Product forecasting is the science of predicting the degree of success a new product will enjoy in the marketplace. To do this, the forecasting model must take into account such things as product awareness, distribution, price, fulfilling unmet needs and competitive alternatives.
Bass model is one type of forecasting method primarily used in new product forecasting. In general, there will be no historical demand for new product. Then, Bass model tries to capture shape of demand of existing product and apply new product.
where,
Multivariate techniques such as regression can be used to determine the values of p, q and N if historical sales data is available.
The Fourt-Woodlock model is another method used to estimate product sales.
The left-hand-side of the equation is the volume of purchases per unit time (usually taken to be one year). On the right-hand-side, the first set of parentheses describe trial volume, and the second describes repeat volume.
HH is the total number of households in the geographic area of projection, and TR ("trial rate") is the percentage of those households which will purchase the product for the first time in a given time period. TU ("trial units") is the number of units purchased on this first purchase occasion. MR is "measured repeat," or the percentage of those who tried the product who will purchase it at least one more time within the first year of the product's launch. RR is the repeats per repeater: the number of repeat purchases within that same year. RU is the number of repeat units purchased on each repeat event.
In mathematics, the binomial coefficients are the positive integers that occur as coefficients in the binomial theorem. Commonly, a binomial coefficient is indexed by a pair of integers n ≥ k ≥ 0 and is written It is the coefficient of the xk term in the polynomial expansion of the binomial power (1 + x)n; this coefficient can be computed by the multiplicative formula
In physics, the cross section is a measure of the probability that a specific process will take place in a collision of two particles. For example, the Rutherford cross-section is a measure of probability that an alpha particle will be deflected by a given angle during an interaction with an atomic nucleus. Cross section is typically denoted σ (sigma) and is expressed in units of area, more specifically in barns. In a way, it can be thought of as the size of the object that the excitation must hit in order for the process to occur, but more exactly, it is a parameter of a stochastic process.
In mathematical physics and mathematics, the Pauli matrices are a set of three 2 × 2 complex matrices that are traceless, Hermitian, involutory and unitary. Usually indicated by the Greek letter sigma, they are occasionally denoted by tau when used in connection with isospin symmetries.
In probability theory and statistics, the negative binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution that models the number of failures in a sequence of independent and identically distributed Bernoulli trials before a specified/constant/fixed number of successes occur. For example, we can define rolling a 6 on some dice as a success, and rolling any other number as a failure, and ask how many failure rolls will occur before we see the third success. In such a case, the probability distribution of the number of failures that appear will be a negative binomial distribution.
The fundamental theorem of algebra, also called d'Alembert's theorem or the d'Alembert–Gauss theorem, states that every non-constant single-variable polynomial with complex coefficients has at least one complex root. This includes polynomials with real coefficients, since every real number is a complex number with its imaginary part equal to zero.
In mathematics, a generating function is a representation of an infinite sequence of numbers as the coefficients of a formal power series. Generating functions are often expressed in closed form, by some expression involving operations on the formal series.
In linear algebra, the Cayley–Hamilton theorem states that every square matrix over a commutative ring satisfies its own characteristic equation.
In mathematics, the Laplace operator or Laplacian is a differential operator given by the divergence of the gradient of a scalar function on Euclidean space. It is usually denoted by the symbols , (where is the nabla operator), or . In a Cartesian coordinate system, the Laplacian is given by the sum of second partial derivatives of the function with respect to each independent variable. In other coordinate systems, such as cylindrical and spherical coordinates, the Laplacian also has a useful form. Informally, the Laplacian Δf (p) of a function f at a point p measures by how much the average value of f over small spheres or balls centered at p deviates from f (p).
In mathematics, the Pontryagin classes, named after Lev Pontryagin, are certain characteristic classes of real vector bundles. The Pontryagin classes lie in cohomology groups with degrees a multiple of four.
In mathematics, the determinant of an m-by-m skew-symmetric matrix can always be written as the square of a polynomial in the matrix entries, a polynomial with integer coefficients that only depends on m. When m is odd, the polynomial is zero, and when m is even, it is a nonzero polynomial of degree m/2, and is unique up to multiplication by ±1. The convention on skew-symmetric tridiagonal matrices, given below in the examples, then determines one specific polynomial, called the Pfaffian polynomial. The value of this polynomial, when applied to the entries of a skew-symmetric matrix, is called the Pfaffian of that matrix. The term Pfaffian was introduced by Cayley, who indirectly named them after Johann Friedrich Pfaff.
In electromagnetism, the magnetic moment or magnetic dipole moment is the combination of strength and orientation of a magnet or other object or system that exerts a magnetic field. The magnetic dipole moment of an object determines the magnitude of torque the object experiences in a given magnetic field. When the same magnetic field is applied, objects with larger magnetic moments experience larger torques. The strength of this torque depends not only on the magnitude of the magnetic moment but also on its orientation relative to the direction of the magnetic field. Its direction points from the south pole to north pole of the magnet.
Economic order quantity (EOQ), also known as financial purchase quantity or economic buying quantity, is the order quantity that minimizes the total holding costs and ordering costs in inventory management. It is one of the oldest classical production scheduling models. The model was developed by Ford W. Harris in 1913, but the consultant R. H. Wilson applied it extensively, and he and K. Andler are given credit for their in-depth analysis.
In thermodynamics, the heat transfer coefficient or film coefficient, or film effectiveness, is the proportionality constant between the heat flux and the thermodynamic driving force for the flow of heat. It is used in calculating the heat transfer, typically by convection or phase transition between a fluid and a solid. The heat transfer coefficient has SI units in watts per square meter per kelvin.
In probability theory and mathematical physics, a random matrix is a matrix-valued random variable—that is, a matrix in which some or all of its entries are sampled randomly from a probability distribution. Random matrix theory (RMT) is the study of properties of random matrices, often as they become large. RMT provides techniques like mean-field theory, diagrammatic methods, the cavity method, or the replica method to compute quantities like traces, spectral densities, or scalar products between eigenvectors. Many physical phenomena, such as the spectrum of nuclei of heavy atoms, the thermal conductivity of a lattice, or the emergence of quantum chaos, can be modeled mathematically as problems concerning large, random matrices.
In mathematics, matrix calculus is a specialized notation for doing multivariable calculus, especially over spaces of matrices. It collects the various partial derivatives of a single function with respect to many variables, and/or of a multivariate function with respect to a single variable, into vectors and matrices that can be treated as single entities. This greatly simplifies operations such as finding the maximum or minimum of a multivariate function and solving systems of differential equations. The notation used here is commonly used in statistics and engineering, while the tensor index notation is preferred in physics.
The Bass model or Bass diffusion model was developed by Frank Bass. It consists of a simple differential equation that describes the process of how new products get adopted in a population. The model presents a rationale of how current adopters and potential adopters of a new product interact. The basic premise of the model is that adopters can be classified as innovators or as imitators, and the speed and timing of adoption depends on their degree of innovation and the degree of imitation among adopters. The Bass model has been widely used in forecasting, especially new product sales forecasting and technology forecasting. Mathematically, the basic Bass diffusion is a Riccati equation with constant coefficients equivalent to Verhulst—Pearl logistic growth.
In mathematics, Hochschild homology (and cohomology) is a homology theory for associative algebras over rings. There is also a theory for Hochschild homology of certain functors. Hochschild cohomology was introduced by Gerhard Hochschild (1945) for algebras over a field, and extended to algebras over more general rings by Henri Cartan and Samuel Eilenberg (1956).
The Fourt–Woodlock equation is a market research tool to describe the total volume of consumer product purchases per year based on households which initially make trial purchases of the product and those households which make a repeat purchase within the first year. Since it includes the effects of initial trial and repeat rates, the equation is useful in new product development.
Concentric Tube Heat Exchangers are used in a variety of industries for purposes such as material processing, food preparation, and air-conditioning. They create a temperature driving force by passing fluid streams of different temperatures parallel to each other, separated by a physical boundary in the form of a pipe. This induces forced convection, transferring heat to/from the product.
In mathematics, an algebraic number field is an extension field of the field of rational numbers such that the field extension has finite degree . Thus is a field that contains and has finite dimension when considered as a vector space over .