Predicted outcome value theory

Last updated

Predicted outcome value theory introduced in 1996 by Michael Sunnafrank, posits that people seek information in initial interactions and relationships to determine the benefits of interpersonal relationships by predicting the value of future outcomes whether negative or positive. If a person predicts a positive outcome in the relationship this can lead to increased attraction, however if a person predicts a negative outcome then he or she would pursue limited interaction or possibly relationship termination. [1] The processes of predicted outcome value directly link to continued relationship development and communication as well as stronger attraction and intimacy within the relationship.

Contents

Predicted outcome value theory proposes that initial interaction behaviors serve two related functions in individuals' attempts to maximize future relational outcomes. First, communication is directed at reducing uncertainty (Berger & Calabrese, 1975) about new acquaintances to determine likely outcome-values for the relational future. Second, communication proceeds in a manner predicted to result in the most positive outcomes. In a broad sense, these outcome value predictions would lead to communicative attempts to terminate or curtail the conversation, to continue the entry-level conversation, or to escalate the conversation and relationship beyond this level. Attempts to continue or escalate would result from positive predicted outcome values, while attempts to terminate or curtail would result from negative predictions. Given this, predicted outcome value theory proposes that several specific behaviors associated with conversational termination-escalation should be related to predicted outcome value levels. Among these, Sunnafrank (1986) posits that predicted outcome value is positively related to amount of verbal communication, intimacy level of communication content, nonverbal affiliative expressiveness, and liking. [2]

Key propositions of predicted outcome value theory

1. Attraction increases as the predicted outcome value increases
2. Prediction of positive future outcomes leads to future interactions
3. Prediction of negative future outcomes ends future interactions
4. People focus and discuss topics in conversations that facilitate positive predicted outcomes [3]

Predicted outcome value theory is an alternative to uncertainty reduction theory, which Charles R. Berger and Richard J. Calabrese introduced in 1975. Uncertainty reduction theory states that the driving force in initial interactions is to collect information to predict attitudes and behaviors for future relationship development.

Sunnafrank challenges uncertainty reduction theory with his predicted outcome value theory in that initial interactions are not solely about reducing uncertainty within the relationship but motivated by the predicted outcome value. Sunnafrank ascertains that initial interactions only lead to continued relationship development after the person has determined future rewards and costs of that relationship. [4]

However, when looking at the relationships of the implications of both theories, there are many parallels. The propositions set forth by predicted outcome value theory by Sunnafrank almost exactly mirror the eight axioms of Berger and Calabrese's uncertainty reduction theory.

When looking at predicted outcome value theory, there are positive and negative predicted outcome values (POV) that are produced based on initial interactions. When there are positive predicted outcome values, they align with all of the same positive implications of uncertainty reduction. In other words, when dealing with positive feelings after an initial interaction, the implications of how that initial interaction unfolded align with the axioms of uncertainty reduction theory. For example,

  1. Verbal communication: There is a positive relationship between the amount of verbal communication and the predicted outcome value. If there is a positive POV between an initial interaction, both theories imply that verbal communication is most likely to increase. (This is the first axiom of uncertainty reduction theory and is the conclusion based on the second assumption of predicted outcome value theory.)
    Furthermore: [4]
  2. Proxemics: According to predicted outcome value theory, proximity in space and comfort of closeness increases more with higher POVs. (According to uncertainty reduction theory, as uncertainty reduces, the more we allow people to be comfortable in proxemics of space and display acts of affection, making this a negative relationship. As uncertainty decreases, acts of proxemics increase.)
  3. Disclosure(-): We are willing to disclose increasingly personal information the higher the initial POVs are. (Similarly, as uncertainty reduces, the more we also feel comfortable opening up about ourselves.)
  4. Reciprocity(+): The higher the initial POV, the more likely a person is to feel that they do not have to, or need to, reciprocate a conversation. (As uncertainty reduces, there is less of an urge to reciprocate a conversation. In other words, as uncertainty reduces, it is more likely that a person is willing to listen to a one-sided conversation and not feel obligated or need to reciprocate an answer.)
  5. Similarity(-): The higher the initial POV, the more likely it is that people feel similar to one another. (As two people feel more similar to one another, uncertainty decreases.
  6. Liking(-): The higher the initial POV, the higher probability is that a person likes the other, in terms of friendliness. (And as two people like each other increasingly more, uncertainty decreases accordingly.)
  7. Shared networking(-): If two individuals have friends in common that they trust, the higher the initial POV is. (As a shared network of friends grows bigger and bigger, uncertainty decreases.)
    The only axiom that is disagreed upon the two, and is what differentiates the two based on their implications, is the idea of information-seeking.
  8. Information-seeking- According to predicted outcome value theory, the higher the initial POVs, the more likely it is that the two people engaged in initial conversation will want to learn more about one another. And on the contrary, if the POV is negative (meaning that the initial interaction was not good), it is more likely that the two will not want to learn more about the other person. Thus, according to predicted outcome value theory, this is a positive relationship. The higher the POV, the more two people will want to know more about each other. On the other hand, according to uncertainty reduction theory, if there is high uncertainty between two people, it is more likely that they will want to know more about each other in order to reduce uncertainty, making this a negative relationship.

Theory developer

Michael Sunnafrank is a Professor in the Department of Communication, College of Liberal Arts at the University of Minnesota, Duluth. He joined the faculty at UMD in 1990 after fourteen years of teaching and research at Michigan State University, University of California Davis, Arizona State University and Texas A&M University. He was awarded his PhD and master's degrees by Michigan State University. [5] Sunnafrank continues to work on research testing predicted outcome value theory.

Empirical support

Sunnafrank's (1986) study examined a potential initial acquaintance association between perceived similarity and attraction may be present, though undetected, in previous interpersonal goals research and finds support for interpersonal goals claims regarding the perceived similarity/attraction relationship. The findings extended Sunnafrank (1983, 1984, 1985) and Sunnafrank and Miller's (1981) claim that attitude similarity and attraction are unassociated in beginning communicative relationships. While their research supports this claim for attitude similarity revealed in pre-acquaintance, it also shows that this claim generalizes to more normally occurring perceptions of attitude similarity produced during initial relational stages. The results strongly suggested that traditional beliefs about, and theoretical interpretations of, the attitude similarity/attraction association are incorrect, at least regarding the initial acquaintance period. [6]

Another study, "Predicted Outcome Value in Initial Conversations", provided the initial test of several predicted outcome value theory (Sunnafrank, 1986) propositions. Findings supported all hypotheses tested, and demonstrated that during initial conversations predicted outcome value is strongly and positively related to the amount of verbal communication, intimacy of communication content, nonverbal affiliation, liking and perceived similarity. [2]

More recent research was designed to investigate positive and negative predictors of possible relationships by focusing on decisions to engage in future dates. Interpersonal attraction, homophily, and nonverbal immediacy have been linked to the predicted outcome value of relationships during initial encounters. This study investigates how these variables influence date decisions in a six-minute speed-dating experience. Results indicated interpersonal attraction and nonverbal immediacy significantly predict predicted outcome value, but not future date decisions. [7]

Michael Sunnafrank and Artemio Ramirez Jr., assistant professor of communication at Ohio State University, conducted research which was published in the Journal of Social and Personal Relationships in 2004 and also featured on ABC news. Sunnafrank and Ramirez studied 164 college freshmen over a nine-week period to determine the predicted outcome value of relationship development between strangers. [8]

The study involved pairing two students of the same sex together the first day of class and introducing one another and then engaging in conversation for either three, six, or 10 minutes. Afterwards, researchers asked each student to predict the outcome of the relationship by describing it as a nodding acquaintance, casual acquaintance, acquaintance, close acquaintance, friend, and close friend. The students also completed extensive questionnaires about the other person to determine how much they liked one another (Sunnafrank & Ramirez, 2004).

Over the nine-week period, Sunnafrank and Ramirez (2004) facilitated a classroom environment that allowed the students to continue to get to know one another. At the end of the nine weeks, those students who predicted positive outcomes developed strong relationships and their behavior indicated such as those students sat together in class and communicated on a regular basis. The strongest effect of the study existed in the relationships where there was a predicted negative outcome. If students decided after the initial interaction that they did not want the relationship to progress then the students acted accordingly by restricting conversation, avoiding eye contact, and avoiding each other period.

Ramirez points out that there is power in first impressions. "People want to quickly determine if a person they just met is someone they are going to want to hang out with, or date, or spend more time with in the future. We don’t want to waste our time." [9]

Sunnafrank says that college freshmen can be "aggressive" in pursuing new friendships and relationships within social circles and that behavior tends to change over time. "In most situations in life, our time is pretty much claimed by work and family matters, so even when you meet people you really like, chances are not much is going to happen. As life goes on and social networks become solidified, acting on that first impression becomes less likely." [10]

Sunnafrank concluded that other events throughout the course of relationships can change the predicted outcome value, which he calls "surprising events", such as betraying one another's trust by "back stabbing" and that not all relationships turn out as originally predicted. However, in this study, it is apparent that initial impressions and interactions can determine the outcome of the relationship, which is the predicted outcome value theory. While the college freshmen had numerous opportunities to develop their relationships over the nine-week period, the first impressions made lasting impacts.

Related Research Articles

Rapport is a close and harmonious relationship in which the people or groups concerned are "in sync" with each other, understand each other's feelings or ideas, and communicate smoothly.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nonverbal communication</span> Interpersonal communication through wordless (mostly visual) cues

Nonverbal communication (NVC) is the transmission of messages or signals through a nonverbal platform such as eye contact (oculesics), body language (kinesics), social distance (proxemics), touch (haptics), voice (paralanguage), physical environments/appearance, and use of objects. When communicating, we utilize nonverbal channels as means to convey different messages or signals, whereas others can interpret these message. The study of nonverbal communication started in 1872 with the publication of The Expression of the Emotions in Man and Animals by Charles Darwin. Darwin began to study nonverbal communication as he noticed the interactions between animals such as lions, tigers, dogs etc. and realized they also communicated by gestures and expressions. For the first time, nonverbal communication was studied and its relevance questioned. Today, scholars argue that nonverbal communication can convey more meaning than verbal communication.

Interpersonal attraction, as a part of social psychology, is the study of the attraction between people which leads to the development of platonic or romantic relationships. It is distinct from perceptions such as physical attractiveness, and involves views of what is and what is not considered beautiful or attractive.

Expectancy violations theory (EVT) is a theory of communication that analyzes how individuals respond to unanticipated violations of social norms and expectations. The theory was proposed by Judee K. Burgoon in the late 1970s and continued through the 1980s and 1990s as "nonverbal expectancy violations theory", based on Burgoon's research studying proxemics. Burgoon's work initially analyzed individuals' allowances and expectations of personal distance and how responses to personal distance violations were influenced by the level of liking and relationship to the violators. The theory was later changed to its current name when other researchers began to focus on violations of social behavior expectations beyond nonverbal communication.

The uncertainty reduction theory, also known as initial interaction theory, developed in 1975 by Charles Berger and Richard Calabrese, is a communication theory from the post-positivist tradition. It is one of the few communication theories that specifically looks into the initial interaction between people prior to the actual communication process. Uncertainty reduction theory originators main goal when constructing it was to explain how communication is used to reduce uncertainty between strangers during a first interaction. Uncertainty reduction theory claims that everyone activates two processes in order to reduce uncertainty. The first being a proactive process, which focuses on what someone might do. The second being a retroactive process, which focuses on how people understand what another does or says. This theory's main claim is that people must receive information about another party in order to reduce their uncertainty and, that people want to do so. While uncertainty reduction theory claims that communication will lead to reduced uncertainty, it is important to note that this is not always the case. Dr. Dale E. Brashers of the University of Illinois argues that in some scenarios, more communication may lead to greater uncertainty.

The social penetration theory (SPT) proposes that as relationships develop, interpersonal communication moves from relatively shallow, non-intimate levels to deeper, more intimate ones. The theory was formulated by psychologists Irwin Altman of the University of Utah and Dalmas Taylor of the University of Delaware in 1973 to understand relationship development between individuals. Altman and Taylor noted that relationships "involve different levels of intimacy of exchange or degree of social penetration". SPT is known as an objective theory as opposed to an interpretive theory, meaning it is based on data drawn from actual experiments and not simply from conclusions based on individuals' specific experiences.

Communication accommodation theory (CAT) is a theory of communication developed by Howard Giles. This theory concerns "(1) the behavioral changes that people make to attune their communication to their partner, (2) the extent to which people perceive their partner as appropriately attuning to them." The basis of the theory lies in the idea that people adjust their style of speech to one another. Doing this helps the message sender gain approval from the receiver, increases efficiency in communication between both parties, and helps the sender maintain a positive social identity. This theory is concerned with the links between language, context, and identity. It focuses on both the intergroup and interpersonal factors that lead to accommodation, as well as the ways that power, macro- and micro-context concerns affect communication behaviors; emphasizing the important duplexity of both factors in predicting and understanding intergroup interactions. Accommodation is usually considered to be between the message sender and the message receiver, but the communicator also often accommodates to a larger audience – either a group of people that are watching the interaction or society in general. Communication accommodation theory (CAT) predicts and explains why communicants make adjustments to increase, decrease, or maintain social distance.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Chronemics</span> Study of the role of time in communication

Chronemics is an anthropological, philosophical, and linguistic subdiscipline that describes how time is perceived, coded, and communicated across a given culture. It is one of several subcategories to emerge from the study of nonverbal communication. According to the Encyclopedia of Special Education, "Chronemics includes time orientation, understanding and organisation, the use of and reaction to time pressures, the innate and learned awareness of time, by physically wearing or not wearing a watch, arriving, starting, and ending late or on time." A person's perception and values placed on time plays a considerable role in their communication process. The use of time can affect lifestyles, personal relationships, and work life. Across cultures, people usually have different time perceptions, and this can result in conflicts between individuals. Time perceptions include punctuality, interactions, and willingness to wait.

Interpersonal deception theory (IDT) is one of a number of theories that attempts to explain how individuals handle actual deception at the conscious or subconscious level while engaged in face-to-face communication. The theory was put forth by David Buller and Judee Burgoon in 1996 to explore this idea that deception is an engaging process between receiver and deceiver. IDT assumes that communication is not static; it is influenced by personal goals and the meaning of the interaction as it unfolds. IDT is no different from other forms of communication since all forms of communication are adaptive in nature. The sender's overt communications are affected by the overt and covert communications of the receiver, and vice versa. IDT explores the interrelation between the sender's communicative meaning and the receiver's thoughts and behavior in deceptive exchanges.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Social information processing (theory)</span>

Social information processing theory, also known as SIP, is a psychological and sociological theory originally developed by Salancik and Pfeffer in 1978. This theory explores how individuals make decisions and form attitudes in a social context, often focusing on the workplace. It suggests that people rely heavily on the social information available to them in their environments, including input from colleagues and peers, to shape their attitudes, behaviors, and perceptions.

The hyperpersonal model is a model of interpersonal communication that suggests computer-mediated communication (CMC) can become hyperpersonal because it "exceeds [face-to-face] interaction", thus affording message senders a host of communicative advantages over traditional face-to-face (FtF) interaction. The hyperpersonal model demonstrates how individuals communicate uniquely, while representing themselves to others, how others interpret them, and how the interactions create a reciprocal spiral of FtF communication. Compared to ordinary FtF situations, a hyperpersonal message sender has a greater ability to strategically develop and edit self-presentation, enabling a selective and optimized presentation of one's self to others.

Anxiety/uncertainty management (AUM) theory is known as the high levels of anxiety one may experience as they come in contact with those of another culture. This concept was first introduced by William B. Gudykunst to further define how humans effectively communicate based on their anxiety and uncertainty in social situations. Gudykunst believed that in order for successful intercultural communication a reduction in anxiety/uncertainty must occur. This is assuming that the individuals within the intercultural encounter are strangers. AUM is a theory based on the uncertainty reduction theory (URT) which was introduced by Berger and Calabrese in 1974. URT provides much of the initial framework for AUM, and much like other theories in the communication field AUM is a constantly developing theory, based on the observations of human behaviour in social situations.

Thin-slicing is a term used in psychology and philosophy to describe the ability to find patterns in events based only on "thin slices", or narrow windows, of experience. The term refers to the process of making very quick inferences about the state, characteristics or details of an individual or situation with minimal amounts of information. Research has found that brief judgments based on thin-slicing are similar to those judgments based on much more information. Judgments based on thin-slicing can be as accurate, or even more so, than judgments based on much more information.

Judee K. Burgoon is a professor of communication, family studies and human development at the University of Arizona, where she serves as director of research for the Center for the Management of Information and site director for the NSF-sponsored Center for Identification Technology Research. She is also involved with different aspects of interpersonal and nonverbal communication, deception, and new communication technologies. She is also director of human communication research for the Center for the Management of Information and site director for Center for Identification Technology Research at the university, and recently held an appointment as distinguished visiting professor with the department of communication at the University of Oklahoma, and the Center for Applied Social Research at the University of Oklahoma. Burgoon has authored or edited 13 books and monographs and has published nearly 300 articles, chapters and reviews related to nonverbal and verbal communication, deception, and computer-mediated communication. Her research has garnered over $13 million in extramural funding from the National Science Foundation, the Department of Defense, the Department of Homeland Security, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Counterintelligence Field Activity, and the National Institutes of Mental Health. Among the communication theories with which she is most notably linked are: interpersonal adaptation theory, expectancy violations theory, and interpersonal deception theory. A recent survey identified her as the most prolific female scholar in communication in the 20th century.

Cognitive valence theory (CVT) is a theoretical framework that describes and explains the process of intimacy exchange within a dyad relationship. Peter A. Andersen, PhD created the cognitive valence theory to answer questions regarding intimacy relationships among colleagues, close friends and intimate friends, married couples and family members. Intimacy or immediacy behavior is that behavior that provides closeness or distance within a dyad relationship. Closeness projects a positive feeling in a relationship, and distance projects a negative feeling within a relationship. Intimacy or immediacy behavior can be negatively valenced or positively valenced. Valence, associated with physics, is used here to describe the degree of negativity or positivity in expected information. If your partner perceives your actions as negative, then the interaction may repel your partner away from you. If your partner perceives your actions as positive, then the interaction may be accepted and may encourage closeness. Affection and intimacy promotes positive valence in a relationship. CVT uses non-verbal and verbal communications criteria to analyze behavioral situations.

Relational transgressions occur when people violate implicit or explicit relational rules. These transgressions include a wide variety of behaviors. The boundaries of relational transgressions are permeable. Betrayal for example, is often used as a synonym for a relational transgression. In some instances, betrayal can be defined as a rule violation that is traumatic to a relationship, and in other instances as destructive conflict or reference to infidelity.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Interpersonal communication</span> Exchange of information among people

Interpersonal communication is an exchange of information between two or more people. It is also an area of research that seeks to understand how humans use verbal and nonverbal cues to accomplish several personal and relational goals. Communication includes utilizing communication skills within one's surroundings, including physical and psychological spaces. It is essential to see the visual/nonverbal and verbal cues regarding the physical spaces. In the psychological spaces, self-awareness and awareness of the emotions, cultures, and things that are not seen are also significant when communicating.

Nonverbal influence is the act of affecting or inspiring change in others' behaviors and attitudes by way of tone of voice or body language and other cues like facial expression. This act of getting others to embrace or resist new attitudes can be achieved with or without the use of spoken language. It is a subtopic of nonverbal communication. Many individuals instinctively associate persuasion with verbal messages. Nonverbal influence emphasizes the persuasive power and influence of nonverbal communication. Nonverbal influence includes appeals to attraction, similarity and intimacy.

Uncertainty management theory (UMT), developed by Dale Brashers, addresses the concept of uncertainty management. Several theories have been developed in an attempt to define uncertainty, identify its effects and establish strategies for managing it. Uncertainty management theory was the first theory to decline the idea that uncertainty is negative. It was developed and has been applied considering uncertainty neutral; neither positive nor negative. Although viewed as neutral, researchers of uncertainty management propose that uncertainty can be utilized strategically for beneficial purposes while also acknowledging that the effects of uncertainty can be harmful, espousing an approach that requires examination of each situation, the parties involved, the issues at stake and the desired objectives for determining the best method for managing uncertainty, with reduction being one of the many management techniques.

Hurtful communication occurs when the receiver perceives a specific social interaction as upsetting or harmful emotionally. In the course of human interaction, one party will say or do something that results in unpleasant emotional feelings for another. Negative social interactions can be intentional, when one or both parties are involved in interpersonal conflict, or unintentional, such as when misunderstandings occur. Actions such as failure to recognize accomplishments or significant dates can cause hurtful outcomes within relationships.

References

  1. ↑ Littlejohn, S. (2002). Theories of human communication. (7th Edition). China: Wadsworth Group.
  2. 1 2 Sunnafrank, Michael (1988). "Predicted Outcome Value in Initial Conversations." Communication Research Reports, Vol 5. No 2, 169-172.
  3. ↑ Berger, C., Roloff, M., & Roskos-Ewoldsen, D. (2010). The handbook of communication science. (2nd Edition). London: Sage Publication, Inc.
  4. 1 2 Keating, Dave. "Lecture: Uncertainty Reduction Theory." COMS351. California State University, Northridge. 28 February 2019.
  5. ↑ "Department of Communication | College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences".
  6. ↑ Sunnafrank, Michael (Spring 1986). "Communicative Influences on Perceived Similarity and Attraction: An Expansion of the Interpersonal Goals Perspective." The Western Journal of Speech Communication, 50, 158-170.
  7. ↑ Houser, Marian L. Horan, Sean M. Furler, Lisa A. (2008). "Dating in the fast lane: How communication predicts speed-dating success." Journal of Social and Personal Relationships , Vol. 25, No. 5, 749-768.
  8. ↑ Sunnafrank, M. & Ramirez, A., (2004). "At First Sight: Persistent Relational Effects of Get-Acquainted Conversations.” Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, Vol. 21. pp. 361-379.
  9. ↑ Grabmeier, J. (2004). "First 10 minutes after meeting may guide future of relationship". Research Communications. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University. http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/1stimpre.htm
  10. ↑ "Study: First Impressions Really Matter". ABC News. Retrieved 2023-06-22.

Sources

This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.