Opinion polling for the 2023 Guatemalan general election

Last updated

In the run up to the Guatemalan general election scheduled to take place on 25 June 2023, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Guatemala. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Contents

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded.

First round

Graphical summary

Local regression of all polls conducted. 2023 Guatemalan presidential polls.svg
Local regression of all polls conducted.

Official campaign polling

The table below contains polls conducted after the official start of the campaign period in March 2023.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample size Arévalo
Semilla 		Castillo
VIVA 		Conde
Vamos 		Mulet
Cabal 		Pineda
PC 		Ríos
Valor–PU 		Rivera
Victory 		Torres
UNE 		Villacorta
VOS 		OthersNo one
2023 general election 25 June 2023—15.5%9.4%10.4%8.8%—8.7%3.3%21.1%5.6%17.2%—
Carlos Pineda [1] 21 Jun 2023—6.7%4.4%4.5%17.9%—16.1%2.4%16.6%13.8%14.3% [lower-alpha 1] 3.4%
Espacio Muestral [2] 16–19 Jun 20231,200———15.5%—19.1%—17.8%11.4%36.2%
C&E Research [3] 13 Jun 2023400—1.0%—21.0%—22.0%1.0%23.0%9.0%23.0%—
Grupo Impacto 360 [4] 9–12 Jun 2023900———16.8%—25.5%—21.5%—17.3%18.9%
Prodatos / Prensa Libre [5] 5–14 Jun 20231,2022.9%5.2%5.8%13.4%—9.1%5.3%21.3%5.2%18.3% [lower-alpha 2] 13.5%
ConDatos [6] Jun 20238406.8%4.3%5.5%13.6%—11.1%5.0%13.9%11.3%19.1% [lower-alpha 3] 9.4%
TResearch International [7] 31 May–6 Jun 20231,004——8.3%16.0%—19.8%—19.2%1.4%19.2%—
4.6%2.1%2.5%11.9%14.7%17.3%1.6%15.9%—22.1% [lower-alpha 4] 7.6%
19 May 2023 Carlos Pineda's candidacy was suspended by the courts [8] [9]
Grupo Impacto 360 [10] 17–20 May 2023900———14.6%20.1%22.9%—17.9%—13.2%11.3%
Innovem / La Voz de Xela [11] 16–21 May 20238,1760.7%0.4%2.9%8.0%16.5%10.0%1.2%20.0%1.5%7.5% [lower-alpha 5] 31.3%
CID Gallup / Con Criterio [12] 10–20 May 20231,204—2.0%4.0%14.0%22.0%16.0%2.0%20.0%2.0%11.0%7.0%
—2.0%4.0%21.0%—19.0%2.0%23.0%2.0%12.0%16.0%
TResearch International [13] 3–9 May 20231,000——2.3%16.3%20.9%19.6%—17.4%4.1%12.3%7.1%
Massive Caller [14] May 20231,000——3.8%13.5%19.8%8.6%—5.2%—17.2%31.9%
TResearch International [15] 26 Apr–2 May 20231,000——3.4%17.5%18.0%19.2%—18.4%4.0%13.7%5.7%
Nuestro Diario [16] 19–26 Apr 20231,7232.0%—2.4%10.4%28.3%10.0%3.3%10.3%4.7%19.0%11.6%
C&E Research [17] 16–22 Apr 20232,400—1.6%3.4%11.1%9.5%14.3%1.0%16.5%—8.8% [lower-alpha 6] 33.2%
1.0%0.9%4.6%11.5%9.5%13.5%1.7%17.5%—15.0% [lower-alpha 7] 24.8%
Prodatos / Prensa Libre [18] 14–23 Apr 20231,2020.7%1.8%5.0%10.1%23.1%9.2%3.4%19.5%3.1%17.8% [lower-alpha 8] 6.3%
TResearch International [19] 17 Apr 2023———4.5%19.1%10.2%22.1%—17.8%3.9%15.2%7.2%
Massive Caller [20] Apr 20231,000——3.2%14.1%11.3%13.5%—6.9%—15.8%35.2%
TResearch International [21] 8–12 Mar 20231,000——4.7%16.5%8.2%23.2%—17.7%4.9%13.4%11.4%

Sub-national polling

Quetzaltenango

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeClavería
My Family		 Conde
Vamos 		Mulet
Cabal 		Ríos
Valor–PU 		Torres
UNE 		Villacorta
VOS 		OthersNo one
Innovem / La Voz de Xela [11] 16–21 May 2023—9.6%7.2%12.1%15.7%20.5%7.2%27.7% [lower-alpha 9] —

Pre-campaign polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample size Arzú
Podemos 		Cabrera
MLP 		Mulet
Cabal 		Torres
UNE 		Ríos
Valor–PU 		OthersNo one
Massive Caller [22] 10 March 20231,000——13.5%8.9%14.3%28.8% [lower-alpha 10] 34.5%
CID Gallup [23] 24 Jan–4 Feb 20231,20013%7%10%20%21%15% [lower-alpha 11] 14%
Massive Caller [24] Feb 20231,0004.8%10.5%13.6%7.5%14.6%13.4%35.6%
Massive Caller [25] 7 Jan 20231,0006.2%11.3%13.4%7.0%14.4%13.4% [lower-alpha 12] 34.3%
Massive Caller [26] Dec 20221,0003.6%8.8%14.5%6.0%13.1%16.2% [lower-alpha 13] 37.8%
CID Gallup [27] Dec 2022–9%5%4%14%16%12%40%
Massive Caller [28] Nov 20221,0004.6%7.1%15.7%5.4%14.1%17.3% [lower-alpha 14] 34.3%
CID Gallup / Con Criterio [29] 9 Oct 20221,2028.0%6.0%11.0%14.0%22.0%21.0% [lower-alpha 15] 18.0%
Massive Caller [30] 9 Oct 20221,0005.1%9.2%14.1%5.8%15.5%12.0% [lower-alpha 16] 38.3%
C&E Research [31] 28 Sep 202260015.0%14.0%11.0%21.0%32.0%7.0% [lower-alpha 17] N/A
Massive Caller [32] Sep 20221,0004.8%11.4%13.3%5.6%14.9%12.8% [lower-alpha 18] 37.2%
J. Napolitan y Asociados [33] 5–9 Sep 20221,80011.2%5.2%6.5%14.9%16.4%13.5% [lower-alpha 19] 32.3%
Datum [33] 29–31 Aug 20221,2006.0%8.0%9.0%12.0%14%20% [lower-alpha 20] 31%
C&E Research [34] 3 Jul 20225857.0%5.0%16.0%29.0%31.0%12.0% [lower-alpha 21] N/A
TResearch International [35] 3–5 May 20221,0005.2%5.6%10.3%13.5%25.2%40.2%

Second round

Official campaign polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample size Arévalo
Semilla 		Torres
UNE 		Blank/ Null
Second round 20 August 2023—60.9%39.1%—
Prodatos / Prensa Libre [36] 10–14 August 20231,20064.9%35.1%—
53.6%29.0%17.4%
CID Gallup [37] 4–13 August 20231,81964.0%36.0%—
CID Gallup [38] 18–27 July 20231,24263.0%37.0%—
Innovem [39] 20–26 July 20233,77337.8%45.0%17.2%

Favorable or unfavorable opinions

Favorable opinions

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample size Cifuentes
Valor–PU 		Conde
Vamos 		Mulet
Cabal 		Pineda
PC 		Ríos
Valor–PU 		Torres
UNE 		Villacorta
VOS
TResearch International [21] 8–12 Mar 20231,0002.4%5.6%21.6%12.4%25.1%19.2%19.2%

Most favorite for president

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample size Cifuentes
Valor–PU 		Conde
Vamos 		Mulet
Cabal 		Pineda
PC 		Ríos
Valor–PU 		Torres
UNE 		Villacorta
VOS
TResearch International [21] 8–12 Mar 20231,0001.2%4.1%14.7%9.8%19.1%13.8%12.3%

Perception of triumph

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample size Conde
Vamos 		Mulet
Cabal 		Pineda
PC 		Ríos
Valor–PU 		Torres
UNE 		Villacorta
VOS 		OthersNo one
TResearch International [21] 8–12 Mar 20231,0003.5%14.9%5.9%23.4%19.8%4.2%10.0%18.1%

Notes

  1. ↑ ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 3.2%
    ▌ Espada (PR): 1.6%
    ▌ Farchi (Blue): 1.5%
    ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 1.3%
    ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 1.0%
    ▌ Arredondo (CREO): 1.0%
    ▌ Guzmán (PPN): 1.0%
    ▌ Trujillo (Change): 0.8%
    ▌ Talamonti (UR): 0.8%
    ▌ Peña (Elephant): 0.8%
    ▌ Mérida (PHG): 0.4%
    ▌ Lam (PIN): 0.4%
    ▌ Clavería (MF): 0.3%
    ▌ Morales (FCN): 0.2%
  2. ↑ ▌ Espada (PR): 2.3%
    ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 2.3%
    ▌ Guzmán (PPN): 2.1%
    ▌ Clavería (MF): 1.8%
    ▌ Farchi (Blue): 1.8%
    ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 1.4%
    ▌ Morales (FCN): 1.3%
    ▌ Talamonti (UR): 1.3%
    ▌ Peña (Elephant): 1.3%
    ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 1.1%
    ▌ Mérida (PHG): 0.9%
    ▌ Arredondo (CREO): 0.3%
    ▌ Lam (PIN): 0.3%
    ▌ Trujillo (Change): 0.1%
  3. ↑ ▌ Espada (PR): 5.2%
    ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 3.9%
    ▌ Farchi (Blue): 3.5%
    ▌ Peña (Elephant): 1.8%
    ▌ Talamonti (UR): 1.5%
    ▌ Morales (FCN): 1.3%
    Others: 1.9%
  4. ↑ ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 1.8%
    ▌ Farchi (Blue): 1.2%
    ▌ Peña (Elephant): 0.6%
    ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 0.4%
    ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 0.3%
    ▌ Mérida (PHG): 0.3%
    Others: 17.5%
  5. ↑ ▌ Farchi (Blue): 1.2%
    ▌ Espada (PR): 1.0%
    ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 0.9%
    ▌ Talamonti (UR): 0.7%
    ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 0.6%
    ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 0.5%
    ▌ Clavería (MF): 0.5%
    ▌ Guzmán (PPN): 0.5%
    ▌ Trujillo (Change): 0.4%
    ▌ Morales (FCN): 0.3%
    ▌ Mérida (PHG): 0.3%
    ▌ Lam (PIN): 0.3%
    ▌ Peña (Elephant): 0.2%
    ▌ Arredondo (CREO): 0.1%
    Others: 0.1%
  6. ↑ ▌ Espada (PR): 1.0%
    ▌ Farchi (Blue): 1.0%
    ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 0.5%
    Others: 6.9%
  7. ↑ ▌ Morales (FCN): 1.5%
    ▌ Mérida (PHG): 1.5%
    ▌ Espada (PR): 1.4%
    ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 1.2%
    ▌ Arredondo (CREO): 1.1%
    ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 0.9%
    ▌ Talamonti (UR): 0.8%
    ▌ Farchi (Blue): 0.8%
    ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 0.7%
    ▌ Peña (Elephant): 0.6%
    ▌ Trujillo (Change): 0.5%
    ▌ Lam (PIN): 0.2%
    ▌ Guzmán (PPN): 0.0%
    ▌ Clavería (MF): 0.0%
    Others: 3.7%
  8. ↑ ▌ Morales (FCN): 2.2%
    ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 1.9%
    ▌ Arredondo (CREO): 1.9%
    ▌ Farchi (Blue): 1.7%
    ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 1.6%
    ▌ Guzmán (PPN): 1.4%
    ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 1.3%
    ▌ Talamonti (UR): 1.2%
    ▌ Mérida (PHG): 1.0%
    ▌ Peña (Elephant): 1.0%
    ▌ Espada (PR): 1.0%
    ▌ Clavería (MF): 1.0%
    ▌ Trujillo (Change): 0.7%
    ▌ Lam (PIN): 0.0%
  9. ↑ ▌ Peña (Elephant): 6.0%
    ▌ Farchi (Blue): 3.6%
    ▌ Mérida (PHG): 3.6%
    ▌ Rivera (Victory): 3.6%
    ▌ Pineda (PC): 3.6%
    ▌ Arévalo (Semilla): 2.4%
    ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 1.2%
    ▌ Espada (PR): 1.2%
    ▌ Guzmán (PPN): 1.2%
    ▌ Castillo (VIVA): 1.2%
  10. ↑ Manuel Conde Orellana: 6.1%, Álvaro Trujillo: 3.0%, others: 19.7%
  11. ↑ Carlos Pineda: 3%, Rafael Espada 2%, others: 10%
  12. ↑ Carlos Pineda: 4.3%, others: 9.1%
  13. ↑ Carlos Pineda: 3.2%, others: 13.0%
  14. ↑ Carlos Pineda: 5.4%, others: 11.9%
  15. ↑ Neto Bran: 7.0%, Manuel Conde: 4.0%, Manuel Villacorta: 2.0%, Rafael Espada: 2.0%, Ricardo Méndez: 2.0%, Carlos Pineda: 1.0%, Amílcar Rivera: 1.0%, Julio Rivera: 1.0%, Isaac Farchi: 1.0%, others: 1.0%
  16. ↑ Carlos Pineda: 2.6%, others: 9.4%
  17. ↑ Neto Bran: 7.0%
  18. ↑ Carlos Pineda: 4.4%, others: 8.4%
  19. ↑ Neto Bran: 4.2%, Manuel Villacorta: 2.1%, others: 7.2%
  20. ↑ Manuel Villacorta: 7.0%, Oscar R. Castañeda: 5.0%, Manuel Conde: 3.0%, Rafael Espada: 3.0%, Ricardo Sagastume: 2.0%
  21. ↑ Neto Bran: 3.0%, others: 9.0%

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References

  1. ↑ "Estamos a 4 días de las elecciones y este es el panorama, el futuro de Guatemala está en nuestras manos". TikTok (in Spanish). 21 June 2023. Retrieved 21 June 2023.
  2. ↑ "Encuesta Presidencial Guatemala Junio 2023". Twitter (in Spanish). 21 June 2023. Retrieved 21 June 2023.
  3. ↑ "GUATEMALA. ELECCIÓN PRESIDENCIAL 2023.14 de junio 2023". C&E Research (in Spanish). 15 June 2023. Retrieved 15 June 2023.
  4. ↑ "ELECCIONES GUATEMALA 2023" (PDF) (in Spanish). Grupo Impacto 360. 15 June 2023.
  5. ↑ "Torres, Mulet y Ríos son los candidatos presidenciales que acaparan la intención de voto, según la Encuesta Libre 2023 (y estos son los resultados)". Prensa Libre (in Spanish). 22 June 2023. Retrieved 22 June 2023.
  6. ↑ "Encuesta presidenciales Guatemala junio 2023 (CONDATOS)" (in Spanish). ConDatos. 15 June 2023.
  7. ↑ "JUN/23 GUATEMALA: ASÍ VAN..." TResearch International (in Spanish). 6 June 2023.
  8. ↑ "Sala ampara a partido Cambio en proceso contra Prosperidad Ciudadana y suspendería candidatura de Carlos Pineda, quien anuncia apelación" (in Spanish). Prensa Libre. 19 May 2023.
  9. ↑ "Elecciones Generales 2023: Los cuatro supuestos errores que le costarían la campaña a Carlos Pineda y 218 candidatos más" (in Spanish). Prensa Libre. 19 May 2023.
  10. ↑ "ELECCIONES GUATEMALA 2023" (PDF) (in Spanish). Grupo Impacto 360. 22 May 2023.
  11. 1 2 "Lee el diario digital del jueves 25 de mayo #1480" (in Spanish). La Voz de Xela. 25 May 2023.
  12. ↑ "#NuevaEncuesta: sin Pineda en la papeleta, Mulet gana más votos que las candidatas de la UNE y VALOR 2023". Con Criterio (in Spanish). 24 May 2023. Retrieved 24 May 2023.
  13. ↑ "La carrera presidencial se mantiene abierta, aunque en nueva encuesta Carlos Pineda superó por primera vez a Zury Ríos" (in Spanish). República. 19 May 2023.
  14. ↑ "Compartimos nuestra medición de intención de voto para elegir #Presidente en #Guatemala". Twitter (in Spanish). 8 May 2023.
  15. ↑ "GUATEMALA, ENCUESTA PRESIDENCIAL". TResearch International (in Spanish). 4 May 2023. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  16. ↑ "Estos son los resultados del sondeo de preferencia de lectores de Nuestro Diario". Soy502 (in Spanish). 15 May 2023. Retrieved 7 June 2023.
  17. ↑ "GUATEMALA. ELECCIÓN PRESIDENCIAL 2023. 03 de mayo 2023". C&E Research (in Spanish). 3 May 2023. Retrieved 10 May 2023.
  18. ↑ "Encuesta elecciones Guatemala 2023: Carlos Pineda y Sandra Torres lideran intención de voto entre candidatos presidenciales". Prensa Libre (in Spanish). 1 May 2023. Retrieved 1 May 2023.
  19. ↑ "GUATEMALA: ASÍ VAN RUMBO AL 2023". DZ Enterprises (in Spanish). 17 April 2023. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  20. ↑ Epicentro GT (10 April 2023). "Según una encuesta de Massive Caller, la intención de voto para Presidente de Guatemala, coloca en primer lugar a Edmond Mulet con 14.1 %, seguido de Zury Rios con 13.5 %, mientras que para alcalde capitalino, se observa como favorito al actual jefe edil, Ricardo Quiñonez con 31 %". Facebook (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  21. 1 2 3 4 @CarlosPennaC (14 March 2023). "GUATEMALA: ASÍ VAN RUMBO AL 2023". TResearch (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 March 2023.
  22. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO PARA ELECCIÓN DE PRESIDENTE EN GUATEMALA" [INTENT TO VOTE FOR THE ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT IN GUATEMALA](PDF). MassiveCaller (in Spanish). 7 March 2023. Retrieved 10 March 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  23. ↑ "CID Gallup / Publicaciones". www.cidgallup.com. Retrieved 15 February 2023.
  24. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO PARA ELECCIÓN DE PRESIDENTE EN GUATEMALA" [INTENT TO VOTE FOR THE ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT IN GUATEMALA](PDF). MassiveCaller (in Spanish). 10 October 2022. Retrieved 11 February 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  25. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO PARA ELECCIÓN DE PRESIDENTE EN GUATEMALA" [INTENT TO VOTE FOR THE ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT IN GUATEMALA](PDF). MassiveCaller (in Spanish). 10 October 2022. Retrieved 11 February 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  26. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO PARA ELECCIÓN DE PRESIDENTE EN GUATEMALA" [INTENT TO VOTE FOR THE ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT IN GUATEMALA](PDF). MassiveCaller (in Spanish). 10 October 2022. Retrieved 11 February 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  27. ↑ "Zury Ríos Campaigns to Lead Guatemala's Faltering Democracy". Americas Quarterly . 11 January 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  28. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO PARA ELECCIÓN DE PRESIDENTE EN GUATEMALA" [INTENT TO VOTE FOR THE ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT IN GUATEMALA](PDF). MassiveCaller (in Spanish). 10 October 2022. Retrieved 11 February 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  29. ↑ ConCriterio [@concriteriogt] (10 October 2022). "Hablamos con Roberto Haug, director Regional @cidgallup ➡️ Ficha técnica: Estudio de Opinión Pública No.96, septiembre 2022 de @cidgallup. Entrevistas a 1,202 ciudadanos mayores de 18 años, residentes en el país. Entrevista telefónica, margen de error de ±2.78 puntos como máximo t.co/ehVaAXDwMg" [We spoke with Roberto Haug, Regional Director @cidgallup ➡️ Technical file: Public Opinion Study No.96, September 2022 by @cidgallup. Interviews with 1,202 citizens over the age of 18, residing in the country. Telephone interview, margin of error of ±2.78 points maximum.] (Tweet) (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 15 October 2022. Retrieved 4 December 2022– via Twitter.
  30. ↑ MassiveCaller [@MassiveCaller] (10 October 2022). "Compartimos nuestra medición de intención de voto para elegir Presidente en #Guatemala 🇬🇹 Únete a nuestros grupos 🟢WHATSAPP: t.co/BjkzHjo2TG……… 🔵TELEGRAM: t.co/iHqZ6xRy9h t.co/dUnxmeU2Xf" [We share our vote intention measurement to elect President in #Guatemala 🇬🇹 Join our groups.] (Tweet) (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 15 October 2022. Retrieved 4 December 2022– via Twitter.
  31. ↑ Elections, C&E Campaigns & (28 September 2022). "GUATEMALA. Encuesta rumbo a la elección presidencial y municipal 2023". ceonline (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 December 2022.
  32. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO PARA ELECCIÓN DE PRESIDENTE EN GUATEMALA" [INTENT TO VOTE FOR THE ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT IN GUATEMALA](PDF). MassiveCaller (in Spanish). 10 October 2022. Retrieved 11 February 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  33. 1 2 "Elecciones Guatemala 2023: dos encuestas preelectorales dan ventaja a Zury Ríos y Sandra Torres". 26 September 2022. Archived from the original on 26 September 2022. Retrieved 4 December 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  34. ↑ "Careo" (in Spanish). 11 July 2022. Archived from the original (WEBP) on 11 July 2022. Retrieved 4 December 2022.
  35. ↑ "Intención De Voto Candidatos". 17 August 2022. Archived from the original (PNG) on 17 August 2022. Retrieved 4 December 2022.
  36. ↑ "Encuesta Libre 2023: Bernardo Arévalo supera a Sandra Torres en intención de voto para la segunda vuelta". Prensa Libre (in Spanish). 16 August 2023. Retrieved 16 August 2023.
  37. ↑ "SEGUNDA ENCUESTA NACIONAL (SEGUNDA VUELTA)" (PDF). Fundación Libertad y Desarrollo (in Spanish). 16 August 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on 16 August 2023.
  38. ↑ "PRIMERA ENCUESTA NACIONAL (SEGUNDA VUELTA)" (PDF). Fundación Libertad y Desarrollo (in Spanish). 2 August 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 August 2023.
  39. ↑ "Innovem revela segunda encuesta de intención de voto en el balotaje". TV Azteca Guate (in Spanish). 2 August 2023.
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