Cindy Yoshiko Shirata | |
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![]() Shirata in 2019 | |
Born | Tokyo, Japan | December 2, 1952
Nationality | Japanese |
Alma mater | University of Tsukuba |
Known for | SAF2002 bankruptcy prediction model |
"Cindy" Yoshiko Shirata (born 2 December 1952) is a Japanese accounting scholar who specialized in corporate bankruptcy prediction. She is best known for her SAF2002 bankruptcy prediction model. [1] Her bankruptcy prediction model has been used by major banks and rating companies in Japan. She is considered one of the most well-known experts to develop bankruptcy prediction models in Japan. [2]
After graduating from high school, Shirata first worked for Japan Airlines (JAL) as a cabin attendant in the 1970s. She then worked as an assistant to the Software Engineering Manager of Pr1me Computer Japan, and an advisor to the President of Spalding Japan, and as advisor to the vice-president of Teikoku Data Bank. Subsequently, she worked as a Managing Associate of Coopers and Lybrand Japan Co., Ltd. [3]
Shirata graduated from the Doctoral Program in Management and Public Policy, University of Tsukuba. In 1994 she was awarded a Master of Business Administration (MBA) and in March 1999, a Doctor of Philosophy in Business Administration (DBA).
Shirata started teaching in 1995 as a part-time lecturer at University of Tsukuba, at Tsukuba College of Technology Japan and at Chuo Commerce College, Chuo University. From 1996 until 2005 she has been a part-time teacher at Ryutsu Keizai University. From 1996 to 2001 she was associate professor of accounting, Tsukuba College of Technology Japan and from 2001 until 2005 Professor of Accounting at Nihon University College of Economics. From 2005 to 2007 she was Professor of Accounting, Graduate School of Management Of Technology, at Shibaura Institute of Technology. From 2007 to 2014, she was Professor of Accounting, Graduate School of Business Sciences, University of Tsukuba Tokyo Campus. She is now the Specially Appointed Professor of Tokyo International University and also visiting professor of accounting at Toyo University.
Shirata has also been a visiting professor at various universities, such as the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Germany, Sheffield University Management School, University of Sheffield, U.K., and visiting researcher at The Research Institute for Innovation Management, Hosei University, Japan. [4]
From 2006 to 2014, Shirata was a council member of the Science Council of Japan, nominated by the prime minister of Japan. She was also a secretary general of Science Council of Asia from 2011 to 2014. [5]
At present, she holds various positions such as:
On March 9, 2010, Dr. Shirata won the Best Faculty Member in 2009 Award from the University of Tsukuba. [11]
On June 16, 2017, she was named a Lifetime Achiever by Marquis Who's Who endorsing her as a leader in the accounting education industry. [12]
In 2003, Dr. Shirata introduced the SAF2002 bankruptcy prediction model. [13] The acronym SAF stands for Simple Analysis of Failure. The SAF2002 model was developed by analyzing the financial data of 1,436 bankrupt companies and 3,434 non-bankrupt companies extracted by a systematic sampling method from 107,034 companies. The variables for the model were selected by using a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) type of decision tree learning approach to analyze the financial data of Japanese companies that entered bankruptcy between 1992 and 2001. The four variables of the model that the CART approach identified are:
Retained Earnings to Total Liabilities and Owners’ Equity,
Net Income Before Tax to Total Liabilities and Owners’ Equity,
Inventory Turnover Period, and
Interest Expenses to Sales.
Based on a linear model, which exhibited the most stable and discriminant results, the model's SAF value for each firm is based on the following equation:
A SAF value of 0.7 or below quickly raises a firm's bankruptcy risk.
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