), ZZS (+1.3) 🔽 Harmony (-1.5), LRA (-1.0), K and K (-1.0) #party #rankings] (Tweet) (in Latvian). Archived from the original on 6 October 2022. Retrieved 26 December 2022 via Twitter.
  18. "Partiju reitingi pēc Krievijas iebrukuma Ukrainā: "Saskaņa" zaudē līderpozīciju, pieaug atbalsts varas partijām". LSM (in Latvian). 7 April 2022. Retrieved 7 April 2022.
  19. 📊 Factum Interactive [@Interactive_LV] (7 March 2022). "Jaunākie partiju reitingi Februāris 2022 #partijas #reitingi t.co/1piUSdLiog" [Latest party ratings February 2022 #partijas #reingi] (Tweet) (in Latvian). Archived from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 26 December 2022 via Twitter.
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  22. "Jaunākie politisko partiju reitingi: pieaug atbalsts ZZS, nedaudz sarūk "Saskaņai" un NA". LSM (in Latvian). 19 February 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2022.
  23. 📊 Factum Interactive [@Interactive_LV] (2 January 2022). "📈 Saeimas reitingi 12/2021 🎖️ Decembra izclinieks: LuK (+1,0) Izmaiņas 2021: ⬆️ Jaunā Vienotība (+3,6) ⬇️ ZZS (-3,1), JKP (-2,0), PRO (-1,8), A/PAR (-1,4), NA (-1,1), LKS (-1,1) Vairāk: www.reitingi/factum.lv #reitingi #saeima #partijas t.co/A6abHQXLVe" [📈 Saeima ratings 12/2021 🎖️ December final: LuK (+1.0) Changes in 2021: ⬆️ New Unity (+3.6) ⬇️ ZZS (-3.1), JKP (-2.0), PRO (-1 ,8), A/PAR (-1.4), NA (-1.1), LKS (-1.1) More: www.reitingi/factum.lv #reitingi #saeima #partijas co/A6abHQXLVe] (Tweet) (in Latvian). Archived from the original on 6 January 2022. Retrieved 26 December 2022 via Twitter.
  24. "Partiju reitingi decembrī: mazinājies neizlēmušo balsotāju skaits". LSM (in Latvian). 30 December 2021. Retrieved 1 January 2022.
  25. 📊 Factum Interactive [@Interactive_LV] (2 December 2021). "📊 Partiju reitingi novembrī Lielākās izmaiņas: 🔼 JV (+1,6), LRA (+1,3) 🔽 ZZS (-2,6), A/PAR (-1,1) t.co/U5uXIXumVg" [📊 Party ratings in November Biggest changes: 🔼 JV (+1.6), LRA (+1.3) 🔽 ZZS (-2.6), A/PAR (-1.1)] (Tweet) (in Latvian). Archived from the original on 11 December 2022. Retrieved 26 December 2022 via Twitter.
  26. 📊 Factum Interactive [@Interactive_LV] (2 January 2022). "KĻŪDAS LABOJUMS! Gatavojot jaunākos reitingus, atklājās, ka novembra datos pieļauta kļūda un ZZS norādīts zemāks reitings. Attiecīgi arī citiem dati precizēti. Jāatvainojas @ZZS_, sarakstam ar citu vidū stabilākajiem atbalstītājiem, kā arī tiem, kas seko datiem. t.co/FCeD1Pfzjb" [BUG FIX! While preparing the latest ratings, it was discovered that an error was made in the November data and a lower rating was indicated in ZZS. Accordingly, the data for others has also been clarified. Apologies to @ZZS_, the list of the most stable supporters among others, as well as those who follow the data.] (Tweet) (in Latvian). Archived from the original on 7 October 2022. Retrieved 26 December 2022 via Twitter.
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