![]() | This article may require cleanup to meet Wikipedia's quality standards. The specific problem is: structure, formatting, copyediting.(November 2014) |
Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory is an article published in 1950 which was written by economist Armen Alchian.
In this article, Alchian delineates an evolutionary approach to describe firms' behavior. His theory embodies principles of biological evolution and natural selection. This article is among the first in the economics literature to analogize between success and survival in the market with the mechanism of variation and natural selection postulated in evolutionary biology. Alchian postulated that the survival of a few firms from a large number of firms that entered the market may be due to random entrepreneurial decisions rather than by brilliance or cunning. Success and survival rests upon the market's response to the firms' products.
Entrepreneurial decision-making cannot be tied to an explicit maximizing objective because the future is not known, and, at best, is a mishmash of probabilistic outcomes.
The evolutionary approach to firm survival and behavior proposes that firms do not have to consciously strive to maximize profits and that is because scarcity and competition will ensure the firms' survival and will behave as if they are maximizing profits. Much like the survival of heliophiliac plants, only those plants that do get sunshine will survive. The plants that have survived is understood to have acquired more sunlight than the non-surviving plants. This explanation contrasts starkly with the mainstream picture of accurate foresight and perfect rationality often ascribed to economic actors.
Alchian dismisses profit maximization and utility maximization as meaningful attributes of firms' survival. He argues that uncertainty and probabilistic outcomes make the maximization of any objective function meaningless. Alchian states that uncertainty arises from two sources: imperfect foresight and human inability to solve complex problems with a host of variables. Uncertainty and a combination of random behavior and foresight lead to probability distributions of outcomes (profits/losses) rather than a unique outcome. Consequently any objective function has to incorporate both returns AND attitudes towards risk, but an objective function cannot incorporate a non-objective function (which is what preferences for risk are) and still be an objective function. Success and viability depend on implementing strategies that yield positive profits; similar to natural selection firms realizing negative profits are more likely to be culled from the population regardless of managerial aspirations. In the long run this leads to a population of firms appearing to share discernible criteria ascribable to successful firms. Competing firms that mimic the behavior of successful/surviving firms will appear to be consciously maximizing profits even though their strategies were developed in the absence of the aforementioned criteria. Alchian notes that the successful firms may not consciously maximize profits but act as if they do because market forces cull firms that fail to yield positive returns. What the goals of the entrepreneurs of successful firms are is not relevant. Market forces affect firm profitability, and in retrospect the historical record will show surviving firms behaving as if the firms had information and foresight. Firms which quickly emulate successful firms (by definition survivors of the market forces) will increase their chances of survival. Whereas firms that fail to adapt, or do so slowly, risk a greater likelihood of failure. Surviving firms evolve in the direction of the more economically profitable firms. Evolution and competition for scarce resources ensure that, in practice, firms do not have to consciously maximize an objective function. Alchian concludes that, despite uncertainty and the lack of knowledge by market participants, economists can still analyze the behavior of firms using the assumptions of profit maximization. The prerequisites for survival in the long run are returns greater than costs, profits in other words. In retrospect economists can compare alternatives and predict which behaviors were more conducive for survival even though such knowledge was unavailable to contemporaneous firms.
"Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory" was heavily influenced by Armen Alchian's education and background in statistical analysis. Alchian studied statistics at Stanford University under W. Allen Wallis who introduced Alchian to the statistical work of Ronald Fisher. Fisher was one of the founders of the Neo-Darwinian Synthesis and influenced Alchian's approach on statistics. Alchian's early studies at the Rand Corporation dealt with system analysis convinced Alchian that uncertainty was a central challenge threatening assumptions of Marginal analysis.
"Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory" was Alchian's first major article. It is hailed by most evolutionary economists as an important and seminal contribution to economic theory. Economists who consider the article a powerful defense of the assumption of profit maximization include Arthur S. De Vany, Harold Demsetz, and Benjamin Klein.
"Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory" drew criticism from Sidney G. Winter; he argued that Alchian failed to consider the transmission mechanisms that determine successful behaviors, and how they can be maintained and copied over time. According to Winter if maximizing profits is not a result of conscious action, then those particular actions cannot be learned by other firms. Winter further argued that in the case of weak competition selective pressure will be limited.
Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions among rational agents. It has applications in many fields of social science, used extensively in economics as well as in logic, systems science and computer science. Traditional game theory addressed two-person zero-sum games, in which a participant's gains or losses are exactly balanced by the losses and gains of the other participant. In the 21st century, game theory applies to a wider range of behavioral relations, and it is now an umbrella term for the science of logical decision making in humans, animals, as well as computers.
Microeconomics is a branch of mainstream economics that studies the behavior of individuals and firms in making decisions regarding the allocation of scarce resources and the interactions among these individuals and firms. Microeconomics focuses on the study of individual markets, sectors, or industries as opposed to the national economy as a whole, which is studied in macroeconomics.
Neoclassical economics is an approach to economics in which the production, consumption, and valuation (pricing) of goods and services are observed as driven by the supply and demand model. According to this line of thought, the value of a good or service is determined through a hypothetical maximization of utility by income-constrained individuals and of profits by firms facing production costs and employing available information and factors of production. This approach has often been justified by appealing to rational choice theory.
Rational choice theory refers to a set of guidelines that help understand economic and social behaviour. The theory originated in the eighteenth century and can be traced back to political economist and philosopher, Adam Smith. The theory postulates that an individual will perform a cost-benefit analysis to determine whether an option is right for them. It also suggests that an individual's self-driven rational actions will help better the overall economy. Rational choice theory looks at three concepts: rational actors, self interest and the invisible hand.
Satisficing is a decision-making strategy or cognitive heuristic that entails searching through the available alternatives until an acceptability threshold is met. The term satisficing, a portmanteau of satisfy and suffice, was introduced by Herbert A. Simon in 1956, although the concept was first posited in his 1947 book Administrative Behavior. Simon used satisficing to explain the behavior of decision makers under circumstances in which an optimal solution cannot be determined. He maintained that many natural problems are characterized by computational intractability or a lack of information, both of which preclude the use of mathematical optimization procedures. He observed in his Nobel Prize in Economics speech that "decision makers can satisfice either by finding optimum solutions for a simplified world, or by finding satisfactory solutions for a more realistic world. Neither approach, in general, dominates the other, and both have continued to co-exist in the world of management science".
Evolutionary economics is a school of economic thought that is inspired by evolutionary biology. Although not defined by a strict set of principles and uniting various approaches, it treats economic development as a process rather than an equilibrium and emphasizes change, innovation, complex interdependencies, self-evolving systems, and limited rationality as the drivers of economic evolution. The support for the evolutionary approach to economics in recent decades seems to have initially emerged as a criticism of the mainstream neoclassical economics, but by the beginning of the 21st century it had become part of the economic mainstream itself.
Behavioral economics studies the effects of psychological, cognitive, emotional, cultural and social factors in the decisions of individuals or institutions, and how these decisions deviate from those implied by classical economic theory.
Frank Hyneman Knight was an American economist who spent most of his career at the University of Chicago, where he became one of the founders of the Chicago School.
From a legal point of view, a contract is an institutional arrangement for the way in which resources flow, which defines the various relationships between the parties to a transaction or limits the rights and obligations of the parties.
Steve Keen is an Australian economist and author. He considers himself a post-Keynesian, criticising neoclassical economics as inconsistent, unscientific and empirically unsupported.
Managerial economics is a branch of economics involving the application of economic methods in the organizational decision-making process. Economics is the study of the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. Managerial economics involves the use of economic theories and principles to make decisions regarding the allocation of scarce resources. It guides managers in making decisions relating to the company's customers, competitors, suppliers, and internal operations.
The theory of the firm consists of a number of economic theories that explain and predict the nature of the firm, company, or corporation, including its existence, behaviour, structure, and relationship to the market. Firms are key drivers in economics, providing goods and services in return for monetary payments and rewards. Organisational structure, incentives, employee productivity, and information all influence the successful operation of a firm in the economy and within itself. As such major economic theories such as Transaction cost theory, Managerial economics and Behavioural theory of the firm will allow for an in-depth analysis on various firm and management types.
In economics, a cardinal utility function or scale is a utility index that preserves preference orderings uniquely up to positive affine transformations. Two utility indices are related by an affine transformation if for the value of one index u, occurring at any quantity of the goods bundle being evaluated, the corresponding value of the other index v satisfies a relationship of the form
Armen Albert Alchian was an American economist. He spent almost his entire career at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). A major microeconomic theorist, he is known as one of the founders of new institutional economics and widely acknowledged for his work on property rights.
Heterodox economics is any economic thought or theory that contrasts with orthodox schools of economic thought, or that may be beyond neoclassical economics. These include institutional, evolutionary, feminist, social, post-Keynesian, ecological, Austrian, complexity, Marxian, socialist, and anarchist economics.
New Institutional Economics (NIE) is an economic perspective that attempts to extend economics by focusing on the institutions that underlie economic activity and with analysis beyond earlier institutional economics and neoclassical economics. Unlike neoclassical economics, it also considers the role of culture and classical political economy in economic development.
Giovanni Dosi is Professor of Economics and Director of the Institute of Economics at the Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna in Pisa. He is the Co-Director of the task forces “Industrial Policy” and “Intellectual Property” at the Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia University. Dosi is Continental European Editor of Industrial and Corporate Change. Included in ISI Highly Cited Researchers.
Karl Brunner was a Swiss economist.
In oligopoly theory, conjectural variation is the belief that one firm has an idea about the way its competitors may react if it varies its output or price. The firm forms a conjecture about the variation in the other firm's output that will accompany any change in its own output. For example, in the classic Cournot model of oligopoly, it is assumed that each firm treats the output of the other firms as given when it chooses its output. This is sometimes called the "Nash conjecture," as it underlies the standard Nash equilibrium concept. However, alternative assumptions can be made. Suppose you have two firms producing the same good, so that the industry price is determined by the combined output of the two firms. Now suppose that each firm has what is called the "Bertrand Conjecture" of −1. This means that if firm A increases its output, it conjectures that firm B will reduce its output to exactly offset firm A's increase, so that total output and hence price remains unchanged. With the Bertrand Conjecture, the firms act as if they believe that the market price is unaffected by their own output, because each firm believes that the other firm will adjust its output so that total output will be constant. At the other extreme is the Joint-Profit maximizing conjecture of +1. In this case, each firm believes that the other will imitate exactly any change in output it makes, which leads to the firms behaving like a single monopoly supplier.
The behavioral theory of the firm first appeared in the 1963 book A Behavioral Theory of the Firm by Richard M. Cyert and James G. March. The work on the behavioral theory started in 1952 when March, a political scientist, joined Carnegie Mellon University, where Cyert was an economist.
![]() | This article includes a list of references, related reading, or external links, but its sources remain unclear because it lacks inline citations .(November 2014) |