Seasonal spread trading

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Seasonal spread traders are spread traders that take advantage of seasonal patterns by holding long and short positions in futures contracts simultaneously in the same or a related commodity markets, such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the New York Mercantile Exchange and the London Metal Exchange among others.

Contents

The spread is the difference between the simultaneous values of these futures contracts.

The 4 main commodity groups are: [1]

Traders may use a combination of fundamental analysis, technical, and historical factors in their analysis. Speculators hope to profit from the relative changes in price between the initial and offsetting positions. Contracts may be spread against different months or different markets.

Traders are concerned with whether the changes in the difference between the sides of the spread are moving in their favor or not. Position traders may hold trades longer and with less risk using spreads.

In order to find the information on seasonal spread, many traders use algorithms [2] retrieving past commodity volatility and performance.

Important sources for seasonal traders are institutional reports, such as the COT report, which shows the positions held on commodities by the major market players. [3]

Lower good faith margin deposits required by commodity exchanges to trade spreads means more opportunities to leverage up and diversify positions. Spreads may behave smoother than the underlying futures contracts.

A crucial point whether seasonal spread trading works is the quality of the seasonal pattern. It is important to keep checking the recurring price trends because trends can also change. For example, there was a very good seasonal pattern in gold in the 80s and 90s that no longer exists. The reason is a different demand behavior of gold buyers. Despite the fact that seasonal patterns can change, investing and trading based on seasonal patterns is very popular in the financial industry. Financial institutions use professional software for this purpose, such as Seasonal Analysis Tools. [4]

See also

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Commodity market</span> Physical or virtual transactions of buying and selling involving raw or primary commodities

A commodity market is a market that trades in the primary economic sector rather than manufactured products, such as cocoa, fruit and sugar. Hard commodities are mined, such as gold and oil. Futures contracts are the oldest way of investing in commodities. Commodity markets can include physical trading and derivatives trading using spot prices, forwards, futures, and options on futures. Farmers have used a simple form of derivative trading in the commodity market for centuries for price risk management.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Contango</span> Situation when futures prices are above the expected spot price at maturity

Contango is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is higher than the expected spot price of the contract at maturity. In a contango situation, arbitrageurs or speculators are "willing to pay more [now] for a commodity [to be received] at some point in the future than the actual expected price of the commodity [at that future point]. This may be due to people's desire to pay a premium to have the commodity in the future rather than paying the costs of storage and carry costs of buying the commodity today." On the other side of the trade, hedgers are happy to sell futures contracts and accept the higher-than-expected returns. A contango market is also known as a normal market, or carrying-cost market.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Speculation</span> Engaging in risky financial transactions

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In finance, a futures contract is a standardized legal contract to buy or sell something at a predetermined price for delivery at a specified time in the future, between parties not yet known to each other. The asset transacted is usually a commodity or financial instrument. The predetermined price of the contract is known as the forward price or delivery price. The specified time in the future when delivery and payment occur is known as the delivery date. Because it derives its value from the value of the underlying asset, a futures contract is a derivative.

A futures exchange or futures market is a central financial exchange where people can trade standardized futures contracts defined by the exchange. Futures contracts are derivatives contracts to buy or sell specific quantities of a commodity or financial instrument at a specified price with delivery set at a specified time in the future. Futures exchanges provide physical or electronic trading venues, details of standardized contracts, market and price data, clearing houses, exchange self-regulations, margin mechanisms, settlement procedures, delivery times, delivery procedures and other services to foster trading in futures contracts. Futures exchanges can be organized as non-profit member-owned organizations or as for-profit organizations. Futures exchanges can be integrated under the same brand name or organization with other types of exchanges, such as stock markets, options markets, and bond markets. Non-profit member-owned futures exchanges benefit their members, who earn commissions and revenue acting as brokers or market makers. For-profit futures exchanges earn most of their revenue from trading and clearing fees.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">New York Mercantile Exchange</span> American futures exchange

The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is a commodity futures exchange owned and operated by CME Group of Chicago. NYMEX is located at One North End Avenue in Brookfield Place in the Battery Park City section of Manhattan, New York City.

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References

  1. "Commodity Spread Trading Course". www.assistenzabrokers.it. Retrieved 2021-03-05.
  2. "Alpha4Charts - Spread Trading Algorithm". charts.alpha4all.com. Retrieved 2021-03-05.
  3. "COT: il report che segue i trader istituzionali - Alpha4all.it" . Retrieved 2021-09-20.
  4. "Saisonale Analyse Tools" . Retrieved 2023-01-31.