Wrong way risk

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In the field of finance, a wrong way risk (WWR) occurs when credit exposure to a counterparty is negatively correlated with the credit quality of that counterparty. [1] In other words, the more a party gains on a trade, the more likely it is for the counterparty to default. It is a source of concerns for banks and regulators, as it increases the overall counterparty credit risk.

Contents

It is opposed to right way risk (RWR), which occurs when one party's payment obligations are positively correlated to the same party's credit worthiness and thus reduces the overall counterparty credit risk.

Illustration of the correlations between Exposure and Probability of Default Correlations PD Exposure.svg
Illustration of the correlations between Exposure and Probability of Default

Types

Specific wrong way risk (SWWR)

Specific wrong way risk arises through poorly structured transactions or through factors that are specific to the counterparty, such as a rating downgrade or a litigation. An example could be a company selling a put option on its own stock. If the stock suddenly loses value, the company's credit quality will decrease, while also increasing its liability to the owner of the put option.

General wrong way risk (GWWR)

General wrong way risk (also known as conjectural wrong way risk) arises through macroeconomic factors that are not specifically affecting the counterparty, such as a shock on interest rates.

An example could be an interest rate swap between two parties, where Party A agrees to pay to Party B a fixed interest rate in exchange for a floating interest rate. If interest rates rise globally, Party A's exposure increases while the counterparty's likelihood of default increases (as it is now obligated to make larger interest payments).

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Derivative (finance)</span> Financial contract whose value comes from the underlying entitys performance

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Futures contract</span> Standard forward contract

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Credit derivative</span> Exotic financial option

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Credit default swap</span> Financial swap agreement in case of default

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Swap (finance)</span> Exchange of derivatives or other financial instruments

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fixed income</span> Type of investment

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In finance, a price (premium) is paid or received for purchasing or selling options. This article discusses the calculation of this premium in general. For further detail, see: Mathematical finance § Derivatives pricing: the Q world for discussion of the mathematics; Financial engineering for the implementation; as well as Financial modeling § Quantitative finance generally.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Option (finance)</span> Right to buy or sell a certain thing at a later date at an agreed price

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A central clearing counterparty (CCP), also referred to as a central counterparty, is a financial institution that takes on counterparty credit risk between parties to a transaction and provides clearing and settlement services for trades in foreign exchange, securities, options, and derivative contracts. CCPs are highly regulated institutions that specialize in managing counterparty credit risk.

A synthetic CDO is a variation of a CDO that generally uses credit default swaps and other derivatives to obtain its investment goals. As such, it is a complex derivative financial security sometimes described as a bet on the performance of other mortgage products, rather than a real mortgage security. The value and payment stream of a synthetic CDO is derived not from cash assets, like mortgages or credit card payments – as in the case of a regular or "cash" CDO—but from premiums paying for credit default swap "insurance" on the possibility of default of some defined set of "reference" securities—based on cash assets. The insurance-buying "counterparties" may own the "reference" securities and be managing the risk of their default, or may be speculators who've calculated that the securities will default.

The ISDA Master Agreement, published by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, is the most commonly used master service agreement for OTC derivatives transactions internationally. It is part of a framework of documents, designed to enable OTC derivatives to be documented fully and flexibly. The framework consists of a master agreement, a schedule, confirmations, definition booklets, and credit support documentation.

In finance, a zero coupon swap (ZCS) is an interest rate derivative (IRD). In particular it is a linear IRD, that in its specification is very similar to the much more widely traded interest rate swap (IRS).

References

  1. "Letter to Richard Gresser from September 7, 2001" (PDF). International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA). Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 December 2014.